周二发布的人口普查分析显示，民主党坚固堡垒可能在2030年后失去国会席位，这表明蓝州似乎正濒临增长衰退的边缘。
根据卡内基梅隆大学乔纳森·塞尔瓦斯（Jonathan Cervas）基于2025年数据的预测，并由重新划分选区网络（Redistricting Network）分享的估计，纽约和加利福尼亚预计将总共失去6个席位，而得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州可能获得8个席位。
这份新数据最显著地凸显了这个帝国州（指纽约州）即将面临的衰落——自20世纪40年代以来，该州席位就一直在稳步流失。
“这对纽约或加利福尼亚来说都不是好消息，”纽约法学院纽约州选举、人口普查和选区重划研究所主任杰夫·威斯（Jeff Wice）在接受《纽约邮报》采访时表示。
2026年中期选举临近，两党争夺权力，全国选区重划斗争一触即发
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2023年10月29日，人们在纽约市中央公园排队。（Getty Images）
分析显示，其他蓝州代表团，包括伊利诺伊州、罗德岛州和俄勒冈州，预计也将失去1至2个席位，而犹他州和爱达荷州等红州预计将小幅增加席位。
如果2030年的席位分配预测成真，选举人团票数的重新分配可能会使民主党人的政治之路更加艰难。
司法部敦促最高法院阻止加州选区划分方案，称纽森支持的计划是种族杰利蝾螈式操纵
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众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（R-路易斯安那州）于2023年10月25日在众议院发表讲话。（Tom Williams）
根据分析，纽约州的国会代表团预计将从45个席位持续减少到24个席位。拥有最大代表团的加利福尼亚州可能降至48个席位。
在人口普查后的选区重划中，得克萨斯州预计将从38个众议院席位猛增至42个，佛罗里达州将从28个增至32个。自2020年以来，得克萨斯州新增约250万居民，佛罗里达州新增200万居民，这两个州的人口数量增长速度在全国名列前茅。
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2023年4月11日，得克萨斯州奥斯汀市中心天际线。（Brandon Bell/Getty Images）
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威斯补充说，如果唐纳德·特朗普总统和共和党人能够在人口普查中加入公民身份问题，蓝州可能面临进一步的席位流失。尽管美国宪法要求无论身份如何都要统计所有居民，但关于合法身份的问题可能会阻碍非法移民回应人口普查，从而影响人口计数。
邦尼·楚（Bonny Chu）是福克斯新闻数字版的数字制作助理。
Blue states appear to be on the brink of a growth decline after a census analysis released Tuesday found that Democratic strongholds are likely to lose congressional seats to their Republican counterparts after 2030.
New York and California specifically are projected to lose a combined six seats, while Texas and Florida may gain eight, according to the 2025-based estimates forecast by Jonathan Cervas at Carnegie Mellon University and shared by Redistricting Network.
The new data most notably underscores a looming downfall for the Empire State, which has been steadily losing seats since the 1940s.
“This is not good news for New York or California,” said Jeff Wice, director of the New York Elections, Census, and Redistricting Institute at New York Law School, according to the New York Post.
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People stand in Central Park Oct. 29, 2023, in New York City.(Getty Images)
Other blue state delegations, including Illinois, Rhode Island and Oregon, are also projected to lose one to two seats, while red states such as Utah and Idaho are expected to make small gains, the analysis shows.
If the 2030 apportionment predictions come true, the redistribution of Electoral College votes may make Democrats’ path more challenging.
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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., addresses the House Oct. 25, 2023.(Tom Williams)
According to the analysis, New York’s congressional delegation is projected to drop to 24 seats, continuing its steady decline from 45 seats in the 1940s. California, which has the largest delegation of any state, could fall to 48 seats.
Texas is expected to surge from 38 to 42 House seats, Florida from 28 to 32, in a post-census redistribution. Since 2020, Texas gained roughly 2.5 million residents and Florida gained 2 million, ranking the two states among the fastest-growing in the country by numeric population.
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The downtown skyline of Austin, Texas, April 11, 2023.(Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
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Wice added that blue states could face further seat losses if President Donald Trump and the GOP are able to require citizenship questions in the census. While the U.S. Constitution requires all residents to be counted regardless of status, questions about legal status could discourage illegal immigrants from responding and affecting the population count.
Bonny Chu is a Digital Production Assistant at Fox News Digital.
