2026年2月13日 / 美国东部时间下午4:00 / CBS新闻
1月的通胀数据为消费者和美国经济带来了令人鼓舞的迹象，消费者价格指数(CPI)低于华尔街预期，降至九个月以来的最低水平。
专家表示，尽管美国人仍在努力应对高物价和生活成本担忧，但近几个月的通胀走势为消费者带来了一些缓解。11月至1月，通胀年平均增长率为2.6%，低于7月至9月的近2.9%。(10月的CPI报告因政府停摆而取消。)
美国海军联邦信用合作社首席经济学家希瑟·朗(Heather Long)在电子邮件中表示：”通胀降至5月以来的最低水平，食品、汽油和租金等关键项目的价格正在降温。这将为中产阶级和中等收入家庭提供急需的缓解。”
以下是今天发布的CPI报告的五个要点：
通胀低于预期
周五的报告显示，1月通胀年率降至2.4%，略低于经济学家预测的2.5%。
波士顿联邦储备银行本月早些时候在分析中表示，这一较低的读数令一些专家感到意外，因为由于季节性因素和年初价格变化更快，1月CPI数据通常比其他月份更高。
当然，尽管通胀正在降温，但物价上涨速度仍快于经济学家和美联储的预期。
金融分析师、Bankrate网站的斯蒂芬·凯茨(Stephen Kates)在CPI数据发布前告诉CBS新闻：”物价上涨速度放缓，这是我们希望看到的，但它们仍在上涨。”
剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的所谓核心通胀年增长率为2.5%，表明物价仍有一定粘性。
杂货店价格有所缓和
杂货店的价格上涨速度正在放缓，为消费者带来了一些缓解。家庭食品(指在杂货店和其他零售商购买、用于家庭消费的食品)价格较去年同期上涨2.1%，低于整体CPI增速。
与去年同期相比，上月价格下降的杂货商品包括奶酪、新鲜水果和鸡蛋，其中鸡蛋价格下降34%。当然，一些食品价格仍在大幅上涨，包括碎牛肉和烘焙咖啡，1月份这两种商品的价格较去年同期均上涨17%。
餐馆和其他餐饮场所的价格上月较去年同期上涨4%，超过了整体通胀率。
加油站价格下降
安永-帕台农集团(EY-Parthenon)高级经济学家莉迪娅·布苏尔(Lydia Boussour)在电子邮件中表示，周五报告中的一个亮点是能源价格显著放缓，有助于降低整体通胀读数。
在能源类别中，汽油价格下降7.5%。
相比之下，电力价格继续大幅上涨，同比上涨6.3%。这与电力需求增加有关，部分原因是数据中心为人工智能服务的普及提供动力，这推高了消费者的公用事业账单。这些价格压力可能会持续存在。美国能源信息署预测，2026年居民电价将上涨近4%。
住房成本增速放缓
CPI中归类为”住房”的住房成本在1月有所放缓。该类别价格较去年同期上涨3%，低于上月的3.2%。
需要注意的是：专家表示，近几个月住房成本同比数据有所放缓，这可能是由于2025年秋季政府停摆的持续影响，干扰了联邦数据收集。
凯茨解释说：”美国劳工统计局没有10月的数据，他们不得不估算他们认为的数字，这很可能导致住房数据出现人为的偏低。”他补充说，他预计数据将在3月或4月左右恢复正常。
美联储可能推迟3月降息
许多专家认为，尽管今天的CPI报告显示通胀正接近美联储2%的年度目标，但美联储可能会在3月会议上维持基准利率不变。
牛津经济研究院首席经济学家伯纳德·亚罗斯(Bernard Yaros)在周五的报告中指出，虽然1月的CPI数据”对美联储来说是个好消息”，但可能仍存在对去年秋季政府停摆导致的数据失真的担忧。
与此同时，其他通胀指标表明，美联储此时宣布通胀”胜利”还为时过早。尽管最新的CPI数据显示核心通胀正在减弱，但美联储青睐的通胀指标——个人消费支出(PCE)，另一个衡量消费者支出的指标——仍停留在近3%，远高于美联储2%的年度目标。
亚罗斯补充说，美联储可能还会关注劳动力市场稳定的迹象。牛津经济研究院预测，美联储将在2026年6月和9月的会议上各降息一次。
由艾米·皮奇(Aimee Picchi)编辑
The January CPI report is the best inflation news we’ve had in months. Here’s why.
February 13, 2026 / 4:00 PM EST / CBS News
The January inflation reading offered encouraging signs for consumers and the U.S. economy, with the Consumer Price Index coming in below Wall Street expectations and falling to its lowest level in nine months.
Although Americans continue to grapple with elevated prices and cost-of-living concerns, the trajectory of inflation in recent months offers some relief for consumers, experts said. Inflation rose at an average annual rate of 2.6% from November through January — down from nearly 2.9% from July through September. (October’s CPI report was canceled due to the government shutdown.)
“Inflation fell to the lowest level since May, and key items such as food, gas and rent are cooling off,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in an email. “This will provide much-needed relief for middle-class and moderate-income families.”
Here are five takeaways from today’s CPI report, which tracks changes in prices of goods and services across the U.S.
Inflation came in cooler than expected
Friday’s report showed that inflation in January dipped to 2.4% on an annual basis, a shade below economists’ forecasts of 2.5%.
The softer reading surprised some experts because January CPI data often comes in hotter than other months due to seasonal factors and more rapid price changes at the start of the year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston said in an analysis earlier this month.
To be sure, while inflation is cooling, prices continue to rise faster than economists and the Federal Reserve would like.
1/1 Skip Ad Continue watching after the ad
“They’re going up at a slower pace, and that’s what we want, but they’re still going up,” Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate, told CBS News ahead of the CPI release.
So-called core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.5% year over year, a sign that prices remain somewhat sticky.
Some grocery costs eased
Price hikes at the grocery store are easing, providing some relief for consumers. Food at home — a category that tracks food bought at grocery stores and other retailers for consumption at home — rose 2.1% from a year earlier, cooler than the overall CPI rate.
Grocery items that dropped in price last month compared with a year ago include cheese, fresh fruit and eggs, with the latter declining 34%. To be sure, some foods are still seeing significant price hikes, including ground beef and roasted coffee, with the cost of both items up 17% in January from a year ago.
Prices at restaurants and other eateries rose 4% last month from a year earlier, exceeding the overall inflation rate.
Lower prices at the pump
One standout from Friday’s report was energy prices, which showed a notable deceleration and helped lower the overall inflation reading, EY-Parthenon senior economist Lydia Boussour said in an email.
Within the energy category, gasoline prices dipped 7.5%.
By contrast, electricity prices continue to climb sharply, rising 6.3% year-over-year. That comes amid an increase in electricity demand, partly from data centers powering the spread of AI services, that has driven up consumers’ utility bills. Those price pressures are likely to persist. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts residential electricity prices will rise nearly 4% in 2026.
Housing costs slowed
Housing costs, categorized as “shelter” in the CPI, slowed in January. The category rose 3% from a year earlier, down from 3.2% in the prior month.
One caveat: Experts say that the year-over-year shelter figures have been softer in recent months, likely due to the lingering effects of the government shutdown in fall 2025, which disrupted federal data collection.
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not have data from October, and they had to impute what they think it was going to be, and that has very likely created some artificially low numbers on housing,” Kates explained, adding that he expects numbers to normalize around March or April.
Fed likely to hold off on March rate cut
Many experts think the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its March meeting, despite today’s CPI report showing inflation edging closer to the central bank’s goal of a 2% annual rate.
While January’s CPI data will be “welcome news for the Federal Reserve,” there may be concerns about some data distortions remaining from last fall’s government shutdown, noted Bernard Yaros, lead economist at Oxford Economics, in a Friday report.
Meanwhile, other inflation gauges suggest it’s too early for the central bank to declare victory. Although the latest CPI numbers show that core inflation is fading, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — Personal Consumption Expenditures, another measure of consumer spending — remains stuck at nearly 3%, well above the central bank’s 2% annual target.
The Fed will also likely be monitoring the labor market for signs of stabilization, Yaros added. Oxford is forecasting two rate cuts in 2026, at the Fed’s June and September meetings.
Edited by Aimee Picchi
