作者：艾伦·布雷克 | 4分钟前 | 发布于 2026年3月4日，美国东部时间凌晨2:33
2026年3月3日，得克萨斯州奥斯汀，得克萨斯州参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉利科（D-TX）在选举夜向支持者发表讲话。
约翰·摩尔/盖蒂图片社
周二，2026年中期选举的首个初选日，三个州的选民前往投票站投票，其中最大的看点是得克萨斯州的两场参议院初选，这两场初选似乎都对民主党巩固多数席位的希望非常有利。
州议员詹姆斯·塔拉利科在民主党初选中击败美国众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特，为民主党选出了一位看起来最具竞争力的候选人。而身负争议的得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿则迫使共和党参议员约翰·科宁进入了决选。
除了得克萨斯州，周二还举行了北卡罗来纳州和阿肯色州的初选。
以下是这些竞选以及周二其他初选中的一些要点分析。
克罗克特错失机会
2026年3月3日，星期二，在达拉斯的初选观察派对上，得克萨斯州民主党参议员候选人、众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特发表讲话。托尼·古铁雷斯/美联社
得克萨斯州民主党参议院初选的主要故事，很大程度上是克罗克特错失了机会。
这位国会议员在参选时备受关注，也有一些实实在在的固有优势。但她的竞选活动似乎从未做过那些补充这些优势所需的传统工作——也就是所谓的基础工作。
参议院：得克萨斯州
| 候选人 | 百分比 | 票数 |
| — | — | — |
| 詹姆斯·塔拉利科 民主党 | 53.2% | 1,078,129 领先155,807票 |
| 贾斯敏·克罗克特 民主党 | 45.5% | 922,322 |
| 艾哈迈德·哈桑 民主党 | 1.3% | 26,573 |
估计 83% 选票已统计
刚刚更新
预计获胜者
她三个月前才在最后时刻（11小时前）参加了初选。她的竞选广告非常少。（事实上，得克萨斯州共和党州长格雷格·雅培为她花费了大量资金，因为他试图提高她的候选资格，希望以此打击民主党人。）
她的信息有时似乎更侧重于流程和不满，而不是谈论她作为参议员会做什么。在竞选的最后几天，她的工作人员甚至让《大西洋月刊》的一名记者离开活动现场。
这些都表明她还没有准备好应对重要场合，而这一点在初选日得到了体现。尽管大多数民调显示她领先，但从早期情况来看，这显然是塔拉利科的夜晚。
一种看法是，民主党初选选民做出了更务实的选择，而不是选择那位“煽动者”。但另一方面——这位“煽动者”的竞选活动确实没有竞争力。
得克萨斯州参议院可能将迎来一场残酷的12周决选
得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿（左）和参议员约翰·科宁在周二各自的初选夜观察活动中。美联社/盖蒂图片社
共和党初选的结果大体符合预期，科宁和帕克斯顿将进入决选，决选将于5月26日举行。
在正常情况下，你会认为科宁在决选中明显处于劣势。通常，这些初选中的选民会在支持现任议员和反对现任议员之间做出选择。而多数初选选民选择了反对现任议员。
但帕克斯顿的“包袱”——包括过去的起诉和他妻子关于不忠的指控——表明，对一些支持众议员韦斯利·亨特的选民来说，投票支持他可能是一个障碍。亨特在初选中排名第三，这些选民可能会投票给科宁，或者在决选中弃权。
参议院：得克萨斯州
| 候选人 | 百分比 | 票数 |
| — | — | — |
| 约翰·科宁* 共和党 | 42.0% | 846,975 领先22,238票 |
| 肯·帕克斯顿 共和党 | 40.9% | 824,737 |
| 韦斯利·亨特 共和党 | 13.2% | 265,847 |
估计 85% 选票已统计
刚刚更新
现任议员
进入决选
除此之外，塔拉利科在民主党初选中的胜利可能会让共和党人更倾向于推出更具竞争力的候选人，而看起来这位候选人就是科宁。人们预计会有大量讨论，探讨曾称赞所有三位候选人的唐纳德·特朗普总统是否会以保住席位为名，在决选中支持科宁而非帕克斯顿。
考虑到帕克斯顿比科宁更符合“特朗普主义”（MAGA），这对特朗普来说可能是一个难以接受的决定。但特朗普也会担心保住共和党的国会多数席位。
（美国有线电视新闻网的达娜·巴什周二晚上在节目中报道称，特朗普“很可能”会从观望状态中走出来，在决选中表态支持。）
塔拉利科无论面对哪一位共和党人都会处于劣势，而且自1994年以来，民主党在得克萨斯州的任何州级选举中都没有获胜。但让这场竞选进入决选对他们的多数席位计算来说将是巨大的进展。
目前可以明确的是，一场耗资巨大且日益激烈的共和党竞选活动将延长12周。这对共和党人来说并非最优选择。
特德·克鲁兹助力击败一名共和党现任议员
2025年12月15日，参议员特德·克鲁兹在美国国会大厦举行新闻发布会。希瑟·迪尔/盖蒂图片社
说到那些没有得到党内关键人物支持的现任议员，众议员丹·克伦肖就遭到了特朗普、雅培和参议员特德·克鲁兹的冷遇。现在他成了“跛脚鸭”议员。
克伦肖输给了州议员史蒂夫·托特。而且差距似乎相当明显。
众议院2区：得克萨斯州
| 候选人 | 百分比 | 票数 |
| — | — | — |
| 史蒂夫·托特 共和党 | 57.3% | 31,964 领先10,045票 |
| 丹·克伦肖* 共和党 | 39.3% | 21,919 |
| 马丁·埃特沃普 共和党 | 1.8% | 1,024 |
| N.李·普伦布 共和党 | 1.5% | 860 |
估计 78% 选票已统计
刚刚更新
预计获胜者
现任议员
克鲁兹在击败克伦肖的过程中扮演了特别重要的角色，甚至制作了一条支持托特的广告——对于一位现任参议员来说，这是一个非常不寻常的举动。
至于为什么会发生这种情况？克伦肖无疑因为多年来偶尔表现出对特朗普的独立性，而让一些“MAGA运动”人士感到不满。但同样重要的是，得克萨斯州新的选区划分对他不利，新的选区将他划入了更多有利于托特的地区。
其他现任议员遭遇危机
2024年2月14日，丹·克伦肖在华盛顿的美国国会大厦发表讲话。凯文·迪特施/盖蒂图片社
克伦肖是现任议员中表现最差的，而科宁显然也遇到了一些麻烦。
但他们并不是周二唯一遭遇危机的现任议员。
截至周二深夜，长期任职的民主党众议员阿尔·格林与最近赢得休斯顿地区席位特别选举的众议员克里斯蒂安·梅内菲之间展开了一场激烈的角逐。（两人在新的选区划分下互相竞争。）
在北卡罗来纳州，民主党众议员瓦莱丽·富西与达勒姆县专员尼达·阿拉姆展开了激烈的竞争。阿拉姆是一位资金充足的挑战者，在一个非常倾向民主党的选区中向富西的左侧发起挑战。
众议院18区：得克萨斯州
| 候选人 | 百分比 | 票数 |
| — | — | — |
| 克里斯蒂安·梅内菲* 民主党 | 46.0% | 31,280 领先305票 |
| 阿尔·格林* 民主党 | 45.6% | 30,975 |
估计 67% 选票已统计
刚刚更新
现任议员
众议院4区：北卡罗来纳州
| 候选人 | 百分比 | 票数 |
| — | — | — |
| 瓦莱丽·富西* 民主党 | 49.2% | 61,537 领先1,202票 |
| 尼达·阿拉姆 民主党 | 48.2% | 60,335 |
| 玛丽·帕特森 民主党 | 2.6% | 3,253 |
估计 99% 选票已统计
刚刚更新
现任议员
托尼·冈萨雷斯的风波持续
2024年7月22日，托尼·冈萨雷斯议员在华盛顿特区美国国会大厦外接受媒体采访。格雷姆·斯隆/西帕美国/美联社/档案
但对一位现任议员来说，进入决选实际上是一个不错的结果。
得克萨斯州共和党众议员托尼·冈萨雷斯与布兰登·埃雷拉进行了一场重赛。2024年初选时，冈萨雷斯以微弱优势击败了埃雷拉。而最近，冈萨雷斯曝出一系列关于他与一名工作人员有染，该工作人员后来自杀身亡的残酷披露。这些消息甚至让一些共和党人呼吁他辞职。
众议院23区：得克萨斯州
| 候选人 | 百分比 | 票数 |
| — | — | — |
| 布兰登·埃雷拉 共和党 | 43.4% | 23,548 领先905票 |
| 托尼·冈萨雷斯* 共和党 | 41.7% | 22,643 |
估计 87% 选票已统计
刚刚更新
现任议员
进入决选
他仍然有可能在决选中失利。但就目前而言，他有理由不辞职，而是继续战斗。
这对共和党人来说可能是个好消息，因为这意味着他们可能不会看到本已微弱的多数席位进一步缩减。但这也可能是个坏消息，因为他们必须继续处理这个非常棘手的局面。
野心勃勃的众议院议员表现不佳
2026年1月14日，众议员奇普·罗伊在华盛顿特区国会大厦的新闻发布会上发言。内森·霍华德/路透社
部分原因是对众议院立法现状的失望，有大量议员（事实上超过24人）正在竞选州级职位。
他们开局并不顺利。
尽管克罗克特和亨特都在参议院初选中失利，但共和党众议员奇普·罗伊在得克萨斯州总检察长共和党初选中以相当大的差距屈居第二。
他原本有望与州参议员梅斯·米德尔顿进入决选，但罗伊看起来明显处于劣势。
总检察长：得克萨斯州
| 候选人 | 百分比 | 票数 |
| — | — | — |
| 梅斯·米德尔顿 共和党 | 39.4% | 758,127 领先149,285票 |
| 奇普·罗伊 共和党 | 31.6% | 608,842 |
估计 84% 选票已统计
刚刚更新
进入决选
Takeaways from the Texas and North Carolina primaries
Analysis by Aaron Blake | 4 min ago | PUBLISHED Mar 4, 2026, 2:33 AM ET
Texas Senate candidate James Talarico (D-TX) addresses supporters on election night on March 03, 2026 in Austin, Texas.
John Moore/Getty Images
Voters in three states headed to the polls for the first primary day of the 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, with the big story being a pair of Texas Senate primaries that both seemed to break quite well for Democrats’ majority hopes.
State Rep. James Talarico’s win over US Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary gave Democrats what appears to be their most electable nominee, while baggage-laden Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton forced a runoff with GOP Sen. John Cornyn.
Primaries were held Tuesday not just in Texas but also in North Carolina and Arkansas.
Below are some takeaways from those races and other primaries on Tuesday.
Crockett misses her opportunity
Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks during a primary election watch party Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Tony Gutierrez/AP
The story of the Texas Democratic Senate primary wound up being largely about a missed opportunity for Crockett.
The congresswoman came into the race with buzz around her name and some real built-in advantages. But her campaign never seemed to do the kinds of traditional things – the blocking and tackling – that you need to do to complement that.
Senate: Texas
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT | VOTES |
| — | — | — |
| James Talarico Democratic | 53.2% | 1,078,129 155,807 ahead |
| Jasmine Crockett Democratic | 45.5% | 922,322 |
| Ahmad Hassan Democratic | 1.3% | 26,573 |
Est.
83%
votes in
Updated just now
Projected Winner
She got in the primary at the 11th hour just three months ago. Her campaign advertising was scant. (In fact, Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott accounted for a large share of the money spent on her behalf as he sought to elevate her candidacy in hopes of hurting Democrats.)
Her message at times seemed to be more focused on process and grievances rather than talking about what she would do as a senator. In the closing days of the campaign, her staff made a reporter from The Atlantic leave an event.
None of it suggested she was ready for primetime, and that showed on primary day. Despite most of the polling having shown her leading, it was pretty clear early on that this was Talarico’s night.
One way to look at that is that Democratic primary voters made a more pragmatic choice rather than picking the firebrand. But also — the firebrand’s campaign just didn’t stack up.
A potentially brutal 12-week Texas Senate runoff looms
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, left, and Sen. John Cornyn at their respective primary election night watch events on Tuesday.
AP/Getty Images
The GOP primary went about as expected, with Cornyn and Paxton headed for a runoff that will conclude on May 26.
Under normal circumstances, you’d say Cornyn is the clear underdog in the runoff. Usually these primaries break down between the incumbent vote and the anti-incumbent vote. And a majority of primary voters voted against the incumbent.
But Paxton’s baggage — including a past indictment and allegations of infidelity from his wife — suggests voting for him could be a hurdle for some Rep. Wesley Hunt supporters, who could either vote for Cornyn or sit out the runoff after Hunt finished third.
Senate: Texas
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT | VOTES |
| — | — | — |
| John Cornyn* Republican | 42.0% | 846,975 22,238 ahead |
| Ken Paxton Republican | 40.9% | 824,737 |
| Wesley Hunt Republican | 13.2% | 265,847 |
Est.
85%
votes in
Updated just now
Incumbent
Advances to runoff
And beyond that, Talarico’s win in the Democratic primary could put a premium on Republicans putting forward the more electable candidate, which would seem to be Cornyn. Expect to see plenty of talk about whether President Donald Trump, who praised all three candidates in the primary, might join the national GOP in picking Cornyn over Paxton in the name of holding the seat.
That might be a tough pill for Trump to swallow, given Paxton is more MAGA than Cornyn. But Trump will also be concerned about keeping the GOP’s congressional majorities.
(CNN’s Dana Bash reported on the air Tuesday night that it was “very likely” Trump would come off the sidelines and endorse in the runoff.)
Talarico would be the underdog against either Republican, and Democrats haven’t won any statewide race in Texas since 1994. But putting this one in play would be huge for their majority math.
What’s clear for now is that a massively expensive and increasingly ugly GOP campaign just got extended for 12 weeks. And that’s suboptimal for Republicans.
Ted Cruz helps take down an incumbent Republican
Sen. Ted Cruz holds a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on December 15, 2025 .
Heather Diehl/Getty Images
Speaking of incumbents not getting love from key figures in their national party, Rep. Dan Crenshaw got the cold shoulder from Trump, Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz. Now he’s a lame duck.
Crenshaw lost to state Rep. Steve Toth. And it doesn’t appear to have been particularly close.
House 2: Texas
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT | VOTES |
| — | — | — |
| Steve Toth Republican | 57.3% | 31,964 10,045 ahead |
| Dan Crenshaw* Republican | 39.3% | 21,919 |
| Martin Etwop Republican | 1.8% | 1,024 |
| N. Lee Plumb Republican | 1.5% | 860 |
Est.
78%
votes in
Updated 2:18 a.m. ET, Mar. 4
Projected Winner
Incumbent
Cruz played an especially large role in taking down Crenshaw, including even cutting an ad supporting Toth – a highly unusual move for an incumbent senator.
As for why it happened? Crenshaw undoubtedly rubbed some of the MAGA movement the wrong way by occasionally showing some independence from Trump over the years. But it’s also true that Texas’s new map worked against him by moving in lots of Toth-friendly territory.
Other incumbents get scares
Rep. Dan Crenshaw speaks at a the US Capitol on February 14, 2024.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Crenshaw had the worst day for an incumbent, and Cornyn is clearly in some trouble.
But they’re not the only incumbents getting scares on Tuesday.
As of late Tuesday night, longtime Democratic Rep. Al Green was locked in a tight contest with Rep. Christian Menefee, who recently won a special election for his Houston-area seat. (The two are running against each other under the new map.)
And in North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee was in a tight contest with Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, a well-funded challenger running to Foushee’s left in a very blue district.
House 18: Texas
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT | VOTES |
| — | — | — |
| Christian Menefee* Democratic | 46.0% | 31,280 305 ahead |
| Al Green* Democratic | 45.6% | 30,975 |
Est.
67%
votes in
Updated 2:23 a.m. ET, Mar. 4
Incumbent
House 4: North Carolina
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT | VOTES |
| — | — | — |
| Valerie Foushee* Democratic | 49.2% | 61,537 1,202 ahead |
| Nida Allam Democratic | 48.2% | 60,335 |
| Mary Patterson Democratic | 2.6% | 3,253 |
Est.
99%
votes in
Updated 11:48 p.m. ET, Mar. 3
Incumbent
The Tony Gonzales saga goes on
Rep. Tony Gonzales speaks to media outside the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, D.C., on July 22, 2024.
Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA/AP/File
But for one incumbent, facing a runoff was actually a good outcome.
GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas faced a rematch with Brandon Herrera, whom he narrowly defeated in his 2024 primary. Gonzales has faced a series of brutal recent disclosures about an alleged affair with a staffer who later died by suicide. The news has led even some Republicans to call for him to resign.
House 23: Texas
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT | VOTES |
| — | — | — |
| Brandon Herrera Republican | 43.4% | 23,548 905 ahead |
| Tony Gonzales* Republican | 41.7% | 22,643 |
Est.
87%
votes in
Updated just now
Incumbent
Advances to runoff
He could still lose a runoff. But for now, he’s got reason not to resign and to keep fighting.
That could be good for Republicans in that it means they might not see their already slim majority shrink. But it could be bad in that they have to keep dealing with a really ugly situation.
A not-so-good day for ambitious House members
Rep. Chip Roy attends a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on January 14, 2026.
Nathan Howard/Reuters
In part thanks to disillusionment with the state of legislating in the House, there are an extraordinary number of House members running for statewide office – more than two dozen of them, in fact.
They are not off to a good start.
While both Crockett and Hunt lost their Senate primaries, Republican Rep. Chip Roy finished a pretty distant second in the Republican primary for Texas attorney general.
He was in line for a runoff with state Sen. Mayes Middleton, but Roy is looking like a distinct underdog.
Attorney General: Texas
| CANDIDATE | PERCENT | VOTES |
| — | — | — |
| Mayes Middleton Republican | 39.4% | 758,127 149,285 ahead |
| Chip Roy Republican | 31.6% | 608,842 |
Est.
84%
votes in
Updated 2:36 a.m. ET, Mar. 4
Advances to runoff