2026-03-12T16:49:20.764Z / CNN 政治
分析：Aaron Blake
3小时前
发布于 2026年3月12日，美国东部时间下午12:49
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总统唐纳德·特朗普周三降落在马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地后向媒体发表讲话。
Andrew Harnik / 盖蒂图片社
与伊朗的战争现已持续约两周。我们获得了大量关于美国人对这场二十年来美国最重大新军事冲突感受的民调数据。
不过，这仍然是一幅令人困惑的图景——而且这幅图景可能对特朗普政府有利，也可能不利。
但至少就目前而言，对这场战争益处的悲观情绪和不确定性似乎仍是主流结论。
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最引人注目的或许是，美国人似乎认为这场战争让我们变得更不安全。
让我们回顾一下。
支持立场
周四发布的一项新《华盛顿邮报》民调应该会给特朗普政府至少带来一点乐观的理由。
虽然《华盛顿邮报》上周的民调显示，美国人反对特朗普对伊朗的打击，支持率为52%-39%，但这次的民调突然显示，对“美国针对伊朗的军事行动”的态度近乎平分——42%支持，40%反对。
这是第二个表明这场战争并非如此不受欢迎的民调，此外还有福克斯新闻的调查显示，登记选民中支持率与反对率为50%-50%。
但现在就说《华盛顿邮报》的民调意味着战争正变得更受欢迎还为时过早。
首先，上周和本周的问题有所不同。第一个问题是关于特朗普在2月底的最初打击，而第二个问题是关于更广泛的“美国军事行动”，且没有提及特朗普。（在民调中，当你将某个问题与不受欢迎的人（正如总统那样）联系起来时，支持率可能会更低。）
其次，在7家高质量民调机构中，有5家显示美国人以两位数的差距反对这场战争，包括上周的一项CNN民调。
这其中包括两项与《华盛顿邮报》新民调同期进行的民调——奎尼匹亚克大学的调查（53%的登记选民反对，40%支持）和路透社-益普索的民调（43%的美国人不赞成，29%赞成）。
第三，路透社的民调在首次打击后和上周末两次提出了同样的问题。结果几乎没有变化。
美国人认为战争让我们更不安全
在一定程度上，美国人对这场战争仍然持怀疑态度，这并不令人惊讶。
因为当你深入分析整体数据时，美国人似乎看不到这场战争的意义。他们实际上似乎认为这将对国家安全产生净负面影响。
福克斯新闻的民调就是一个例子。它显示选民对战争的整体态度为50-50。
但该调查还询问了特朗普“处理与伊朗关系”是否让美国更安全或更不安全。登记选民以51%-29%的优势表示，这让美国更不安全。（另有19%的人表示没有影响。）
这一发现贯穿了多项民调。
路透社的民调显示，美国人认为这场战争将长期损害美国国家安全，支持率为42%-29%。奎尼匹亚克民调显示，登记选民认为这将使美国“更不安全”，支持率为47%-34%。而CNN民调显示，美国人认为这会让伊朗对美国构成更大威胁，支持率为54%-28%。
即使是对特朗普政府更为有利的新《华盛顿邮报》民调也显示，53%-46%的美国人认为这场战争“不会有助于美国的长期安全”。
战争可能比人们期望的代价更高——无论是美国的生命还是财富；而更糟糕的是，人们认为这将适得其反。但我们现在就处于这种状态。
甚至共和党人似乎也并非普遍相信这场战争最终会改善美国的国家安全。在五项询问类似问题的民调中，平均有19%的共和党人认为这场战争会让美国更不安全，而66%的人认为会让美国更安全。
这在特朗普的基本盘内部仍然是一个很大程度上积极的比例，但并非压倒性的。值得注意的是，即使是一些支持这场战争的共和党人（绝大多数共和党人都支持这场战争），也认为这会让我们更不安全。
这似乎表明对这场战争的支持存在软性。
美国人并未看到迫在眉睫的威胁
伊朗的威胁——尤其是核威胁——长期以来一直萦绕在美国人的心头。
但看来他们并不认为这是一个需要立即开战的威胁。
福克斯民调显示，登记选民以61%-38%的比例同意伊朗对美国构成“真正的国家安全威胁”。这与过去的民调一致。
但当你在这样的问题中加入“迫在眉睫”这个词时，结果就大不相同。奎尼匹亚克民调显示，美国人认为伊朗对美国不存在迫在眉睫的军事威胁的比例为55%-39%。
事情可能会发生变化，因为人们并没有真正关注
如果这些发现中的一些看起来令人困惑或难以调和，那可能有充分的理由。
因为很多人并没有真正关注这个问题，这个问题对他们来说还不是优先事项——至少目前还不是。
更新的路透社民调询问了美国人对伊朗打击行动的了解程度。虽然51%的人表示“非常了解”，但几乎一半的人表示只了解“一点”或更少。
甚至更少有人表示他们非常关心伊朗发生的事情。
事实上，大多数美国人表示他们个人只“有些关心”或更少关心。另有28%的人“相当关心”，只有17%的人“非常关心”。
这预示着公众舆论可能会出现一些波动。而且很大程度上取决于未来几天和几周的发展——包括战争持续的时间以及它给美国带来的代价。
美国人似乎有可能被说服这场战争的合理性。但他们的初始态度并不乐观。
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The biggest Iran polling takeaway: Americans don’t see the point of this war
2026-03-12T16:49:20.764Z / CNN Politics
Analysis by
Aaron Blake
3 hr ago
PUBLISHED Mar 12, 2026, 12:49 PM ET
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President Donald Trump speaks to the press after landing at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on Wednesday.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
The war with Iran is now about two weeks old. And we’re getting a lot of polling data on how Americans feel about the most significant new US military conflict in two decades.
It’s still a confusing picture, though — and one that could break either for or against the Trump administration.
But at least for now, pessimism and uncertainty about the benefits of this war still seem to be the prevailing takeaway.
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Perhaps most strikingly, Americans seem to think this war makes us less safe.
Let’s recap.
Where support stands
A new Washington Post poll released Thursday should provide the Trump administration at least a little reason for optimism.
While the Post’s poll last week showed Americans opposed Trump’s strikes against Iran 52%-39%, this one suddenly showed about an even split on the “U.S. military campaign against Iran” — 42% in support, 40% opposed.
It’s now that second poll to suggest this war isn’t so unpopular, along with a Fox News survey showing an even 50%-50% split among registered voters.
But it’s too soon to say that the Post’s poll means the war is getting more popular.
First, it asked different questions between last week and this week. The first was about Trump’s initial strikes at the end of February, while the second was about the broader “U.S. military campaign” and didn’t mention Trump. (In polling, things can poll worse when you connect them to an unpopular person, as the president is.)
Second, 5 of 7 high-quality pollsters show Americans oppose the war by double digits, including a CNN poll last week.
And that includes two polls conducted in the same period as the Post’s new poll — a Quinnipiac University survey (53% of registered voters opposed, 40% support) and a Reuters-Ipsos poll (43% of Americans disapprove, 29% approve).
Third, that Reuters poll asked the same question both right after the first strikes and over the last weekend. It showed virtually no movement.
Americans think war makes us less safe
And to the extent Americans remain skeptical about the war, that’s not too surprising.
That’s because, when you dig beneath the overall numbers, Americans don’t seem to see the point. They actually seem to think it will be a net-negative for national security.
The Fox poll is a case in point. It shows voters split 50-50 overall on the war.
But the survey also asked whether Trump’s “handling of relations with Iran” has made the United States safer or less safe. By a 51%-29% margin, registered voters said it made the US less safe. (Another 19% said it made no difference.)
This is a thread that runs through multiple polls.
The Reuters poll showed Americans thought the war would harm US national security over the long run, 42%-29%. The Quinnipiac poll showed registered voters said it would make the US “less safe,” 47%-34%. And the CNN poll showed Americans said it would make Iran more of a threat to the US, 54%-28%.
Even the new Washington Post poll, which was somewhat better for the Trump administration, showed Americans said 53%-46% that the war “will not contribute to the long-term security of the United States.”
It’s one thing for a war to be more costly than people would like it to be — both in US lives and treasure; it’s quite another for people to think it will be counterproductive. But that’s where we’re at.
And even Republicans don’t seem universally convinced the war will wind up improving US national security. Across the five polls asking a version of this question, an average of 19% of Republicans said the war would make the US less safe, compared to 66% more safe.
That’s still a largely positive split inside Trump’s base, but it’s not an overwhelming one. And notably, it seems even some Republicans who approve of the war — which is the vast majority of Republicans — also think it will make us less safe.
This would seem to point to the softness of the support for the war.
Americans didn’t see an imminent threat
The threat of Iran — especially a nuclear one — has long lingered large in Americans’ minds.
But it doesn’t appear they saw that as a threat that required going to war right now.
The Fox poll showed registered voters agreed 61%-38% that Iran posed a “real national security threat” to the US. This is in line with past polling.
But when you add the i-word to such questions — “imminent” — the finding is very different. The Quinnipiac poll showed Americans said 55%-39% that Iran did not pose an “imminent military threat to the United States.”
Things could change because people aren’t really tuned in
If some of these findings seem confusing or difficult to reconcile, there may be a good reason.
That’s because many people haven’t really tuned in and the issue isn’t a priority for them — at least not yet.
The newer Reuters poll asked Americans how much they’d heard about the strikes against Iran. While 51% said “a lot,” almost half said only “a little” or less.
And even fewer said they cared a lot about what’s going on in Iran.
In fact, a majority of Americans said they personally cared “some” or less. Another 28% cared “quite a bit,” while just 17% cared “a great deal.”
That’s a recipe for some volatility in public opinion. And much depends on what happens in the days and weeks to come — including how long the war lasts and what it costs the United States.
Americans could seemingly be convinced of the wisdom of this war. But they’re not starting out optimistic.
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