作者：艾伦·布雷克（Aaron Blake），2小时前（发布于2026年3月10日，美国东部时间下午5:44） / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）政治版
国会共和党人多年来一直被唐纳德·特朗普总统关于非法移民和非法投票的荒诞言论所裹挟。
尽管他们通常并未附和他最具争议的说法，但他们暗示这是一个严重到需要联邦立法解决的问题——尽管事实上非公民投票本身就已经是非法的，而且几乎没有证据表明这种情况正在发生。
然而，随着2026年中期选举临近，越来越多的迹象表明，共和党人可能会后悔助长了这一特定“问题”。
在被共和党人称为“拯救美国法案”（SAVE America Act）的这项立法上，该党似乎陷入了两难境地。
图注： 共和党参议员迈克·李（Mike Lee）在2025年9月10日上议院公园举行的“只有公民投票巴士之旅”集会上与与会者交谈。
来源： 汤姆·威廉姆斯（Tom Williams）/CQ卷册/美联社/档案照片
困境：一边是狂热的基础支持者与特朗普的要求，另一边是参议院共和党人难以找到通过法案的直接途径
共和党人正面临着一个“左右为难”的局面：一方面，其选民基础和总统特朗普对这项立法的要求日益狂热；另一方面，参议院共和党人似乎没有像众议院那样直接通过该法案的办法。
而特朗普正日益将其政党逼入绝境。
共和党人的问题在于，他们在2026年选举的热情上已经远远落后于民主党人。如果无法满足这一要求，其政治风险可能会加剧——尤其是考虑到特朗普及其盟友正将这项立法塑造为关键议题。
右翼日益高涨的狂热情绪
保守派对这项立法背后热情的最明显体现，或许可以从参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（John Thune）在社交平台X（原推特）上的帖子回复中找到。无论这位南达科他州共和党人最近发布什么主题的内容，都会收到大量要求通过“拯救美国法案”的呼声。
这种狂热情绪正越来越多地蔓延到一些共和党议员，他们要求不惜一切代价推动法案通过。他们甚至推动消除参议院的阻挠议事规则（filibuster），即60票才能阻止法案的通过，这让一些人担心，如果民主党控制参议院，这反而会对民主党更有利。
而特朗普本人也在不断加大压力。
图注： 众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（Mike Johnson）于2026年2月11日在美国国会大厦举行的新闻发布会上发言。
来源： 迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥（Michael M. Santiago）/盖蒂图片社
最近几天，特朗普甚至暗示，除非参议院通过这项投票法案，否则他可能会在得克萨斯州检察长肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）的共和党初选中，拒绝支持参议员约翰·科宁（John Cornyn）——而共和党领导层非常希望他能这样做。
“我很快就会做出决定，但我非常希望，我们必须拥有完整的‘拯救美国法案’，明白吗？我想要‘拯救美国法案’。它比我们正在处理的其他一切事情都重要，除了战争。”特朗普周五在接受美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的达娜·巴什（Dana Bash）采访时表示。
总统还表示，如果这项投票法案不通过，他将不会签署任何其他法案，除非是为了结束国土安全部的停摆。（需要注意的是，未签署的法案在10天后仍会自动生效；要阻止法案，他必须动用否决权。）
上周在接受全国广播公司（NBC）电话采访时，特朗普甚至说：“我会因此关闭政府。”
共和党的（不佳）选择
共和党人通过这项立法的选择乏善可陈。
最常被提及的想法或许是实施“连续发言阻挠议事”（talking filibuster）——这一想法由犹他州共和党参议员迈克·李大力推动。这实际上意味着，如果少数党想要阻止像“拯救美国法案”这样的法案，他们必须在参议院议场上连续发言，而不仅仅是通过投票来搁置法案。
但这在理论上比在实践中更可行。实际上，这可能意味着参议院的工作会被拖延数周或数月，且无法保证成功。
这一过程还可能导致民主党人提出修正案，从而彻底破坏整个法案。
图恩表示：“我在历史上找不到任何通过这种方式通过的法案。”
另一个被路易斯安那州参议员约翰·肯尼迪（John Kennedy）提出的选项是尝试通过“预算协调”（budget reconciliation）程序来通过法案，这只需要简单多数票。
但问题在于，这类立法的条款必须主要与支出或收入相关，而参议院的议会规则专家很可能裁定投票法条款不符合要求。
最后一个选项是彻底废除阻挠议事规则——即所谓的“核选项”。
但与十年前民主党人提出类似想法时一样，参议院共和党人似乎没有足够的票数支持这一做法。一些更注重制度和中间派的共和党人肯定会担心这一做法预示着什么——尤其是如果民主党日后重新控制参议院的话。
但“拯救美国法案”的最激进支持者对这些障碍几乎不屑一顾，他们越来越推动共和党不顾一切地试图通过这项立法。
与此同时，特朗普要求将更多无关想法纳入法案，包括限制跨性别运动员和对未成年人的性别认同治疗，以及禁止邮寄投票。
他周一打赌说，这些政策中的一些非常受欢迎，民主党人将不得不投票支持这项法案，尽管这似乎不太可能。
“所以我们添加了这两个要点，”特朗普说，“我们要争取成功，而且我们必须拼命奋斗。”
图恩明显的挫败感
图恩似乎对这一切感到不堪重负。
“这个过程比目前人们想象的要复杂和危险得多，”他周一表示。
“首先，没有足够的票数来废除阻挠议事规则，也没有足够的票数支持‘连续发言阻挠议事’，”他周二补充道，“这是一个事实，而我有时不得不传达这个不太好的消息，即票数无法凑齐。但这就是事实，无法回避。”
这位南达科他州共和党人敦促特朗普将得克萨斯州的支持与法案的命运脱钩，称“这种关联可能不符合任何人的最佳利益”。
（换句话说，如果科宁在得克萨斯州大选中获胜，他认为共和党控制的参议院更有可能受益于特朗普的支持。）
最后，对于一向低调的图恩来说，他周一将“拯救美国法案”的压力归咎于“付费影响者生态系统”，这是一些非常坦率的评论。
李在周一晚间对此评论进行了回击。
共和党的热情危机
即使图恩的理论——这场运动并非完全自发——有一定道理，这些要求也日益真实。
特朗普及其盟友正将这项投票法案塑造为共和党在2026年中期选举中胜败的关键。（一方面是因为他声称该法案很受欢迎，另一方面是因为它可以阻止所谓的民主党舞弊。）
但对共和党人来说，潜在的政治问题在于，如果图恩是对的，即无法通过任何途径通过该法案，情况会怎样。
美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）、《华盛顿邮报》、福克斯新闻和全国广播公司（NBC）最近的民调显示，民主党人对2026年中期选举的投票热情明显更高——在每次民调中，民主党人的热情都高出两位数。
美国有线电视新闻网1月份的民调显示，66%的民主党人和倾向民主党的独立人士表示他们“极其”有投票动机，而共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士中这一比例仅为50%。
图注： 唐纳德·特朗普总统于3月9日在佛罗里达州多拉的特朗普国家多拉迈阿密举行的共和党成员问题会议上发表讲话。
来源： 马克·谢菲尔贝恩（Mark Schiefelbein）/美联社
特朗普的很多做法似乎正在测试一些共和党人的承受极限。而现在，他试图通过推动一项可能永远无法签署成为法律的法案，进一步疏远共和党选民。
如果总统不退缩，而共和党领导人又无法想出办法，他们可能会面临一个大问题——一个很大程度上由自身造成的问题。
Republicans face a growing conundrum on the ‘SAVE America Act’
Analysis by Aaron Blake, 2 hr ago (Published Mar 10, 2026, 5:44 PM ET) / CNN Politics
Congressional Republicans have spent years playing into President Donald Trump’s wild claims about undocumented immigrants and illegal voting.
And while they often haven’t echoed his most controversial claims, they’ve suggested it’s a serious enough problem that it requires federal legislation — despite the fact that it’s already illegal for noncitizens to vote and there’s scant evidence that it’s happening.
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, though, it’s looking more and more like Republicans could come to regret feeding this particular beast.
The party appears stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the legislation the GOP has dubbed the “SAVE America Act” to address this purported problem.
GOP Sen. Mike Lee talks with attendees of a “Only Citizens Vote Bus Tour” rally in Upper Senate Park on September 10, 2025.
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/AP/File
The rock is the increasingly apocalyptic demands of a base and a president who appear insistent about this legislation, and the hard place is the fact that Senate Republicans don’t appear to have any straightforward way to pass it like the House did.
And Trump is further boxing in his party with every passing day.
The problem for Republicans is that they’re already lagging far behind Democrats on enthusiasm for the 2026 election. And failure to deliver on this demand looks like it could exacerbate their political peril — especially given how much Trump and his allies are building this up.
The growing fervor on the right
Perhaps the most telling manifestation of the conservative passion behind this legislation can be found in the replies to Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s posts on X. It seems that no matter what subject the South Dakota Republican posts about these days, he’s met with a chorus of demands to pass the “SAVE America Act.”
The fervor has increasingly spread to some GOP lawmakers who are demanding a whatever-it-takes approach. They’re pushing to go as far as eliminating the filibuster and its 60-vote threshold for legislation in the Senate, which some worry would ultimately help Democrats — if they take control of the chamber — more than Republicans.
And Trump himself has ratcheted up the pressure.
House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks at a news conference on February 11, 2026, at the US Capitol.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
In recent days, he’s gone so far as to indicate he might withhold an endorsement of Sen. John Cornyn in his primary runoff with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — an endorsement GOP leadership would very much like to see — until the Senate passes the voting bill.
“I’m making a decision fairly shortly, but I want and then I feel very strongly that we have to have the full and complete ‘SAVE America Act,’ OK? I want the SAVE America Act. It is more important than everything else we’re working on, other than the war,” Trump told CNN’s Dana Bash on Friday.
The president has also said he wouldn’t sign any other legislation if the voting measure isn’t passed, except a bill to end the shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security. (It’s worth noting that legislation that isn’t signed still becomes law after 10 days; to stop a bill, he would have to veto them.)
And in a phone interview with NBC last week, Trump said, “I would close the government over it.”
The GOP’s (not-good) options
Republicans’ choices for passing the legislation leave plenty to be desired.
Perhaps the most oft-mentioned idea is implementing the “talking filibuster” — an idea pushed hard by GOP Sen. Mike Lee of Utah. This would basically mean that a minority that wants to halt a bill like the “SAVE America Act” would actually have to speak continuously on the Senate floor, rather than just take a vote that would table the legislation.
But this works better in theory than in practice. In reality, it could simply mean that the Senate’s efforts get gummed up for weeks or months, with no guarantee of success.
The process would also mean Democrats could offer amendments that could torpedo that whole bill.
Thune has said that he “can’t find a piece of legislation in history that’s been passed that way.”
Another option floated by Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana would be trying to pass the bill via the “budget reconciliation” process, which requires a simple majority vote.
The problem there is that provisions in such legislation must primarily be related to spending or revenue, and the Senate parliamentarian might well rule that voting laws don’t qualify.
And the final option would be to nix the filibuster entirely — the so-called “nuclear option.”
But similar to when Democrats floated this idea earlier this decade, the Senate GOP doesn’t seem to have the votes. And some more institutionally minded and centrist Republicans would surely fear what that would portend — especially if Democrats regain Senate control down the road.
But the most aggressive proponents of the “SAVE America Act” have little regard for these obstacles; they’re increasingly pushing for the GOP to stop at nothing to try and pass the legislation.
Trump, meanwhile, is asking that it include more unrelated ideas, including restrictions on transgender athletes and gender identity care for minors, as well as prohibiting mail-in voting.
He wagered Monday that some of those policies are so popular that Democrats will have to vote for the legislation, even though that appears very unlikely.
“So we added those two points,” Trump said. “We’re going for the gold, and we’re going to have to fight like hell.”
Thune’s apparent exasperation
Senate Majority Leader John Thune speaks to reporters at the US Capitol on Tuesday, March 10.
Jose Luis Magana/AP
Thune appears to be over it all.
“This process is more complicated and risky than people are assuming at the moment,” he said Monday.
“The votes aren’t there, one, to nuke the filibuster and the votes aren’t there for a talking filibuster,” he added Tuesday. “It’s just a reality, and I’m the person who has to deliver sometimes the not-so-good news that the math doesn’t add up. But those are the facts. There’s no getting around it.”
The South Dakota Republican urged Trump to decouple a Texas endorsement from the fate of the legislation, saying, “It’s probably not a linkage that is in anybody’s best interest.”
(In other words, a GOP-controlled Senate — which he thinks is more likely if Cornyn is the nominee in Texas — benefits Trump, too.)
And finally, in some particularly unvarnished comments for the normally understated Thune, he on Monday attributed the “SAVE America Act” pressure to a “paid influencer ecosystem.”
Lee fired back at that comment on Monday night.
The GOP’s enthusiasm problem
Even if there is some truth to Thune’s theory that the campaign hasn’t been totally organic, the demands are increasingly real.
Trump and his allies are building up the voting bill as the difference between Republicans winning and losing the 2026 midterms. (Both because he claims it’s popular and because it would stop alleged Democratic cheating.)
But the potential political problem for the GOP comes if Thune is right that nothing can be done to pass it.
Recent polls from CNN, the Washington Post, Fox News and NBC News all show Democrats are significantly more likely to be passionate about voting in the 2026 midterms — in each poll, by a double-digit margin. CNN’s poll in January showed 66% of Democrat and Democratic-leaning independents said they were “extremely” motivated to vote, compared to just 50% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
President Donald Trump speaks at the Republican Members Issues Conference on March 9 at Trump National Doral Miami in Doral, Florida.
Mark Schiefelbein/AP
Trump is doing a lot that appears to be testing the tolerance of some Republicans. And now he’s risking turning GOP voters off more by building up legislation that might never be signed into law.
If the president doesn’t back down and GOP leaders can’t figure something out, they could have a big problem on their hands — a largely self-inflicted one.
