2026-04-30T04:00:50.966Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
斯蒂芬·科林森 分析报道
发布于 2026年4月30日 美国东部时间00:00
中东地区 唐纳德·特朗普
2026年4月22日，阿利·伯克级导弹驱逐舰“平克尼号”在执行封锁行动期间为一艘船只护航。
美国海军
唐纳德·特朗普总统发起的海上封锁行动，是对迄今尚未得到验证的对伊战争理论的最新尝试——该理论认为，美国的压倒性军事优势必将击垮这个伊斯兰共和国。
这一战略基于一个简单前提：切断伊朗的石油出口以及维系其民众正常生活的进口物资，将引发社会崩溃。这将给伊朗政权带来难以承受的压力，迫使它屈服于美国的要求，永久放弃其核计划。
在华盛顿，这一逻辑看似无懈可击。任何国家，无论是激进神权政权还是西方民主国家，若无法保障民众获得基本的食物、能源和工作机会，都将分崩离析。当美国官员看到德黑兰出现通胀高企、大量失业和物资短缺的情况时，他们断定为期两周的封锁已初见成效。
“这场封锁堪称神来之笔，明白吗？”特朗普周三说道，“他们的经济正陷入真正的困境，已经是一潭死水。”据CNN报道，总统对这一计划颇为满意，甚至已让助手们做好长期应对的准备。
此举的原因之一在于，它既能向伊朗施压，又不会让美军因地面行动或重启轰炸而出现伤亡——此前的轰炸虽持续猛烈却未能取得决定性战果。另一个原因是，伊朗曾封锁霍尔木兹海峡引发全球危机，削弱了美国在经济战中的影响力，而此次封锁试图重塑美国的这一优势。
2026年4月16日，民众坐在长椅上俯瞰伊朗德黑兰市容。
塔希尔·阿尔-苏达尼/路透社
美国的经济实力远超伊朗，这场较量本应毫无悬念。但话又说回来，此前美以联合发动的恐怖空袭曾重创伊朗军方，却未能在战争中取得战略胜利。
特朗普的乐观态度将面临两个关键问题，这两个问题将决定他的最新战略在这场常常看似缺乏合理动机或明确收尾方案的战争中的成败。
第一个问题是，特朗普、他的共和党同僚以及美国民众能否承受战争带来的日益高昂的成本，包括每加仑汽油售价突破4美元，以及通胀可能进一步走高。中期选举的选民早已对高物价和特朗普治下的经济状况怒火中烧。
第二个问题是，这一计划是否基于对伊朗国内状况的可靠情报，以及对伊朗领导人可能作出反应的合理推断。毕竟，华盛顿长期以来存在一种不可靠的倾向：将美国的逻辑套用于那些不会按美国总统预期作出反应的中东社会。
总统押注的是，伊朗作为一个曾有过让本国民众承受巨大痛苦记录的激进伊斯兰神权政权，其领导人将纯粹出于经济动机作出反应——就像他身处其境时可能会做的那样。
2026年4月28日，加利福尼亚州洛杉矶的雪佛龙加油站展示的油价超过每加仑8美元。
弗雷德里克·J·布朗/法新社/盖蒂图片社
2026年4月29日，伊朗德黑兰举行的一场集会。
马吉德-阿斯加里普尔/瓦纳通讯社/路透社
不断升级的伊朗危机
越来越多的迹象表明，伊朗经济正陷入严重困境。《华尔街日报》周三报道称，战争造成的损失包括100万人失业、食品价格飞涨，以及因互联网中断而濒临崩溃的线上经济。通胀肆虐，红肉等主食已变得难以负担。中东媒体报道警告称，物资短缺问题日益严重，粮食安全受到威胁。
伊朗石油部长穆赫辛·帕克内贾德周三警告民众削减能源消耗。政府部门还被要求在每日下午1点后将用电量减少70%。
据两名消息人士透露，CNN白宫团队报道称，美国官员获取的情报预测，伊朗经济即便还能撑几天，也仅能再维持数周。特朗普也反复宣称，伊朗无法出口石油意味着其石油生产将被迫停止，油井将遭受重大损害，修复工作可能需要数年时间。
中东研究所高级研究员亚历克斯·瓦坦卡认为，封锁可能会造成严重的经济痛苦，并进而演变为无法控制的政治反对声浪。
但他补充了一个至关重要的警告：这一过程可能需要数月时间。
“我们必须牢记的第一件事是，我们从未经历过这种情况，这是一片未被探索的领域，”瓦坦卡说道，“伊朗从未遭遇过封锁，即便在两伊战争期间也没有。”
2026年4月18日，太阳升起在伊朗格什姆岛海岸外霍尔木兹海峡锚泊的油轮后方。
阿斯加尔·贝沙拉蒂/美联社
瓦坦卡表示，他可以预见数百万民众可能走上街头要求救济的场景。“这将是伊朗政权此前从未面临过的考验——这并不意味着它无法依靠镇压手段维持统治……但问题在于，他们能否平息如此大规模的愤怒情绪。”
不过，瓦坦卡警告称，经济崩溃能否引发政治变革，取决于反政权抗议活动的组织程度以及政权内部的倒戈情况，而这些在伊朗尚未出现。
特朗普可能没有时间等待反革命爆发。他的支持率处于历史低位，共和党人担心在11月的选举中失去众议院席位，且在参议院的席位也将面临艰难的保卫战。战争持续的时间越长，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡的时间越久，美国遭受的损失就越大。
特朗普的个人心理或许也会发挥作用。在任期仅剩1000天之际，他似乎一心想要留下传奇政绩，梦想着宏伟的建筑工程。对于一个自视为人生终极赢家的人来说，在与伊朗的战争中被贴上失败者的标签，无疑是最大的耻辱。
总有一天，特朗普或许不会再打塔可（TACO）牌了。
2026年4月28日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在华盛顿白宫南草坪为英国国王查尔斯三世和王后卡米拉举行的欢迎仪式上发表讲话。
布伦丹·斯米亚洛夫斯基/法新社/盖蒂图片社
封锁可能失败的原因
即便特朗普誓言要长期坚持，封锁战略仍有可能从根本上就是错误的。
如果说刺杀伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊都未能迫使伊朗投降，数周的持续轰炸也未能动摇其领导人的决心，那么又有什么理由认为一场经济危机能够做到这一点？
伊斯兰共和国的韧性和固执早已声名远扬。
几十年来，伊朗一直承受着西方的制裁。上世纪80年代，它与伊拉克打了一场惨烈的八年战争，估计造成100万人伤亡。每当抗议活动达到临界规模时，该政权就会派出暴徒上街屠杀平民，以挽救革命。
自伊斯兰革命以来的47年里，该政权的核心意识形态一直是对抗美国“大撒旦”。它或许宁愿选择社会崩溃，也不愿向特朗普屈服。
2026年4月21日，伊朗神职人员在德黑兰大巴扎内交谈。
马吉德·阿斯加里普尔/瓦纳通讯社/路透社
2026年4月22日，民众走过伊朗德黑兰一栋建筑外的反美涂鸦墙。
马吉德-阿斯加里普尔/瓦纳通讯社/路透社
昆西负责任治国研究所执行副总裁特里塔·帕尔西表示，特朗普团队是最新一届错误地认为施压运动可以迫使伊朗屈服的美国政府。
“人们一直在寻找那种灵丹妙药，只要施加一点压力，就能让伊朗要么崩溃、要么投降，要么就顺从美国的意愿，”帕尔西说道，“而美国几乎每次走上这条道路，最终都以失望告终。”
特朗普的信心也反映了华盛顿另一个老生常谈的趋势——一种从未得到印证的信念，尤其是在保守派中，即伊朗经济和政权随时都可能崩溃。
“他们必须认输，仅此而已。只要说一句‘我们投降，我们投降’就行，”特朗普周三在椭圆形办公室说道。
如果伊朗真的投降，特朗普将打破历史上徒劳无益的循环，最终结束美国与这个死敌近半个世纪的对抗。
但如果行动失败，他只会再次证明，伊斯兰共和国甘愿承受一轮又一轮打击的韧性，足以抵消美国强大得多的军力。
Trump is betting his blockade will defy history and break Iran
2026-04-30T04:00:50.966Z / CNN
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
PUBLISHED Apr 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
The Middle East Donald Trump
Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Pinckney escorts a vessel while conducting blockade operations, on April 22, 2026.
US Navy
President Donald Trump’s maritime blockade is the latest attempt to test a thus far unproven theory of the Iran war — that superior US might will inevitably break the Islamic Republic.
The strategy is based on a simple premise: The strangulation of Iran’s oil exports and the imports that sustain regular life there will trigger societal collapse. This will build unbearable pressure on the regime to bow to US demands to permanently renounce its nuclear program.
In Washington, this seems logical. Every nation, whether a radical theocracy or Western democracy, will crumble if it can’t assure access to the basics — food, energy and work. When US officials see soaring inflation, catastrophic job losses and shortages in Tehran, they conclude the two-week blockade is working.
“The blockade is genius, OK?” Trump said Wednesday. “Their economy is in real trouble. It’s a dead economy.” The president is so pleased with the plan that he’s steeled aides for it to last much longer, CNN reported.
One reason is that it’s a way of heaping pressure on Iran without risking US casualties with ground operations or resuming bombing that was relentless but inconclusive. Another is that it seeks to restore US leverage in economic warfare eroded when Iran set off a global crisis by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
People sit on benches overlooking the city in Tehran, Iran, on April 16.
Thaier Al-Sudani/Reuters
The US economy is far mightier than Iran’s, so this should be no contest. Then again, a fearsome US-Israel air assault devastated Iran’s military, but wasn’t able to secure a strategic victory in the war.
Trump’s bullishness will confront two questions that will decide the fate of his latest strategy in a war that has often seemed to lack a rationale or endgame.
The first is how long Trump, his fellow Republicans and the American people can take the rising costs of the war, including $4-plus gasoline and a likely rise in inflation. Midterm election voters are already angry at high costs and Trump’s economy.
The second question is whether the plan is based on realistic intelligence about conditions in Iran and sound reasoning on how its leaders might react. There is, after all, a long and dubious tendency in Washington to apply American logic to Middle Eastern societies that don’t react as US presidents expect.
The president is betting that Iran’s leaders, in a radical Islamic theocracy with a record of inflicting extraordinary pain on its own people, will react purely on economic motives — as perhaps he might in their shoes.
Gas prices exceeding $8 a gallon are seen listed at a Chevron gas station in Los Angeles, California, on April 28.
Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images
A rally in Tehran, Iran, on April 29.
Majid-Asgaripour/Wana News Agency/Reuters
A mounting crisis in Iran
There is growing evidence that Iran’s economy is in terrible trouble. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the war’s costs include a million unemployed; soaring food prices; and an internet shutdown that has stifled the online economy. Inflation is rampant and staples like red meat are unaffordable. Middle Eastern media reports warn of growing shortages and threats to food security.
Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad warned the public on Wednesday to cut consumption of energy. And government offices have been ordered to cut electricity use by 70% after 1 p.m.
CNN’s White House team reported that US officials are reading intelligence that predicts the Iranian economy can only survive for a few weeks, if not days, according to two sources. And Trump repeatedly claims Iran’s inability to export oil means it will have to halt production and risk huge damage to oil wells that could take years to fix.
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, argued the blockade could wreak severe economic pain that could translate into uncontrollable political opposition.
But he added a critical caveat: This could take months.
“The first thing to remember is that we’ve never been here before; this is uncharted territory,” Vatanka said. “The blockade is nothing Iran’s ever experienced, not even during the Iran-Iraq war.”
The sun rises behind a tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Qeshm Island, Iran, on April 18.
Asghar Besharati/AP
Vatanka said he could foresee a time when millions of workers would potentially come onto the streets and demand relief. “That is where the regime will be tested in ways it hasn’t been tested before — it doesn’t mean it can’t prevail, relying on repression. … But it’s going to be a question of whether they can overcome the volume of anger.”
Vatanka warned, however, that the potential for economic collapse to spark political change would rely on a level of organization in anti-regime protests and regime defections that are yet to materialize in Iran.
Trump might not have time to wait for the counter-revolution. His approval ratings are at historic lows and Republicans fear losing the House and facing an uphill fight to cling onto the Senate in November. The longer the war goes on and Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, the greater the damage in the US.
Trump’s personal psychology may also play a role. He seems fixated on his legacy as he dreams of grand architectural works in his last 1,000 days in office. Nothing would be more shameful for a man who sees himself as one of life’s ultimate winners as being branded a loser in a war with Iran.
One day, Trump may not TACO.
President Donald Trump speaks during an arrival ceremony for Britain’s King Charles III and Queen Camilla on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, on April 28.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
How the blockade might fail
Yet even if Trump vows to go long, there’s always a chance that the blockade strategy is simply flawed.
If the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei didn’t cause Iran to quit and weeks of relentless bombing didn’t break the resolve of its leaders, is there reason to think an economic crisis might?
The Islamic Republic’s persistence and stubbornness have become legendary.
Iran has labored under Western sanctions for decades. It endured a horrendous eight-year war with an estimated 1 million casualties against Iraq in the 1980s. Every time protesters threatened to reach a critical mass, the regime sent its thugs on the streets to massacre civilians to save the revolution.
The regime’s entire ethos in the 47 years since the Islamic Revolution has been resistance to the US “Great Satan.” It might choose societal collapse over caving into Trump.
Iranian clerics speak in Tehran Bazaar in Tehran, Iran, on April 21.
Majid Asgaripour/Wana News Agency/Reuters
People walk past an anti-US mural on a building in Tehran, Iran, on April 22.
Majid-Asgaripour/Wana News Agency/Reuters
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that Trump’s team was the latest US administration to believe, wrongly, that a pressure campaign could force Iran to give in.
“There is that constant search for that silver bullet, that one point of pressure that causes the Iranians to either collapse, capitulate or just mend themselves to America’s wishes,” Parsi said. “And almost every time the US goes down that path, it ends up disappointing itself.”
Trump’s confidence also reflects another familiar Washington trend — a never-reconciled belief, especially prevalent among conservatives, that the Iranian economy and regime is perpetually about to collapse.
“They have to cry uncle, that’s all they have to do. Just say, ‘We give up, we give up,’” the president said in the Oval Office on Wednesday.
If Iran does so, Trump could break a futile cycle of history and finally end America’s near half-century duel with a bitter enemy.
If it fails, he will only have proved yet again that the Islamic Republic’s willingness to take punch after punch can neuter far greater American power.