2026年3月18日 / 美国东部时间下午1:32 / CBS新闻
分析师告诉CBS新闻，随着德黑兰的报复性打击瘫痪了通过霍尔木兹海峡的原油运输并推高全球能源价格，俄罗斯正从美以与伊朗的战争中获得经济利益。
美国财政部上周发布了一项30天的豁免，允许俄罗斯继续销售能源，这是针对莫斯科持续全面入侵乌克兰而实施的制裁。该豁免允许俄罗斯出售已装载到油轮上的石油。
财政部长斯科特·贝森特称该豁免是一项”针对性狭窄、短期的措施”，目的是”促进全球能源市场的稳定”，并坚称这不会”为俄罗斯政府提供重大的财政利益”。
一些分析师和俄罗斯对此表示异议。
能源与清洁空气研究中心（CERA）的欧洲-俄罗斯能源与制裁分析师卢克·威肯登周二告诉CBS新闻，石油收入的增加”正迅速成为俄罗斯的生命线”。
2026年3月11日，在印度古吉拉特邦阿拉伯海的纳拉拉海洋国家公园，游客观赏海洋生物，背景中是载有俄罗斯石油的MT Desert Kite油轮。Amit Dave/路透社
威肯登表示：”在豁免缓解美国制裁之前，俄罗斯原油的交易价格比国际基准布伦特原油低约10至20%。现在，这个折扣已经完全消失，价格几乎与布伦特原油持平。”
威肯登告诉CBS新闻，莫斯科收入的增加至少部分是由于豁免促使俄罗斯石油的买家增加了进口。
“这些国家以前可能对进口这种原油略有顾虑，现在实际上可能会增加进口量。例如，中国的进口量比上月增长了22%，巴西增长了32%，新加坡几乎增长了两倍。”
CERA的进一步分析显示，在伊朗战争的前两周，俄罗斯的平均原油出口收入估计为每天2.3亿美元，比冲突前2月份的日平均水平高出26%。
克里姆林宫在战争开始后毫不掩饰其利润的增长。
克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫周日表示：”我们谈论的是我们的石油公司的额外收入，这些公司销售石油和石油产品，其经营受到当前价格环境的影响。公司收入意味着预算收入增加。”
本月早些时候，贝森特还宣布了一项30天的豁免，允许印度炼油厂购买俄罗斯石油。他表示，此举是为了”确保石油在中东战争期间继续流入全球市场”。
这代表了特朗普政府政策的转变。去年，由于印度大量购买俄罗斯石油，美国对印度进口商品征收了25%的关税。根据CERA的分析，印度是俄罗斯化石燃料的第二大买家。
乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基周日表示，克里姆林宫增加的收入可能会让普京”更有信心继续在乌克兰进行战争”。
“我们的情报报告显示，由于美国和欧盟实施的所有制裁，以及我们对俄罗斯能源基础设施的深度打击，俄罗斯仅在2026年就面临超过1000亿美元的赤字，”泽连斯基说。”现在，我们看到他们在中东战争的两周内已经赚了约100亿美元。”
威肯登告诉CBS新闻，如果伊朗战争持续下去，全球能源价格在两到三个月内保持高位，这实际上将”抵消俄罗斯在过去一年中遭受的损失”。
周三，当参议员马克·凯利询问俄罗斯是否因油价上涨和战争期间美国暂停制裁而获得数十亿美元时，国家情报局局长图尔西·加巴德仅表示：”这是有报道的内容”，然后将问题转交给了财政和能源部长。
在同一参议院情报委员会听证会上，中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫表示，他不是经济学家，因此不会”试图进行这些计算。但正如我之前所说，有时政策制定者认为某些决定会造福美国人民，但实际上可能同时造福对手。”
然而，全球政治风险研究公司欧亚集团创始人伊恩·布雷默周二告诉CBS新闻，俄罗斯的任何财政收益不太可能成为莫斯科继续乌克兰战争的”游戏规则改变者”。
“很多俄罗斯人正在死亡，四年来的战争中已有超过100万伤亡，但这并没有减缓普京的步伐。他愿意承担这些后果，并愿意让自己的人民面临包括经济困难在内的各种苦难，这一点非常明显。”布雷默说。
布雷默确实表示，俄罗斯国库的增加将使克里姆林宫在进行战争时有更大的财政”灵活性”，这可能成为美国及其欧洲盟友的一个痛点。
“考虑到俄罗斯是美国及其全球盟友的原则性敌人，美国在伊朗发动的’自愿战争’最终直接帮助了俄罗斯，无论是间接还是直接，这是特朗普政府的选择造成的后果。我认为这正是让人们感到不满的地方。”他说。
How Russia is benefitting from “America’s war of choice in Iran”
March 18, 2026 / 1:32 PM EDT / CBS News
Russia is benefitting financially from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, analysts tell CBS News, as Tehran’s retaliatory strikes paralyze crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and send global energy prices skyward.
The U.S. Treasury issued a 30 day waiver last week on sanctions imposed on Russian energy sales over Moscow’s ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The waiver allows Russia to sell oil that was already loaded onto tankers.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the waiver a “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” to “promote stability in global energy markets,” and he insisted it would not “provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government.”
Some analysts, and Russia, disagree.
Already the increase in oil revenue is “quickly becoming a lifeline for Russia,” Luke Wickenden, a Europe-Russia Energy and Sanctions Analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CERA), told CBS News on Tuesday.
Tourists watch marine life, with the MT Desert Kite oil tanker carrying Russian oil in the background, at Narara Marine National Park in the Arabian Sea, Gujarat, India, March 11, 2026. Amit Dave/REUTERS
“Russian crude oil was trading at around a 10 to 20% discount” before the waiver eased the U.S. sanctions, Wickenden said. “Now, that discount has completely vanished and it’s pretty much at the exact same level as Brent crude,” which is widely seen as the international benchmark for oil prices
Wickenden told CBS News the boost in revenue for Moscow is, at least in part, down to the waiver incentivizing buyers of Russian oil to increase their imports.
“These countries that previously may have been slightly wary of importing this crude oil may actually increase their imports. So, for example, China’s imports have risen 22% compared to last month. Brazil’s has increased by 32% and Singapore’s has nearly tripled,” he said.
Further analysis from CERA shows Russia’s average crude oil export earnings during the first two weeks of the Iran war were worth an estimated $230 million per day — 26% more than February’s daily average, before the conflict.
The Kremlin hasn’t been shy about its boosted profits since the war started.
“We’re talking about additional revenue for our oil companies, which sell oil and petroleum products and are guided by the current price environment,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Sunday. “Company revenues mean increased budget revenues.”
Earlier this month, Bessent also announced a 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to buy Russian oil — a step he said was to “enable oil to keep flowing into the global market” amid the war in the Middle East.
That represented a shift in policy for the Trump administration who last year had slapped a 25% tariff on imports from India as a result of its large purchases of Russian oil. India is the second largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels, according to analysis from CERA.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday that the Kremlin’s boosted income could give Vladimir Putin “more confidence that he can continue the war” in Ukraine.
“Our intelligence reports that due to all the sanctions imposed by the United States and the EU, and because of our deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, Russia faced a deficit of more than $100 billion in 2026 alone,” Zelenskyy said. “Now, we see they have made around $10 billion over two weeks of the war in the Middle East.”
Wickenden told CBS News that if the Iran war continues, and keeps global energy prices elevated for two or three months, it would “actually offset the losses that it’s [Russia] made in just the last year.”
Asked Wednesday by Sen. Mark Kelly if Russia had gained billions of dollars from rising oil prices and a pause on U.S. sanctions amid the war, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said only, “that is what has been reported,” and then referred the question to the secretaries of the treasury and energy.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe, at the same Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, said he was not an economist and thus he would not “try and do those calculations. But as I talked about earlier, sometimes there are decisions made that will benefit adversaries at the same time policymakers think that it will benefit the American people.”
Ian Bremmer, the founder of global political risk research firm Eurasia group, told CBS News on Tuesday, however, that any financial benefits for Russia are unlikely to be a “gamechanger” for Moscow as it continues its war on Ukraine.
“A lot of Russians were dying, over 1 million casualties they’ve had in four years of the war, but it wasn’t slowing Putin down. So, his willingness to take those consequences, and the willingness to expose his own population to hardship, including economic hardship, has been very hot,” Bremmer said.
Bremmer did say, though, that the boost to Russia’s state coffers will give the Kremlin greater financial “flexibility” as it wages its war, and that could become a sore point for the U.S. and its European allies.
“Given the fact that the Russians are a principled enemy of the United States and its allies around the world, the fact that America’s war of choice in Iran ends up directly helping the Russians, both indirectly and directly, as a consequence of choices of the Trump administration, that is what I think has people bent out of shape,” he said.
