发布时间：2026年3月4日，美国东部时间上午12:00 | 作者：肖恩·林加斯、凯莉·阿特伍德、伊莎贝尔·胡尔舒迪安
与伊朗开战四天后，美国在海湾地区的至少一个盟友已经因防御伊朗导弹和无人机袭击而急需关键拦截弹，两名消息人士向美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）透露。
“还没到恐慌的地步，但越早拿到这些拦截弹越好，”一位地区消息人士向CNN表示，其政府正请求美国提供更多拦截弹。
这反映了该地区（包括以色列）对防御伊朗袭击所需武器储备的担忧，尤其是在唐纳德·特朗普总统提出延长军事行动时间线的情况下。特朗普周一在白宫发表讲话时称，这场战争最初“预计”持续“四到五周”，但补充说美军有能力“远超这个时间”。
一位卡塔尔消息人士向CNN透露，卡塔尔目前有足够的拦截弹维持较长时间，但仍与美军中央司令部保持联系，以防需要进一步请求支援，不过未具体说明“较长时间”的定义。
据多位熟悉内情的消息人士称，战争爆发前，美军参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军和其他军事领导人就警告特朗普，长期军事行动可能会影响美国武器储备——尤其是那些支持以色列和乌克兰的武器。
据一位知情人士透露，过去几天，美国一直在“消耗”大量远程精确制导弹药。
随着战争升级，这已成为一个数量问题：美国及其地区盟友需要多少拦截弹才能持续击落伊朗导弹和无人机？是否需要从为太平洋地区美军预留的其他库存中重新调配？美国的竞争对手如中国正密切关注这一情况。
“每次拦截都需要数百小时的训练、战备状态和技术的整合，才能按设计要求发挥作用，”凯恩周一在关于美国-以色列对伊朗军事行动的新闻发布会上表示。
当天晚些时候，国务卿马尔科·卢比奥称，“据估计，伊朗每月生产超过100枚此类导弹，而我们每月只能制造6到7枚拦截弹。”他补充说，摧毁伊朗的导弹能力是美军行动的目标。
特朗普周一晚间在Truth Social平台上发文回应对弹药储备减少的担忧，称美军“中高等级弹药储备从未如此充足或优质”，并强调美国拥有“几乎无限的此类武器供应”。
“仅靠这些储备，战争可以‘无限期’且非常成功地持续下去，”特朗普继续说道，但未具体说明指的是哪些弹药。
“在最高端武器方面，我们储备充足，但尚未达到理想水平，”特朗普批评拜登政府“向乌克兰输送了过多高端武器”以支持其抵御俄罗斯的攻击。拜登政府官员常以担心耗尽美国库存为由，最初犹豫是否向乌克兰提供某些远程防空和打击弹药。
特朗普周二接受《政客》采访时表示：“国防公司正快速生产我们所需的各种装备，他们正处于紧急订单状态。”
美军中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀海军上将周二晚间发布视频声明称，美军已使用超过2000枚弹药打击了近2000个伊朗目标。
“我们严重削弱了伊朗的防空能力，摧毁了数百枚伊朗弹道导弹、发射装置和无人机，”库珀补充道。他承认伊朗军方在反击中发射了超过500枚弹道导弹和2000多架无人机。
“我们看到伊朗打击我们及其盟友的能力正在下降，而我们的战斗力却在增强，”库珀声称。
国会山方面，民主党议员对已使用的弹药数量及其对美国中东及其他地区国防的影响日益担忧。
“伊朗确实有能力制造大量Shahed无人机、弹道导弹（中短程），并且库存巨大，”亚利桑那州民主党参议员马克·凯利表示，“因此，这最终会成为一个补给问题——如何重新供应防空弹药？这些弹药从哪里来？”
民主党人认为，持续的冲突可能迫使政府更早向国会寻求补充资金，以解决弹药消耗问题。
海湾盟友的防御物资
目前的担忧焦点是海湾盟友而非美国的防御武器库存。
战争初期，巴林、卡塔尔、阿联酋和沙特等海湾国家几乎拦截了所有伊朗发射的导弹和无人机，但仍有部分漏网。一枚伊朗无人机击中了巴林的一栋高层住宅楼，引发爆炸；阿联酋两家亚马逊云服务数据中心也遭到伊朗无人机袭击受损。
彭博经济研究公司的国防负责人贝卡·瓦瑟指出，弹药短缺可能迫使海湾国家改变战术，最终可能需要“更有选择性地拦截目标”，例如重点打击无人机群或短程弹道导弹。
英国高级官员本周向CNN透露，英国正从塞浦路斯和卡塔尔派遣飞机拦截无人机和导弹。拦截弹、发射装置和拦截器的库存将是决定这场战争持续时间的关键因素。
据CNN此前报道，即使是相对短暂的战争也会显著消耗美国导弹库存：去年6月以色列与伊朗12天冲突中，美军消耗了约四分之一的高端“末段高空区域防御系统（THAAD）”拦截弹，其拦截速度远超生产速度。THAAD是美国制造的机动反导系统，每辆发射车配备8枚拦截弹。
华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心导弹防御项目估计，2025年美军发射了其预期库存中高达20%的标准导弹-3（SM-3）拦截弹，以及20%-50%的THAAD导弹。报告补充称，THAAD的消耗速度“令人担忧”，因为交付数据显示美军发射速度远超生产增速。
“超前准备”还是“为时已晚”？
在周末对伊朗发动袭击前，特朗普政府对美国弹药库存限制的最大担忧之一来自乌克兰。去年7月，国防部长彼得·赫格斯暂停了对乌克兰的武器运输，当时美国正在审查军事援助。赫格斯是根据国防部政策副部长埃尔布里奇·科尔比的备忘录行事，科尔比此前曾推动保留更多库存以应对未来与中国的战争。
科尔比周二在国会听证会上回应关于弹药储备消耗的担忧时称：“我认为我们需要努力推动国防工业复合体，但不要误解——我们正领先于问题本身。”
然而，美国传统基金会的一项1月份研究发现，“初始库存”的弹药将在与中国的高强度冲突开始后25天内耗尽。报告称：“美军几乎肯定会在第30天左右在后勤退化状态下进入主要战斗阶段，最终因平台损失、燃料瓶颈和弹药需求激增而导致系统性作战失败。”
不过，美军在与伊朗的冲突中拥有空中优势，“因此不需要大量高端远程武器，”前轰炸机飞行员、米切尔航空航天研究所未来概念与能力评估主任马克·冈辛格上校表示。
“我们可以使用JDAM（联合直接攻击弹药）从较近的距离打击目标，”冈辛格解释道，“我们拥有数万枚JDAM和小直径炸弹的库存——规模非常大。这些精确制导弹药射程可达40英里。”
冈辛格指出，防空弹药的消耗更令人担忧，因为它们“数十年来一直资源不足”。“我们有足够的吗？我认为有，但我更担心爱国者导弹、THAAD等防空系统的库存。”他补充说，美军持续的进攻行动可以限制伊朗导弹发射能力，从而减少防空弹药的消耗压力。
美军及其盟友还可以通过使用低成本替代品击落伊朗无人机来节省高端防空弹药。
拜登政府时期的空军部长弗兰克·肯德尔表示，目前对美军弹药储备的担忧尚不严重。“我们可以调整武器使用策略，确保太平洋地区的关键武器库存充足，”肯德尔向CNN表示，“五角大楼会监控所有情况，并根据其他地区的需求限制弹药使用。”
但肯德尔警告，如果战争拖延或美军地面部队介入（特朗普周一未排除这种可能性），弹药短缺问题可能会加剧。
“这些高端复杂武器的库存本就有限，过度消耗将增加其他战区的风险，”肯德尔补充道。
美国近年来对伊朗及胡塞武装的军事行动已消耗大量弹药，“重建库存以应对全球行动消耗的努力才刚刚开始，”美国企业研究所高级研究员麦肯齐·伊格尔表示，“会有一些快速见效的措施，但总体而言，要扭转弹药消耗的趋势并实现快速补充，需要1-3年时间。”
CNN记者娜塔莎·伯特兰、劳伦·福克斯和扎卡里·科恩对此报道有贡献。
https://www.cnn.com/world/video/bahrain-iran-drone-strike-high-rise-building-digvid
The Iran war’s troubling missile math
Published Mar 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET | By Sean Lyngaas, Kylie Atwood, Isabelle Khurshudyan
Four days into war with Iran, at least one of the United States’ Gulf allies is already running low on crucial interceptor munitions used to defend against Iranian missile and drone attacks, two sources told CNN.
“It’s not panic yet, but the sooner they get here the better,” one regional source told CNN, referring to a request their government made to the US for more interceptors.
That mirrors concern across the region, including in Israel, about the stockpile of weapons needed to defend against Iranian attacks, especially as President Donald Trump has floated an extended timeline for the campaign. Speaking at the White House on Monday, Trump said the war was initially “projected” to last “four to five weeks” but added the US military has the “capability to go far longer than that.”
Qatar has enough interceptors for a long period of time but is still in touch with the US military’s Central Command in case the Qataris need to ask for more interceptors, a Qatari source told CNN, declining to specify what that time period was.
Before the war began, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders warned Trump that a protracted military campaign could impact US weapons stockpiles – particularly those that support Israel and Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
The US has been “burning” through long-range precision-guided missiles over the last several days, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Now that the war is expanding, it’s a numbers game: How many interceptors will the US and its regional allies need to continuously shoot down Iranian missiles and how many, if any, of those weapons will need to be redirected from other stockpiles earmarked for US forces in the Pacific? US rivals like China will be watching closely.
“Each intercept represents hundreds of hours of training, readiness, and technology all coming together to work as designed,” Caine said at a press briefing on Monday on the US-Israel military operation against Iran.
Later that day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Iran is “producing, by some estimates, over 100 of these missiles a month. Compare that to the six or seven interceptors that can be built a month.” He added that destroying Iran’s missile capacity is the goal of the US campaign.
In a post on Truth Social Monday night, Trump appeared to respond to concerns over dwindling stockpiles. He wrote that US munitions stockpiles “at the medium and upper medium grade” have “never been higher or better,” adding that the US has a “virtually unlimited supply of these weapons.”
“Wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies,” Trump continued. He didn’t specify exactly which munitions he was referring to.
“At the highest end, we have a good supply, but are not where we want to be,” Trump said. He then criticized President Joe Biden for “giving” away “so much of the high end” to Ukraine in support of the country’s defense against Russian attacks. Biden administration officials often cited concern over depleting US stockpiles as a reason for their initial hesitancy in providing Ukraine with certain long-range air defense and strike munitions.
Trump told Politico in an interview Tuesday that “The defense companies are on a rapid tear to build the various things we need. They’re under emergency orders.”
Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, released a video statement on Tuesday evening, saying in part that the US military had struck nearly 2,000 Iranian targets with more than 2,000 munitions.
“We have severely degraded Iran’s air defenses and destroyed hundreds of Iran’s ballistic missiles, launchers and drones,” Cooper added.
He acknowledged that the Iranian military had launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones in response to the US and Israeli attacks.
“We are seeing Iran’s ability to hit us and our partners is declining, while our combat power, on the other hand, is building,” Cooper claimed.
On Capitol Hill, Democrats are growing increasingly uneasy about the amount of munitions that have already been used and what it could mean for US defense in the Middle East and beyond.
“The Iranians do have the ability to make a lot of Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, medium range, short range and they’ve got a huge stockpile,” said Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. “So at some point … this becomes a math problem and how can we resupply air defense munitions. Where are they going to come from?”
Democrats believe the ongoing conflict raises the stakes that sooner rather than later, the administration will need to come to Congress to ask for supplemental funding.
Defensive supplies for Gulf allies
The immediate concern is the stock of defensive weapons held by Gulf allies, not the US.
In the war’s early days, Gulf countries such as Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have in general tried to shoot down every missile or drone from Iran. Still, some have gotten through. An Iranian drone struck a high-rise residential building in Bahrain, causing a fiery explosion. Other Iranian drone strikes damaged two Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE.
The munitions crunch might force a change in tactics for Gulf countries, according to Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics, who said that eventually they may have to become “more selective” in what they target, potentially focusing on shooting down things like large swarms of drones or short-range ballistic missiles.
The potential strain on Gulf countries’ defenses is prompting other US allies to step in.
The UK is flying aircraft from Cyprus and Qatar to intercept drones and missiles, a senior British official told CNN this week. The stock of missiles, launchers and interceptors will be a critical factor determining the length of this war, the official added.
Even a relatively short war can significantly deplete the American missile supplies: The US blew through about a quarter of its supply of high-end Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile interceptors during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran last June, thwarting attacks at a rate that vastly outpaces production, CNN previously reported. The American-made THAAD mobile antimissile system launches from a vehicle, with eight interceptors per launcher vehicle.
The Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, estimated that in 2025, the US fired up to 20% of the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors it was expected to have on hand, and between 20% to 50% of THAAD missiles.
The report added that THAAD expenditures were “concerning,” as delivery data suggests that the US is firing THAAD missiles at a higher rate without increasing production to match.
‘Ahead of the problem’
Before launching the attack on Iran over the weekend, one of the Trump administration’s biggest reckonings with the limits of US munition stockpiles involved Ukraine. Last July, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth paused a weapons shipment to Ukraine amid a US review of military aid. Hegseth was acting on a memo from Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, who has previously pushed to preserve more of the US stockpiles for a potential future war with China.
Colby, during a hearing with lawmakers Tuesday, responded to concerns about depleting weapons stockpiles for other potential conflicts. “I think we need to work hard on the defense-industrial complex, but nobody should get the wrong impression – we’re ahead of the problem,” Colby said.
Any potential sustained US war with China faces daunting math. A study released in January by the Heritage Foundation, another think tank, found that the “initial stock” of US munitions would run out within 25 days of a high-intensity conflict with China.
“U.S. forces will almost certainly be forced to enter the main phase of combat around Day 30 in a logistically degraded state, ultimately leading to systemic operational failure as platform losses, fuel bottlenecks, and munitions demand converge,” the report says.
But now that the US has air superiority in its conflict with Iran, “There’s not quite such a need for the higher end, very high-end long-range standoff weapons,” said retired Col. Mark Gunzinger, the director of future concepts and capability assessments at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies think tank and a former bomber pilot.
“We can use JDAMs, Joint Direct Attack Munitions, against targets from much shorter ranges,” Gunzinger said. “We have a much, much larger stockpile – tens of thousands certainly – of JDAMs and small diameter bombs.” The precision-guided munitions have a range of up to 40 miles.
Gunzinger said there was greater concern for air-defense munitions running low because they have been “under-resourced for decades.”
“Do we have enough? I think we do,” Gunzinger said of the conflict with Iran. “But I would be more concerned with some of our inventories of Patriot missiles, THAADs and others.”
Gunzinger added that ongoing offensive operations by the US could continue to limit Iran’s ability to fire its own missiles, and therefore, reduce the tax on air defense munitions.
The US and its allies could also save some of their more high-end air defense munitions by taking down Iranian drones with less expensive alternatives, Gunzinger said.
Frank Kendall, the Air Force secretary under Biden, said that, in general, he wasn’t yet worried about depleting US munitions in the current conflict with Iran.
“We can throttle which weapons we use to try to keep the ones that are more critical to us in the Pacific in suitable quantities,” Kendall told CNN. “The Pentagon will monitor all that and they’ll limit what gets used because of other considerations.”
But Kendall said concerns about US munitions could mount if the war drags on or involves American troops on the ground – an option that Trump wouldn’t rule out on Monday.
Longer-range precision weapons can be effective in a war like the one with Iran, Kendall said.
“These are the more expensive sophisticated weapons we don’t have as large a stockpile of,” he added. “Drawing these down substantially would increase risk in other theaters.”
The current conflict follows American military operations against the Houthis and Iran last year. Taken together, the bombing campaigns are taking a toll on the arsenal of US munitions.
The effort to build up supplies of interceptors for air defenses – known in Pentagon speak as “US magazine depth” – is “a nascent effort only just now getting underway,” said Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “There will be a few quick wins, but for the most part, the effort to arrest the overall decline in munitions and rebuild stocks faster than they’re being expended in global operations will take one to three years.”
CNN’s Natasha Bertrand, Lauren Fox and Zachary Cohen contributed to this report.
https://www.cnn.com/world/video/bahrain-iran-drone-strike-high-rise-building-digvid
作者：保罗·施泰因豪泽、亚历克斯·米勒
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