2026-04-22 美国东部时间凌晨00:00 / CNN政治频道
斯蒂芬·科林森 分析
2026年4月16日，伊朗德黑兰北部瓦纳克广场，一名出租车司机在印有军事人员手握霍尔木兹海峡的广告牌前等待乘客。
瓦希德·萨莱米/美联社
唐纳德·特朗普总统再次对伊朗“认怂”，延长了双方的停火协议。
此前特朗普曾警告称，如果伊朗伊斯兰共和国不屈服，美国将“不再做老好人”，而仅在数天后就又在个人红线问题上妥协，他的批评者们正在嘲讽这又是一次“塔可星期二”（TACO，即“特朗普总是临阵退缩”的首字母缩写）。
但如果总统只是为了维护自己硬汉形象，执意升级一场看似不明智的战争，从而让更多伊朗人和美国人付出生命代价，那么这种嘲讽才更站得住脚。
未来的参议员约翰·克里1971年在参议院外交关系委员会就越南战争提出的一个令人不安的问题，放在当下同样贴切：“你怎么能要求一个人成为为错误而死的最后一个人？”
不过，特朗普的这次退让再次让人质疑他的战时领导能力——就在当天，伊朗拒绝出席在伊斯兰堡举行的旨在结束战争的谈判，导致副总统J·D·万斯空手而归。
特朗普在真相社交平台上写道，应巴基斯坦方面的要求，美国暂停了进攻行动，以便伊朗提出提案，直到谈判以任何一种方式得出结果。他还辩称，谈判进程十分复杂，因为伊朗领导层“严重分裂”。
CNN了解到，多名高级官员认为万斯本就没必要前往巴基斯坦参加谈判。他们认为，伊朗之所以没有回应美国的提案，是因为其领导层尚未就自身立场，或在铀库存问题上赋予谈判代表多大权限达成共识。消息人士称，其中一个复杂因素可能是新任最高领袖穆赫塔迈·哈梅内伊正在藏匿，无法传递明确指令。
这一说法有可能成立，但也可能是特朗普为自己的退让找的托词。对伊朗外交官谈判权限的质疑始终笼罩着与伊斯兰共和国的谈判。这也可能凸显出美国战略的混乱——伊朗领导层的分裂因以色列的暗杀突袭行动加剧，那些拥有政治影响力、能够达成协议的高级官员已被清除。
2026年4月20日，耶路撒冷，一名女子路过印有唐纳德·特朗普总统肖像、写着“拯救者”标语的横幅。
艾哈迈德·加拉布利/法新社/盖蒂图片社
特朗普暴露的一大惨败
总统的辩解无法掩盖本周二最重要的结论：他以压倒性军事力量威胁迫使伊朗在谈判中投降的战略，已经多次失败。因此，在伊朗国内看来，特朗普升级军事行动的威胁已经失去可信度。
在是否出席拟议中的伊斯兰堡谈判一事上，伊朗也耗赢了美国总统，让自己看起来更加强势。而总统对进一步开战的抵触情绪表明，伊朗可能已经部分恢复了袭击海湾国家的能力，进而重建了战略威慑力。
“不管总统、副总统还是国防部长说什么，都对伊朗的决策毫无影响，”以色列军事情报局伊朗分局前局长丹尼·西特里诺维奇在接受CNN国际频道采访时告诉吉姆·西图托。
“从伊朗的角度来看，他们占据了上风。如果美国想升级局势，那就升级。如果（美国）想要达成协议，就必须接受他们通过巴基斯坦方面传递的十点要求，”西特里诺维奇说道，他所指的是伊朗此前提出的、包含诸多被美国拒绝的诉求的提案。
那么，接下来会发生什么？
乐观人士可能会希望，此次无限期延长停火将为外交斡旋留出空间。如果特朗普真的打算让停火持续到谈判结束，那么这可能需要数周乃至数月时间，因为与伊朗的谈判向来耗时费力。
停火持续的时间越长，特朗普可能就越不愿付出打破停火的代价。这可能间接为总统带来他所需要的东西——结束那场打击了他的支持率、冲击了全球经济，并可能引发民主党中期选举浪潮的战争。
不过，特朗普向来反复无常。伊朗方面认为，至少有两次——去年袭击伊朗核设施之前和今年战争爆发之前——美国似乎通过军事行动打断了外交进程。
但停火不会永久解决特朗普最大的问题。
作为至关重要的石油运输通道，霍尔木兹海峡仍因伊朗的威胁而处于关闭状态。更重要的是，如今可能由军方强硬派主导的伊朗残余领导层，比战争前更加极端。伊朗仍拥有可用于重建核计划的高浓缩铀——即便这些材料被埋在其核设施下方。而且伊朗民众仍在遭受压迫。
2026年4月20日，阿曼穆桑达姆海岸外霍尔木兹海峡的船只。
路透社
来自巴基斯坦及其他国家的外交官们面临的挑战，将是找到一种能让特朗普宣称取得某种胜利的方式。
一个可能的契机或许是美国对伊朗港口和船只的封锁。
一些分析人士认为，这是一个糟糕的举措，势必会让伊朗更难保全颜面并出席谈判。另一些人则认为，此举创造了新的谈判筹码。
一条可能的前进道路是，美国尝试以解除封锁作为交换条件，换取伊朗同意开放海峡。随后，更正式的外交进程将能够解决伊朗核计划、导弹威胁以及伊朗要求解除制裁等棘手问题。
外交关系协会前主席理查德·哈斯称赞本届政府选择了暂缓行动。“给他们一些时间，把球踢给他们，让他们提出方案，而非强行抛出美国的立场，我认为这要好得多，”哈斯在接受CNN的凯西·亨特采访时表示。“我们不会被迫拿出一些看起来不切实际，或者从他们的角度来看有损其尊严和颜面的方案。”
无法保证伊朗会做出积极回应，即便伊朗有巨大动力缓解严重的经济压力——这些压力正阻碍着其军事重建。而且，美国封锁要产生显著效果所需的时间，可能比特朗普的政治耐心所能承受的跨度更长，也可能超过全球经济承受海峡关闭的能力。德黑兰的残暴领导人可能准备好让本国人民承受几乎无尽的痛苦。
伊朗也可能永远不会同意永久放弃在霍尔木兹海峡的影响力。因为这场战争已经证明，未来任何针对伊斯兰共和国的袭击，都将导致该水道关闭，并引发全球经济灾难。
政府方面的说法可能有一定道理：美国和以色列的空袭行动取得了战术成功，削弱了伊朗的地区和核威胁，甚至可能削弱了其残暴的国内镇压机器。
但特朗普最初发动战争的决定——以及数周来他自相矛盾的立场、混乱的战略和反复无常的言论累积产生的影响——可能会将美国引向战略失败的道路。
除非总统——以及关键国际玩家做出更广泛的努力——能够利用他暂缓进一步进攻的决定，找到一条脱身之路。
Why Trump’s latest blink on Iran could be more than a TACO Tuesday
2026-04-22 12:00 AM ET / CNN Politics
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
A taxi driver waits for passengers in front of a billboard depicting a military personnel’s hand holding the Strait of Hormuz in his fist, in Vanak Square in northern Tehran, Iran, on April 16, 2026.
Vahid Salemi/AP
President Donald Trump blinked again by extending the ceasefire with Iran.
His critics are mocking another TACO (“Trump always chickens out”) Tuesday after the president caved on one more personal red line days after warning there’d be “no more Mr. Nice Guy” if the Islamic Republic didn’t capitulate.
But the derision would be more justified if a president risked more Iranian and US lives by doubling down on what looks like an unwise war purely to preserve his tough-guy persona.
A haunting question about the Vietnam War that future Sen. John Kerry posed to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 1971 seems apt here: “How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?”
Still, Trump’s climbdown cast fresh doubts on his wartime leadership skills on a day when Iran refused to show up to talks in Islamabad aimed at ending the war — leaving Vice President JD Vance cooling his heels at home.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that he’d put US attacks on hold at the request of Pakistan to allow Iran to send a proposal and until talks conclude one way or the other. He also argued that the process was complicated because Iran’s leadership was “seriously fractured.”
CNN reported that top officials believe there was little point in Vance traveling to Pakistan for the talks. They believe Iran didn’t reply to US proposals because its leaders don’t yet have consensus on their position or on how far to empower negotiations on the country’s uranium stockpile. One complicating factor may be that new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in hiding and may be unable to transmit clear directions, the sources said.
This is possible, but it may also be a self-serving way to cover Trump’s climbdown. Doubts about Iranian diplomats’ authority to negotiate always cloud talks with the Islamic Republic. And it may also highlight the incoherence of US strategy, since the Iranian leadership’s fractures were exacerbated by Israeli assassination raids that wiped out top officials with the political clout to do deals.
A woman walks past a banner depicting President Donald Trump with the slogan “The Deliverer” in Jerusalem on April 20, 2026.
Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images
One big Trump failure revealed
The president’s spin cannot obscure the most important takeaway from Tuesday: His strategy of using threats of overwhelming US military force to coerce Iran into surrendering at talks has now failed multiple times. Inside Iran, therefore, it must appear that Trump’s threats of military escalation lack credibility.
Iran also outwaited the US president on whether it would show up to proposed talks in Islamabad, making itself look stronger. And the president’s antipathy to more war suggests that Iran may have partially repaired its capacity to hit Gulf states and therefore its strategic deterrence.
“It doesn’t matter what the president will say or the vice president or the secretary of war will say. It has zero influence on the Iranian calculus,” Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence, told Jim Sciutto on CNN International.
“From the Iranians’ standpoint, they have the upper hand. And if the US wants to escalate, it will escalate. And if (the US wants) an agreement, they have to accept the 10 points that they sent them through the Pakistanis,” Citrinowicz said, referring to a previous Iranian proposal that included many demands rejected by the US.
So, what happens next?
An optimist might hope the indefinite extension of the ceasefire will open up space for diplomacy to work. If Trump really means that it will last until discussions conclude, he could be talking weeks or months, since talks with Iran are always laborious.
The longer the ceasefire holds, the less Trump may want to pay the price to break it. Indirectly, this could give the president what he needs — the suspension of a war that hammered his approval ratings and the global economy and threatens to fuel a Democratic midterm election wave.
Still, Trump is notoriously changeable. Iran believes that on at least two occasions — before the strikes against its nuclear plants last year and before this year’s war — the US has appeared to cut short a diplomatic process with attacks.
But a ceasefire will not permanently solve Trump’s biggest problems.
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit route, remains closed by Iranian threats. If anything, Iran’s remnant leadership, now likely dominated by military hardliners, is even more extreme than before the war. Iran still has highly enriched uranium that would help it reconstitute a nuclear program — even if the material is buried under its nuclear plants. And its people are still repressed.
Ships and boats in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Musandam, Oman, April 20, 2026.
Reuters
The challenge for diplomats, from Pakistan and elsewhere, will be to find a way for Trump to claim some kind of win.
One possible catalyst might be the US blockade of Iranian ports and ships.
Some analysts believe this was a bad idea, one bound to make it more difficult for Iran to save face and show up at the talks. Others credit it with creating new leverage.
One way forward may be for the US to try to barter away the blockade in exchange for Iran agreeing to open the strait. Then, a more formal diplomatic process could tackle thorny issues like Iran’s nuclear program, its missile threat and its demands for sanctions relief.
Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, praised the administration for taking a beat. “Giving them some time and putting the ball in their court, letting them propose something rather than jamming them with an American position, I think this is much better,” Haass told CNN’s Kasie Hunt. “We’re not put in the position of putting on the table something that looks unrealistic or, from their point of view, insulting to their dignity or pride.”
There’s no guarantee Iran will respond favorably, even if it has a huge incentive to alleviate the severe economic stress that is hampering military reconstruction. And the time it will take for the US blockade to bite deep could be longer than the span of Trump’s political patience or the global economy’s capacity to bear the strait’s closure. Tehran’s brutal leaders may be ready to expose their people to almost endless amounts of pain.
Iran may also never agree to cede its leverage permanently on the Strait of Hormuz. That’s because this war has established that the price of any future attack on the Islamic Republic will result in the waterway’s closure and global economic carnage.
There may be some truth to administration claims that US and Israeli bombing was an operational triumph that weakened Iran’s regional and nuclear threat and perhaps even its murderous domestic repression machine.
But Trump’s initial decision to go to war — and the cumulative effect of weeks of his contradictory positions, confused strategy and erratic statements — risks putting the US on a path to strategic defeat.
That is, unless the president — and a broadened effort by key international players — can use his decision to hold off on more attacks to craft a way out.
