2026年2月27日 美国东部时间凌晨5:00 | 《华盛顿邮报》
大多数人都全力支持MAGA(让美国再次伟大)。
(插图由Lucy Naland/《华盛顿邮报》;Jabin Botsford/《华盛顿邮报》;Maxine Wallace/《华盛顿邮报》;Tom Brenner/《华盛顿邮报》;Demetrius Freeman/《华盛顿邮报》;Evan Vucci/美联社;iStock提供)
分析:Amber Phillips
在唐纳德·特朗普总统执政十年后,谁将领导共和党?
共和党目前正为此问题苦苦思索。在特朗普重塑保守主义并两次赢得白宫后,该党下一任领袖很可能会延续MAGA价值观。本月《华盛顿邮报》-美国广播公司-益普索的民调显示,71%的共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士认为,共和党领导人应该效仿特朗普。
以下是2028年共和党初选的早期候选人阵容情况。这是我们的第二次排名;第一次排名请见此处。(民主党排名请见此处。)
现在还为时过早,我们为意外情况留有余地,因为正如一些战略家指出的,在2024年竞选的这个时候,许多共和党人已经对特朗普感到失望。我们很快会再次更新这些排名;欢迎大家发表看法。
突出候选人
副总统JD·万斯(JD Vance):万斯一直紧跟特朗普。
他辩护了政府的政策,即使这需要他转变一些立场。他风格激进好斗:他将党内关于阴谋论者的激烈辩论斥为”纯度测试”,咒骂批评者,并对特朗普分享一段将米歇尔和巴拉克·奥巴马描绘成猿人的种族主义视频引发的愤怒不屑一顾。
紧跟特朗普的第二任期
在周二的国情咨文演讲中,特朗普宣布万斯正在领导一场针对移民实施的”欺诈战争”。
万斯是个有争议的人物;他最近前往意大利参加奥运会时,不时遭到嘘声。但共和党选民似乎喜欢他的表现:在9月份的YouGov民调中,万斯在共和党人认为可能会投票支持的2028年候选人名单中位居榜首。他在共和党政治中的未来可能会很长。41岁的他是这份名单上最年轻的候选人,也是历史上最年轻的副总统之一。
马尔科·卢比奥(Marco Rubio):特朗普的国务卿对任何可能的总统竞选都附加了条件。”如果JD·万斯竞选总统,他将成为我们的候选人,”他去年告诉《名利场》,”我会是第一个支持他的人之一。”
但一些共和党人并不相信他会坐视不管,即使万斯参选。
“万斯和卢比奥是共和党领域的一二号选手,”亚利桑那州前共和党州参议员、政治顾问斯坦·巴恩斯说,”我认为没有人能与之竞争。”
卢比奥主持了加沙和平谈判和推翻委内瑞拉总统等重大国际事件。特朗普任命他帮助”管理”那个南美国家。在特朗普第二任期期间,他曾担任国家安全顾问和美国国际开发署署长等多个职务。
特朗普经常提到他作为接班人:”马尔科很棒,”特朗普说,他还补充说万斯和卢比奥:”我不确定是否有人会与这两人竞争。我认为如果他们组队,将势不可挡。”
中间梯队
特德·克鲁兹(Ted Cruz):这位曾竞选过总统的德克萨斯州参议员似乎正将自己定位为万斯的替代者。虽然万斯表示党内所有观点都应受到欢迎,但克鲁兹主张共和党应排斥MAGA评论家塔克·卡尔森,因为卡尔森采访了一个称阿道夫·希特勒”很酷”的白人至上主义者。
“我们每个人都有责任站出来说这是错误的,”克鲁兹说。
他还偶尔批评特朗普政府,称其施压取消深夜主持人吉米·金梅尔节目”该死的危险”。他警告不要支持特朗普的关税政策,并最近表示他不能支持总统提名的一位大使人选。在闭门会议中,他称万斯的外交政策观点具有危险的孤立主义倾向。
彼得·赫格塞斯(Pete Hegseth):特朗普的国防部长上任第一年就遇到了麻烦:他与家人分享国家安全信息,一名记者被意外加入了一个有关军事行动的群聊(一家独立监督机构称,赫格塞斯使用Signal应用程序进行行动,”造成了对作战安全的风险”)。
五角大楼领导层似乎一直动荡不安,被罢免的官员有时会批评赫格塞斯。他试图将军费预算提高50%,这一增幅如此巨大,以至于一些国防官员表示不知道该如何花完这笔钱。他与9月发生的一起船只撞击事件划清界限,该事件还导致两名幸存者在残骸上丧生(军事专家称这可能构成战争罪)。他试图惩罚退休海军舰长、参议员马克·凯利的努力失败了,这被广泛视为给了这位亚利桑那州民主党人启动自己总统野心的跳板。
然而,赫格塞斯仍然得到特朗普的支持,并且在极右翼中仍然是一个受欢迎的人物。
“我们不信任’觉醒文化’,”他最近说,”我们信任上帝。”
克里斯蒂·L·诺姆(Kristi L. Noem):特朗普的国土安全部部长是总统不受欢迎的移民政策的毫不掩饰的代表。她将一个曾经专注于反恐的部门转变为几乎完全关注移民执法,有时做得太过头,让白宫感到不安:她提拔极右翼人物格雷格·博维诺领导明尼苏达州的驱逐行动激增,结果在两名美国公民在他任内丧生后,特朗普将他撤换。
尽管有视频与此说法相悖,诺姆仍迅速指责受害者;特朗普也软化了自己对事件的措辞。白宫最近还出面阻止了她暂停TSA预检的计划。
但诺姆和赫格塞斯一样,得到了特朗普的支持。民主党人呼吁弹劾她,这可能只会增强她的MAGA资历。
小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪(Robert F. Kennedy Jr.):特朗普的卫生部长(他本人曾在2024年竞选总统)搅动了美国公共卫生。曾在两党政府中任职的前外科医生警告说,他是个危险人物,因为他推翻了儿童疫苗接种建议,这一政策广受反对。但肯尼迪正在影响共和党及其领导人。特朗普现在经常分享毫无根据的疫苗怀疑论观点,而肯尼迪在”让美国健康再次”(MAHA)运动中拥有自己的支持者。
罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis):这位佛罗里达州激进的社会保守派州长也是共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士希望在初选中看到的候选人(根据YouGov民调)。德桑蒂斯在2024年初选中挑战特朗普,并且仍然是福克斯新闻和保守派活动中的常客。他的州长任期将于2027年结束,因此在卸任公职后,他有时间为总统竞选积累势头。
唐纳德·特朗普三世(Donald Trump Jr.):特朗普的长子从未担任过公职,但他是父亲的顾问和知己。他似乎正在为自己是MAGA王位的合法继承人而造势,最近谈到他的竞选愿望时说:”那种使命感是存在的。”
黑马候选人
州长和参议员:他们不像特朗普政府成员那样高调,但弗吉尼亚州的格伦·杨金(上月卸任)、佐治亚州的布莱恩·肯普(曾在本州反驳特朗普关于2020年选举的说法)和阿肯色州的莎拉·赫卡比·桑德斯(前白宫新闻秘书)等共和党州长正受到政治内部人士的关注。
在参议院,克鲁兹受到了很多关注,但共和党人表示不要排除肯塔基州参议员兰德·保罗(对支出持批评态度的特朗普批评者)、南卡罗来纳州参议员蒂姆·斯科特或其他人可能参选的可能性。
特朗普本人? 特朗普表示他”很乐意”竞选第三任期。但他不能这样做,因为总统不能超过两届任期。”宪法对此非常明确,”乔治敦大学宪法法专家乔希·查菲茨说。即使他想引发宪法危机以继续掌权,特朗普可能也得不到国会中一些最忠实支持者的支持。
“很明显,”特朗普在与路易斯安那州共和党众议长迈克·约翰逊私下交谈后告诉记者,”我不能参选。”
此外,到2028年他将82岁。但特朗普关于另一个任期的想法并非完全可以忽视,因为他正以现代总统从未有过的方式积累总统权力。
迈克·彭斯或另一位非MAGA候选人:特朗普的前副总统在2024年曾短暂竞选过特朗普的替代者,但很快退出。他表示不打算参选,但他正在其智库中积聚影响力,可能会影响竞选。共和党战略家预计会有像犹他州州长斯宾塞·考克斯或前联合国大使妮基·黑利这样的人以特朗普主义的替代者身份参选。
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Ranking the 2028 Republican presidential contenders
February 27, 2026 at 5:00 a.m. EST | The Washington Post
Most are all-in on MAGA.
(Illustration by Lucy Naland/The Washington Post; Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post; Maxine Wallace/The Washington Post; Tom Brenner/For The Washington Post; Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post; Evan Vucci/AP; iStock)
Analysis by Amber Phillips
Who is going to lead the Republican Party after a decade of President Donald Trump?
The Republican Party is grappling with that question now. After Trump reimagined conservatism and won the White House twice, it’s likely the next leader of the GOP will keep MAGA values. This month, a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that 71 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents think GOP leaders should follow in Trump’s mold.
Here is how the early field is taking shape for the 2028 Republican primaries. This is our second ranking; here’s the first. (Here are Democrats’ rankings.)
It’s early, and we leave room for surprises because — as some strategists have noted — at this time in the 2024 campaign, many Republicans had soured on Trump. We’ll revisit these rankings again soon; let us know what you think?
The standouts
Vice President JD Vance: Vance has hewed close to Trump.
He has defended the administration’s policies, even when doing so requires him to reverse some of his positions. And he has an aggressive, combative style: He brushed off a raging debate in his party about conspiracy theorists as a “purity test,” curses at his critics, and dismissed anger over Trump sharing a racist video that depicted Michelle and Barack Obama as apes.
Follow Trump’s second term
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At the State of the Union on Tuesday, Trump announced Vance was leading a “war” on fraud that the president said was being perpetrated by immigrants.
Vance is a divisive figure; when he recently went to the Olympics in Italy, he was jeered at times. But Republican voters seem to like what they are seeing: In a September YouGov poll, Vance topped the list of 2028 candidates Republicans said would consider voting for. His future in GOP politics could be a long one. At 41, he’s the youngest candidate on this list and one of the youngest vice presidents in history.
Marco Rubio:Trump’s secretary of state has put a condition on any possible presidential bid. “If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee,” he told Vanity Fair last year, “and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.”
But some Republicans aren’t convinced that he’s sitting it out, even if Vance were to run.
“Vance and Rubio are the one-two punch of the Republican universe,” said Stan Barnes, a former GOP state senator in Arizona and political consultant. “I do not think anyone else can compete.”
Rubio has presided over major international developments, like Gaza peace talks and ousting Venezuela’s president. Trump assigned him to help “run” that South American country. Rubio has held additional jobs at various times during the second Trump administration, including national security adviser and USAID director.
Trump frequently mentions him as a successor: “Marco’s great,” Trump said, adding of Vance and Rubio: “I’m not sure if anybody would run against those two. I think if they formed a group, it would be unstoppable.”
The middle of the pack
Ted Cruz:The Texas senator, who has run for president before, appears to be positioning himself as an alternative to Vance. While Vance says all views in the party should be welcome, Cruz is advocating for his party to ostracize MAGA pundit Tucker Carlson for interviewing a white nationalist who has said Adolf Hitler is “cool.”
“Every one of us has an obligation to stand up and stay it is wrong,” Cruz said.
He has also criticized the Trump administration occasionally, calling its pressure campaign to cancel late-night host Jimmy Kimmel’s show “dangerous as hell.” He has warned against Trump’s tariffs and recently said he couldn’t support one of the president’s picks for ambassador. Behind closed doors, he’s said Vance’s foreign policy views are dangerously isolationist.
Pete Hegseth: Trump’s defense secretary had a rough first year: He shared national security information with family, and a journalist was accidentally added to a group chat about a military operation. (An independent watchdog said Hegseth “created a risk to operational security” by using the app Signal for the operation.)
Pentagon leadership seems constantly in turmoil, with ousted officials sometimes criticizing Hegseth. He’s trying to boost the military budget by 50 percent, an increase so huge that some defense officials say they wouldn’t know how to spend it all. He distanced himself from a September boat strike that also killed two survivors clinging to the wreckage, which military experts say may constitute a war crime. His effort to punish Sen. Mark Kelly, a retired Navy captain, over a video failed — and was widely seen as giving the Arizona Democrat a launchpad for his own presidential ambitions.
However, Hegseth still has Trump’s support and remains a popular figure on the far right.
“We don’t trust in woke,” he said recently. “We trust in God.”
Kristi L. Noem: Trump’s head of homeland security is the unapologetic face of the president’s unpopular tactics to deport undocumented immigrants. She has transformed a department once focused on terrorism to be almost entirely about immigration enforcement, sometimes pushing things too far for the White House’s comfort: She elevated the far-right figure Greg Bovino to lead a deportation surge in Minnesota, only to have Trump replace him after two U.S. citizens were killed on his watch.
Noem was quick to blame the victims, despite video contradicting her claims; Trump softened his own language on what happened. The White House also recently stepped in to stop her plan to suspend TSA PreCheck.
But Noem, like Hegseth, has Trump’s support. And Democrats are calling for her impeachment, which may only serve to bolster her MAGA credentials.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr:Kennedy, Trump’s health secretary —who ran for president himself in 2024 — has roiled American public health. Former surgeons general who served in administrations of both parties warned he’s a danger, as he rolls back vaccine recommendations for children, a policy that is broadly unpopular. But Kennedy is influencing the Republican Party and its leaders. Trump now regularly shares unfounded vaccine skepticism, and Kennedy has his own base in the MAHA (Make America Healthy Again) movement.
Ron DeSantis: Florida’s fiery, socially conservative governor is also a candidate whom Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they’d like to see in a primary, according to the YouGov poll. DeSantis ran against Trump in the 2024 primaries and remains a fixture on Fox News and at conservative events. His run as governor ends in 2027, so he would have time to build momentum for a presidential run while out of public office.
Donald Trump Jr.:Trump’s eldest son has never held public office, but he is an adviser and confidant to his father. He seems to be making the case that he’s the rightful heir to the MAGA throne, saying recently of his desire to run: “That calling is there.”
The dark horses
Governors and senators:They’re not as high profile as members of Trump’s administration, but Republican governors like Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin (who left office last month), Georgia’s Brian Kemp (who has pushed back on Trump’s claims about the 2020 election in his state)and Arkansas’ Sarah Huckabee Sanders (a former White House press secretary) are being watched by political insiders.
In the Senate, Cruz is getting a lot of attention, but Republicans say not to count out potential runs by Sen. Rand Paul (Kentucky), a Trump critic on spending, Sen. Tim Scott (South Carolina) or others.
Trump himself? Trump has said he’d “love to” run for a third term. He can’t, though, because a president cannot serve more than two terms. “The Constitution is very clear about that,” said Josh Chafetz, a constitutional law expert at Georgetown University. Even if he wanted to start a constitutional crisis to stay in power, Trump may not have the backing of some of his most loyal supporters in Congress.
“It’s pretty clear,” Trump told reporters after talking privately with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) about this. “I’m not allowed to run.”
Plus, he will be 82 in 2028. But Trump’s musings about another term aren’t something to entirely discount, as he pushes to amass presidential power in a way no modern president has.
Mike Pence or another not-quite-MAGA candidate:Trump’s former vice president briefly ran in 2024 as an alternative to Trump but quickly dropped out. He has said he doesn’t plan to run, but he is amassing power at his think tank that could influence the race. Republican strategists expect someone in his mold, like Utah Gov. Spencer Cox — or perhaps former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley — to run as an alternative to Trumpism.
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