2026-04-15T17:07:20.798Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
分析报道：
亚伦·布莱克
3小时前
发布于 2026年4月15日 美国东部时间下午1:07
唐纳德·特朗普 中东 选举民调 国家安全
查看所有话题
2026年4月11日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在佛罗里达州迈阿密出席UFC赛事。
朱莉娅·德马雷·尼基森/彭博社/盖蒂图片社
在周三播出的最新采访中，特朗普称伊朗战争“已接近结束”。（不过听听就好，毕竟他在五周前还说过这场战争“已基本结束”。）
他还可以说是迄今为止最全面地阐述了自己的观点，称这场战争值得付出能源价格飙升和股市波动的代价。他表示，这一切都是为了阻止伊朗获得核武器。
“为了阻止这一点，当然是值得的，”特朗普在接受福克斯商业电视台采访时称，油价的上涨幅度并未达到他此前的预期。
“我认为我们做得非常好，”他补充道，“也许人们会认为我们很快就会赢得这场战争。我们已经彻底在军事上击败了他们。”
但这种对局势的乐观看法与美国民众的认知并不相符。
事实上，这场战争的支持率正随时间推移不断下滑。随着我们获得更广泛的民调数据，我们也越来越清楚民众不满的原因。
以下是相关的几个关键点。
美国人认为战争目标未达成
尽管特朗普宣称战争即将结束且已取得成功，但美国民众并不这么认为。他们当然也不认为这是一场战略上的胜利。
上周末的哥伦比亚广播公司新闻/舆观民调显示，36%的受访者认为军事行动取得了成功，另有31%的人表示目前尚无法判断，而33%的人认为军事行动并不成功。
但在战略层面，美国人的认可度更低。仅有25%的人认为这场战争是战略上的成功——远低于42%认为其失败的受访者比例。
在关键目标方面，绝大多数美国人认为目标并未实现：
- 仅有7%的人认为伊朗领导人如今更亲美（尽管特朗普声称伊朗有一个“相当通情达理”的“新政权”）。
- 仅有8%的人认为这场战争阻止了德黑兰威胁其他国家（尽管特朗普称这场战争“阻止”了伊朗接管或摧毁中东地区）。
- 仅有11%的人认为这场战争永久中止了伊朗的核计划（尽管特朗普表示这是首要目标，并称他在6月对伊朗的空袭“摧毁”了其核设施）。
就连特朗普可能也会承认，最后一点仍在推进中。但另一个关键问题是，美国人根本不认为这场战争能够实现这一目标。
事实上，他们甚至不认为这场战争在这方面会带来净积极影响。
皮尤研究中心近期的一项民调显示，仅有27%的美国人认为这场战争最终会让伊朗发展核武器的可能性“降低”。这一比例与认为“更高”的27%持平（另有40%的受访者持中立态度）。
民众看不到战争的益处
特朗普在福克斯商业电视台的采访中提出的论调是，当下的代价将换来长期的益处。
但美国人不仅担忧短期的经济成本，也看不到长期的安全回报。
本周最新的益普索民调显示，51%的受访者认为战争的益处不值得付出代价，仅有24%的人持相反看法（其余受访者持中立态度）。
该民调还询问了战争是否会“从长期来看”改善美国的国家安全。仅有26%的人认为会改善国家安全，而41%的人认为实际上会让情况变得更糟。
马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校的一项民调也显示了类似的怀疑态度。
仅有约30%的美国人认为这场战争会让世界“更稳定”，而有一半的人对此表示反对。
共和党人热情不高
尽管自称“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的支持者支持这场战争，但越来越多的证据表明，更广泛意义上的特朗普选民基础对此相当怀疑。
在多项民调中，20%或25%的共和党人和特朗普选民总体上不认可特朗普对战争的处理方式。但还有态度模糊的中间群体：这些人并未 outright反对战争，但也没真正看出其中的意义。
益普索民调显示，仅有57%的共和党人认为战争会从长期来看改善美国的国家安全，仅有55%的人认为成本效益分析是值得的。
同样，哥伦比亚广播公司的民调显示，仅有56%的共和党人认为这场战争在战略利益方面取得了成功。
在这两项民调中，其余大多数受访者都选择了中间立场。显然，相当一部分特朗普的选民基础并未被说服。
对特朗普的信任度正在下降
尽管特朗普日益倾向于采取更军事化、更具干预主义色彩的外交政策，但美国人对他落实这一政策的信心有所减弱。
皮尤民调中的一些数据和图表相当惊人：
- 对特朗普在伊朗问题上做出正确决策缺乏信心的美国人比例，从2024年竞选期间的50%，上升至6月对伊朗核设施发动空袭后的56%，再到3月的64%。
- 在乌克兰战争和应对中国问题上，也出现了类似的信任度下滑趋势。
- 仅有66%的共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士至少“有点”信任特朗普处理伊朗问题的能力。
同样，哥伦比亚广播公司的民调显示，仅有23%的美国人“非常”信任特朗普在伊朗问题上做出正确决策。另有18%的人“有点”信任，而约60%的人“不太信任”或“完全不信任”。
战争加剧了特朗普的通胀问题
或许对特朗普和共和党在中期选举前最具政治杀伤力的是通胀问题，受石油市场冲击，通胀率刚刚出现反弹。
美国人原本就对特朗普在这一问题上的表现不满——而战争爆发后，他的支持率进一步下滑。近期民调显示，不认可他处理通胀问题的美国人比例分别达到67%、68%、69%和71%。
70%的美国人在任何问题上都能达成共识的情况相当罕见，但特朗普在通胀问题上的失败如今就是其中之一。
这似乎也影响到了他在经济问题上的总体支持率。两周前的一项美国有线电视新闻网民调显示，他在经济问题上的支持率降至31%——低于他本人或乔·拜登任内的任何时期。
5 takeaways from recent Iran polls that look increasingly grim for Trump
2026-04-15T17:07:20.798Z / CNN
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
3 hr ago
PUBLISHED Apr 15, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Donald Trump The Middle East Election polls National security
See all topics
President Donald Trump attends a UFC event in Miami, Florida, on April 11.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/Pool/Getty Images
President Donald Trump in a new interview airing Wednesday said the Iran war was “very close to over.” (Take that for what it’s worth, though, since it’s been five weeks since he said it was “very complete”.)
He also made arguably his most extensive case to date that the war has been worth the spike in energy prices and the stock market volatility. He said it was all about stopping Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon.
“To stop that, it was certainly worthwhile,” Trump told Fox Business Network, arguing oil prices haven’t risen as much as he thought they might.
“I think we’re doing very well,” he added. “And maybe people assume we’re going to win this thing pretty soon. We’ve beaten them militarily, totally.”
But this is a rosy view of the situation that doesn’t match Americans’ perceptions.
In fact, the war is getting more unpopular over time. And as we’ve gotten more extensive polling, we learning more about why that is.
Here are a few key points on that front.
Americans don’t see objectives being met
While Trump has declared the war is close to being over and a success, Americans don’t see it that way. And they certainly don’t see it as a strategic success.
A CBS News-YouGov poll over the weekend showed 36% said the military operations were successful. Another 31% said it was too soon to say, while 33% said they were not successful.
But Americans were even less sold on the strategic side of things. Just 25% said the war was a strategic success — far less than the 42% who deemed it a failure.
And when it comes to key objectives, Americans overwhelmingly don’t see them being met:
- Just 7% said Iran’s leaders are more pro-US now (despite Trump claiming that Iran has a “new regime” that is “pretty reasonable.”)
- Just 8% said the war has prevented Tehran from threatening other countries (despite Trump saying the war “stopped” Iran from taking over or taking out the Middle East.)
- And just 11% said it has permanently stopped Iran’s nuclear program (despite Trump saying that’s the No. 1 goal and having said his June strikes in Iran “obliterated” its nuclear facilities.)
Even Trump might concede that last one is a work in progress. But the other key point is that Americans just don’t think the war is going to accomplish it.
In fact, they don’t even think the war has been a net positive on that front.
A recent Pew Research Center poll showed only 27% of Americans said the war would ultimately make Iran’s development of a nuke “less likely.” That’s the same as the 27% who viewed it as “more likely.” (Another 4 in 10 were neutral.)
They don’t see the benefits
Trump’s pitch, as he laid it out in the Fox Business interview, was that today’s costs will be worth the long-term benefits.
But Americans aren’t just worried about the short-term economic costs; they also don’t see the long-term security payoff.
A new Ipsos poll this week showed 51% said the benefits of the war wouldn’t be worth the costs, compared to just 24% who said they would. (The rest were neutral.)
It also asked whether the war would make US national security better or worse “over the long run.” Just 26% said it would improve national security, while 41% said it would actually make it worse.
And a University of Massachusetts Amherst poll showed similar skepticism.
Only about 3 in 10 Americans said the war would make the world “more stable,” compared to half who disagreed.
Republicans are not enthusiastic
Despite self-identified MAGA supporters backing this war, evidence is building that Trump’s base, defined more broadly, is quite skeptical.
In many polls, 20% or 25% of Republicans and Trump voters generally disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war. But there’s also the mushy middle. These people don’t outright oppose the war, but don’t really see the point, either.
The Ipsos poll showed just 57% of Republicans thought the war would improve US national security over the long run, and just 55% said the cost-benefit analysis would be worth it.
Similarly, the CBS poll showed just 56% of Republicans said the war has been successful in terms of strategic interests.
In both cases, most of the rest chose a middle-ground option. A huge chunk of Trump’s base is clearly not bought in.
Faith in Trump is dropping
Even as Trump has leaned increasingly into a more militaristic and interventionist foreign policy, Americans have less confidence in him to carry that out.
The Pew poll features some pretty staggering charts and numbers:
- The percentage of Americans who are not confident that Trump will make good decisions on Iran has increased from 50% during the 2024 campaign to 56% after the June strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities to 64% in March.
- We’ve seen similar increases when it comes to the war in Ukraine and dealing with China.
- Only 66% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are at least “somewhat” confident in Trump’s handling of Iran.
Similarly, the CBS poll showed just 23% of Americans had “a lot” of confidence in Trump to make the right decisions about Iran. Another 18% had “some,” while about 6 in 10 had “not much” or “none.”
The war has exacerbated Trump’s inflation problem
Perhaps most politically troubling for Trump and the GOP ahead of the midterms is inflation, which just jumped amid the oil shock.
Americans were already down on Trump on that issue — and that’s worsened for him since the war started. The percentage of Americans who disapprove of his handling of inflation has been at 67%, 68%, 69% and 71% in recent polls.
It’s pretty rare that 7 in 10 Americans agree on anything, but Trump’s failure on inflation is now one of them.
And it appears to be bleeding into the president’s overall number on the economy. A CNN poll two weeks ago showed his approval rating on that issue dropping to 31% — lower than it ever was for either himself or Joe Biden.
发表回复