2026-03-18T14:03:00-0400 / CBS新闻
美联储周三维持基准利率不变，这是2026年第二次连续暂停加息。在政策声明中，美联储表示美国经济不确定性仍然高企，并补充称伊朗战争的影响也仍不明朗。
美联储将联邦基金利率——即银行间短期贷款利率——维持在当前3.5%至3.75%的区间内。这一维持利率不变的决定得到了投资者的广泛预期。
降息仍在考虑中？
美联储官员表示，他们仍预计2026年将降息一次，与去年12月的预测一致。通过维持今年和明年的降息预测，政策制定者似乎认为伊朗战争导致的能源价格飙升将对通胀和经济产生暂时性影响。
央行面临着美国经济前景更加模糊的局面，伊朗战争导致能源价格飙升并可能推高通胀。根据监测交易员情绪的CME美联储观察工具显示，在2月28日战争爆发前，经济学家曾预测美联储6月会议将降息，但现在这一可能性被认为微乎其微。
“美联储目前选择无视冲突的迷雾。肩负双重使命的美联储不会在供应冲击期间动摇利率政策。”哈里斯金融集团管理合伙人杰米·考克斯在美联储做出决定后通过电子邮件表示。
西北相互人寿保险公司股票首席投资组合经理马特·斯塔基通过电子邮件表示，维持2026年再降息一次的预测是”积极信号”。他补充道：”美联储似乎愿意容忍一些’暂时性’的能源通胀，并在今年晚些时候恢复降息。”
通胀预计将上升
美联储周三还发布了新的经济预测，称今年通胀率预计将比去年12月上次预测时略高。官员们现在预计到2026年底，通胀年率将达到2.7%，高于之前估计的2.4%。
美联储官员预计，剔除食品和能源等波动成本的核心通胀率也将在年底达到2.7%，高于之前预测的2.5%。
在周三下午讨论利率决定的新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调，伊朗战争对经济的冲击仍不明朗，包括对消费者的影响——消费者现在面临大幅上涨的汽油价格，最终可能削减其他领域的支出。
“我想强调的是，没有人知道，”鲍威尔表示。”如果我们经历长时间的高油价，将对消费造成压力，但我们不知道是否会发生这种情况。”
有迹象表明，在伊朗战争本月推高能源价格之前，通胀就已经保持粘性。周三，美国劳工部报告称，衡量消费者价格前通胀情况的生产者价格指数2月份同比上涨3.4%。这一涨幅是一年来最大的，超出了经济学家的预期。
“这不是美联储希望看到的生产者价格指数报告，”全国金融市场经济学家奥伦·克拉赫金在电子邮件中表示。”这份报告表明，即使在伊朗冲突爆发前，通胀就已经有加速迹象。”
与此同时，劳动力市场也面临逆风。2月份美国减少了92,000个工作岗位，这是一个意外的大幅挫折，此前经济学家预测将增加60,000个岗位。
鲍威尔的展望
在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔指出，经济在最近的逆风面前表现出韧性，他补充称，尽管通胀、伊朗战争和就业市场存在不确定性，他认为经济”表现相当不错”。
鲍威尔还表示，他打算在司法部调查结束前继续留任美联储理事会成员。他的美联储主席任期将于5月结束，尽管他可以作为FOMC成员继续任职至2028年1月。
“在调查完全结束之前，我没有离开理事会的打算，”他说。
上周，一名法官驳回了司法部对美联储发出的两份大陪审团传票，这些传票是美国检察官让娜·皮罗办公室对美联储大楼翻修的刑事调查的一部分，称这些传票是为了施压鲍威尔支持降息或辞职。皮罗表示将上诉这一决定。
特朗普总统多次呼吁鲍威尔降息，他在周三的社交媒体帖子中再次表达了这一情绪，问道：”鲍威尔什么时候才会降息？”
今年1月，特朗普总统提名前美联储官员凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔担任主席。沃什仍需参议院确认才能上任，而北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员、参议院银行委员会成员汤姆·蒂利斯表示，在司法部继续调查期间，他将反对任何美联储提名人选。
鲍威尔表示，如果他的继任者在5月任期结束前未获确认，他将担任临时主席直到沃什上任。
“这是法律要求的，”他说。
编辑：阿兰·谢特
美联社对本报道有贡献。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/how-rising-diesel-price-may-affect-inflation-amid-iran-war/
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, citing elevated economic uncertainty
2026-03-18T14:03:00-0400 / CBS News
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, marking the central bank’s second consecutive pause in 2026. In its policy statement, the Fed said U.S. economic uncertainty remains elevated, adding that the impact of the Iran war also remains unclear.
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate — what banks charge each other for short-term loans — in its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The decision to keep rates steady was widely expected by investors.
Rate cuts still on the table?
Fed officials indicated they still expect to cut their key rate once in 2026, the same projection as in December. By keeping their forecast for a rate cut this year and next, policymakers appear to expect that the spike in energy prices from the Iran war will have a transitory effect on inflation and the economy.
The central bank is facing a murkier economic outlook for the U.S., with the Iran war causing energy prices to spike and threatening to drive up inflation. Before the start of the war on February 28, economists had penciled in the next rate cut for the Fed’s June meeting, but the probability of that happening is now seen as slim, according to CME FedWatch, which monitors trader sentiment.
“The Fed is choosing to look through the fog of conflict, for now. A dual mandate Federal Reserve is not going to rock the interest rate boat during a supply shock,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, in an email after the Fed’s decision.
Maintaining the projection of one additional cut in 2026 is a “positive note,” said Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager, equities at Northwestern Mutual, in an email. He added, “The Fed seems willing to tolerate some ‘transitory’ energy inflation and resume cuts later in the year.”
Inflation expected to rise
The Fed, which also released fresh economic forecasts on Wednesday, said it now expects slightly hotter inflation this year than when it last made its projections in December. Officials now expect inflation to reach an annual rate of 2.7% by the end of 2026, up from its prior estimate of 2.4%.
Fed officials expect core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, to also finish the year at 2.7%, up from a previous forecast of 2.5%.
In a Wednesday afternoon press conference to discuss the rate decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the economic hit from the Iran war remains unclear, including the impact on consumers, who are now facing sharply higher gas prices and who could eventually cut back spending on other areas.
“The thing I want to emphasize is nobody knows,” Powell said. “If we have a long period of much higher gas prices, that will weigh on consumption, but we don’t know if that will happen.”
Signals suggest that inflation remained sticky even before the Iran war drove up energy prices this month. On Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that its producer price index, which measures inflation before it hits consumers, rose 3.4% in February on an annual basis. That increase — the largest in a year — was hotter than expected by economists.
“This isn’t the kind of PPI report the Fed wants to see,” Nationwide Financial Markets economist Oren Klachkin said in an email. “This report suggests inflation was going to accelerate even before the Iranian conflict hit.”
At the same time, the labor market is also facing headwinds. The U.S. shed 92,000 jobs in February, a sharp and unexpected setback after economists had forecast a gain of 60,000 jobs.
Powell’s outlook
At his press conference, Powell noted that the economy has sailed through recent headwinds with resilience, and added that he believes the economy is “doing pretty well,” despite the uncertainty around inflation, the Iran war and the job market.
Powell added that he intends to remain on the Fed’s board of governors until a Department of Justice investigation is resolved. Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May, although he can continue as an FOMC member through January 2028.
“I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and fully over,” he said.
Last week, a judge quashed a pair of grand jury subpoenas sent to the Fed as part of a criminal probe into building renovations by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s office, saying they were a pretext to pressure Powell into supporting lower interest rates or resigning. Pirro said she would appeal the decision.
President Trump has repeatedly called on Powell to cut rates, a sentiment he again voiced on Wednesday in a social media post asking, “When is “Too Late” Powell lowering INTEREST RATES?”
In January, Mr. Trump nominated former Fed official Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as chair. Warsh still requires Senate confirmation to step into the role, and Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, has said he will oppose any Fed nominees while the DOJ continues its investigation.
If his successor isn’t confirmed before the end of his term in May, Powell said he will serve as pro tem chair until Warsh can step into the role.
“That is what the law calls for,” he said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/how-rising-diesel-price-may-affect-inflation-amid-iran-war/
（注：此处为图片占位符，原文图片链接未提供，保留格式）