2026年4月30日 美国东部时间晚上9:16 / 福克斯新闻
拉斯·延森警告称，由于封锁期间农民买不起化肥，贫困国家面临收成短缺
作者：艾玛·巴西，福克斯新闻
分析师警告，随着食品价格上涨、脆弱的供应链在霍尔木兹海峡危机期间承受重压，全球饥荒担忧日益加剧，这场危机可能引发旷日持久的苏伊士级八年中断。
冲突进入第62天之际，美国持续对进出伊朗港口的船只实施海上封锁，而伊朗则持续有效封锁霍尔木兹海峡。
“最好的情况是，美伊双方在未来几周内达成协议，海峡重新开放，”维斯普奇海事公司首席执行官兼合伙人拉斯·延森告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。
“而且这项协议必须能让伊朗足够满意，确保他们不会突然再次封锁海峡。”
航空公司或因伊朗紧张局势推高燃油成本而削减航班计划，专家警告
2026年4月22日，一艘货轮在波斯加尔驶向霍尔木兹海峡。（美联社照片）
“即便如此，供应链恢复正常仍需数月时间。”
唐纳德·特朗普总统4月21日宣布，将推迟对伊朗的新一轮空袭，直至伊朗提出长期和平方案，这实际上将为期14天的停火无限期延长。
特朗普表示，美国对伊朗港口的封锁已见成效，敦促德黑兰“就此放弃”，这条航道的紧张局势不断升级。
“最坏的情况，我们可以看看1967年至1975年苏伊士运河长达8年的封锁，”延森说。
以色列官员 reportedly警告 伊朗弹道导弹或触发针对德黑兰的单独军事行动
2023年12月21日，SKS多伊尔号原油油轮在埃及苏伊士向伊斯梅利亚方向行驶，此前袭击事件扰乱全球贸易航线，红海油轮运输量大幅下降。（Stringer/彭博社）
“尽管苏伊士运河对全球经济至关重要，但在那8年里，人们始终无法重新开放运河，”他说。
1967年阿以冲突后，苏伊士运河于1967年至1975年关闭，此后多次遭遇中断，包括2023年以来的红海袭击事件，这些事件推高了保险成本，形成了“影子封锁”并抑制了航运量。
延森表示，对于霍尔木兹海峡局势而言，作为农业生产核心的化肥是最关键的因素，任何持续中断都可能迅速波及全球粮食系统。
“化肥是最重要的元素。全球海运化肥的30%来自波斯湾地区，”延森说。“化肥价格已经在快速上涨，”他警告道。
伊朗向霍尔木兹海峡发射实弹，特朗普特使抵达参加核谈判
2026年4月8日，美伊双方实施为期两周的临时停火期间，一艘船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。（沙迪·阿拉萨尔/阿纳多卢通讯社/盖蒂图片社）
“在富裕国家，这意味着收获季的食品价格会上涨；而在贫困国家，这意味着农民眼下买不起化肥，”延森补充道。
“这将导致本季晚些时候的收成减少，极度贫困国家的食品价格会快速上涨。这种情况会增加饥荒和冲突的风险。”
截至周四，美伊之间的外交努力依然脆弱，几乎没有取得进展的迹象。
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据报道，德黑兰市中心革命广场的一栋建筑上悬挂着巨型横幅，上书“霍尔木兹海峡将持续封锁；整个波斯湾都是我们的狩猎场”。
“货轮不再通行的原因很简单，商业公司不愿看到船员可能被杀，”延森补充道。
艾玛·巴西是福克斯新闻数字频道突发新闻撰稿人。加入福克斯新闻前，她曾在《每日电讯报》美国夜班团队工作，负责过国际、政治、新闻、体育和文化等多个版块。
Global famine fears rise as Hormuz crisis threatens ‘eight-year,’ Suez-scale disruption
April 30, 2026 9:16pm EDT / Fox News
Lars Jensen warns poor countries face harvest shortfalls because farmers cannot afford fertilizer during the blockade
By Emma Bussey, Fox News
Analysts warn global famine fears are rising as food prices climb and fragile supply chains are strained during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, raising the risk of a prolonged, Suez-scale, eight-year disruption.
As the conflict entered Day 62, the U.S. maintained its naval blockade of traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, while Iran continued to effectively close the Strait.
“Best case, there is an agreement between the U.S. and Iran within the next few weeks, and the Strait reopens,” Lars Jensen, CEO and partner at Vespucci Maritime, told Fox News Digital.
“And it has to be a deal where there is trust that Iran is sufficiently satisfied with the deal such that they do not suddenly close the strait again.
AIRLINES MAY CUT FLIGHT SCHEDULES AS IRAN TENSIONS DRIVE UP FUEL COSTS, EXPERTS WARN
A cargo ship sails in the Persian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz April 22, 2026.(AP Photo)
“Even in that case, it will still take months for the supply chains to revert back to normality.”
President Donald Trump announced April 21 he would delay renewed strikes on Iran until it presents a proposal for long-term peace, effectively extending a 14-day ceasefire indefinitely.
Trump said Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports has been effective, urging Tehran to “just give up” as tensions escalate over the waterway.
“Worst case, we can look at the eight-year closure of the Suez Canal from 1967 to 1975,” Jensen said.
ISRAELI OFFICIALS REPORTEDLY WARN IRAN’S BALLISTIC MISSILES COULD TRIGGER SOLO MILITARY ACTION AGAINST TEHRAN
The SKS Doyles crude oil tanker moves along the Suez Canal towards Ismailia in Suez, Egypt, on Dec. 21, 2023, amid a sharp decline in tanker traffic through the Red Sea due to attacks disrupting global trade routes.(Stringer/Bloomberg)
“Despite its importance to the global economy, it proved impossible to reopen the canal for those eight years,” he said.
The Suez Canal, shut from 1967 to 1975 after the Arab-Israeli conflict, has faced recurring disruption, including Red Sea attacks since 2023,driving up insurance costs, creating a “shadow blockade” and curbing traffic.
For Hormuz, Jensen says fertilizer, which is central to agricultural production, is the most critical factor, and any sustained disruption could quickly ripple through global food systems.
“Fertilizer is the most important element. Thirty percent of the world’s seaborne fertilizer comes from the Persian Gulf,” Jensen said. “Fertilizer prices are already rising fast,” he warned.
IRAN FIRES LIVE MISSILES INTO STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS TRUMP ENVOYS ARRIVE FOR NUCLEAR TALKS
A ship is seen passing through the Strait of Hormuz during a two-week temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran on April 8, 2026.(Shady Alassar/Anadolu/Getty Images)
“In wealthy countries, it means more expensive food come harvest season, and, in poor countries, it means that farmers right now cannot afford fertilizer,” Jensen added.
“This will lead to the harvest being lower later in the season, leading to rapid increases in food prices in very poor countries. And such a situation increases the risk of famine and conflict.”
Diplomatic efforts remained fragile between the U.S. and Iran as of Thursday, with limited signs of progress.
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According to reports, a giant banner hangs on a building in Tehran’s central Enqelab Square declaring, “The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed; the entire Persian Gulf is our hunting ground.”
“Cargo vessels are not going through for the simple reason that commercial companies do not want to see their seafarers potentially killed,” Jensen added.
Emma Bussey is a breaking news writer for Fox News Digital. Before joining Fox, she worked at The Telegraph with the U.S. overnight team, across desks including foreign, politics, news, sport and culture.
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