2026年4月7日 / 美国东部时间下午12:33 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：玛丽·坎宁安
据摩根大通能源分析师称，自2月伊朗战争爆发以来，美国汽油价格已上涨每加仑1.16美元，若霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭至4月中旬，美国汽油价格最早将于本月晚些时候突破每加仑5美元。
他们指出，加油站油价上涨还可能“大幅吞噬或完全抵消”许多美国人今年本应获得的大额退税——这些退税源于2025年通过的共和党支持的税改与支出法案。
摩根大通在给客户的报告中称：“今年普通汽油均价每上涨10美分，美国年度汽油支出就会增加逾120亿美元。我们的美国经济团队估算，如果汽油价格的近期涨幅持续到今年年底，消费者购买力将损失约1000亿美元。”
由于中东冲突阻断了途经战略要地霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输，美国汽油价格已大幅上涨。根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，截至本周二，美国全国平均汽油价格为每加仑4.14美元，较战事爆发前的2.98美元有所上涨。
燃油价格追踪平台GasBuddy的石油专家帕特里克·德哈恩同样认为，如果中东局势近期没有改善，美国汽油价格可能在4月底前突破每加仑5美元。
他在发给哥伦比亚广播公司新闻的电子邮件中表示：“汽油和柴油价格都有可能创下新高，如果总统兑现他的威胁，在今日晚些时候袭击伊朗、升级局势，这种可能性还会更大。”
美国全国汽油价格上一次达到每加仑5美元是在2022年，当年6月经通胀调整后达到每加仑5.02美元的历史峰值，当时正值四十年来最严重的通胀时期。
据彭博社报道，海峡航运已略有回升，周末共有21艘船舶通过该航道。但航运量仍远低于战前水平。联合国一个专家小组周一发布的报告显示，经该海峡的船舶日均通行量已从2月的约130艘降至3月的6艘。
本周二，特朗普总统加大了对伊朗的威胁力度，他在Truth Social平台上发文称，如果伊朗不在美国东部时间周二晚上8点前重新开放海峡，“整个文明都将在今晚覆灭”。
特朗普周一在接受哥伦比亚广播公司新闻白宫记者江周佳采访时表示：“我们必须达成一份我能接受的协议，协议的一部分内容就是，我们要确保石油和其他一切物资的通行自由。”
特朗普曾多次呼吁其他国家重新开放这条航道，他指出美国从中东进口的石油相对较少。据美联社报道，他在上周的一次演讲中称，那些依赖经霍尔木兹海峡运输原油的国家应该“牵头保护他们迫切依赖的石油资源”。
Gas prices could soon breach $5 a gallon if Strait of Hormuz remains shut, J.P. Morgan analysts say
April 7, 2026 / 12:33 PM EDT / CBS News
By Mary Cunningham
Gasoline prices in the U.S., which have risen $1.16 a gallon since the start of the Iran war in February, could top $5 a gallon as soon as later this month if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through mid-April, according to J.P. Morgan energy analysts.
Higher prices at the pump could also consume “much or all” of the larger tax refunds many Americans were expected to receive this year because of the Republican-backed tax and spending bill passed in 2025, they note.
“Every 10¢ rise in the average price of regular gasoline this year would add just over another $12 [billiion] to the annual outlays for gasoline,” J.P. Morgan said in a note to clients. “Our U.S. economics team estimates that the recent increase in the gasoline price, if it persists for the rest of this year, should amount to around a $100 [billion] hit to consumers’ purchasing power.”
Gas prices have surged in the U.S. as the conflict in the Middle East blocks shipments of oil passing through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. As of Tuesday, the average national gas price was $4.14 a gallon, up from $2.98 just before the outbreak of hostilities, according to data from AAA.
Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy, agrees that gas prices could surpass $5 a gallon by late April if the situation in the Middle East doesn’t improve soon.
“New records for both gasoline and diesel are possible, and more likely if the president follows through on his threats to attack Iran/escalate the situation later today,” he said in an email to CBS News.
The average national gas price last reached $5 a gallon in 2022, hitting an all-time high of $5.02 after adjusting for inflation in June of that year amid the fiercest inflation in four decades.
Traffic in the strait has edged up, with 21 ships transiting the waterway over the weekend, according to Bloomberg. However, traffic remains far below where it stood before the war. Ship transits through the channel dropped from roughly 130 per day in February to six in March, a United Nations panel said in a report on Monday.
On Tuesday, President Trump ramped up his threats against Iran, writing on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if the country doesn’t reopen the strait by 8 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday.
Mr. Trump told CBS News White House correspondent Weijia Jiang on Monday that “we have to have a deal that’s acceptable to me, and part of that deal is going to be, we want free traffic of oil and everything else.”
Mr. Trump has repeatedly called on other countries to reopen the waterway, noting that the U.S. imports relatively little oil from the Middle East. In a speech last week, he said that countries that rely on crude shipments passing through the strait should “take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on,” according to the Assoicated Press.
