发布时间：2026年3月14日，美国东部时间上午6:00 | 分析：扎卡里·B·沃尔夫
本文曾发表于CNN的《What Matters》新闻通讯。要将其发送到您的收件箱，请在此处免费注册。
拜登政府全力支持电动汽车（EV），而特朗普政府几乎对其持敌对态度。
福特曾将向电动汽车的转型称为新的“福特T型车时刻”，如今却在重组业务，承受195亿美元的损失，并从这场“革命”中退缩。
通用汽车也在缩减其电动汽车计划，克莱斯勒则按下了“重置”按钮。
与此同时，中国的创新进展让许多人不禁思考：假设消费者最终确实转向远离内燃机，美国公司是否会被甩在身后？
中国政府为其汽车行业制定了计划并坚持执行，而美国政府在连续的选举中却背道而驰。如今，唐纳德·特朗普总统已开始对伊朗发动战争，这推高了汽油价格。
我与负责报道汽车行业的克里斯·伊西多尔（Chris Isidore）进行了交谈，了解他的报道中美国汽车行业将如何应对这个反复无常的国家政治和不稳定的汽油价格。以下是我们通过电子邮件进行的对话，内容经过编辑以控制长度和风格。
电动汽车市场的“鞭打效应”
沃尔夫：拜登政府全力支持电动汽车，而特朗普政府则取消了政府支持。美国汽车行业如何应对这种“鞭打效应”？
伊西多尔：汽车制造商正在缩减电动汽车计划，但并未永久搁置。这是因为他们必须担心下一任政府会恢复一些更严格的排放法规，或者特朗普政府可能会在未来十年内阻止加利福尼亚州和其他多个州禁止销售传统汽油动力汽车。
此外，电动汽车需求在欧洲和亚洲持续增长，汽车制造商需要在全球范围内保持竞争力。同时，他们面临着来自中国汽车制造商的日益激烈的竞争，而中国目前主导着电动汽车市场。
伊朗战争会改变市场吗？
伊西多尔：可能不会。通常需要长期的汽油价格上涨才能改变消费者的购车习惯。2022年6月汽油价格达到每加仑5美元时，并没有出现大规模转向电动汽车的趋势。买家们意识到汽车是长期投资，而且他们认为当前的价格上涨可能只是短期现象。20世纪70年代持续的汽油价格上涨确实为日本的燃油效率高的进口车打开了市场，并占据了部分美国市场份额，但这些“外国”品牌要占据美国市场的多数份额仍花了几十年时间。即使突然出现对电动汽车的更多需求，汽车制造商也需要数年时间才能调整其产品线。
美国政治是否损害了美国汽车行业？
沃尔夫：可以说，近年来美国政治体系损害了美国汽车行业吗？
伊西多尔：是也不是。不断变化的关税政策不利于制定长期计划，而且不同地区的排放法规差异也难以协调。
但美国长期以来通过大规模道路建设支持驾驶需求，从而推动了汽车需求。毫无疑问，美国是全球汽车制造商最赚钱的市场。
即使像现代这样的公司需要为从韩国进口的汽车支付关税，美国市场仍然比其本土市场更有利可图。这部分原因是美国购车者的购买习惯，而非严格的政治政策。但政策确实认识到购车对公众的重要性。
电动汽车市场会继续增长吗？
沃尔夫：未来几年更多美国人会驾驶电动汽车吗？还是特朗普总统（和美国消费者偏好）实际上将电动汽车市场变成了美国的小众市场？
现在就断言电动汽车将仍是小众市场可能为时过早。但到下一个十年中期实现全电动化的计划肯定已被搁置。去年美国电动汽车总销量基本持平，由于许多买家在7500美元税收抵免于10月1日到期前赶在几个月内购买电动汽车，今年年初销量可能仍然疲软。但未来销售可能开始回升，尤其是如果汽车制造商如他们所说推出更便宜的电动汽车。
中国电动汽车真的更好吗？
沃尔夫：我一直看到有关中国电动汽车又好又便宜的报道，它们与手机和技术的集成度更高。美国电动汽车会迎头赶上吗？还是我们实际上正在将创新拱手让给中国？
伊西多尔：中国电动汽车目前显然领先市场。部分原因是中国电动汽车的需求远高于欧洲和美国。但我认为，称西方汽车制造商永久失去电动汽车市场给中国还为时过早。
关税是否创造了新的汽车就业机会？
沃尔夫：转到关税问题。特朗普承诺的汽车关税（不受最高法院最近限制其紧急权力的裁决影响）将开启美国制造业的新黄金时代。目前情况如何？
伊西多尔：总体而言，今年1月美国制造业就业人数减少了约60,000人，其中制造业就业岗位减少了83,000个。
所以，关税导致大量工厂投资和制造业回流的想法是一个神话。部分原因是关税推高了依赖进口投入的制造业成本，部分原因是人工智能提高了生产力，还有部分原因是在国内建厂需要很长时间。
尽管特朗普自上任以来多次谈到万亿美元的美国投资计划，但很少有制造商，尤其是汽车行业，宣布计划关闭海外工厂并将生产转移到美国，尤其是在短期内。
关税如何影响供应链？
沃尔夫：美国汽车行业与加拿大和墨西哥紧密相连。特朗普的贸易政策和重新谈判《美墨加协定》（USMCA）会改变当前体系吗？
伊西多尔：规则肯定会有变化。但汽车制造商仍在获得各种他们寻求的改变和豁免，以保持数十年以来的运营方式——零部件和车辆在两个北美边境自由流动。我认为，这些变化最终只会是边际调整，而非根本性变革，不会将所有汽车生产和零部件生产完全转移到美国，远离加拿大和墨西哥。
谁做得好，谁做得差？
沃尔夫：在特朗普政府下，哪些外国汽车公司最能融入美国市场？有公司离开吗？
伊西多尔：没有汽车制造商离开美国市场。正如之前所说，美国是汽车制造商最赚钱的市场。而且几乎所有外国汽车制造商都在美设有工厂——这并非因为关税或贸易规则，而是因为在市场附近生产汽车更合理。
特朗普政府时期，没有外国汽车制造商宣布大规模转向美国市场。丰田宣布计划增加对美国工厂的投资，但并未新建工厂。
20年后的美国汽车行业会是什么样子？
沃尔夫：你报道汽车行业多年，10年和20年后会是什么样子？
伊西多尔：中国汽车制造商可能在10年内（可能更早）在美国销售中国品牌的汽车。这将是一个重大变化，类似于过去欧洲和日本汽车制造商进入美国市场的情况。
行业内可能会出现更多合并，甚至中国企业收购一些主要西方汽车制造商。他们已经拥有沃尔沃，这一点可能不为大多数沃尔沃车主所知。
虽然美国在20年内可能无法实现全电动汽车的未来，但我认为传统纯汽油动力汽车将比现在少得多，混合动力车将变得更加重要，而电动汽车将继续获得适度的市场份额。
自动驾驶功能将变得更加普遍，但20年可能不足以让完全自动驾驶汽车完全取代人类驾驶的汽车。
拼车服务在美国行驶里程中的占比将继续增长，但个人拥有的车辆不会像固定电话那样被新技术完全取代。
Can American car companies survive American politics?
PUBLISHED Mar 14, 2026, 6:00 AM ET | Analysis by Zachary B. Wolf
A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.
The Biden administration was all in on electric vehicles. The Trump administration is all but hostile to them.
Ford used to call the transition to EVs a new Model T moment. Now it’s regrouping, taking a $19.5 billion hit and pulling back from the revolution.
GM is also retreating from its plans for EVs. Chrysler is hitting the “reset” button.
Meanwhile, innovation in China has many wondering whether US companies will be left behind, assuming consumers do ultimately pivot away from internal combustion engines.
China’s government formulated a plan for its auto industry and has stuck to it. The US government, in successive elections, has done the opposite of that. And now President Donald Trump has begun a war on Iran, which is spiking the price of gasoline.
I talked to Chris Isidore, who covers the auto industry for CNN, to see what his reporting says about how the US auto industry will cope with its country’s mercurial politics and the unreliable price of gas. Our conversation, conducted by email both before and after the war began, and edited for length and style, is below.
EV whiplash
WOLF:The Biden administration was all in on EVs. The Trump administration pulled the plug, ahem, on government support. How is the US car industry dealing with the whiplash?
ISIDORE:The automakers are pulling back on their EV plans but not shelving them permanently. That’s because they have to be concerned that the next administration will restore some of the tougher emissions rules. Or that the Trump administration will fail in its efforts to block California and and a number of other states from preventing the sale of traditional gasoline-powered cars at some point in the next decade.
It’s also because EV demand continues to grow in Europe and Asia, and the automakers need to be competitive worldwide. And they face growing competition from Chinese automakers, who now dominate the EV market.
Will the Iran war change the market?
ISIDORE:Probably not. It typically takes a prolonged gas price increase to change customers’ car buying habits. There was no large scale move towards EVs when gas prices hit $5 a gallon in June of 2022. Buyers recognize that a car is the proverbial long-term purchase and also that these are likely a shorter term increase in prices. The more prolonged increase in gas prices in the 1970s did open the door for fuel efficient imports from Japan to capture some US market share but it still took decades for that growth to have such “foreign” brands capture a majority of the US market. And even if there was suddenly more demand for EVs, it takes years for automakers to change their vehicle lineups.
Are US politics hurting the US auto industry?
WOLF:Is it fair to say that the US political system has hurt the US car industry in recent years?
ISIDORE:Yes and no. Ever-changing tariff rules are not helpful for making long-term plans. Nor is it easy to deal with different parts of the country having different emission rules.
But America has long supported driving through massive road construction, and thus the demand for automobiles. There is no doubt that the United States is the most profitable market for automakers on the planet.
That’s true even for companies like Hyundai, which has to pay tariffs on the cars imported from South Korea. The US is more profitable than its home market. That’s partly because of the buying habits of American car-buyers, not strictly political policy. But policy does recognize the importance of car-buying to the public.
Will the EV market continue to grow?
WOLF:Is the prediction still that more Americans will be driving EVs in the years to come, or has President Donald Trump (and US consumer preference) effectively turned the EV market into a niche thing in the US?
It’s probably too much to say EVs will remain a niche market. But the plans to have an all-electric future by the middle of next decade have definitely been put on hold. US EV sales overall last year were essentially flat. And they’re likely to remain soft in the early part of this year due to the rush of many buyers to purchase an EV in the months before the $7,500 tax credit expired on October 1. But sales could start to climb in the future, especially if automakers introduce cheaper EVs, as they are talking about doing.
Are Chinese EVs that much better?
———————————
WOLF:I keep reading about how good and cheap Chinese EVs are — more integrated with phones and technology. Will US EVs catch up or are we effectively ceding innovation to the Chinese?
ISIDORE:Chinese EVs clearly lead the market right now. And that’s helped partly by the massively greater demand for EVs in China than in Europe and the US. But I think it’s too much to say that Western automakers have lost the EV market to the Chinese permanently.
Are tariffs creating new auto jobs?
WOLF:Moving on the tariff issue. Trump promised auto tariffs — which are not affected by the recent Supreme Court decision limiting Trump’s emergency powers — would start a new golden age of American manufacturing. How’s that looking at the moment?
ISIDORE:Overall, the goods-producing sector of the economy was down about 60,000 jobs in January compared with a year earlier. Much of that was driven by the loss of 83,000 manufacturing jobs.
So the idea of tariffs leading to a massive investment in US factories and reshoring of manufacturing is a myth. Part of that is due to the fact that tariffs drive up the cost of manufacturing that depends on foreign inputs. Part of that is increased use of AI to increase productivity. And part of it is due to the fact that it takes a long time to build a factory here.
Despite Trump talking about trillions of dollars in plans to invest in the US since he took office, few manufacturers, especially in the auto industry, have announced plans to shut foreign plants and relocate production here, especially any time soon.
How will tariffs affect the supply chain?
—————————————–
WOLF:The US industry is specifically tied to both Canada and Mexico. Will Trump’s trade policy and the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) change that current system?
ISIDORE:There will certainly be changes in the rules. But the automakers do keep getting various changes and exemptions they sought to keep operating the way they have for several decades, with parts and vehicles moving freely across the two North American borders. I would imagine that the changes will end up being more in the margins than a fundamental change that moves all car production, and parts production by suppliers, solely to the US and away from Canada and Mexico.
Who is doing well and who is doing poorly navigating this?
WOLF:How are US car companies are currently dealing with the erratic American political system?
ISIDORE: For the most part they’re paying for the tariffs and having only a modest increase in costs being passed onto consumers. The price of vehicles is driven mostly by supply and demand and competition from rival companies. Not the cost of things like tariffs. If automakers could freely pass along all their costs to consumers, I would never have had to spend so much time writing about bankruptcies and bailouts 16 to 17 years ago.
But as much as the automakers are paying more due to tariffs, they’ve achieved savings of as much or more from no longer being subject to fines for exceeding emissions rules on the vehicles they sell. That means no longer spending billions to buy regulatory credits from automakers like Tesla. And it means they can discontinue some of the EV models and more fuel-efficient gas-powered models they were offering to get closer to meeting those emissions rules and concentrate on selling large trucks and SUVs, which are far more profitable.
WOLF:Which foreign car companies are doing the best job of integrating into the US market under Trump? Are any simply leaving?
ISIDORE:No automaker is leaving the US market. That’s because of what I said about this being the most profitable market for automakers. And because just about all of them operate plants here — not due to tariffs or trade rules, but because it makes sense to build cars close to the market in which you sell them.
And no foreign automaker has announced a massive shift to the US market under Trump. Toyota has announced plans to invest more in US plants. But it’s not building a new plant
What will the US auto industry look like in 20 years?
—————————————————–
WOLF:You’ve been covering the auto industry for a long time. What will it look like in 10 years and 20 years?
ISIDORE:Chinese automakers will likely be selling Chinese-branded cars here within 10 years. Likely sooner than that. That will be one of the more significant changes, similar to the entry of European and Japanese automakers in the past.
There will likely be more mergers within the industry, perhaps even the purchase of some major Western automaker by the Chinese. They already own Volvo, a fact few Volvo owners are probably aware of.
And while an all-electric future may no longer be reached in the US within 20 years, I suspect that traditional pure gasoline-powered cars will also be far less common than today — hybrids are going to become more important. And EVs will continue to gain modest market share.
And autonomous driving features will become more common, but I think that 20 years is too soon to see human-driven cars completely overtaken by fully autonomous cars.
Ride-hailing services will continue to have a growing share of miles traveled by Americans, but it’s not like the individually owned vehicles will go the way of the land-line telephone and be overtaken by new technology.