2026-04-18T08:00:56.843Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
分析由
亚伦·布莱克撰写
发布于 2026年4月18日，美国东部时间凌晨4:00
唐纳德·特朗普 中东 选举 民调 人权
唐纳德·特朗普总统4月16日从白宫南草坪出发前往登上海军一号专机前，向记者发表讲话。
本月，唐纳德·特朗普总统威胁要袭击伊朗的基础设施，其方式很可能构成战争罪。随后他又发出了更为严厉的威胁，声称：“整个文明今晚就会覆灭。”
这些威胁震惊了政界，甚至包括一些特朗普的资深盟友，他们随即与他划清界限。
但根据本周公布的民调结果，对共和党选民基础来说，这些威胁并不算什么大事。事实上，总体而言，它们甚至还获得了正面评价。
而这不过是特朗普提出极端主张、随后迅速获得共和党大部分选民基础拥护的最新案例。
- 奎尼皮亚克大学本周的民调显示，66%的共和党人表示，如果谈判失败，他们支持轰炸伊朗的发电厂和其他民用基础设施。（该调查问题未提及此举很可能构成战争罪。）
- 几乎只有共和党人持支持态度；民主党人以95%对3%的压倒性比例反对这一想法，独立选民也以77对18%的绝对多数表示反对。
- 当被问及特朗普在社交媒体上威胁要终结伊朗文明时，民调结果几乎完全一致：62%的共和党人认为这一威胁“可以接受”，而其他群体绝大多数表示反对。
- （值得强调的是，该民调问题针对的是发出威胁这一行为，而非付诸行动。）
《哥伦比亚广播公司新闻》-YouGov周末发布的民调也得出了类似结果。
在完整展示该社交媒体帖子后，表示喜欢该帖子的共和党人数是表示不喜欢的两倍（近一半对约两成）。另有31%的人持中立态度。
如果这种情况让你觉得眼熟，那是有原因的。十年来，特朗普一次又一次地提出几乎像是为了考验选民基础忠诚度的主张——想看看他们会在多大程度上支持他。
他们一次又一次地证明，他们会坚定地站在他这边，哪怕这些主张遭到独立选民的广泛反对。
2023年，特朗普曾表示他想成为一名独裁者，但只当一天，后来他称这只是个玩笑。但共和党人仍然认可这一想法；马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校的民调显示，74%的共和党人认为这会是一件“好事”。
几乎在同一时期，特朗普称他会鼓励俄罗斯对未足额缴纳军费的北约盟友“为所欲为”，奎尼皮亚克的民调显示共和党人对此观点大致持平：38%的人支持，39%的人反对，其余人未表态。
特朗普经常提出或调侃要竞选第三个任期，尽管这违反宪法。一年前的路透社-益普索民调显示，反对特朗普追求这一明显非法目标的共和党人多于支持者，但仍有44%的人表示支持。
随着特朗普就任总统并推行更具扩张性、往往更军事化的外交政策，他提出了诸多堪称“离经叛道”的主张，而这些主张很快得到了共和党人的拥护。
去年特朗普短暂提出美国接管加沙的想法时，奎尼皮亚克的民调显示49%的共和党人支持这一想法。当路透社-益普索民调指出此举将涉及“将巴勒斯坦人重新安置到其他地方”——也就是众所周知的种族清洗时，仍有41%的人表示支持。
上个月的另一项路透社-益普索民调显示，58%的共和党人支持按照特朗普经常提出的主张，袭击墨西哥境内的贩毒集团，尽管该民调补充说明这将“未经墨西哥政府许可”。换句话说，这将是对邻国的战争行为。
而且这并非单次事件。
近几个月来，随着特朗普提出在其他多个国家采取军事行动的想法，马里斯特学院1月份的民调显示，共和党人几乎对所有提议都表示支持。至少七成的人支持在墨西哥、古巴、伊朗和委内瑞拉采取军事行动。对格陵兰岛的支持率稍低，但也有57%的人表示支持。
一年前特朗普似乎提出要将美国公民关押在萨尔瓦多的监狱里——这一想法明显违法——马凯特大学法学院的民调显示，64%的共和党人支持这一想法。
这里存在一个疑问：共和党选民基础到底有多喜欢这些主张，还是仅仅因为他们支持的总统提出了这些主张，才表示喜欢。
但这凸显了特朗普任期内的一个 broader 核心主题。在过去几年里，特朗普已经让他的支持者在口头上认可了多项非法主张、可能的战争罪、威胁消灭一个文明，以及似乎随心所欲地动用美国军方的行为。
通过一系列不断升级的挑衅行为，他拓展了奥弗顿窗口（注：即主流舆论可接受的范围），并利用这个新拓展的空间。他借此增强了自己的权力，并让右翼人士接受了曾经被视为不可想象的行动和威胁。
或许没有什么比共和党人愿意在一场真实发生的伊朗战争中接受的那些假设性主张，更能直观地体现这一点了。
The extreme positions Trump proposes — and Republicans embrace
2026-04-18T08:00:56.843Z / CNN
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
PUBLISHED Apr 18, 2026, 4:00 AM ET
Donald Trump The Middle East Election polls Human rights
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before walking to board Marine One, as he departs from the South Lawn of the White House on April 16.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
President Donald Trump this month threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure in ways that might well be war crimes. Then he threatened something much more severe, saying: “A whole civilization will die tonight.”
The threats shocked the political world and even some prominent Trump allies who suddenly distanced themselves.
But to the Republican base, they were no big deal, according to polls released this week. In fact, they were actually good on balance.
And it’s merely the latest example of Trump proposing rather extreme ideas that are then quickly embraced by much of the GOP base.
A Quinnipiac University poll this week showed 66% of Republicans said they supported bombing power plants and other civilian infrastructure in Iran if negotiations do not succeed. (The survey question did not mention that this would likely be a war crime.)
And it was pretty much only Republicans; Democrats opposed the idea 95%-3%, and independents also opposed it overwhelmingly, 77-18%.
The numbers were virtually the same across the board when it came to Trump’s social media threat to end Iranian civilization, which 62% of Republicans labeled “acceptable” but others overwhelmingly said was not.
(It’s worth emphasizing that the poll question was about making the threat, not following through on it.)
A CBS News-YouGov poll over the weekend showed something similar.
After displaying the social-media post in full, twice as many Republicans said they liked it (nearly half) as said they disliked it (about 2 in 10). Another 31% were neutral.
If this feels familiar, there’s a reason for that. Over and over again for a decade, Trump has floated ideas that almost seemed intended to test his base’s loyalty — to see just how far they would go to stand by him.
They’ve repeatedly shown they’ll go plenty far, even on ideas widely rejected by independents.
When Trump said in 2023 that he wanted to be a dictator, but only for a day, he later said it was just a joke. But Republicans still signed off on the idea; a University of Massachusetts Amherst poll showed 74% of them said it would be a “good thing.”
When Trump around the same time said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO allies that don’t pay enough, Quinnipiac showed Republicans about evenly split on the idea. While 38% were in favor, 39% opposed it. The rest didn’t take a position.
Trump has often floated or joked about running for a third term, even though it would be unconstitutional. A Reuters-Ipsos poll a year ago showed more Republicans opposed it than supported it, but 44% still supported Trump pursuing this patently unlawful idea.
As Trump has taken office and pursued a more expansive and often-militaristic foreign policy, he’s proposed a number of ideas that can safely be called outside-the-box — and that Republicans soon embraced.
When Trump briefly floated the US taking over Gaza last year, Quinnipiac showed 49% of Republicans endorsed the idea. And 41% supported it even when a Reuters-Ipsos poll noted it would involve “resettling Palestinians elsewhere” — also known as ethnic cleansing.
Another Reuters-Ipsos poll last month showed 58% of Republicans supported striking cartels inside Mexico, as Trump has often floated, even while qualifying that it would be “without the permission of the Mexican government.” In other words, it would be an act of war against a neighbor.
And that wasn’t a one-off.
As Trump has floated military action in a bevy of other countries in recent months, a Marist College poll in January showed Republicans embraced pretty much all of it. At least 7 in 10 endorsed military action in Mexico, Cuba, Iran and Venezuela. It was less popular for Greenland, but 57% supported that, too.
And after Trump a year ago seemed to float incarcerating US citizens in prison in El Salvador — an idea that appears transparently illegal — a Marquette University Law School poll showed 64% of Republicans endorsed the idea.
There is some question here about just how much Trump’s base truly likes these ideas, versus saying they like them because the president they like is proposing them.
But it illustrates a broader theme of Trump’s presidency. In just the last few years, Trump has gotten his supporters to rhetorically sign off on several illegal ideas, potential war crimes, threatening the extermination of a civilization and doing seemingly whatever he wants with the US military.
Through a steadily broadening set of provocations, he’s expanded the Overton window and then exploited that newly expanded window. He’s used that to grow his power and get right-wing buy-in on actions and threats that were once considered unthinkable.
And perhaps nothing drives that home like the hypotheticals Republicans are willing to embrace in a very real war in Iran.
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