2026-04-20T04:01:54.857Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
斯蒂芬·科林森 分析报道
3小时前
发布于 美国东部时间2026年4月20日 00:01
4月18日周六，油轮停泊在伊朗格什姆岛沿岸的霍尔木兹海峡。
阿斯加尔·贝沙拉蒂/美联社
本周的伊朗停火与和平谈判岌岌可危，这条战略水道的紧张局势急剧升级——它既是德黑兰新影响力的象征，也是一场被批评人士警告已脱离唐纳德·特朗普总统掌控的冲突。
周五，特朗普称伊朗已“同意所有条件”，市场因战争有望很快结束的预期出现反弹。但到周日，这看起来又成了又一场过度炒作的外交闹剧，总统再次威胁要摧毁伊朗的桥梁和发电厂，而德黑兰也重新封锁了霍尔木兹海峡。美国海军开火并扣押了一艘试图突破对伊朗舰队封锁的伊朗籍货轮，暴露出双方互不信任以及对全面重启战争的担忧。
这种态度反复无常是特朗普战争领导风格的典型特征，他时而高调预测和平即将到来，时而发出令人恐慌的暴力威胁。他的对手认为这是混乱且缺乏计划的表现，而总统的助手们则坚称，他正巧妙地运用影响力，迫使伊朗屈服。
但随着原定于周二到期的停火期限临近，美伊预期将在巴基斯坦举行第二轮谈判，特朗普的战争迷雾将迎来下一次现实检验。未来几天或将揭晓，特朗普如今惯用的威慑策略能否创造外交突破口，还是其效力正在减弱。如果策略失败，特朗普可能再次面临是否升级美国军事介入的抉择，试图找到出路，这将对全球经济和他不断下滑的支持率造成灾难性后果。
4月18日周六，唐纳德·特朗普总统在白宫椭圆形办公室。
朱莉娅·德马雷·尼基辛森/美联社
这场战争最令人困惑的特征之一是，几乎无法判断美伊双方有关战争的表态是否真诚、是否准确。
在多起政权高层遇刺事件后，伊朗国内无人能确切知晓究竟是哪些领导人在发号施令。这使得评估其外交战略变得困难。
但特朗普在战争中的情绪——至少从他在社交媒体上的表态来看——始终在变化。上周有报道援引美国官员的话称，伊朗愿意放弃真主党和哈马斯等代理武装，并交出其高浓缩铀库存。这对美国政府而言本是巨大胜利。但现代历史以及伊朗近期的表态和行为都对此提出了质疑。
4月15日，在美伊停火期间，人们在德黑兰的革命广场参加反美反以色列集会。
塔伊尔·阿尔-苏达尼/路透社
然而，在言辞与好战姿态背后，双方都有充分理由避免重新开战。或许双方都在为可能到来的谈判加剧紧张局势，以争取外交空间。
特朗普反复强调达成协议在望，这暗示他对这场战争的热情正在消退——在中期选举年，战争已让美国付出了沉重的经济和政治代价。《华尔街日报》周六报道称，尽管特朗普虚张声势，但他对战争的后果和升级风险深感担忧。
对伊朗政权而言，战争结束时能够存续本身就是一种胜利。与此同时，美国对伊朗港口的封锁有可能让本已破败的经济陷入社会崩溃。数周不间断的轰炸造成了大规模破坏，重建成本将达数万亿美元。
“不再做老好人”
美国政府暗示，他们相信可以通过加大施压打破德黑兰的抵抗。
在周日的“国情咨文”节目中，CNN主播杰克·塔珀询问美国能源部长克里斯·赖特，为何其上司在社交媒体上发文称“不再做老好人”，并威胁如果伊朗领导人不接受美国提出的协议，就轰炸伊朗所有的桥梁和发电厂。
“总统正在寻求最大程度的影响力，”赖特说道。他表示自己“并不担心”，因为伊朗国内的“流言和杂音”显示该政权正在分崩离析，战争结束“为期不远”。
赖特还称赞政府在应对战争引发的能源冲击方面“表现极佳”，目前汽油价格已突破每加仑4美元。
2026年3月11日，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特在华盛顿举行的贝莱德基础设施峰会小组讨论上发言。
安娜·莫尼梅克/盖蒂图片社
美国驻联合国大使迈克·瓦尔兹周日也表达了类似观点，称股市上涨、油价稳定，伊朗领导层内部出现分裂，该国从未像现在这样孤立。
“伊朗没有筹码，我们相信它们会来到谈判桌前，最终放弃对核武器的执念，”瓦尔兹在哥伦比亚广播公司的“面向全国”节目中说道。
“我们正在削弱他们的作战能力。他们的军队已一团糟，导弹项目也濒临崩溃。现在，希望他们能通过外交途径以轻松的方式放弃这种非法野心，而非通过强硬手段，”瓦尔兹说道。
此类预期给负责主导美国外交的副总统J·D·万斯带来了巨大压力。CNN上周报道称，在首轮谈判失败后，特朗普一直在向身边人询问这位二号人物的表现。
伊朗方面则驳斥了美国有关伊朗即将屈服的说法。
伊朗首席谈判代表穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫对国家媒体表示，尽管外交谈判“取得了进展”，但在海峡和核问题上仍存在重大分歧。他称伊朗不会交出被美国总统称为“核尘埃”的浓缩铀。
与特朗普一样，身为伊朗议会议长的加利巴夫也在向政府内外的国内民众发表讲话，并在任何谈判前摆出尽可能强硬的立场。
特朗普周日表示，美国代表将前往伊斯兰堡进行谈判。伊朗尚未公开确认会谈将举行。
与美国一样，伊朗似乎也认为自己占据上风。
“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航母4月16日在阿拉伯海执行美国封锁行动。
美国海军/美国中央司令部公共事务部
但在这场复杂局势中，各种证据和事件并未完全印证美国政府有关取得巨大成功的说法。
美国和以色列的空袭无疑给伊朗军队、军工综合体以及导弹和无人机库造成了严重破坏。但该政权依然存续。伊朗民众未能起来推翻其压迫性统治。
美国方面的附带损失也十分惨重。由于特朗普愤怒指责成员国逃避它们反对的战争，北约的凝聚力受到质疑。特朗普曾威胁——尽管并未付诸实施——伊朗文明或将覆灭，这是美国历任总统发表过的最尖锐声明之一。而他的政府上周还与教皇利奥十四世发生争执，并质疑其反战立场。
民主党注意到民调显示特朗普的支持率因这场战争暴跌——周日公布的一项NBC新闻/萨维奇民调显示，其支持率仅为37%——因此将特朗普描绘成深陷伊朗问题、束手无策的形象。
“浓缩铀还在那里。我们面对的是一个更加强硬的政权。小哈梅内伊实际上仍想发展核武器。有人真的相信我们对霍尔木兹海峡拥有更多影响力吗？恰恰相反，我们的影响力更少了。中国在伊朗拥有更多影响力，”民主党众议员罗·卡纳告诉美国广播公司。
这场战争已持续超过一周，超过了官员最初提出的六周最长持续时间。特朗普从未像现在这样迫切需要结束战争——并证明他能削弱伊朗这个美国死对头，而非助长其气焰。
New threats and tensions rattle Iran ceasefire and test peace push
2026-04-20T04:01:54.857Z / CNN
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
3 hr ago
PUBLISHED Apr 20, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Tankers anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Qeshm Island, Iran, on Saturday, April 18.
Asghar Besharati/AP
The Iran ceasefire and peace talks this week are hanging by a thread as tensions boil over the strategic waterway that epitomizes Tehran’s new leverage and a conflict that critics warn has escaped President Donald Trump’s control.
On Friday, Trump said Iran had “agreed to everything,” prompting a stock market rally on hopes the war could soon end. But by Sunday, this looked like another case of overhyping diplomacy, and the president was again threatening to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants, and Tehran had shut the Strait of Hormuz back down. A mutual lack of trust and fears of a full return to war were on display after the US Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged freighter that tried to bust its blockade of Tehran’s fleet.
The whiplash is typical of Trump’s war leadership, which veers between triumphant predictions of imminent peace and alarming threats of violence. His opponents see chaos and the absence of a plan, while the president’s aides insist he’s masterfully wielding leverage in a way that will force Iran to cave.
But Trump’s fog of war faces its next date with reality as an expected second set of US-Iran talks loom in Pakistan ahead of the scheduled expiration of the ceasefire Tuesday. The next few days may show whether Trump’s now-familiar strategy of intimidation can create diplomatic openings or whether its effectiveness is dwindling. If it fails, Trump may again face a choice of whether to escalate US military involvement to try to find a way out with potentially disastrous results for the global economy and his own sliding popularity.
President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House, on Saturday, April 18.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
One of the most confusing characteristics of this war is that it’s all but impossible to judge the sincerity and accuracy of either US or Iranian statements about it.
No one outside Iran can say exactly which leaders are calling the shots after waves of assassinations of regime figures. This makes it hard to assess its diplomatic strategy.
But Trump’s mood in the war — at least as reflected by his social media statements — is constantly shifting. US officials were quoted as saying last week in various reports that Iran was willing to give up supporting proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and to turn over its stocks of highly enriched uranium. This would represent a huge win for the administration. But modern history and Iran’s recent statements and behavior raise questions.
People take part in an anti-US and anti-Israel rally at Enghelab Square amid a ceasefire between US and Iran, in Tehran, Iran, on April 15.
Thaier Al-Sudani/Reuters
Yet there are compelling reasons, behind the rhetoric and belligerence, for both sides to avoid renewed fighting. Perhaps both are cranking up tensions before possible talks to create diplomatic space.
Trump’s repeated insistence that a deal is in reach hints at waning enthusiasm for a war that has inflicted a heavy economic and political price in a midterm election year. The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday that despite his bravado, Trump harbors serious fears about its consequences and the risks of an escalation.
For Iran’s regime, survival when the war does end would be a victory in itself. The US blockade of Iran’s ports meanwhile threatens to turn a devastated economy into a societal collapse. Weeks of relentless bombing has caused massive devastation that will cost trillions of dollars to rebuild.
‘No More Mr Nice Guy’
The administration is signaling that it believes it can break Tehran’s resistance by cranking up pressure.
On “State of the Union” Sunday, CNN’s Jake Tapper asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to explain why his boss posted on social media that there’d be “No More Mr Nice Guy” and that he’d bomb every bridge and power plant in Iran if its leaders won’t make a deal the US is offering.
“The president is looking for maximum leverage,” Wright said. He said he was “not worried” because “chatter and noise” in Iran showed a regime that was falling apart and that the end of the war was “not too far away.”
Wright also credited the administration with dealing “fantastically” with the war’s energy shock, which has sent gas prices over $4 a gallon.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright speaks during a panel at the BlackRock Infrastructure Summit on March 11, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
US ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz on Sunday painted a similar picture of rising stock markets, stable oil prices and fragmentation in Iran’s leadership, saying the country had never been more isolated.
“Iran does not have the cards, and we are confident they will come to the table and finally give up their obsession with having a nuclear weapon,” Waltz said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”
“We are reducing their capabilities. Their military is in shambles. Their missile program is in shambles. And now, hopefully, diplomatically, they will do it the easy way, rather than the hard way, of finally giving up on this illegal ambition,” Waltz said.
Such expectations put massive pressure on Vice President JD Vance, who has been leading the US diplomacy. CNN reported last week that Trump is quizzing associates about his No. 2’s performance after a first round of talks failed.
Iran, for its part, is contradicting US claims that it’s ready to fold.
Its chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told state media that although “progress has been made” in diplomacy, significant gaps remain over the strait and over nuclear issues. He said Iran would not hand over enriched uranium, which the US president calls “nuclear dust.”
Like Trump, Ghalibaf, who serves as speaker of the Iranian Parliament, is addressing domestic audiences inside and outside the government and is staking out the toughest possible position ahead of any talks.
Trump said Sunday that US representatives are traveling to Islamabad for negotiations. Iran has yet to publicly confirm talks will take place.
Like the US, Iran seems to believe it has the upper hand.
USS Abraham Lincoln conducts US blockade operations in the Arabian Sea, on April 16.
US Navy/US Central Command Public Affiars
But evidence and events in a complex situation do not fully bear out the administration’s claims of a huge success.
US and Israeli air attacks surely caused intense damage to Iran’s forces, military industrial complex, and missile and drone arsenals. But the regime survives. Iran’s people have been unable to rise up and oust their repressors.
The collateral damage for the US has been severe. NATO’s cohesion is in question amid Trump’s fury that member states dodged a war they opposed. Trump threatened — although did not follow through on — a warning that Iranian civilization could die, in one of the most searing statements ever by a US president. And his administration spent last week feuding with Pope Leo XIV and questioning his anti-war theology.
Democrats, conscious of polls that show Trump’s approval rating has plunged over the war — it hit 37% in a new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll Sunday — are portraying him as stuck in Iran and out of ideas.
“The enriched uranium is still there. We have a more hardline regime there. Khamenei Jr. actually wants to develop nuclear weapons. Does anyone believe that we actually have more leverage over the Strait of Hormuz? We have less. China has more influence in Iran,” Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna told ABC.
The war is now more than a week past the six-week threshold initially suggested by officials as its longest span. Trump has never been under more pressure to end it — and to show it will defang Iran rather than embolden a sworn US foe.
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