2026年2月20日 美国东部时间凌晨5:03 / 路透社
作者：露西亚·穆蒂卡尼
People shop at a Costco store in the Staten Island borough of New York City, U.S., January 16, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- 摘要
- 国内生产总值预计以3.0%的速度增长
- 贸易和库存是GDP增长预估的不确定因素
华盛顿，2月20日（路透社）- 尽管减税和人工智能投资预计将推动今年经济活动，但由于去年政府停摆的干扰以及消费者支出的放缓，美国第四季度经济增长可能放缓至仍相当强劲的水平。
在连续两个季度强劲增长之后，国内生产总值（GDP）预计将出现放缓。美国商务部将于周五发布第四季度GDP的初步预估数据，该数据因创纪录的43天政府停摆而延迟。
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该报告预计将凸显经济在就业市场疲软中持续扩张，以及”K型”经济特征——高收入家庭表现良好，而低收入消费者在进口关税引发的高通胀和工资增长停滞的背景下挣扎。这些情况已造成经济学家和唐纳德·特朗普总统的反对者所谓的”负担能力危机”。
“就增长而言，我们今年年底仍将保持强劲，但对大多数美国人来说，这种增长并没有真正转化为他们感受到的实际好处，”咨询公司毕马威（KPMG）首席经济学家戴安娜·斯旺克（Diane Swonk）表示。
GDP可能增长3.0%：调查显示
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路透社对经济学家的调查预测，上季度GDP可能以3.0%的年增长率增长，而第三季度增速为4.4%。然而，这项调查是在周四公布的数据之前完成的，该数据显示12月贸易逆差扩大至五个月高位。
贸易逆差连续第二个月恶化，导致亚特兰大联邦储备银行将其GDP预估从3.6%下调至3.0%。
无党派的国会预算办公室（CBO）估计，政府停摆将通过减少联邦雇员提供的服务、降低联邦商品和服务支出以及临时削减补充营养援助计划（SNAP）福利，使第四季度GDP减少1.5个百分点。
国会预算办公室估计，GDP下降的大部分最终将得到恢复，但70亿至140亿美元将无法恢复。经济学家估计，2025年经济增长2.2%，而2024年为2.8%。去年仅新增181,000个就业岗位，是自2009年大衰退以来疫情期间以外最少的，低于2024年的145.9万个。
“一系列冲击同时影响美国经济，”安永-帕特纳（EY-Parthenon）首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科（Gregory Daco）表示，”一方面，价格上涨、关税、贸易限制和移民减少带来拖累；另一方面，人工智能投资和股市持续强劲势头为较富裕消费者的持续支出提供动力。”
消费者支出增长可能放缓
消费者支出增长预计将从第三季度的强劲3.5%放缓。经济学家表示，支出主要由高收入家庭推动，而通货膨胀侵蚀购买力导致储蓄减少。
加拿大丰业银行（BMO Capital Markets）高级经济学家萨尔·瓜蒂埃里（Sal Guatieri）表示：”变富有是一回事，但大多数家庭依赖收入来支付账单，而实际可支配收入在本季度几乎停滞。”
经济学家预计，由于减税，今年退税金额可能更大，这将为消费者支出提供助力。商业投资预计将保持稳健，大部分与人工智能相关。12月进口激增部分是由于资本货物（主要是计算机配件和电信设备）的进口增加，这与数据中心建设热潮以支持人工智能发展有关。
这应能抵消贸易对GDP增长的任何拖累。
经济学家估计，包括数据中心、半导体、软件和研发在内的人工智能，在2025年前三个季度占GDP增长的三分之一，从而减轻了关税和移民减少的影响。
“这一传统上在经济中占比很小的行业做出了重大贡献，”安永-帕特纳的达科表示，”这也是贸易数据波动的关键来源，因为我们在这里建设和创造的许多东西都需要进口。”
经济学家估计，在连续两个季度帮助推动增长后，贸易对GDP的贡献可能很小或为零。库存是另一个不确定因素，已连续两个季度对GDP产生减损。
住宅投资预计连续第四个季度收缩，因为建筑商和潜在购房者难以承受更高的借贷成本。
这份陈旧的报告可能不会对货币政策产生影响。但美联储官员可能会关注与GDP报告同时发布的12月个人消费支出（PCE）通胀数据。
路透社调查的经济学家预测，剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，PCE通胀将上升0.3%。11月核心PCE通胀环比上升0.2%。预计核心PCE通胀同比增长2.9%，11月同比为2.8%。美国央行的通胀目标为2%。
Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家路易·克兰道尔（Lou Crandall）表示：”自2024年年中以来，核心通胀的同比增长率实质上没有进展。许多美联储官员预计未来几个月至少会有一些改善，但他们希望看到实际数据中体现这一点。”
编辑：罗德·尼克尔斯
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US economic growth likely slowed to a still-brisk pace in fourth quarter
February 20, 2026 5:03 AM UTC / Reuters
By Lucia Mutikani
节点运行失败
People shop at a Costco store in the Staten Island borough of New York City, U.S., January 16, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Gross domestic product forecast increasing at 3.0% rate
- Trade, inventories wild cards to GDP growth estimate
WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth likely slowed to a still-solid pace in the fourth quarter because of disruptions from last year’s government shutdown and a moderation in consumer spending, though tax cuts and investment in artificial intelligence were expected to drive activity this year.
The anticipated slowdown in gross domestic product would follow back-to-back quarters of robust growth. The Commerce Department will publish on Friday its advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, which was delayed by the record 43-day government shutdown.
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The report is expected to highlight a jobless economic expansion as well as a “K-shaped” economy, where upper-income households are doing well while lower-income consumers are struggling amid high inflation from import tariffs and stalling wage growth. Those conditions have created what economists and President Donald Trump’s opponents call an affordability crisis.
“We’ll end the year still on a solid note in terms of growth, but it doesn’t really translate to feel as good as it looks on paper to most Americans,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at consulting firm KPMG.
GDP LIKELY INCREASED 3.0%: SURVEY
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GDP probably increased at a 3.0% annualized rate last quarter after accelerating at a 4.4% pace in the July-September quarter, a Reuters survey of economists predicted. The survey was, however, completed before data on Thursday showing the trade deficit widening to a five-month high in December.
The second straight monthly deterioration in the trade deficit led the Atlanta Federal Reserve to cut its GDP estimate to a 3.0% rate from a 3.6% pace.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated the government shutdown would subtract 1.5 percentage points from fourth-quarter GDP through fewer services provided by federal workers, lower federal spending on goods and services and a temporary reduction in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits.
The CBO estimated most of the decline in GDP would eventually be recovered, though between $7 billion and $14 billion would not. Economists estimated the economy grew 2.2% in 2025 after expanding 2.8% in 2024. Only 181,000 jobs were added last year, the fewest outside the pandemic since the 2009 Great Recession, and down from 1.459 million in 2024.
“You have a confluence of shocks affecting the U.S. economy,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. “You have on the one hand the drag from higher prices, tariffs, trade restrictions and reduced immigration, but also the boost from AI investment and the continued strong momentum in terms of stock prices supporting ongoing spending by the more affluent consumers.”
GROWTH IN CONSUMER SPENDING LIKELY SLOWED
Growth in consumer spending is expected to have slowed from the third quarter’s brisk 3.5% pace. Economists say spending has largely been driven by higher-income households and has been at the expense of saving as inflation eroded buying power.
“Getting richer is one thing, but most households rely on incomes to pay bills, and real disposable income pretty much stalled in the quarter,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Consumer spending could get a tailwind from what economists anticipate will be larger tax refunds this year because of tax cuts. A solid pace of business investment is expected, mostly related to AI. The jump in imports in December was partly driven by capital goods, mostly computer accessories and telecommunications equipment amid a data center construction boom to power AI.
That should offset any drag on GDP growth from trade.
Economists estimated AI, including data centers, semiconductors, software and research and development, accounted for a third of GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, blunting the hit from tariffs and reduced immigration.
“It’s a significant contribution from a sector that traditionally has represented a small share of the economy,” said EY-Parthenon’s Daco. “It’s also been a key source of volatility in the trade data, because a lot of what we are building here and creating is imported.”
Economists estimated that trade made little or no contribution to GDP after helping to boost growth for two straight quarters. Inventories were another wild card, having subtracted from GDP for two consecutive quarters.
Residential investment is forecast to have contracted for the fourth quarter in a row as builders and prospective homebuyers struggled with higher borrowing costs.
The stale report will probably have no impact on monetary policy. But Federal Reserve officials are likely to keep an eye on December’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data, due to be released at the same time as the GDP report.
Economists polled by Reuters forecast PCE inflation, excluding the volatile food and energy components, rising 0.3%. Core PCE inflation rose 0.2% in November from the previous month. Core PCE inflation was projected to have increased 2.9% year-on-year after rising 2.8% in November. The U.S. central bank has a 2% inflation target.
“The year-on-year growth rate of the core has shown essentially no progress since mid-2024,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP. “Many Fed officials anticipate at least some improvement in the coming months, but they will want to see that show up in the actual numbers.”
Editing by Rod Nickel
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