2026-04-22T18:32:11.581Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
作者：马歇尔·科恩
1小时28分钟前发布
发布于美国东部时间2026年4月22日下午2:32
投资 联邦机构
查看所有主题
Facebook 推特 电子邮件 链接 Threads
链接已复制！
在这张示意图中，2月25日于芝加哥拍摄到在线预测市场卡尔希（Kalshi）的应用程序界面。
斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社/档案照片
华盛顿——
在线预测平台卡尔希于周三暂停了三名政治参选者的平台账号，理由是“政治内幕交易”。经内部调查发现，这三人押注了自身的竞选结果。
CNN率先报道了此次停权与处罚举措，这是预测平台迄今为止针对政治参选者采取的最严厉执法行动，而2026年美国中期选举的初选已陆续展开。
此次公告发布之际，两党议员持续担忧快速扩张的预测市场行业可能会损害美国选举的公正性。
在预测平台上，用户可以对从选举、体育、娱乐甚至每日最高气温等几乎所有事物下注。（CNN与卡尔希存在合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件。不过，编辑部员工不得参与预测市场交易。）
卡尔希执法主管罗伯特·德诺尔特在宣布停权的声明中表示，此类案件属于“政治内幕交易”，违反了卡尔希经美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）批准的规则。该委员会是监管预测平台的联邦机构。
声明未指明面临处罚的三名用户身份。一位知情消息人士称，他们是联邦公职的参选候选人。
“当交易员违反我们的交易所规则时，他们将受到交易所纪律处分，”德诺尔特说道，“对于更严重的违规行为，我们会将案件提交给CFTC或美国司法部作进一步调查和起诉，但此次并未走到这一步。”
目前尚不清楚这些参选者在自身竞选相关押注上投入了多少资金，但德诺尔特暗示，交易金额可能不大。
“无论交易规模大小，能够凭借自身参选与否影响市场的政治候选人，都违反了我们的规则，”德诺尔特说，“只要被发现违反交易所规则，无论交易规模多小，都将受到处罚。”
拜登政府时期的CFTC曾试图禁止与选举相关的预测市场，但在2024年总统大选前，两家联邦法院推翻了这一禁令。由特朗普任命的CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格支持此类市场，并于今年早些时候撤回了该机构提出的禁令。
这是卡尔希今年第二轮重大执法行动。今年2月，该平台暂停了YouTube网红野兽先生（MrBeast）的一名员工以及一位名不见经传的加州州长参选者的账号，后者为自身竞选下注200美元。
一位知情消息人士透露，卡尔希预计将像此前的案件一样，将此次执法行动收缴的罚款捐赠给一家向消费者普及金融市场知识的非营利组织。
法律灰色地带
过去一年，卡尔希及其主要竞争对手Polymarket的人气暴涨，目前两者的周总交易额均达数十亿美元。
两党议员都对内幕交易风险表示担忧。在CNN及其他媒体报道了Polymarket平台上针对美以伊朗冲突、美国在委内瑞拉军事行动的精准且获利丰厚的交易后，此类批评声愈发高涨。
但并非所有预测市场上的内幕交易行为都会自动被认定为违法。
美国联邦法律聚焦于交易员是否负有不泄露信息的法定保密义务。曾与CFTC合作处理金融案件的纽约南区前联邦检察官诺亚·索洛维耶克表示，这让政治竞选活动处于法律灰色地带。
“如果是竞选团队员工，其负有保密竞选信息的义务，那情况可能不同，属于违反现有法律的行为，”索洛维耶克说，“但候选人自身基于自身信息交易，并未违反对任何人的义务。这是他们自己的竞选活动。”
今年，议员们已提出至少两项法案，旨在从根源上阻止受CFTC监管的公司如卡尔希提供选举相关合约。
犹他州共和党众议员布雷克·穆尔上月在宣布其两党法案时表示，“监管不足的预测市场让美国暴露在不必要的公共安全和国家安全风险中”，因为用户可以对包括选举在内的“敏感事项”进行交易。
预测平台受CFTC的联邦监管。但约40个州在法庭上辩称，预测平台提供的产品与赌博几乎无异，因此必须遵守州级博彩法律。
其中亚利桑那州已对卡尔希提起刑事诉讼，指控其运营无牌照赌场并违反州内选举投注禁令。卡尔希否认存在不当行为，一名联邦法官最近叫停了该州的诉讼程序。
投资 联邦机构
查看所有主题
Facebook 推特 电子邮件 链接 Threads
链接已复制！
Kalshi prediction site suspends three political candidates for betting on their own races
2026-04-22T18:32:11.581Z / CNN
By Marshall Cohen
1 hr 28 min ago
PUBLISHED Apr 22, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Investing Federal agencies
See all topics
Facebook Tweet Email Link Threads
Link Copied!
In this photo illustration, an app for the online prediction market Kalshi is shown in Chicago, on February 25.
Scott Olson/Getty Images/File
Washington—
The prediction market Kalshi suspended three political candidates from its platform on Wednesday for “political insider trading” after an internal probe found that they bet on their own campaigns.
These suspensions and fines, reported first by CNN, are the most aggressive enforcement actions taken to date by a prediction site against political candidates, with primaries for the 2026 midterms already underway.
The announcement comes as lawmakers from both parties have steadily raised concerns about how the rapidly expanding prediction market industry could potentially undermine the integrity of US elections.
On prediction sites, users can bet on nearly everything from elections to sports, entertainment, or even the daily high temperature. (CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. However, editorial employees are not allowed to participate in prediction markets.)
Robert DeNault, Kalshi’s head of enforcement, said in a statement announcing the suspensions that these cases are “political insider trading” and violated Kalshi’s rules as approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction platforms.
The statement didn’t identify the three users facing punishments. A source familiar with the matter said they were candidates for federal offices.
“When a trader violates our exchange rules, they will be subject to exchange discipline,” DeNault said. “For more serious matters, we refer cases to the CFTC or DOJ for further investigation and prosecution, which didn’t happen here.”
It wasn’t immediately clear how much money these candidates wagered on their own campaigns, though DeNault suggested they might be small trades.
“Regardless of the size of a trade, political candidates who can influence a market based on whether they stay in or out of a race violate our rules,” DeNault said. “No matter how small the size of the trade, any trade that is found to have violated our exchange rules will be punished.”
The Biden-era CFTC tried to prohibit election-related prediction markets, but two federal courts later cleared the way before the 2024 presidential election. The Trump-appointed CFTC chair, Michael Selig, has embraced these markets and withdrew the agency’s proposed ban earlier this year.
This is Kalshi’s second round of major enforcement actions this year. In February, it suspended an employee of YouTube star MrBeast and a little-known candidate for California governor who bet $200 on his own race.
A source familiar with the matter says Kalshi, as it did in prior cases, is expected to donate the fines from Wednesday’s enforcement actions to a nonprofit organization that educates consumers about financial markets.
Legal gray area
Over the past year, Kalshi and its main rival, Polymarket, have exploded in popularity. Both sides now see billions of dollars in weekly total volume.
A bipartisan array of lawmakers have expressed alarm about the risks of insider trading. These criticisms grew after reports from CNN and other outlets about well-timed and highly lucrative trades on Polymarket regarding the US-Israeli war in Iran and US military actions in Venezuela.
But not all insider activity on prediction markets is automatically illegal.
Federal laws focus on whether the trader has an existing legal obligation to keep information secret. This leaves a gray area with political campaigns, according to Noah Solowiejczyk, a former federal prosecutor in the Southern District of New York who often partnered with the CFTC on financial cases.
“If it was a campaign employee who has a duty to keep campaign information confidential, that might be different scenario, violating existing law,” Solowiejczyk said. “But the candidate themselves, trading on their own information, isn’t breaching a duty to anyone. It’s their own campaign.”
Lawmakers have proposed at least two bills this year to stop CFTC regulated companies like Kalshi from offering election contracts in the first place.
Rep. Blake Moore, a Utah Republican, said in a statement last month announcing his bipartisan bill that “under-regulated prediction markets have exposed America to needless public safety and national security risks” by letting users trade on “sensitive matters,” including elections.
Prediction sites are federally regulated by the CFTC. But about 40 states have argued in court that prediction platforms offer products that are nearly identical to gambling and therefore must comply with state gaming laws.
One state, Arizona, filed criminal charges against Kalshi for allegedly operating an unlicensed casino and violating state bans against election bets. Kalshi denies wrongdoing, and a federal judge recently halted the state case.
Investing Federal agencies
See all topics
Facebook Tweet Email Link Threads
Link Copied!
发表回复