2026年6月17日 10:01:40 GMT / 路透社
- 摘要
- 最新预测预计将显示，今年政策利率将维持在3.50%-3.75%区间
- 分析师预计美联储将从政策声明中删除“进一步调整”的表述
- 政策决议和预测将于美国东部时间下午2点（格林尼治标准时间18:00）公布
- 沃什将在会议结束后不久举行新闻发布会
华盛顿，6月17日（路透社）——在凯文·沃什主持的首次美联储会议结束之际，美联储预计将于周三维持利率不变。新的政策声明和经济预测可能会反映出，尽管受和平协议希望推动油价下跌，但市场对伊朗战争引发的通胀的担忧日益加剧。
近期数据显示美国就业强劲，失业率维持在4.3%的较低水平，且通胀远高于美联储2%的目标，许多分析师预计美联储将从政策声明中删除有关“进一步调整”基准利率的表述。此前这一表述曾被用于暗示未来可能下调借贷成本。
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沃什曾表示，他总体上不喜欢有关货币政策的前瞻性指引，而近期的数据促使许多美联储官员表示，现在是时候消除“宽松倾向”，转而使用更中性的措辞，以允许可能需要加息的情况存在。
投资者目前预计，美联储的政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会将在12月加息25个基点。
“我们预计会出现更中性的政策倾向，”摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利在美联储会议前写道。“在沃什的领导下，委员会有可能大刀阔斧地”修改声明，彻底取消利率前瞻指引，无论是在本次会议还是未来的会议上。
费罗利表示，无论哪种情况，对声明的修改都可能说服在4月28日至29日会议上投票支持更鹰派措辞的三名政策制定者，这将让沃什在其首次履职中获得全票支持。沃什曾将异议视为机构健康的标志，并希望美联储会议能像“家庭辩论”一样。
美联储的利率决议、政策声明和更新后的政策制定者预测将于美国东部时间下午2点（格林尼治标准时间18:00）公布。沃什于上月接替前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，他将在半小时后举行新闻发布会，目前仍遵循其前任制定的日程安排。
鲍威尔将继续以美联储理事的身份成为政策委员会的投票成员。
在参议院确认听证会上，沃什表示，他认为美联储官员发言过多，却未能为政策讨论增添太多实质内容，这可能预示着他将减少公开露面的频次和曝光度。
现年56岁的沃什于上月获得确认，出任美联储主席，任期四年，同时成为美联储理事会成员，任期14年。他在上任之际，鲍威尔与白宫之间关系紧张，原因是这位前美联储主席拒绝执行唐纳德·特朗普总统要求的大幅降息。
这种敌意的表现包括特朗普试图通过解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克来加强对央行的控制，这是美国总统首次采取此类行动，以及启动后来被撤销的对鲍威尔的刑事调查。
美国最高法院将于本月就库克能否继续留任做出裁决。尽管预计裁决结果将对她有利，但这仍可能对未来的美联储治理产生重要影响。
出席了库克最高法院听证会的鲍威尔，因抵制特朗普对央行的施压而广受赞誉。沃什尚未直接就库克事件或针对其前任的施压运动发表言论。
经济不确定性给美联储前景蒙上阴影
尽管沃什与特朗普开启了新的合作关系，但降息的路径可能正在收窄。
本周公布的最新季度预测预计将显示，美联储官员的中位预测不再认为今年政策利率会下调，而是维持在当前3.50%-3.75%的区间，原因是通胀预期上升，年末失业率可能更低。一些官员可能会将加息纳入预测。
沃什的首次新闻发布会很可能会被有关其计划的广泛问题主导。在特朗普提名他担任美联储最高职位之前，沃什就经常批评鲍威尔领导的央行在政策制定和沟通方面的整体做法，呼吁降低央行持有的金融资产规模，并承诺进行大规模改革。
但也存在快速变化的短期问题，尤其是美国牵头的对伊朗战争似乎即将结束，霍尔木兹海峡重新开放。尽管这一局势发展推动全球油价暴跌至2月底冲突爆发前的水平，但美联储官员现在必须评估，近期能源价格上涨可能带来多大的通胀压力，以及预计将通过这条战略水道恢复全球大宗商品运输的漫长重启过程可能带来的影响。
高盛首席美国经济学家戴维·梅里克尔在本周会议的分析报告中写道，当前全球油价约为每桶80美元，且人们对中东停火可能持续抱有信心，“到目前为止，通胀影响看起来更像是大型石油冲击通常带来的成本转嫁”，无需沃什加息。
但考虑到未来几个月整体通胀预计将升至4%以上，并在2026年前维持在3%以上，降息可能至少要推迟到明年年中，即便真的会降息。
“如果经济持续表现良好，长期维持利率不变将增加联邦公开市场委员会认定（联邦）基金利率已处于合适水平的可能性，”梅里克尔说道。“我们认为维持利率不变是一种合理的备选方案。”
本报记者霍华德·施奈德报道；编辑丹·伯恩斯和保罗·西马奥
Warsh-led Fed expected to hold interest rates steady
2026-06-17 10:01:40 GMT / reuters.com
- New projections expected to show policy rate staying in 3.50%-3.75% range this year
- Analysts expect Fed to drop language on ‘additional adjustments’ from policy statement
- Policy decision and projections due at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT)
- Warsh to hold press conference shortly after end of meeting
WASHINGTON, June 17 (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday at the end of the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, with a new policy statement and economic projections likely to reflect growing concern about the inflation stoked by the Iran war even as oil prices slide on peace deal hopes.
With recent data showing strong U.S. hiring, a relatively low 4.3% unemployment rate, and inflation well above the U.S. central bank’s 2% target, many analysts anticipate the Fed will remove language from its policy statement about “additional adjustments” to its benchmark interest rate, a reference that had been used to indicate likely future decreases in borrowing costs.
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Warsh has said he dislikes forward guidance about monetary policy in general, and recent data prompted many Fed officials to say it is time to remove the “easing bias” anyway in favor of more neutral language that allows for the possibility that rate hikes might be needed.
Investors currently anticipate the central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee to deliver a quarter-percentage-point rate increase in December.
“We expect a more neutral bias,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JP Morgan, wrote ahead of the Fed’s meeting. “It’s possible the committee, under Warsh, takes a cleaver” to the statement and wipes out rate guidance altogether, whether at this meeting or in the future.
In either case, Feroli said, changes to the statement may win over the three policymakers who dissented in favor of more hawkish language at the April 28-29 meeting, providing Warsh, who has regarded dissent as a sign of institutional health and wants Fed meetings to resemble a “family fight,” a unanimous vote in his first outing.
The Fed’s rate decision, policy statement and updated policymaker projections will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). Warsh, who replaced former Fed chief Jerome Powell last month, will hold a press conference half an hour later, keeping to the schedule adopted by his predecessor for now.
Powell will continue to be a voting member of the policy committee in his ongoing role as a Fed governor.
In his U.S. Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh said he feels Fed officials talk too much and add too little to the policy discussion, a possible precursor to scaling back his own pace of public appearances and access.
Warsh, 56, who was confirmed last month to a four-year term as Fed chief and a 14-year term on the Board of Governors, took over the top job amid strained relations between Powell and the White House over the former Fed chief’s refusal to deliver the big rate cuts demanded by President Donald Trump.
The animosity was marked by Trump’s efforts to get more control over the central bank through an attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, the first such move by a president, and the launching of a since-dropped criminal investigation of Powell.
The U.S. Supreme Court is due to decide this month on whether Cook can keep her job. While the ruling is expected to go in her favor, it could still have important implications for Fed governance in the future.
Powell, who attended Cook’s Supreme Court hearing, has been lauded broadly for resisting Trump’s pressure on the central bank. Warsh has not spoken directly on the Cook case or the pressure campaign against his predecessor.
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS FED OUTLOOK
Though Warsh starts on a new footing with Trump, the path to rate cuts may be narrowing.
The updated quarterly projections being released this week are expected to show Fed officials at the median no longer see the policy rate falling this year, but instead remaining steady in the current 3.50%-3.75% range amid higher anticipated inflation and possibly a lower year-end unemployment rate. Some officials are likely to pencil in a rate increase.
Warsh’s debut press conference may well be dominated by broad questions about his plans, which in the run-up to his nomination by Trump for the top Fed job included frequent criticism of the Powell-led central bank’s overall approach to policymaking and communications, calls to lower its holdings of financial assets, and promises of extensive reform.
But there are fast-moving short-term issues as well, notably the apparent end of the U.S.-backed war with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While that development has sent world oil prices plunging towards levels seen prior to the start of the conflict in late February, Fed officials will now have to assess how much inflationary pressure may be left to come due to the recent jump in energy costs and what is anticipated to be a lengthy restart to global commodity shipments through the strategic waterway.
With the global oil price around $80 a barrel and some faith that a ceasefire in the Middle East might endure, “so far the impact on inflation looks more like the usual pass-through from large oil shocks,” and won’t require Warsh to raise rates, David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in an analysis of this week’s meeting.
But rate cuts are likely to be on hold until at least the middle of next year, if they happen at all, given that headline inflation is expected to rise above 4% in the coming months and remain higher than 3% through 2026.
“A long pause would increase the probability that the FOMC could instead decide that the (federal) funds rate is already in an appropriate place if the economy continues to perform well,” Mericle said. “We see a flat path as a plausible alternative.”
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao