作者：丹尼尔·戴尔，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）| 发布时间：2026年2月21日，美国东部时间上午6:00
周四和周五发布的两项新经济数据，进一步戳破了总统唐纳德·特朗普关于其关税政策影响的胜利叙事。
周四早些时候发布的数据表明，特朗普严重夸大了关税对贸易逆差的影响。周五早些时候发布的数据则显示，他同样严重夸大了2025年第四季度的经济增长。
周五晚些时候，最高法院推翻了特朗普的多项关税措施。但其他关税仍然有效，特朗普迅速表示，他计划根据另一部法律，用新关税替代法院宣布违法的那些关税。
2025年贸易逆差下降0.2%，而非所谓的“78%”
多年来，特朗普一直强调贸易逆差——即美国进出口价值之间的差额——作为美国被其他国家“剥削”的例证（许多经济学家不同意他的这一描述）。周三晚间，他在社交媒体上发布了一条庆祝信息。
“由于对其他公司和国家征收关税，美国贸易逆差减少了78%”，这条全大写的帖子开头写道。
然而，第二天早上，美国经济分析局公布了2025年实际商品和服务贸易逆差。该数字与2024年几乎持平，仅下降0.2%——远非特朗普宣称的“78%”降幅。而受特朗普全球关税影响的商品贸易逆差与2024年相比反而增长了2.1%。
特朗普的“78%”并非凭空捏造，但仍然具有欺骗性。他引用的是2025年10月过时的短期数据，当时贸易逆差比2025年1月低78%。专家当时警告称，10月的大幅下降是短暂的，是黄金和药品贸易临时波动的结果，事实确实如此。
特朗普周三的帖子还错误地暗示关税由外国支付。关税是由美国进口商而非外国出口商支付的，进口商往往会将部分成本转嫁给消费者。虽然外国出口商有时可能会降低价格以保持产品竞争力，但各类分析发现，特朗普任期内实施的关税成本绝大多数由美国企业和美国消费者共同承担。
（照片：2026年2月20日，华盛顿特区白宫布雷迪新闻简报室，美国媒体成员举手向美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提问。[曼德尔·恩甘/法新社/盖蒂图片社]）
2025年第四季度经济增长1.4%，而非“5.6%”
周五，美国经济分析局发布了另一组关键数据——实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长预估。这些数据同样与特朗普所吹嘘的数字相去甚远。
特朗普在1月底的世界经济论坛上表示：“第四季度增长率预计为5.4%，远高于除我和少数人外任何人的预测。”他在1月晚些时候的内阁会议和《华尔街日报》专栏文章中进一步说明，他指的是亚特兰大联邦储备银行模型对2025年第四季度的预测。随后，2月初接受全国广播公司（NBC）采访时，他听起来像是已经实现了5.6%的增长，称：“我对此感到非常自豪：5.6%。要知道，尽管有停摆，我们的GDP仍达到了5.6%。”
然而，在撰写专栏文章、召开内阁会议和接受采访时，亚特兰大联储模型已将2025年第四季度增长预测下调至4.2%。其他各种预测甚至更低。与特朗普对全国广播公司的评论相反，预测不是现实。
周五发布的数据显示，他的“5.6%”说法与现实差距有多大。2025年第四季度美国经济实际年增长率仅为1.4%，远低于2025年第三季度4.4%的增长。
秋季政府停摆是这一疲软数据的重要因素。尽管如此，特朗普仍声称尽管有停摆，经济增长仍达5.6%，这显然不正确。
至于特朗普周四在佐治亚州关于经济的演讲中含糊其辞的说法——“一年前在拜登政府时期我们的国家死气沉沉，但现在我们是全球最热的经济体”——新的全年数据显示，美国2025年经济增长仅为2.2%，低于拜登政府的每一年，以及特朗普第一任期内除2020年（新冠疫情爆发年）外的每一年。
Analysis: These two new economic numbers blew a hole in Trump’s rosy narrative
By Daniel Dale, CNN | Published Feb 21, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Two new pieces of economic data, one released Thursday and one released Friday, blew another hole in President Donald Trump’s triumphant narrative about the effects of his tariffs.
The figures released early Thursday showed Trump had wildly overstated the impact of the tariffs on the trade deficit. The figures released early Friday showed he also had wildly exaggerated economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The Supreme Court struck down many of Trump’s tariffs later on Friday. But other tariffs remain in place, and Trump quickly said he plans to replace the ones the court declared illegal with new tariffs under a different law.
The trade deficit was down 0.2% in 2025, not down ‘78%’
Trump has for years highlighted the trade deficit – the difference between the value of US imports and exports – as a supposed example of how the US is being “ripped off” by other countries. (Many economists disagree with his characterization.) On Wednesday evening, he posted a celebratory message on social media.
“THE UNITED STATES TRADE DEFICIT HAS BEEN REDUCED BY 78% BECAUSE OF THE TARIFFS BEING CHARGED TO OTHER COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES,” the all-caps post began.
The next morning, though, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed the actual 2025 trade deficit in goods and services. It was nearly identical to the 2024 deficit, down just 0.2% — nowhere close to Trump’s professed “78%” decline. And the trade deficit in goods, the items subject to Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, was up 2.1% compared to 2024.
Trump didn’t make up the “78%” figure out of thin air, but it was still deceptive. He was citing an out-of-date and short-term number from October 2025, when the trade deficit was 78% lower than it was in January 2025. Experts cautioned at the time that the sharp October drop would be fleeting, the result of temporary fluctuations in gold and pharmaceuticals trade, and it was.
Trump’s Wednesday post was also inaccurate in suggesting his tariffs are paid by foreign countries. Tariff payments are made by US importers, not foreign exporters, and those importers often pass on some of their costs to consumers. While foreign exporters may sometimes drop their prices to try to keep their products competitive, various analyses have found that the overwhelming majority of the costs of the tariffs Trump has imposed this term are being covered by a combination of US businesses and US consumers.
Members of the media raise their hands to ask questions to US President Donald Trump during a press conference in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 20, 2026. (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP via Getty Images)
Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images
Economic growth in fourth-quarter 2025 was 1.4%, not ‘5.6%’
The Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday released another key set of figures — estimates on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. These figures, too, were far from the number Trump had been touting.
Trump told the World Economic Forum in late January that “fourth-quarter growth is projected to be 5.4%, far greater than anybody other than myself and a few others had predicted.” He specified in a Cabinet meeting and a Wall Street Journal op-ed later in January that he was referring to a projection for the fourth quarter of 2025 from a model run by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Then, in an early-February interview with NBC, he made it sound like 5.6% growth had already been achieved, saying, “I’m very proud of it: 5.6%. You know, we have a GDP of 5.6 despite a shutdown.”
By the time of the op-ed, the Cabinet meeting and the interview, though, the Atlanta Fed’s model was down to a projection of 4.2% fourth-quarter 2025 growth. Various other forecasts were even lower than that. And contrary to Trump’s comment to NBC, forecasts aren’t reality.
The figures released Friday show just how far from reality his “5.6%” claim was. The economy actually grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, much slower than the 4.4% growth in the third quarter of 2025.
The fall government shutdown was a significant factor in the weak figure. Still, Trump claimed growth was 5.6% despite the shutdown, which wasn’t close to correct.
And what of Trump’s vague claim from a speech on the economy Thursday in Georgia, that “our country was dead” a year ago under former President Joe Biden, but “now we have the hottest country”? The US economy grew at just 2.2% in 2025, new full-year figures showed — lower than in every year of the Biden administration and every year of the first Trump administration other than 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic hit.
