2026-04-25 10:05:18 UTC / 路透社
作者：雅各布·博亚奇、南迪塔·博斯、马特·斯佩塔尼克
2026年4月25日 美国东部时间上午10:05 更新于6分钟前
华盛顿4月25日电（路透社）——随着美国油价上涨、唐纳德·特朗普总统支持率下滑以及伊朗战事持续，共和党正在为11月的中期选举重新调整竞选纲领。
此次策略是什么？力求借助特朗普的动员能力，但避免让选举沦为对这位愈发不受欢迎的总统的全民公投。
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据四位知情人士透露，在本周与顶尖保守派竞选官员举行的闭门会议上，特朗普的政治顾问——包括白宫办公厅主任苏西·怀尔斯、政治事务主管詹姆斯·布莱尔以及资深民调专家托尼·法布里齐奥——概述了一项竞选计划，呼吁候选人宣传共和党的减税政策和对抗通胀的举措。
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但共和党希望避免将特朗普本人作为竞选焦点，因为战略人士担心他日渐低迷的政治运势可能会影响竞争激烈的国会选区候选人的选情。共和党目前面临着保住众议院多数席位的艰难挑战，同时失去参议院控制权的风险也与日俱增。
据三位知情人士和另一位资深共和党竞选消息人士透露，部分共和党幕僚日益担忧特朗普的执政生涯和政治影响力正在耗尽，他们均要求匿名以讨论内部会议并发表坦率的评价。
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特朗普似乎在与伊朗的对峙中陷入僵局，军事和外交努力均远未能实现伊朗无核化以及在开战两个月后重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，全国平均油价接近每加仑4美元，这可能抵消共和党“超级宏伟法案”——特朗普第二任期标志性立法成果——中新减税政策的效果。
路透社/益普索的一项民调显示，仅有36%的美国人认可特朗普的工作表现，这是他本届任期内的最低支持率。在经历了一系列情绪失控的公开表态后，许多美国人，包括部分共和党人，都对这位79岁总统的性情和精神敏锐度表示担忧。
一位特朗普阵营的政治顾问对路透社表示：“民主党会试图将选举全国化，声称我们是特朗普的橡皮图章。我们必须打破这一局面，逐选区展示我们为何是更优选择。”
在总统的政治运作团队内部，对于特朗普是高效信使的信心依然强劲。共和党全国委员会全国新闻秘书基尔斯滕·佩尔斯表示，特朗普仍将是中期选举中保守派选民投票率的“最强大推动力”，共和党候选人也热切期待获得他的背书。
白宫发言人奥利维亚·威尔士称，特朗普是“共和党毋庸置疑的领袖”，他致力于维护共和党在国会的多数席位。
聚焦本土议题，而非特朗普
周一的会议在曾为特朗普豪华华盛顿酒店、现为华尔道夫阿斯托利亚酒店的场所举行，参会人员一边享用咖啡和点心，一边被要求签署保密协议。随后特朗普团队预测共和党将于次日在弗吉尼亚州的重划选区选举中获胜。据知情人士透露，当时的气氛十分乐观。
会议细节随即被泄露。一天后，弗吉尼亚州选民批准了民主党绘制的、将在11月选举中助力本党的新国会选区地图。
“如果制定这一策略的人对弗吉尼亚州的选情充满信心，却最终在弗吉尼亚州落败，那么你不得不质疑，他们是否对整个竞选方案过于自信？”一位与会知情人士说道。
2026年4月24日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地登上空军一号，前往棕榈滩国际机场。路透社/凯莉·库珀/资料图片
部分共和党内部人士迅速指出，中期选举仍有数月之遥，选民投票前局势可能发生诸多变化。如果与伊朗的武装冲突缓和，油价可能下跌，通胀也可能整体降温。
“恐慌源于人们只看到当下的情况，但我认为关键在于预判夏季的局势，目前局势仍充满变数，”与特朗普立场一致的经济增长俱乐部主席戴维·麦金托什说道。
在此次选举周期之初，共和党计划将特朗普作为党的领袖加以宣传，并反复提及他那句口头禅，称特朗普将美国变成了“世界上最热门的国家”。
怀尔斯去年12月曾表示，共和党将颠覆传统中期选举的运作模式，将特朗普“放上竞选舞台”，而非让现任总统远离竞选活动。
但知情人士称，如今这一计划吸引力下降。共和党将转而强调本土议题，而非对总统的效忠。
“政治形势已经改变，”另一位与会知情人士说道。“今年1月，围绕特朗普展开全国性竞选尚有一定道理。”
“选民认为总统在降低生活成本方面做得不够，但他们仍然相信共和党会采取行动，”该人士表示。
这位特朗普阵营的顾问补充道，民主党支持率低迷，为共和党提供了绝佳的对比对象，可以借此凸显自身的政策主张。
不过，特朗普支持率下滑可能给民主党提供了可乘之机，将共和党候选人与总统的缺点挂钩，这让部分保守派竞选幕僚对白宫的政治策略持怀疑态度。
特朗普在2024年竞选期间曾批评“愚蠢的战争”，将自己塑造为“和平总统”，如今却正指挥着自2003年伊拉克入侵以来美国规模最大的军事行动。
批评人士称，特朗普政府几乎未考虑伊朗会对美以联合袭击作出何种回应，也未考虑由此引发的巨大经济后果，包括前所未有的全球能源供应冲击以及全球经济衰退的风险。
特朗普周二宣布将原本为期两周的停火无限期延长，这一决定被广泛视为撤军信号，德黑兰方面仍控制着霍尔木兹海峡，并坚持推进核计划。
曾在两党政府中担任中东问题谈判代表的亚伦·戴维·米勒表示，伊朗认为自己掌控着这条至关重要的石油运输航道的主动权，并且能够比特朗普承受更多的经济压力。
“伊朗人认为特朗普对经济和政治代价的容忍度有限，”卡内基国际和平基金会专家米勒说道。“他们准备等待特朗普下台。”
雅各布·博亚奇、南迪塔·博斯、马特·斯佩塔尼克报道；博·埃里克森补充报道；科琳·詹金斯、妮娅·威廉姆斯编辑
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Republicans retool midterm strategy: Trump’s policies, but less Trump
2026-04-25 10:05:18 UTC / Reuters
By Jacob Bogage, Nandita Bose and Matt Spetalnick
April 25, 2026 10:05 AM UTC Updated 6 mins ago
WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) – With U.S. gas prices up, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings down and the Iran war dragging on, Republicans are recalibrating their blueprint ahead of November’s midterm elections.
The strategy? Seek to tap Trump’s turnout power without making the races a referendum on an increasingly unpopular president.
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In a closed-door meeting this week with top conservative campaign officials, Trump’s political advisers – including White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, political chief James Blair and longtime pollster Tony Fabrizio – outlined a plan for candidates to promote Republicans’ tax cuts and inflation-fighting policies, according to four people familiar with the gathering.
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But Republicans want to avoid making Trump himself the focus of the campaign, as strategists worry that his sagging political fortunes could hurt candidates in competitive congressional races. Trump’s party faces an uphill battle to keep its House of Representatives majority, and a growing risk of losing control of the Senate.
Among some Republican operatives, concern is increasing that Trump’s presidency – and political clout – are running out of gas, according to three of the people, plus another seasoned Republican campaign source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private meetings and offer candid assessments.
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Trump appears mired in a deadlock with Iran, with both military and diplomatic efforts falling far short of denuclearizing the Islamic Republic and reopening the Strait of Hormuz after two months of war. Rising gas prices – the national average is near $4 per gallon, according to AAA – threaten to neutralize new tax policies from Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” the signature legislative achievement of Trump’s second term.
Only 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, the lowest of his current term, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. And many Americans, including some Republicans, have some concerns about the 79-year-old president’s temperament and mental sharpness following a series of explosive outbursts.
Democrats “are going to try to nationalize the election and say we’re a rubber stamp for Trump,” a Trumpworld political strategist told Reuters. “We have to break out of that and show race by race why we’re the better choice.”
Inside the president’s political operation, enthusiasm remains strong that Trump is an effective messenger. Kiersten Pels, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, said that Trump would remain “the most powerful driver” of conservative voter turnout in the midterms, and that Republican candidates are eagerly seeking his endorsement.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Trump was the “unequivocal leader of the Republican party and he is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress.”
EMPHASIS ON LOCAL ISSUES, NOT TRUMP
Over coffee and pastries in the meeting on Monday held at what was once Trump’s luxury Washington hotel, now the Waldorf Astoria, Trump’s team asked guests to sign non-disclosure agreements, then predicted Republicans would win a redistricting election the next day in Virginia. The mood was optimistic, the people familiar with the gathering said.
Details of the meeting leaked immediately. A day later, Virginia voters approved the new congressional map Democrats drew to favor their party in November.
“If the people framing this approach are confident about Virginia and they get beat in Virginia, you have to question, are they overconfident about the whole package?” one of the people familiar with the meeting said.
U.S. President Donald Trump boards Air Force One en route to Palm Beach International Airport, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., April 24, 2026. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper/File Photo
Some Republican insiders are quick to point out that the midterm elections are months away, and that much can change before voters go to the polls. If armed hostilities with Iran slow, gas prices could fall and inflation could cool more broadly.
“The panic is people looking at things right now, but I think the key is to project where it could be over the summer, and it’s still very fluid,” said David McIntosh, president of the Trump-aligned Club for Growth.
Headed into the election cycle, Republicans planned to promote Trump as the party’s standard-bearer, and as the figure who, in his oft-repeated phrase, turned the U.S. into “the hottest country anywhere in the world.”
Wiles in December said Republicans would upend the traditional midterm playbook by putting Trump “on the ballot,” rather than keeping the sitting president at a distance.
Now, the people said, that plan is less attractive. Republicans will look to emphasize local issues rather than allegiance to the president, they added.
“The politics have changed,” said another of the people familiar with the meeting. “In January, nationalizing the race around him made some sense.
“Voters don’t feel the president is doing enough to make their lives cheaper, but they still believe Republicans want to do that,” the person said.
The Trumpworld strategist added that the Democratic Party’s low popularity gives Republicans an effective foil with which to contrast policy ideas.
Trump’s faltering support, though, could give Democrats fertile ground to attach Republican candidates to the president’s shortcomings, making some conservative campaign operatives skeptical of the White House’s political approach.
After campaigning in 2024 as a critic of “stupid wars” and styling himself as a “peace president,” Trump is now overseeing the largest U.S. military operation since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Critics say Trump’s administration showed little consideration of how Iran would respond to the joint U.S.-Israeli attack or the vast economic fallout, including an unprecedented global energy supply shock and the threat of a worldwide financial downturn.
Trump’s decision on Tuesday to indefinitely extend what was originally a two-week ceasefire was widely viewed as a retreat, with Tehran maintaining its grip on the Strait of Hormuz and commitment to a nuclear program.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for both Democratic and Republican administrations, said Iran believes it holds leverage with the vital oil shipment channel and can also endure more economic pain than Trump.
“The Iranians think Trump’s tolerance for an economic and political price is limited,” said Miller, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “They’re prepared to wait him out.”
Reporting by Jacob Bogage, Nandita Bose and Matt Spetalnick; Additional reporting by Bo Erickson; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Nia Williams
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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