2026-03-25T16:38:37.988Z / CNN 政治
在唐纳德·特朗普总统一系列常不受欢迎的行动的持续冲击下，人们很容易忽视政治上可能最为关键的问题：停滞不前的经济。
距离2026年中期选举还有约7个月，经济一直是特朗普及其所在共和党面临的最大难题。
伊朗战争使这一问题雪上加霜。
新的民调显示，特朗普发动战争的决定，加上汽油价格飙升，让人们对他处理经济的方式更加不满，悲观情绪也比以往更甚。
关键在于，即便战争以相对较快的速度结束，经济的负面冲击也可能持续数月。
特朗普的经济支持率暴跌，新民调显示
周二发布的路透社/益普索（Reuters/Ipsos）民调显示，特朗普的经济支持率创下历史新低，仅为29%。
这一数字较1月和2月的34%至36%有所下降。不仅比特朗普以往任何时候的支持率都要低，甚至比前总统乔·拜登的任何时候都低（拜登在经济问题上挣扎也很严重，最低支持率为32%）。
自2月中旬战争爆发前，特朗普在“生活成本”问题上的净支持率为负31%（30%支持，61%反对），现在已降至负41%（25%支持，66%反对）。在通胀和物价上涨问题上，他的净支持率从负33%（29%支持，62%反对）降至负45%（23%支持，68%反对）。
最引人注目的或许是共和党人的态度转变。
上月，27%的共和党人在“生活成本”问题上不赞成特朗普，而现在这一比例上升到34%。
2月中旬，28%的共和党人在通胀和物价上涨问题上不赞成特朗普，现在这一数字已跃升至40%。
这些都是本应是特朗普基本盘的人群中出现的大幅转变。
对经济影响的担忧加剧
其他近期民调虽然没有显示特朗普的经济支持率有如此大的变化，但它们也带来了其他警示信号，表明伊朗战争可能如何损害特朗普，并使经济成为共和党的负担。
周三发布的美联社-诺尔中心（AP-NORC）民调显示，45%的美国人表示他们对未来几个月能否负担得起汽油费用“极其”或“非常”担忧。这一比例较拜登任期结束时的2024年12月的30%有所上升。
具有讽刺意味的是，当被问及伊朗战争的优先事项时，67%的美国人表示，政府防止石油和天然气价格上涨极为重要或非常重要。这一比例与认为防止伊朗获得核武器极为重要或非常重要的比例（65%）相当。
防止石油和天然气价格上涨也被认为比其他目标重要得多，包括防止伊朗威胁以色列（39%）和用更友好的政府取代伊朗领导人（33%）。
加剧美国人的悲观情绪
上周发布的哥伦比亚广播公司新闻-优捷社（CBS News-YouGov）民调也呈现了类似情况。该民调表明，伊朗战争只会加剧美国人本已严重的经济悲观情绪。
美国人预计战争会使经济在短期内恶化的比例为48个百分点（15%认为会好转，63%认为会恶化）。同样明显的是，多数人预计战争会使经济在长期内恶化（30%-44%）。
美国人对石油和天然气价格的悲观情绪更为严重，58%的人预计战争会使油价长期上涨，而认为会下降的比例仅为27%。
特朗普明确表示，战争将在长期降低油价，并暗示美国人应该愿意为削弱伊朗而承受汽油成本的一些短期痛苦。
但似乎美国人并不愿意为此买单。接受调查的人中，三分之二的人表示，在战争期间，美国人不应该愿意为汽油支付更高的费用。
还有一个最终发现令人瞩目。
伊朗战争的最重大政治问题之一，不仅在于其不受欢迎或人们担心其经济后果，还在于长期以来的民调显示，美国人更希望特朗普关注国内问题——尤其是他们认为特朗普忽视了的通胀问题。
哥伦比亚广播公司的数据表明，战争在这方面进一步损害了特朗普的形象。
在2月底战争爆发前的几天，哥伦比亚广播公司民调显示，45%的美国人认为特朗普“过于关注”国际事务。这一数字现已飙升至58%。
持此观点的独立人士比例从上个月的52%上升到现在的66%，共和党人从19%上升到29%。
这不仅仅关乎当前的民调数字
对特朗普的经济状况而言，上述所有情况都不是好消息——需要再次强调的是，经济对他和共和党而言早已是重大问题。但就像他去年实施关税政策时一样，他决定在经济本就不确定的情况下，采取显然至少在短期内（甚至可能长期）损害经济的行动。
虽然拜登当然可以因对通胀关注不够而受到批评，但特朗普却主动采取了直接导致物价上涨的措施。
这就引出了现在的问题：
即便特朗普很快结束战争，并且霍尔木兹海峡不知何故立即重新开放——这些都是很大的“如果”——经济影响可能仍会持续数月。
正如CNN的戴维·戈德曼（David Goldman）周二所写，油价可以像火箭一样飙升，但往往会像羽毛一样迅速回落。在战争还以其他方式破坏能源市场各个方面的情况下，这一点尤为明显，而能源市场的恢复需要时间。
而且，正如CNN的艾丽西亚·华莱士（Alicia Wallace）所写，这些更高的能源成本往往会使其他许多东西变得更贵。
随着经济影响的持续，这一政治问题可能会进一步恶化。加满一次油箱的费用从每加仑约4美元上涨到几次，这是一回事；但在选举年反复这样做，即使价格从高位略有回落，也是另一回事。
早期民调表明，美国人对这场战争将给他们带来的影响相当担忧。共和党人也应该对此感到担忧。
Analysis: How the war in Iran is making the economy a bigger problem for Trump | CNN Politics
2026-03-25T16:38:37.988Z / CNN Politics
Amid the constant barrage of President Donald Trump’s often-unpopular actions, it can be easy to lose sight of what probably matters most politically: the sputtering economy.
It’s been Trump’s and the GOP’s biggest problem with about seven months to go until the 2026 midterm elections.
The Iran war has made it worse.
New polls indicate that Trump’s decision to launch a war has made people more negative on his handling of the economy and more pessimistic than they already were as gas prices have skyrocketed.
And crucially, even if the war somehow wraps up relatively quickly, the negative economic impacts could linger for months.
Trump’s economic approval is cratering, new polls says
A new Reuters/Ipsos survey released Tuesday showed Trump’s approval rating on the economy hitting an all-time low of 29%.
That’s down from between 34% and 36% in January and February. And it’s not only worse than any of Trump’s previous numbers; it’s also worse than any of former President Joe Biden’s. (Biden, who also struggled mightily with the economy, bottomed out at 32%)
Since mid-February, before the war began, Trump has gone from a minus-31 net approval on “cost of living” (30% approving to 61% disapproving) to minus-41 (25%-66%). And on inflation and rising prices, he’s gone from minus-33 (29%-62%) to minus-45 (23%-68%).
Perhaps most striking is the Republican shift.
While 27% of Republicans disapproved of Trump on “cost of living” issues last month, that number is now 34%.
And while 28% of Republicans disapproved of him on inflation and rising prices in mid-February, that number has jumped to 40%.
Those are large chunks of what should be Trump’s base.
Rising concern about the economic impacts
Other recent polls don’t show Trump’s economic approval rating shifting as much. But they do carry other warning signs for how the Iran war could damage Trump — and solidify the economy as a GOP liability.
A view of a residential building in Tehran, Iran, damaged by a strike on March 23, 2026.
Majid Asgaripou/Wana News Agency/Reuters
A new AP-NORC poll released Wednesday showed 45% of Americans said they were “extremely” or “very” concerned about being able to afford gas in the next few months. That’s up from 30% at the tail end of Biden’s tenure, in December 2024.
Tellingly, when it comes to priorities in the Iran war, 67% of Americans said it was extremely or very important for the administration to prevent rising oil and gas prices. That’s about as many who said the same about preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon (65%).
Preventing rising oil and gas prices was also viewed as significantly more important than other goals, including preventing Iran from threatening Israel (39%) and replacing Iran’s leaders with a friendlier government (33%).
Feeding Americans’ pessimism
The story was similar in a CBS News-YouGov poll released last week. It suggested the Iran war has only exacerbated the already significant American pessimism about the economy.
Americans said by 48 points that they expected the war to make the economy worse in the short term (15% said it would get stronger, 63% said it would get weaker). A clear plurality also expected it to make the economy weaker in the long run (30%-44%).
Americans were even more pessimistic about oil and gas prices, with 58% expecting the war to make them higher over the long term, compared to 27% who thought it would make them lower.
Trump has explicitly argued that the war will lower oil prices in the long term, and has suggested that Americans should be willing to deal with some short-term pain on gas costs in exchange for weakening Iran.
That’s also a price that Americans don’t appear to be willing to pay. Fully two-thirds of those polled said Americans should not be willing to pay more for gas during the war.
A pumpjack is seen behind a gas station in Odessa, Texas, on March 17, 2026.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
And then there’s a final finding that jumps out.
One of the most significant political problems with the Iran war is not just that it’s unpopular or that people worry about the economic consequences; it’s that polling has long shown Americans would much rather Trump focus on domestic issues — especially inflation, which they believe he is neglecting.
The CBS data suggests the war has further damaged Trump on that front.
In the days before the war began in late February, the CBS poll showed 45% of Americans said Trump was “focusing too much” on international matters. That number has now shot up to 58%.
The percentage of independents who agree with that statement has increased from 52% last month to 66% now, and Republicans have gone from 19% to 29%.
It’s not just about today’s numbers
None of that is good news for Trump on the economy, which, it bears re-emphasizing, was already a major problem for him and the GOP. But like with his tariffs last year, he has decided to take an already uncertain economy and pursue action that clearly harms it in at least the short term, if not the long term, too.
While Biden could certainly be criticized for not paying enough attention to inflation, Trump has proactively taken steps that have directly contributed to rising prices.
Which brings us to what happens now.
Even if Trump ends the war soon and the Strait of Hormuz is somehow instantly re-opened — both big “ifs” — it’s likely we’ll see these impacts linger for months.
As CNN’s David Goldman wrote Tuesday, oil prices can shoot up like a rocket, but they tend to drop like a feather. And that’s especially the case in a war that has also damaged other facets of the energy markets in ways that will take time to rebuild.
And those higher energy costs tend to make plenty of other things more expensive, as CNN’s Alicia Wallace wrote.
It’s likely this political problem will get worse as the economic effects linger. It’s one thing to fill up your gas tank a couple of times at around $4 a gallon; it’s another to do it over and over again in an election year — even if prices drop a bit from their highs.
The early polling suggests Americans are quite concerned about what this war will portend for them. And Republicans should be, too.
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