更新于：2026年2月11日 / 美国东部时间下午12:33 / CBS新闻
一名前FBI探员认为，在南希·格思里住宅外被监控拍到的人“并非职业罪犯”。
“然而，要实施这样的恶性犯罪，他们必须具备犯罪心理，”FBI退休高级特别探员兰斯·莱辛（Lance Leising）周三在接受《CBS早间新闻》采访时表示。
南希·格思里是《今日》节目主持人萨凡纳·格思里的母亲。据报道，她在10天前因未参加教堂活动而失踪，官员们认为她是在夜间从图森家中被绑架的。
莱辛从周二官方发布的视频和图像中提取线索，这些资料显示，在南希·格思里失踪当晚，一名蒙面人员出现在其住宅外。此人戴着手套、背着背包，似乎还持有武器。
莱辛称此人的行为“极其业余”。
“如果你查看卡什·帕特尔（Kash Patel）发布的两张静态照片和视频，其中一张里，涉事者甚至没有携带背包或所谓的武器，”莱辛说，“这在我看来意味着，他先是靠近门口，然后转身取了背包和武器，之后才返回。”
他还表示，涉事者握持明显武器的方式“很不寻常”，“看起来一点也不专业，非常业余”。
美国联邦调查局发布的南希·格思里案件监控视频中的两名涉事者图像。FBI
莱辛还分析了此人接近南希·格思里家门的方式，指出对方头部低垂，似乎察觉到头顶可能有监控摄像头。
“他们似乎对门口有门铃摄像头感到意外——任何进行过侦察的人都会知道那里有摄像头，”他说，“然后他们采取了一个非理性的步骤：从前院抓取一丛灌木或杂草，试图将其放在门前遮挡摄像头。”
他还强调了涉事者佩戴的手套，描述其为“超大尺寸，可能有多层”，这会让其难以使用携带的明显武器。
美国联邦调查局发布的南希·格思里案件监控视频中的两名涉事者图像。FBI
“我确实认为，这给调查人员带来希望——如果此人在门口作案时如此业余，那么他们很可能还犯有其他错误，而调查人员正希望找到这个突破口，”莱辛补充道。
另一位退休FBI特别探员杰森·帕克（Jason Pack）也指出，视频显示了疑似武器的位置以及涉事者的步态，“他看起来移动得并不快”。
“所有这些信息都会告诉侧写师他们需要寻找的线索，并有助于缩小时间线范围，”他说。
当局拘留一名男子
当局称，周二在一次交通拦截中，他们拘留了一名与格思里案件相关的人员。一名仅愿自称“卡洛斯”（Carlos）的男子随后告诉记者，他已被拘留并释放，称“我什么都没做……我是无辜的。”执法部门尚未证实卡洛斯是否就是他们所说的被拘留者。
莱辛表示：“很多时候，你会拘留一些人，将他们带回来问话，他们可能不是嫌疑人，但可能持有某些线索，希望调查人员能从这些线索中找到突破口。”
Why one ex-FBI agent thinks the person in Nancy Guthrie surveillance video is not a career criminal
Updated on: February 11, 2026 / 12:33 PM EST / CBS News
A former FBI agent believes the person who was caught on video outside Nancy Guthrie’s home is “not a career criminal.”
“However, they have to have a criminal mindset in order to commit a heinous crime like this,” Lance Leising, a retired supervisory special agent with the FBI, told “CBS Mornings” on Wednesday.
Nancy Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, was reported missing 10 days ago after she missed church, and officials believe she was abducted overnight from her Tucson home.
Leising has drawn clues from video and images that were released by authorities on Tuesday, showing a masked individual outside Nancy Guthrie’s home the night she disappeared. The person is wearing gloves, a backpack and what appears to be a weapon.
Leising called the person’s actions “extremely amateurish.”
“If you look at the two still photos and the videos that Kash Patel released, one of them, the subject is not even wearing the backpack or the weapon, potential weapon,” Leising said. “So what that says to me is he approached that door and turned around and got the backpack and got the weapon and then came back.”
He also said the apparent weapon was held in “an unusual way” and “it does not look very professional, it looks very amateur.”
Two of the images released by the FBI of a subject seen on surveillance video in the Nancy Guthrie case. FBI
Leising also analyzed how the person approached Nancy Guthrie’s door, noting that their head was down as if they expected a surveillance camera above them.
“They almost feel surprised that there is a doorbell camera there, which anyone who has done any reconnaissance would know that’s there,” he said.
“Then they take some irrational step to grab a bush or a weed from the front yard and then put that in front as they try to take it off,” he noted.
He also highlighted the gloves the person was wearing, describing them as “oversized, maybe multiple layers,” which would make it difficult to use the apparent weapon he was carrying.
Two of the images released by the FBI of a subject seen on surveillance video in the Nancy Guthrie case. FBI
“I do think that it gives investigators hope that if they’re amateur at the door, they’ve made other mistakes, and they’re looking for that break,” Leising added.
Jason Pack, a retired FBI special agent, also noted that the video shows where an apparent weapon is located and the person’s gait, adding “he doesn’t appear to be moving very quickly.”
“All of those things will tell profilers certain things that they’re gonna look for and kind of narrow that timeline down,” he said.
Authorities release detained man
Authorities said they detained a person in connection with the Guthrie case on Tuesday during a traffic stop. A man, who only wanted to be identified as Carlos, later told reporters that he had been detained and released, and that “I didn’t do anything. … I’m innocent.” Law enforcement has not confirmed if Carlos was the person they said they had detained.
Leising said “a lot of times you’re going to detain people, bring them in for questioning and they may not be the suspect but they might have a piece, and hopefully the investigators got that piece.”
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