2026年4月28日 美国东部时间05:00:16 / 福克斯新闻
分析师表示，伊朗证明了自己比华盛顿更能承受压力，而华盛顿未能将压力转化为实际成果
作者：摩根·菲利普斯 福克斯新闻
发布于2026年4月28日 美国东部时间上午5:00
鲁比奥警告伊朗：美国不会容忍对全球水道的威胁
在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普取消赴巴基斯坦外交使团的决定据称迫使伊朗提出“更优厚”的提议后，国务卿马可·鲁比奥警告称，不能允许伊朗“正常化”对国际水道的控制。
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经过两个月的冲突，无论是致命的空袭行动还是对伊朗出口的封锁，都未能迫使德黑兰做出特朗普政府寻求的让步。
这场行动在最近几周有所升级，目标直指伊朗的石油出口和金融网络，同时海军封锁扰乱了霍尔木兹海峡的航运——这是全球能源流动的关键动脉。美国官员辩称，军事压力与经济孤立的结合旨在削弱伊朗的实力，迫使它以更有利的条件回到谈判桌前。
尽管美国已经击毙了伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊以及数十名高级军事和政治人物，但该政权本身依然稳固。他的儿子莫赫塔巴·哈梅内伊被选定为接班人，领导层依然坚定地奉行强硬路线。
前国务院中东谈判代表、卡内基国际和平基金会研究员亚伦·戴维·米勒表示，本届政府可能误判了它将面对的谈判对手类型。
霍尔木兹海峡封锁持续，尽管特朗普宣布停火，伊朗仍暂停石油运输
“特朗普想要的是伊朗式的德尔西·罗德里格斯，”他告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。“更有可能的是，他最终会迎来一个伊朗版的金正恩。”
这场行动在最近几周有所升级，目标直指伊朗的石油出口和金融网络，同时海军封锁扰乱了霍尔木兹海峡的航运——这是全球能源流动的关键动脉。（美国中央司令部）
他对在当前伊朗政权掌权的情况下取得决定性胜利表示怀疑。
“而且我们没有能力推翻这个政权。”
这场对峙日益成为一场考验：美国的压力能否转化为政治让步，还是会通过变通办法、制度韧性和相互制约因素而被消解。
分析师表示，到目前为止，伊朗已经证明自己比华盛顿更有能力承受和转移压力，而华盛顿未能将压力转化为持久的成果。
周一，伊朗提出一项提案，愿意重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以换取解除封锁，同时推迟就更具争议的问题进行谈判。
但分析师警告称，此类提议并未触及核心争端，甚至可能对双方有着不同的含义。
“伊朗所说的开放海峡，和特朗普所说的，可能是两码事，”米勒说。
对峙的核心是伊朗的核计划，双方在这一问题上的分歧依然巨大。特朗普政府推动伊朗彻底消除铀浓缩能力，而伊朗坚称浓缩铀是一项主权权利，不容谈判——这几乎没有妥协的空间。
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美国中央司令部分享了伊朗战争期间针对飞机的打击画面。（美国中央司令部 X账号）
尽管双方都在探索更有限的措施以缓解当前紧张局势，但这一分歧仍在阻碍达成更广泛的协议。
特朗普警告：美国“时刻准备着”摧毁伊朗“皇冠上的明珠”“只要我们愿意”
“几乎难以想象，本届政府和伊朗领导层愿意做出让步，让本届政府能带着胜利全身而退，”米勒说。
“伊朗愿意做出让步，但特朗普想要的是投降，”昆西负责任治国研究所执行副总裁特里塔·帕尔西说。“除非你击败了这个国家，否则你不可能让它投降。”
伊朗并未在压力下屈服，而是大多采取了适应策略。
尽管面临封锁，伊朗仍继续通过变通方式运输至少部分石油，包括使用受制裁船只、小型港口和改道运输策略，尽管整体出口受到了压力。
这些努力在最近几周有所扩大。有报道称，伊朗正在探索陆路运输，包括可能向中国的铁路出口，同时船只越来越多地通过伊朗领海或受控航运走廊改道以绕过限制。
“美国成功切断了他们的一条通道，但他们正缓慢但肯定地找到变通办法，”帕尔西说。
这场行动的财务影响巨大，尽管分布不均。分析师的估计各不相同，但一些分析师认为，封锁给伊朗造成的损失约为每天4亿美元，主要源于石油出口中断和硬通货获取渠道减少。
与此同时，伊朗并未被完全切断供应。近几个月来，该国继续创造数十亿美元的石油收入，这既凸显了压力的规模，也凸显了压力的局限性。
尽管石油收入持续下滑会给政府的官方预算带来压力，并迫使削减公共开支，但该国最强大的机构——伊斯兰革命卫队——通过自己的经济网络运作，包括走私路线和跨境贸易。
这使得政权的关键部门即使在严厉制裁下仍能继续运转，这意味着经济痛苦往往分配不均——平民先受到冲击，而国家的强制机器并未被削弱。
“特朗普想要的是伊朗式的德尔西·罗德里格斯，更有可能的是，他最终会迎来一个伊朗版的金正恩，”亚伦·戴维·米勒说道。（朱莉娅·德马雷·尼基辛/美联社）
即使是直接破坏伊朗领导层稳定的尝试，也未能从根本上改变这种局面。在冲突早期，美国和以色列的行动击毙了哈梅内伊以及数十名高级军事和政治人物。
但该政权依然稳固，权力集中在与强硬路线立场一致的剩余政治和安全精英手中。
伊朗能维持这种态势多久仍不确定。米勒表示，长期封锁最终可能迫使伊朗出现转折点——但前提是华盛顿愿意坚持下去。
“如果政府准备好持续六个月维持这场封锁，我认为他们可能能够摧毁伊朗经济，”米勒说。
但他警告称，这样的时间线很难预测，即使是美国情报机构也无法清楚地知道经济压力何时会转化为政治让步。
这种不确定性提出了一个更广泛的问题：该战略的可持续性如何。尽管伊朗领导层可能愿意承受巨大的经济痛苦，但美国也面临自身的制约因素，包括军事资源可能紧张以及全球能源市场面临的日益增长的风险。
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“没有中期选举，没有初选，伊朗没有最后期限，”米勒说。“但特朗普有最后期限。”
白宫未回应置评请求。
就目前而言，双方似乎都在等待对方失去维持对峙的政治意愿，全球能源市场则夹在中间。
Trump squeezes Iran with maximum pressure — why it hasn’t forced a breakthrough
2026-04-28 05:00:16 EDT / Fox News
Analysts say Iran has proven more capable of absorbing pressure than Washington has been able to convert it into gains
By Morgan Phillips Fox News
Published April 28, 2026 5:00am EDT
Rubio WARNS Iran: US won’t tolerate threats to global waterways
Sec. of State Marco Rubio warned that the regime cannot be allowed to ‘normalize’ control over international waterways after President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel a diplomatic mission to Pakistan reportedly forced a ‘better’ offer from Iran.
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After two months of conflict, neither a deadly bombing campaign nor a blockade on Iranian exports has forced Tehran to make the concessions the Trump administration is seeking.
The campaign has intensified in recent weeks, targeting Iran’s oil exports and financial networks while a naval blockade has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy flows. U.S. officials argue the combination of military pressure and economic isolation is intended to weaken Iran’s capabilities and force it back to the negotiating table on more favorable terms.
While the U.S. has killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of top military and political figures, the regime itself remains intact. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was selected to succeed him, and leadership remains firmly hardline.
Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Middle East negotiator and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, said the administration may have misjudged the type of negotiating partner it would face.
HORMUZ CHOKE POINT PERSISTS AS IRAN HALTS OIL TRAFFIC DESPITE TRUMP CEASEFIRE
“Trump was looking for an Iranian Delcy Rodriguez,” he told Fox News Digital. “More likely, he’s going to end up with an Iranian Kim Jong Un.”
The campaign has intensified in recent weeks, targeting Iran’s oil exports and financial networks while a naval blockade has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy flows.(CENTCOM)
He expressed doubt that any decisive victory was possible while the current Iranian regime remained in power.
“And we do not have the capacity to remove the regime.”
The standoff increasingly has become a test of whether U.S. pressure can be converted into political concessions — or whether it is instead being diluted through workarounds, institutional resilience and competing constraints.
So far, analysts say, Iran has proven more capable of absorbing and rerouting pressure than Washington has been able to translate it into durable gains.
On Monday, Iran floated a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for relief from the blockade, while deferring negotiations on more contentious issues.
But analysts caution that such proposals do not address the core dispute and may not even mean the same thing to both sides.
“What the Iranians mean by opening the straits, and what Trump means, may be two different sorts of things,” Miller said.
At the center of the standoff is Iran’s nuclear program, where the gap between the two sides remains wide. The Trump administration has pushed for Iran to eliminate its uranium enrichment capability entirely, while Iran insists that enrichment is a sovereign right and non-negotiable — leaving little room for compromise.
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CENTCOM shared footage of strikes against airplanes amid the Iran war.(U.S. Central Command on X)
That divide continues to block a broader agreement, even as both sides explore more limited steps to reduce immediate tensions.
US ‘LOCKED AND LOADED’ TO DESTROY IRAN’S ‘CROWN JEWEL’ ‘IF WE WANT,’ TRUMP WARNS
“It’s almost unimaginable that this administration and the Iranian leadership are willing to make the kinds of concessions that would allow this administration to walk away with a win,” Miller said.
“Iranians are willing to give concessions, but Trump is looking for capitulation,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft think tank. “And you can’t get a country to capitulate unless you have defeated them.”
Instead of folding under pressure, Iran largely has responded by adapting.
Despite the blockade, Iran has continued to move at least some oil through workaround methods, including sanctioned vessels, smaller ports and alternative routing strategies, even as overall exports have come under strain.
Those efforts have expanded in recent weeks. Reports indicate Iran is exploring overland shipments, including potential rail exports to China, while vessels have increasingly rerouted through Iranian territorial waters or controlled shipping corridors to bypass restrictions.
“The United States successfully closes off one avenue for them, and slowly, but surely, they are finding workarounds,” Parsi said.
The financial impact of the campaign has been significant, even if uneven. Estimates vary, but some analysts put Iran’s potential losses from the blockade at roughly $400 million per day, largely driven by disrupted oil exports and reduced access to hard currency.
At the same time, Iran has not been fully cut off. The country has continued to generate billions in oil revenue in recent months, underscoring both the scale of the pressure and its limits.
While a sustained drop in oil revenue would strain the government’s official budget and force cuts to public spending, the country’s most powerful institution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, operates through its own economic networks, including smuggling routes and cross-border trade.
That allows key parts of the regime to continue functioning even under heavy sanctions, meaning economic pain often falls unevenly — hitting civilians before it weakens the state’s coercive apparatus.
“Trump was looking for an Iranian Delcy Rodriguez. More likely, he’s going to end up with an Iranian Kim Jong Un,” said Aaron David Miller.(Julia Demaree Nikhinson/The Associated Press)
Even attempts to directly destabilize Iran’s leadership have not fundamentally altered that dynamic. U.S. and Israeli operations earlier in the conflict killed Khamenei along with dozens of senior military and political figures.
Yet the regime has remained intact, with power consolidating among remaining political and security elites aligned with hardline positions.
How long Iran can sustain that posture remains uncertain. Miller said a prolonged blockade could eventually force a breaking point — but only if Washington is willing to maintain it.
“If the administration is prepared for six months to keep up this blockade, I think they could probably break the Iranian economy,” Miller said.
But he cautioned that such timelines are difficult to predict and that even U.S. intelligence lacks a clear picture of when economic pressure might translate into political concessions.
That uncertainty raises a broader question about the sustainability of the strategy. While Iran’s leadership may be willing to absorb significant economic pain, the U.S. faces its own constraints, including potential strain on military resources and growing risks to global energy markets.
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“There are no midterms. There are no primaries. There are no sell-by dates for Iran,” Miller said. “And Trump has a sell-by date.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
For now, both sides appear to be waiting for the other to lose the political will to sustain the standoff, with global energy markets caught in the middle.
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