2026-04-26T10:32:51-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
以下是2026年4月26日在《与玛格丽特·布伦南面对面》节目中播出的对雪佛龙董事长兼CEO迈克·沃尔思的采访实录。
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玛格丽特·布伦南: 现在我们邀请到了雪佛龙董事长兼CEO迈克·沃尔思。欢迎来到《面对国家》节目。
迈克·沃尔思: 谢谢你,玛格丽特。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 很高兴你能来,尤其是在当下这个时刻。我们似乎正身处一场全球能源危机之中。国际能源署署长曾表示,如果将1973年阿拉伯石油禁运、1979年伊朗石油危机,以及2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的局势三者结合起来,都比不上我们当前正在经历的这场危机的规模。你会这么认为吗?
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,我的理解是,能源系统已经失去了惊人的灵活性。全球经济每天消耗约1亿桶石油,每桶为42加仑。其中约20%的运输需要通过霍尔木兹海峡,而这一通道目前已遭到严重破坏。通常情况下,能源系统都有“减震器”:我们有设施储罐中的库存,有海上船舶上的库存,还有战略石油储备。但随着近期各类事件的发展,所有这些库存都在过去几个月里被消耗殆尽。这导致这些减震器的效果大打折扣。以往遇到供应中断时,我们可以通过调配这些库存来应对,价格波动也会因此得到抑制;而当这些减震器被撤走后,冲击就会更直接地传导出来。所以我认为,他所指的就是我们正处于一个全球供应大幅缩减的时期,我们正面临着价格上涨和市场波动的压力,这种情况已经显现,而且可能还会持续下去。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 可能还会持续下去,因为目前尚不清楚能否实现停火或结束战争。我的意思是,如果能通过谈判真正结束战争,油价是否会回落?还是说只要达成停火协议就能缓解压力?
迈克·沃尔思: 真正需要的是霍尔木兹海峡的航运恢复畅通。我们不可能从全球能源系统中抽走20%的供应量,尽管有部分运力通过红海绕道运输,但仍有相当数量的全球能源供应无法正常流通——而这才是关键所在:恢复航运畅通。这样市场才能开始重建库存,才能将产品运送到需要的地方,缓解部分供应压力。但这一切都需要时间。当今世界,船舶、管道以及将货物运往全球各地市场的物流体系都需要调整。这就是为什么我认为这种压力还会持续一段时间。即便今天海峡就能恢复通航,要将物资运送到需要的地方、让系统恢复正常运转,也需要一定的时间。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 那么霍尔木兹海峡的布雷情况有多严重?你们能获取情报分析师的数据。通过该海峡的风险有多高?
迈克·沃尔思: 我不知道——我无法量化海峡的布雷密度,但显然伊朗有能力袭击途经该海峡的船只。我们已经目睹过此类事件,虽然不是每天都发生,但确实时有发生。他们的手段不只是水雷,还有其他攻击方式。我们多年来一直在该区域航行,也见识过这些能力。我认为从军事角度应对这一局面非常困难,因为他们已经做好了相关准备,而且也展示了使用这些能力的实力。因此,总统和本届政府将此作为谈判的重点内容,我们当然希望他们能取得成功。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 但问题在于,他们甚至不知道该与谁进行谈判。总统也曾表示,这是当前的难题之一,无法确定伊朗真正的决策者是谁。不过我们看到《华盛顿邮报》的报道称,五角大楼通知国会议员,若要在战后清理海峡,大约需要六个月时间。作为一名企业CEO,你需要看到哪些情况,才会放心派遣船只通过霍尔木兹海峡?
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,我们必须确信船上人员的安全、货物的安全,并且能够以极高的信心完成航行。我们会与军方当局、美国海军合作进行评估。当然,其他许多航运公司和船东也面临着同样的问题。我没看过你提到的那份报告,但我们一直在与美国海军以及全球其他军事组织密切合作,确保全球船舶的航行安全。所以这是我们会与这类专家共同做出的决策。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 曾有一位能源部长做客本节目,他表示首批船只很可能会有海军护航。你是否希望如此?比如由军舰护航通过海峡?
迈克·沃尔思: 当然,在该地区过去发生冲突时,我们也曾见过海军护航的情况,我们的船只也曾被护航通过海峡。我认为在初期阶段,很可能会出现海军护航的情况,因为风险不仅来自海峡内布设的水雷,还可能来自陆地的其他形式的威胁。因此,为首批过境船只配备海军护航,相比没有任何防御措施的情况,能带来更高的安全保障。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 你只是需要有信心能够安全通过,不会遭到袭击,并且能够合理评估相关风险,就目前而言——
迈克·沃尔思: 是的,对我们来说,评估风险——
玛格丽特·布伦南: 你是说这类风险一直都存在。
迈克·沃尔思: 风险一直都存在。所以对我们来说,风险评估并非问题所在。我们最优先考虑的是人员的安全、资产的安全以及环境保护。我们真正担心的是可能出现人员伤亡、船只受损或原油泄漏的情况。风险定价、保险等相关事宜都可以得到妥善处理。真正决定我们决策的,是人员的安全、资产的保护以及环境的安全。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 不过,说到价格,回到战争爆发前的水平,问题不仅仅出在海峡方面。据ClearView能源的数据,中东地区有12家炼油厂遭到导弹或无人机袭击,基础设施本身已遭到破坏。那么恢复生产又需要多长时间?
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,在某些情况下需要数周、数月,甚至数年。有些油田因为没有储存原油的空间而被迫关停。这些油田不像你家里的水龙头那样可以随时开关。它们是复杂的油藏,涉及大量地下动态变化,因此必须谨慎地重新启动生产。上游、中游和下游的基础设施,比如炼油厂,都遭到了破坏。相关各方正在尽其所能进行修复。有些修复工作相对简单,有些则需要数年时间。部分受损的液化天然气设施,其所需更换设备的供应链可能需要数年才能完成补货。因此我认为,产能恢复将是渐进式的,具体取决于受损情况的修复速度。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 你认为这次危机为何如此出人意料?我们难道没有预料到该地区的无人机会如此有效,或是伊朗能够成功封锁霍尔木兹海峡吗?
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,这个问题或许最好由其他人来回答。我不知道当时人们的预期是什么,也不清楚这些预期与现实的对比情况。当然,多数报道都显示,伊朗一直在为类似事件做准备。该地区的其他国家也具备防御能力。但当冲突爆发时,其发展过程往往非常不可预测。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 的确如此。说到油价,我们看到市场上的情况是一回事,交易员们在进行投机交易。但美国民众关注的是他们给汽车加油时的成本。什么时候油价才能回到2月28日冲突爆发前的水平?
迈克·沃尔思: 是的,我在这个行业工作了40多年,学到的一件事就是,预测油价极其困难。即便在正常时期,市场也可能会出乎你的意料。更何况现在并非正常时期。影响供应的因素非常反常,这些因素可能会传导至整个经济,甚至可能减缓需求,我认为这种可能性正在增加——而且——
玛格丽特·布伦南: 你是说,由于油价上涨,人们会减少汽油使用。
迈克·沃尔思: 在世界某些地区确实如此,而且不仅仅是汽油。在南亚,用于烹饪的液化石油气价格上涨;在欧洲,航空燃油供应紧张。多种产品的供应都变得极为短缺。人们的行为会出现两种变化:其一,人们会减少能源使用;其二,人们会囤积能源。上世纪70年代,我记得美国实行石油禁运期间,我家会尽可能把汽车油箱加满。通常人们加油时只会加半箱或四分之一箱。所以你会看到人们会留存更多的燃油储备,而不是像往常那样。他们可能会减少使用量。因此,在如此动态的市场中,预测需求和供应都非常困难。我认为关键在于,正如我之前所说,系统中的“减震器”正在被耗尽,这意味着价格面临上行压力,因为供应日益紧张,补充供应的难度也越来越大,这也增加了市场波动的可能性。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 所以,比如说,我们无法断言油价已经见顶。
迈克·沃尔思: 我认为很难下定论,因为你需要做出诸多假设,而这取决于你的假设前提。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 你提到航空燃油的存储期不长,对吧?必须快速补充库存。我们现在看到机场出现航空燃油短缺的情况。实际情况如何?供应情况怎样?这对计划出行的美国民众意味着什么?
迈克·沃尔思: 是的,冲突爆发前,全球某些地区的航空燃油库存就处于季节性较低水平。中东地区的炼油厂是航空燃油的重要出口国,尤其是向欧洲出口,欧洲75%的进口航空燃油都来自这些炼油厂。而目前这些供应无法正常运输。因此,欧洲、亚洲的航空燃油供应正迅速收紧,航空公司也纷纷宣布调整航班计划。我们已经看到机票价格上涨。我认为这是最先被广泛感受到的领域之一。我们已经看到汽油价格出现了一定的上涨压力,而航空领域显然会在未来几周内情况进一步恶化。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 未来几周情况会更糟,但这存在滞后效应。你的意思是,如果你打算购买前往欧洲的机票,即便几个月后出行,也可能需要支付高得多的费用。
迈克·沃尔思: 是的,我无法预测航空公司会如何定价他们的产品,但他们面临的价格上涨压力和市场供应紧张状况,很可能会导致进一步优化航线。航班数量可能会比原本计划的更少,飞机的客座率可能会比平时更高。没错,机票价格也可能会上涨。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 所以当你听到财政部长或能源部长说油价会回到每加仑3美元,而且未来几个月内就会回落。你是说我们掌握的信息不足以做出明确的预测。这是我从你这里听到的意思。
迈克·沃尔思: 是的。有一句老话我很认同:我可以告诉你油价是多少,但我无法告诉你什么时候会是这个价格。预测这类事情非常困难。因为市场是动态的,它们会对我们未曾预料到的因素做出反应。而一个现实是,当库存水平降低时,这些“减震器”的效果就会大打折扣。因此我认为这种压力还会持续一段时间。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 所以这场冲突或当前的僵局持续的时间越长,市场受到的影响就会越持久。
迈克·沃尔思: 我认为是的,这可能会延长市场效应的持续时间。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 所以总统在过去一周发布了五项不同的备忘录,援引《国防生产法案》,涉及石油、天然气和其他能源基础设施。理论上,这将允许他增加石油产量。你能在一瞬间就开启生产吗?这对你来说有什么意义?
迈克·沃尔思: 是的,你不可能在一瞬间就开启生产。这需要工程规划、供应链协调、合同签订以及人员调配和动员。将新的产能投入市场需要时间。我们公司去年在美国的产量创下纪录,达到每日200万桶,其中二叠纪盆地的产量为每日100万桶。今年我们还将继续增长7%至10%。所以我们已经在制定计划,向市场供应更多的石油——
玛格丽特·布伦南: 这些产量来自北达科他州和美国其他地区吗?
迈克·沃尔思: 北达科他州,还有美国以外的其他一些地区。我们确实在投资以扩大产能,但这需要前置时间,包括规划和执行阶段。至于《国防生产法案》——我认为政府的意图与他们更广泛的、既有的目标一致,比如鼓励为人工智能等领域建设发电设施的投资。所以我不确定它仅仅是为了应对当前中东地区的局势,更像是美国为鼓励本国能源基础设施投资这一 broader 目标的一部分。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 但白宫一直在敦促能源公司提高产量,以帮助缓解油价压力。你们目前面临多大的压力?
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,在供应短缺的时候,我们当然希望尽可能多地向市场供应石油。本届政府已经采取了一些我认为非常积极的行动。从战略石油储备中释放原油是有帮助的。还有一项名为《琼斯法案》的法规,对美国国内航运做出了限制,目前该法案的部分限制已被解除,这提供了更多的灵活性,我们也正在利用这一点,将供应从富余地区运往供应紧张的地区。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 这项法案就像是1920年代的法律,要求美国船只往返美国港口。
迈克·沃尔思: 必须是在美国造船厂建造、由美国海员操作的船只。而且这类船只的数量有限,并且一直处于满负荷运转状态。因此,要增加额外的航运航程,需要引入其他航运资源,而豁免《琼斯法案》正好做到了这一点。我们一直在将美国墨西哥湾沿岸的原油和成品油运往西海岸,以供应阿拉斯加、夏威夷和加州。这些都是短期可行的有效举措,能够在需要的地方增加供应。长期解决方案则是制定政策,鼓励对基础设施进行持续稳定的投资,以增加供应,最终建立一个更具韧性的能源系统。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 但要做到这一点,你需要得到国会的支持。你需要国会推进审批改革,对吗?
迈克·沃尔思: 我认为审批改革是推动各类投资的关键助力,包括风能、太阳能、核能、地热能以及传统的石油和天然气能源。如今在美国,叫停项目很容易,但要获得建设许可,并在随后的法律诉讼中顺利通过审查,则非常困难。国会目前正在开展相关工作,已经起草了一些不错的法案并正在讨论中,我们非常支持审批改革,这种改革既要确保适当的环境保护和监督,也要有合理的法律条款,同时还要允许美国为未来的各类基础设施建设进行投资。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 但你还需要国会采取行动,拿出具体方案。我的意思是,目前国会连最基本的拨款协议都难以达成。你还指望他们制定新的法律?最近他们在这方面的进展并不多。
迈克·沃尔思: 目前国会席位分布非常均衡,推动立法一直很困难。但我认为这件事对经济至关重要,而且存在两党支持的基础,所以我仍然乐观地认为能够取得进展。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 你有没有得到领导层的承诺,说他们会因为当前的紧急情况而推进这项改革?
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,我们看到众议员韦斯特曼、参议员李一直在推动此事。他们一直在与跨党派的同事合作,众议院已经提出了相关法案,目前正在参议院讨论中。我无法预测这个进程的结果,但我认为,这件事对美国而言至关重要,理应取得成功。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 不过,这也不是快速解决方案,对吧?
迈克·沃尔思: 没错,这是持久的长期解决方案的一部分。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 众所周知,能源行业与上一届政府关系紧张,反之亦然。在本届政府任期内,你和其他CEO们是否会致电白宫,告诉他们过于乐观了?你们是否会向他们说明当前的压力有多大?
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,我想说的是,本届政府非常定期地与商界接触,涵盖政府的各个部门。他们寻求对话,征求意见,并且乐于沟通和听取意见,我认为这一点非常好,尤其是在当前这样的时刻。我们经常与他们就当前局势进行讨论。就在今天,我还参与了相关讨论,内容涉及我们为确保美国市场的可靠供应所做的努力。所以,是的,我们确实会定期沟通。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 但你觉得你可以坦诚地表达——
迈克·沃尔思: 当然可以。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 因为总统一直在告诉美国民众,油价并没有那么高。他的内阁成员也告诉民众,油价很快就会回落。而你却告诉我,这完全不确定。
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,没错,我是说,目前风险总体偏向上行——
玛格丽特·布伦南: 而他们也清楚这一点。
迈克·沃尔思: 我们所能做的,就是确保霍尔木兹海峡的航运恢复畅通,同时推行相关政策——我认为本届政府确实将此作为优先事项,继续鼓励对本国经济基础设施的投资。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 国际货币基金组织总裁最近告诉我们,这场危机可能会持续到2026年。你认为这个评估合理吗?
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,这对整个系统来说是一次重大冲击。它正在重塑贸易流向和物流船舶的布局。整个系统目前正处于过去几周才出现的失衡状态。而当我们在未来某个时刻达成解决方案,建立新的平衡时,意味着我们需要恢复航运流量,重新启动我们之前讨论过的油田生产,重新调整船舶的位置,将其部署到最有利于保障供应的区域。这需要时间。这不像你说的那样,是可以一键切换的。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 那么你认为这场伊朗相关的冲突是否会促使投资重新聚焦于美洲半球?雪佛龙在该半球有大量业务。你认为这会是市场格局的转变吗?
迈克·沃尔思: 我认为现在下定论还为时过早。这场冲突才发生了八周。我们的投资周期需要数年才能将资产落地,而这些资产的运营周期长达数十年。因此,我们的规划周期不会对如此短期出现的情况做出反应。我认为值得关注的一个有趣问题是,在这场危机过后,能源系统将如何演变。我猜测很多方面都会出现结构性变化。其中一些可能会更侧重于半球内部的合作,一些可能会在中东地区建设基础设施,打造能够避开某些关键咽喉要道的物流路线。所以我认为,未来的能源系统可能会与我们近期所熟悉的系统有所不同。现在就充满信心地预测其具体形态还为时过早。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 那么在美洲半球,委内瑞拉方面,雪佛龙是该国规模最大的长期美国投资方之一。委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的石油储量。能源部长曾告诉我们,在马杜罗下台后,美国将至少参与一年,甚至两年,之后才会将主权完全交还给委内瑞拉政府。这一计划的具体内容是什么?你认为美国政府会在委内瑞拉停留多久,以帮助改变其能源政策?
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,这或许也最好由其他人来回答。我认为——
玛格丽特·布伦南: 但你认为需要发生什么才能推动局面改善?
迈克·沃尔思: 嗯,委内瑞拉新的临时总统已经对其 hydrocarbon 法律进行了修订,修改了外国公司在该国投资的条款。这一举措朝着积极的方向发展,但仍有完善的空间。目前的条款可能不足以吸引理想中的投资水平。所以已经取得了一些进展。我认为美国已经重新开放了驻委内瑞拉大使馆,现在有一些人员在当地与委内瑞拉政府定期互动。委内瑞拉政府似乎也非常欢迎美国增加在该国的投资。已有多家公司前往当地考察情况。这对委内瑞拉有利,对美国也有利。这里出产的原油类型正好适合墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂加工。我认为增加当地的产量将有助于提高美国的能源可靠性和供应水平。所以我们非常支持这种局势的发展,但目前仍处于推进过程中。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 你一定看过《华尔街日报》的那篇报道吧,其中提到一位前雪佛龙高管根据他们的报道建议美国政府,如果马杜罗政权被推翻,由上次选举中获胜的民主反对派掌权,将会陷入像伊拉克那样的泥潭。该国的石油基础设施和管理人员状况堪忧。这是否反映了雪佛龙的观点?
迈克·沃尔思: 不是的。他不是雪佛龙的员工,与我们公司也没有任何 ongoing 的合作关系。我已经多年没有和他交谈过了,他表达的任何观点都仅代表他个人,绝不代表公司的立场。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 但就目前的局势而言,我们确实看到特朗普政府采取了这样的路线:没有推动当选的反对派上台,而是让现政权继续掌权。
迈克·沃尔思: 我认为本届政府咨询了曾参与世界其他地区类似情况的人士,比如美国曾参与改变某国政府的情况——
玛格丽特·布伦南: 是的。
迈克·沃尔思: 而当时的执行方式造成了一定的不稳定,带来了一些意想不到的风险或后果。当然,正如我听鲁比奥国务卿谈到他们的应对策略时所说,这似乎很好地借鉴了过去的经验教训。所以我只能认为,他们已经审视了这类情况,并试图从中汲取经验,以避免出现类似伊拉克战争那样的意外后果。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 鲁比奥国务卿会向你咨询这类问题吗?
迈克·沃尔思: 我确实会时不时与鲁比奥国务卿交流。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 我的意思是,你了解这个目前几乎支撑着一切的能源行业。所以你会向他提供建议。我是说,回到最初的问题,你认为美国政府会在多久之后撤军?还是说美国政府会继续留在当地?
迈克·沃尔思: 这一点我不清楚。不过我想说,他们已经对流入该国经济的收入流动产生了一定影响,我认为这将得到全球出口增长的支撑,这对委内瑞拉人民是有利的。在当地,我们已经看到某些商品的价格有所下降,通货膨胀率降低,经济增长超出预期,所以我认为当地的一些局势正朝着积极的方向发展。但你提到的政府核心人员未发生变动的情况,我认为也是准确的。我也曾听鲁比奥国务卿说,他确实计划在适当的时候举行选举。所以我相信他的表态。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 是的,我们会继续报道此事。因为有些官员,比如国防部长,曾负责国内情报部门,并因侵犯人权行为遭到美国和欧洲的制裁;内政部长迪奥西达多·卡韦略,悬赏2500万美元通缉他,他曾是马杜罗的首席亲信。这些人目前仍在管理国家,需要明确这一点。而且2018年,该政府还曾扣押过雪佛龙的员工。
迈克·沃尔思: 我们确实有一些员工——
玛格丽特·布伦南: 而你们现在仍不得不与这些势力打交道。
迈克·沃尔思: 是的,你知道,在世界各地运营时,我们无法选择所在国家的政府——
玛格丽特·布伦南: 没错。
迈克·沃尔思: 我们必须跟随资源的分布。我们会对当地的安全状况进行评估,尽全力保护我们的员工和资产。但这确实具有挑战性,而且我们的业务周期很长,我们往往会比任何一个国家的特定政府或政权都更长久,包括本国政府。我们必须对自身业务采取长远眼光,努力做对所在国家人民有利的事情,因为最终我们的运营许可都是由所在国家的人民授予的。然后我们必须与现政府合作,我们的角色不是改变他们——
玛格丽特·布伦南: 是的。
迈克·沃尔思: 或是告诉他们如何治国。我们的角色是努力为所在国家的人民做正确的事,履行合同条款,以符合我们价值观和美国法律的方式开展运营。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 反对党领袖玛丽亚·科里娜·马查多在本节目中曾表示,在她看来,没人会满足于折中方案。但她说,要吸引那些可能已经逃离该国的能源行业人才回国,他们只有看到民主转型才会返回。你认为她说得对吗?你认为现在你能雇到人去委内瑞拉为你和你的公司工作吗,还是说他们仍然担心自身安全?
迈克·沃尔思: 我们在委内瑞拉有优秀的本国员工,他们留在了自己的国家,忠于自己的国家,也忠于我们努力在该国推行的价值观。不可否认,25年前,委内瑞拉的石油行业拥有一支非常有才华的劳动力队伍,他们受雇于该国的国有石油公司,其中许多人后来移居到世界其他地区,在其他国家工作,在那里建立了家庭和生活。对任何人来说,离开已经扎根的地方重返故土都是一个艰难的决定。所以我想我们会看到一些人选择回来,也可能会有其他人选择留在他们现在生活的地方。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 我们会继续关注此事。迈克·沃尔思,感谢你的见解分享。
迈克·沃尔思: 不客气。
玛格丽特·布伦南: 我们马上回来。
Transcript: Chevron CEO Mike Wirth on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” April 26, 2026
2026-04-26T10:32:51-0400 / CBS News
The following is the transcript of the interview with Chevron CEO Mike Wirth that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on April 26, 2026.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’re joined now by Chevron chairman and CEO Mike Wirth Welcome to ‘Face The Nation.’
MIKE WIRTH: Thank you, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: It’s good to have you here, particularly in this moment in time. Because it feels like we’re in this global energy shock. What we heard from the head of the International Energy Agency, he said, If you combine the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian oil crisis, and what happened around 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, if you combine all those things, that still isn’t the scope of what we are experiencing. Is that how you’d put it?
MIKE WIRTH: Well, the way I would frame it is the energy system has lost an incredible amount of flexibility. The global economy consumes about 100 million barrels of oil every day. A barrel is 42 gallons. About 20% of that moves through the Strait of Hormuz, so that’s been significantly disrupted. Normally, the energy system has shock absorbers in it, so we have inventory in tanks at facilities. We’ve got inventory on the water in ships. We’ve got inventory in strategic reserves. All of those have been pulled down over the last couple of months as these events have unfolded. And what it’s done is it’s taken those shock absorbers and made them much less effective in the system, and so disruptions normally are met by moving these inventories around, and price response can be muted as the shock absorbers are withdrawn, the shocks translate a little bit more directly. And so I think what he’s referring to is we’re in a period where there’s been significant supply taken out of the system, and we are facing this upward pressure on prices and volatility that is manifest itself thus far and likely to continue.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Likely to continue, because it’s unclear if we have a cease fire or an end to the war. I mean, if there is an actual negotiated end to the war, do prices come down, or is just a truce enough to give relief?
MIKE WIRTH: What’s really needed is for flow to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. You can’t take 20% of the energy out of the system, and some of it’s finding its way around to the Red Sea, but there’s still a substantial amount of world energy supply that is not able to flow and- and so that’s the key thing, is to restore that flow. It allows markets to begin to rebuild these inventories. It allows us to get products to where they’re needed, and to alleviate some of the pressure. But that all will take time. It’s a world where we get logistics of ships and pipelines and moving things around to markets around the world. And so that’s why I say I think it’s going to be with us for some time. Because even if the strait were to open today, getting supplies to where they’re needed and resuming the normal functioning of the system is going to take some time.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So how heavily mined is the Strait of Hormuz? Because you have intelligence analysts giving you data. How much risk is there to go through that point?
MIKE WIRTH I don’t knowI can’t quantify how heavily mined the strait is, but clearly Iran has the capability to to hit vessels as they move through the strait. We’ve seen that happen, maybe not daily, but certainly with some degree of frequency. And it’s not just mines that they have. There’s other means that have been used, and we’ve been moving ships through that part of the world for years and years, and have seen some of these capabilities. And so I think it’s very difficult militarily to deal with that, because they’ve prepared these capabilities, and I think they’ve shown the ability to exercise them. And so the president and the administration are focused on that as part of the negotiations, and we certainly hope that they’re successful with that.
MARGARET BRENNAN: If they can figure out who to negotiate with. The president says that’s part of the problem right now, not knowing who’s actually the decision maker in Iran. But we did see the Washington Post report that the Pentagon informed members of Congress that it would take approximately six months to clear out the strait, and that’s in a post combat situation. As a CEO, what do you need to see to feel confident to put a ship through the Strait of Hormuz?
MIKE WIRTH: Well, we’d have to believe that our people on the ship will be safe, the cargo will be safe, and that can be transited with with a high degree of confidence, we’ll work with the military authorities, the U.S. Navy, to- to make that assessment, and certainly many other shippers and ship owners are faced with the same- the same questions. I haven’t seen the report you referenced, but we work closely with the U.S. Navy and other military organizations around the world to ensure safe transit of ships all over the world, and so it’s a decision we would make in collaboration with those kinds of experts.
MARGARET BRENNAN: At one point, the energy secretary was on this program, and he said the first few ships would likely have a naval escort. Is that something you would want? Like warships escorting through?
MIKE WIRTH: Certainly seen naval escorts used in the past when there have been conflicts in that part of the world, we’ve had ships that have been escorted through the strait. I think in the early days, it’s very likely that that you you could see naval escorts, because I think some of the risks are not just mines that could be placed in the strait, but they could be also risks that could come from the land in other forms, and so I think having the Navy with those ships that make the first transit would provide a higher degree of confidence than if there were to be something happened, that you’d have some some measure of defense.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You just need to know with confidence that you are able to go through without getting hit, and that you can kind of adequately price that risk, at this point–
MIKE WIRTH: Yeah, for us pricing the risk–
MARGARET BRENNAN: You’re saying the risk has always existed.
MIKE WIRTH: The risk has always existed. So pricing the risk is not the issue for us. It’s the safety of our people. Our highest priority is the safety of our people, the security of our assets, protecting the environment. So the risk that you could have someone injured, or worse, that you could have a ship damaged, or you could have an oil spill, those are the things that we really concern about- the pricing of the risk, the insurance, those things are all manageable. It’s really the safety of people and the protection of the assets and the environment that will govern our decision making.
MARGARET BRENNAN: When we talk about pricing, though, and sort of going back to pre start of the war, it’s not just the strait- 12 refiners in the Middle East were hit by a missile or a drone attack, according to ClearView energy. So the infrastructure itself has been damaged. How long does it take to get production back as well?
MIKE WIRTH: Well, it’s going to take, in some cases, weeks and months, in some cases years, there have been oil fields that have been just shut in because there’s no place to store the oil. Sometimes these fields- it’s not like turning the tap on your faucet. These are complex reservoirs with a lot of subsurface dynamics, so those have to be brought back carefully. There has been damage to upstream, midstream and downstream infrastructure, like refineries. I think people are working to repair that to the extent that they can. Some of these are easier fixes than others. Some will be years. Some of the LNG facilities that have been damaged, the type of equipment that needs to be replaced has a supply chain that will require years to replace it. And so I think it will be. It will come on gradually and depending upon how quickly some of the damage can be addressed.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Why do you think this was such a surprise? Were we not anticipating in that region that the drones would be as effective as they were, or that the Iranians would be as successful shutting down the Strait of Hormuz?
MIKE WIRTH: Yeah, that’s a question that is probably best answered by others. I don’t know what was expected and how that would compare to the reality. Certainly, you know, most reports would suggest that Iran had been preparing for something like this. I think the other states in the region had their defensive capabilities. But you know when- when conflict begins, it’s- can be very unpredictable how it unfolds
MARGARET BRENNAN: Clearly. and when it comes to the price, when we look at what’s happening out there on the markets, that’s one thing, that’s traders placing bets. the American people are looking at the cost when they gas up their car. When will things return to pre February 28 and the start of this conflict?
MIKE WIRTH: Yeah, it’s one of the things I’ve learned in over 40 years in this industry, is predicting price is extremely difficult. Even in normal times, markets can surprise you. This is not a normal time. The dynamics that are affecting supply are quite unusual. The potential for that to flow through into the economy, and maybe slow demand is, I think, increasing and- and so–
MARGARET BRENNAN: People use less gas, you’re saying, because of the higher price.
MIKE WIRTH: Certain parts of the world, it’s not just gas. It’s LPG for cooking in in South Asia, it is jet fuel in Europe, a number of products are becoming very short in supply. Behavior changes in a couple of ways. One, people will use less energy. Second one is people will hoard energy. Back in the 70s, I recall during the embargo in the U.S., in my family, we would drive around with a car as full as we possibly could. Normally people drive around they’re comfortable with a half a tank or a quarter tank of gas. And so you’ll see people will hold on to supplies that otherwise they might not. They may use less. And so predicting both demand and supply in a market that’s this dynamic is very difficult. I think the key thing is, as I said before, the shock absorbers are being drained out of the system, which means there’s this upward pressure on price, because supply is getting tighter and the ability to resupply is getting more difficult, that increases the likelihood of volatility as well.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So we can’t say that gas prices have peaked, for example.
MIKE WIRTH: I think it’s very hard to say that, because you have to make a bunch of assumptions about that, and it depends on what you assume.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You mentioned jet fuel that doesn’t have as long of a life, right? You have to refresh and replenish storage pretty quickly. We’re reading about airports running out of jet fuel. What’s the reality there? What is the supply? And what does that mean for Americans who might want to travel?
MIKE WIRTH: Yeah. Inventories of jet fuel in certain parts of the world were at seasonally, relatively low levels before the conflict began. The Middle East refiners are significant exporters of jet fuel, particularly to Europe where 75% of Europe’s imported jet fuel tends to come from those refineries. It’s not flowing today. So we are seeing jet fuel tighten very quickly in Europe, in Asia, and we’re seeing airlines announce adjustments in their flight schedules. We’re seeing it flow through into fares. I think that’s one of the first places it will be felt most broadly. I mean, we’ve seen some upward pressure on gasoline prices now. I think aviation is clearly an area where it’s going to probably get worse over the next few weeks.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Get worse over the next few weeks, but that still- that has a lag effect. I mean, what you’re saying is, if you’re buying a trip to Europe, expect to pay a heck of a lot more, even if it’s months from now.
MIKE WIRTH: Yeah, again, I can’t predict how the airlines are going to price their, their product, but, but I think the upward pressure that they’re seeing on prices and the, the tightness in the market is likely to lead to further route optimization. And so flights may not be as abundant as they otherwise would have been. I think planes will probably be more full than they would have been. And yes, fares, fares could be higher.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So when you hear the treasury secretary or the energy secretary say $3 a gallon, and oh, it’ll come down again in the next few months. You’re saying we don’t know enough to actually make hard predictions. That’s what I hear you saying.
MIKE WIRTH: Yeah. It’s, you know, there’s a, kind of an old axiom that, you know, I can tell you the price, I just can’t tell you when. It’s very difficult to predict these things. Because markets are dynamic. They can respond to things that we don’t anticipate. And the one reality is that these, these shock absorbers, are not as effective as you get down to lower levels of inventory. And so I think that’s going to be with us for a period of time.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So the longer the conflict, or this period we’re in without resolution, it’s going to continue to weigh.
MIKE WIRTH: I think, I think it can extend these market effects.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So the President issued five different memos this past week, applying to the defense production Act, to oil, natural gas and other energy infrastructure. This is going to, in theory, allow him to increase production. Can you just turn on production at a moment’s notice? What difference does this make to you?
MIKE WIRTH: Yeah, I- You can’t turn on production at a moment’s notice. It takes engineering, it takes supply chains, it takes contracts and workers moving and being mobilized. So it takes time to bring new production into the market. Our company had record production in the US last year, 2 million barrels a day, a million barrels a day in the Permian. We’re going to grow seven to 10% again this year. So we do have plans underway to deliver more oil to the market–
MARGARET BRENNAN: That’s out in North Dakota and other parts of this country?
MIKE WIRTH: North Dakota, outside of the country, some other, other locations as well. So we’re investing to grow, but that, that has a lead time, and it has planning and and then execution time involved. The defense production act- iIntentions of the government, I believe, are aligned with some of their broader and pre-existing objectives to encourage investment in power generation for AI, for instance. And so I’m not sure that it is solely intended to respond to the current situation in the Middle East, as much as it may be part of the broader goal to encourage more investment into energy infrastructure in this country.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But the White House is urging energy companies to bump up production right to help alleviate costs? How much pressure are you getting?
MIKE WIRTH: Well, in a time– in a time when supply is short, you want to, you want to, you want to bring as much supply into the market as you can. The administration has taken some actions that I think are very positive. The release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is helpful. There’s something called the Jones Act, which puts restrictions on shipping in the US, that has been relieved, which provides more flexibility, which we’re using to move supplies from places where they’re plentiful to places where they’re becoming very tight.
MARGARET BRENNAN: That is like this 1920s law that required American ships to go to American ports.
MIKE WIRTH: Built in American shipyards, crewed by American mariners. And there’s only so many of those ships in existence, and they’re in, they’re fully utilized all the time. And so to make these incremental voyages, you need to bring other shipping assets into the mix, which the waiver of the Jones Act has done. And so we’ve been bringing crude oil and products from the Gulf Coast of the the United States around to the west coast to supply Alaska, Hawaii, California. Those are good actions that can help in the short term, create supplies where supplies are needed. The longer term solution is really to have policies that encourage steady, continuous investment in infrastructure to increase supply and create a more resilient energy system over time.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But for that, you need the other branch of government. You need Congress to go forward with permitting reform. Right?
MIKE WIRTH: I think permitting reform is a critical enabler of investment in all types, including wind and solar and nuclear and geothermal and traditional energy like oil and gas. It’s easy to stop projects from being built in this country today. It’s very difficult to get the permission to build it and then have it survive the inevitable challenges that it faces through the legal system. And so there’s good work underway in Congress. There’s some good legislation that has been drafted and is being discussed, and we’re very supportive of permitting reform that allows appropriate environmental protection and oversight, appropriate legal provisions, but then also allows this country to invest and build infrastructure for the future of all types.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But then you also need a vehicle and you need Congress to actually act. I mean, right now, Congress is struggling to get very basic funding deals done. You’re asking for them to write new laws. They haven’t been doing that a lot lately.
MIKE WIRTH: It’s a very evenly divided Congress, and it has been difficult to get legislation done. I think this is important enough to the economy that, and has some bipartisan support that I remain optimistic that we can see something emerge.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Do you have any pledges from, from leadership that they will try to move on this because of the emergency we’re in?
MIKE WIRTH: Well, we’ve seen Congressman Westerman, Senator Lee, have been working this. They’ve been working with colleagues on the other side of the aisle, and there’s legislation that has been moved from the house to the Senate. There are discussions underway, and I can’t predict the outcome of the process, other than, say, I think we’re really good for this country to see that- that succeed.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, that also, though, is not a quick fix, right?
MIKE WIRTH: No, that’s, that’s part of the durable, long term solution.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So the energy industry famously was at odds with the last administration, and vice versa. In this administration, are you and your fellow CEOs calling the White House and saying you’re being too optimistic? Are you telling them how much strain there is right now?
MIKE WIRTH: Well, one thing I will say is this is an administration that engages the business community very regularly, and it’s across the board, from all different departments within the government. They seek dialog, they seek input, and they’re available and accessible in a way that I think is very, very good, particularly at a time, at a time like this. We engage in discussions with them on a regular basis about the situation. I had discussions as recently as today about the things we’re doing to try to ensure reliable supplies into, into US markets. And so, yes, we speak on a fairly regular basis.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But you feel you can be honest and say–
MIKE WIRTH: Absolutely.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Because the President is telling the American people gas prices aren’t that high. His cabinet is telling the American people that prices are about to come down. You’re telling me that’s not that certain at all.
18:04
MIKE WIRTH: Well, yeah, I’m telling you the risks kind of skew to the upside right now–
MARGARET BRENNAN: And they know that.
MIKE WIRTH: And the opportunity is for us to, you know, see flow resume through the Strait and then at the same time, pursue these policies, which I think the administration really does have as a priority to continue to encourage investment in infrastructure in our economy.
18:25
MARGARET BRENNAN: The IMF director recently told us that this is going to last, likely through 2026. You would say that’s a fair assessment?
18:33
MIKE WIRTH: Well, this is a significant shock to the system. It is reorienting trade flows, logistics, ships. The entire system is in a state of disequilibrium right now that has emerged over the last several weeks, and as we get to a resolution at some point in time to establish a new equilibrium, means you’re going to have to resume flows. You’re going to have to restart fields to our earlier discussion, you’re going to have to get ships repositioned in places that are optimal to establish supply. So it will take some time. It’s not, it’s not a light switch, as you said.
19:09
MARGARET BRENNAN: So do you think that this Iran war has refocused investment on this hemisphere? That Chevron has a lot of business in this hemisphere. Do you see this as a market shift?
19:24
MIKE WIRTH: I think it’s too early to say that. I mean, this has been going on for eight weeks. Our investment cycle takes years to put assets on the ground, which last for decades, and so our planning horizon doesn’t respond to circumstances that emerge over this short a period of time. I think one of the interesting questions to watch will be on the other side of this, how does the energy system evolve? I suspect there will be structural differences in many aspects. Some could be hemispheric focus. Some could be infrastructure in the Middle East to create logistics routes that avoid certain. Three choke points and and so I think those, there will probably be some differences that we see. There may be different levels of strategic stocks that countries decide that they want to hold as buffers, particularly countries that have found themselves very exposed. So I think the new energy system will look different than the one that you know that we’ve been living in in recent times. I think it’s early to predict, with a lot of confidence, exactly what that will look like.
20:25
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, in this hemisphere, in Venezuela, Chevron has been the only American long term player of any significant size in that country. They have the world’s largest oil reserves. The energy secretary told us, after Maduro was taken out of power, that the US would be involved for at least a year, if not two years, before they hand over full sovereignty to the Venezuelan Government. How deep does that go? Like, how long do you expect the American government to be in Venezuela trying to help change their energy policies?
21:00
MIKE WIRTH: Yeah, again, that’s probably better answered by someone other than me. I think —
MARGARET BRENNAN: But what needs to happen?
MIKE WIRTH: Well, the the new interim president has overseen some changes in their hydrocarbon law, which changes the terms under which companies could invest in the country. It moves things in a positive direction. It still needs some work. It’s probably not enough to bring in the level of investment that would be desirable. So I think there’s there’s progress that’s been made. I think the US has reopened the embassy. It’s got some people on the ground now that are interacting with the Venezuelan government on a regular basis. Venezuelan Government seems to be very interested in more US investment in the country. A number of different companies have been down there taking down there taking a look at things. This would be good for Venezuela. Be good for the United States. This is, you know, oil that is the type that the refineries along the Gulf Coast were designed to process. I think an increase in production there would would improve energy reliability and and supplies in the United States. So we’re very supportive of those kinds of evolutions of the system, but it’s a work in progress at this point.
22:09
MARGARET BRENNAN: So you must have read that Wall Street Journal article that talked about a former Chevron executive who, according to their reporting, advised the US that if the Maduro regime was ousted and the Democratic opposition that had won the last election were to be put into power, there’d be a quagmire like Iraq. That there wasn’t support from the oil infrastructure, sort of officials and executives there. Was that reflective of Chevron’s views?
22:37
MIKE WIRTH: No. He’s not a chevron employee. He’s got no ongoing relationship with our company. I haven’t spoken to him for years, and whatever opinions were expressed were his alone, and they certainly don’t reflect opinions from our company.
22:52
MARGARET BRENNAN: But in terms of the outcome that we have seen, we did see the Trump administration go that route of not pushing into power the elected opposition party, but keeping the very same regime in place.
23:07
MIKE WIRTH: I think the administration had talked to people who had been involved in similar circumstances elsewhere in the world previously, where the US had been involved in a change in government —
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah.
MIKE WIRTH: and the way it was executed, created certain instabilities and kind of unintended risks or consequences. And certainly, as I listen to people like Secretary Rubio talk about their approach, it seems well informed by some of those lessons from from the past. And so I can only assume that they’ve looked at those kinds of situations and have tried to learn those lessons, to navigate this in a way that doesn’t create some of the unintended consequences that we saw in Iraq, for instance.
23:51
MARGARET BRENNAN: Does Secretary Rubio seek your counsel on these things?
23:53
MIKE WIRTH: I speak to Secretary Rubio from time to time, absolutely.
23:57
MARGARET BRENNAN: And I mean you, you know the energy industry that’s really kind of powering everything for them right now. So you provide him advice. I mean, how long do you think it’s going to take, back to that original question, to to have the American government pull back? Or is the American government going to stay?
24:15
MIKE WIRTH: I don’t know that. So I would say, you know, they’ve established some influence over the flow of revenue into the into the economy, which will be supported by, I think, increased exports around the world, that I think will be good for the people of Venezuela. I think on the ground, already we’re seeing prices for certain goods come down, inflation coming down, growth exceeding expectations, and so some of the situation on the ground, I believe, is moving in a direction that could be characterized as positive. But your observation that many of the people in government are unchanged is also, I think, accurate, and I’ve heard Secretary Rubio say that he does see, in due course, elections as part of the plan. And so I take him and his word on that.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah, well, we’re going to continue reporting on it, because some of the people, I mean, the defense minister, ran the domestic intelligence unit and has been sanctioned by the US and Europe for human rights abuses. The interior minister, Diosdado Cabello, has a $25 million bounty on his head. He was kind of Maduro’s Chief thug. These are the people running the country, just to be clear here. And at one point that government took Chevron employees hostage, back in 2018.
MIKE WIRTH: We had some people that were um —
MARGARET BRENNAN: and you’re still having to deal with these actors.
MIKE WIRTH: Yeah, you know around the world, we don’t get to choose the governments of countries where we operate —
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right
MIKE WIRTH: We, you know, have to follow the resource where it is. We make assessments on the security on the ground. We take great care to protect our people and in our assets. But it can be challenging and and we’re in a long cycle business, we tend to outlast any particular administration or regime in any country, including in this country and and we have to take a long view on what we do, try to do things that are good for the people of the country, because that’s ultimately what you are licensed to operate is granted by the people of the country. And then we have to work with the governments that we have, and our role isn’t to change them —
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah
MIKE WIRTH: or to tell them how to govern. Our role is to try to, you know, do the right thing for the people of the country and live up to the terms of our contracts and operate in a way that’s consistent with our values and US law.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The opposition leader Maria Corina Machado on this program was saying that no one’s going to settle for half measures, in her view, but that to get the people you need to work in the energy industry who might have fled the country, they’re not going to come back to Venezuela until they see a democratic transition. Do you think that’s right? Do you think that you can hire people to go work for you and your company there now, or are they still fearful for their lives?
MIKE WIRTH: We have great employees in Venezuela, Venezuelan national employees that have stayed in their country, that are committed to their country and committed to the values that we try to bring to their country. It’s undeniable that 25 years ago, there was a very talented workforce in our industry in Venezuela, that worked for the state owned company, many of whom have moved to other parts of the world, are working in other countries now, have established their lives, their families in those places. And I think returning from a place where you’ve established yourself is a difficult decision for anybody, and so I suspect we’ll see some people that choose to come back. I think we’ll probably see others that choose to stay wherever it is that their life is centered today.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We’ll continue watching it. Mike Wirth, thank you for your insights.
MIKE WIRTH: You’re welcome.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And we’ll be right back.
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