发布时间：2026-03-24T10:00:33.316Z | 来源URL：https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/24/politics/iran-war-bets-prediction-markets
据与美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）分享的分析显示，自2024年以来，一名交易员通过在Polymarket平台上进行数十笔精准押注，成功预测了美国和以色列针对伊朗的军事行动，获利近100万美元。
尽管这些预测的事件均为未宣布的军事行动，该交易员在五位数规模的伊朗相关押注中，竟以惊人的93%胜率获胜。
该交易员的押注表现出高度前瞻性：2024年10月以色列与伊朗的报复性冲突期间，在以方空袭前数小时押注；2025年6月美国空袭伊朗核设施前数小时押注；以及2026年2月美以联合突袭行动（即当前战争的导火索）前数小时押注。
追踪区块链交易的分析公司Bubblemaps的调查结果，凸显了部分预测市场存在内幕交易风险的隐忧——这些平台允许用户就体育、选举乃至战争等各类事件下注。
“从其获利金额、投注标的、交易时机、胜率，以及链上关联等多个维度来看，这些交易均强烈指向内幕交易活动，”Bubblemaps首席执行官尼克·维曼（Nick Vaiman）向CNN表示，“在我看来，这非常可疑。”
目前尚不清楚Bubblemaps所指的交易员是否为内幕人士，其使用的账户为匿名状态，无法公开追溯至特定个人。
这些交易均通过Polymarket国际版平台进行——该平台不受美国监管约束。Polymarket未回应CNN的多次置评请求。
美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）作为预测市场的监管机构，于去年批准Polymarket向美国客户提供交易服务。尽管其面向美国用户的平台尚未全面运营，但专家指出，美国人可通过虚拟专用网络（VPN）轻松访问该离岸平台。
CFTC的批准，距特朗普政府关闭拜登时期对Polymarket是否违规允许美国用户进入其离岸平台的刑事调查数月之后。
“好得令人难以置信”
佐治亚州立大学金融学教授托德·菲利普斯（Todd Phillips）曾在CFTC顾问委员会任职，他指出Bubblemaps发现的伊朗相关交易存在明显风险信号。
菲利普斯表示，高频交易员的胜率通常仅略高于50%，而Bubblemaps的数据显示，该伊朗交易员整体胜率达83%，五位数以上押注胜率更是高达93%，净获利近96.7万美元。
“这要么是难以置信的运气，要么就是内幕交易，”菲利普斯称，“80%至90%的胜率实在‘好得不像真的’。我认为这里面一定有问题。”
尽管多数高回报押注发生在美以军事行动前数小时，但部分交易提前数天或数周下注——菲利普斯指出，后者并不直接指向内幕交易。截至周一晚间，该交易员关联的部分账户仍在Polymarket持有活跃头寸，除伊朗相关交易外，他们还进行了数十笔小型体育赛事投注。
战争阴影下的监管争议
伊朗战争局势已引发对Polymarket、Kalshi（另一家热门预测平台）等预测市场的监管审视。立法者和监管机构对潜在内幕交易及所谓“死亡市场”（针对伊朗最高领袖命运的高风险投注）表示担忧。
禁止内幕交易的Kalshi，在去年获得CFTC批准后已全面在美国运营。该公司于周一宣布新增防内幕交易措施，包括对平台用户（运动员、政客等）进行额外筛查。
CNN与Kalshi有合作关系并使用其数据报道重大事件，其编辑人员被禁止参与预测市场交易。
与Kalshi等部分平台不同，Polymarket曾高调宣称“鼓励内幕信息流入市场”——其首席执行官谢恩·科普兰（Shayne Coplan）在去年11月接受Axios采访时称，“平台创造了让人们披露信息的经济激励，包括潜在内幕人士。”
红线与监管博弈
预测市场已形成一种可疑交易模式：主要集中在Polymarket平台，且往往伴随重大地缘政治事件发生。此前美国抓获委内瑞拉强人尼古拉斯·马杜罗前亦出现类似情况，此次伊朗战争中更有明确例证。
事实上，以色列调查人员近期起诉两名人员（含一名预备役军人），指控其在去年以色列对伊朗战争期间，利用机密信息在Polymarket下注。
面对此类趋势，美国国会两党议员近期提出一项新法案，拟禁止联邦官员利用非公开信息在预测平台下注。
CFTC近期发布指引，明确“提醒”获批预测市场运营商“内幕交易属违法行为”，并可“调查及提起相关民事执法行动”。
自然，所有金融市场均存在内幕交易风险——包括华尔街。美国法律定义较为狭窄，主要针对负有保密义务的交易者。
英国合规预测平台Smarkets首席执行官杰森·特罗斯特（Jason Trost）表示，存在某些“理论上人人可获取但难以发现”的信息（如卫星图像或无意听到的对话），此类情况不属于内幕交易。
“越多这类信息流入市场，对市场越有利，”特罗斯特称，“但如果有人掌握即将发生的重大非公开信息并进行交易，这才是真正的红线。”
Exclusive: Trader made nearly $1 million on Polymarket with remarkably accurate Iran bets
Published Time: 2026-03-24T10:00:33.316Z | URL Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/24/politics/iran-war-bets-prediction-markets
A trader made nearly $1 million since 2024 from dozens of well-timed Polymarket bets that correctly predicted US and Israeli military actions against Iran, according to an analysis shared with CNN.
The bettor won a staggering 93% of their five-figure wagers about Iran, even though the events they predicted were unannounced military operations.
The trader had a pattern of prescient bets, including hours before Israeli strikes in October 2024 during its tit-for-tat conflict with Iran, hours before US airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, and hours before the joint US-Israeli surprise attack in February, which started the current war.
The findings from Bubblemaps, an analytics company that tracks blockchain transactions, highlight the rising concerns about the potential for insider trading on some prediction markets, where users can wager on everything from sports to elections to warfare.
“All of this is strong signaling of insider activity, based on the amount they made, the markets they bet on, the timing of their trades, the success rates of these trades, and the fact that they are connected on-chain,” Bubblemaps CEO Nick Vaiman told CNN. “This is pretty suspicious in my book.”
It isn’t clear whether the trader flagged by Bubblemaps is an insider, and the accounts they used are anonymous and can’t be publicly traced to a specific person.
The bets were placed on Polymarket’s international site, which is out of the reach of US regulations. Polymarket didn’t respond to CNN’s multiple requests for comment.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, approved Polymarket to start offering trades for American customers last year. Its US-facing site isn’t fully operational yet, but experts say Americans can easily access the offshore site with a virtual private network, or VPN.
The CFTC’s approval came months after the Trump administration closed a Biden-era criminal probe into whether Polymarket was improperly letting US users onto its offshore platforms.
‘Too good to be true’
Todd Phillips, a finance professor at Georgia State University who previously served on a CFTC advisory board, said he saw red flags with the Iran trades spotted by Bubblemaps.
Most high-frequency traders typically have a win rate slightly above 50%, Phillips said. The Bubblemaps analysis showed that the Iran trader had an overall win rate of 83%, and a 93% rate for trades over $10,000. They netted nearly $967,000.
“It sure seems like this person either has incredible luck, or was insider trading,” Phillips said. “Having win rates in the 80% to 90% range is just too good to be true. I look at this, and I think something fishy is going on.”
While many of the highly lucrative bets came hours before US or Israeli military activity, other bets were placed days or weeks beforehand — which Philips said is less indicative of insider activity.
Some of the accounts linked to this user still have active positions on Polymarket as of Monday evening. While their most lucrative trades pertained to Iran, they also placed dozens of smaller wagers on various sporting events.
The war in Iran has put a spotlight on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, another popular prediction site. Lawmakers and government watchdogs have raised concerns about potential insider trading and so-called “death markets,” after high-profile bets about the fate of Iran’s supreme leader.
Kalshi, which bans insider trading, operates fully in the US after securing CFTC approval last year. The company announced new guardrails Monday against insider trading, including extra screenings for athletes and politicians who use the platform.
CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. Editorial employees are prohibited from participating in prediction markets.
Unlike Kalshi and some other sites, Polymarket has touted the role of potential insiders. Its CEO Shayne Coplan told Axios in November it was “super cool” that his platform “creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market,” including potential insiders.
Where is the red line?
There is now a well-established pattern of suspiciously timed trades on prediction sites, primarily Polymarket, seemingly whenever major geopolitical events occur. It happened before US forces captured Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro in January, and there were already examples from the Iran war.
In fact, investigators in Israel recently indicted two individuals, including a military reservist, for allegedly using classified material to bet on Polymarket during the country’s war against Iran last year, according to local reports.
Concerned about this trend, a growing and bipartisan array of US lawmakers have recently proposed new legislation that would ban federal officials from using non-public information to bet on prediction platforms.
And the CFTC recently put out guidance that “reminds” approved operators of prediction markets that “insider trading” is illegal, and that the agency can “investigate and bring civil enforcement actions related to any such activity.”
Naturally, there are insider trading risks on all financial markets, including on Wall Street. And the legal definition in the US is narrow, focusing mostly on traders who have a legal obligation to keep certain information private.
Jason Trost, the CEO of Smarkets, a regulated prediction site that operates in the United Kingdom, said there are situations where valuable information is “in theory, available for everybody” but is hard to find, like obscure satellite imagery or overhearing a neighbor. This isn’t insider activity, Trost said.
“The more of that information that gets into the marketplace, all the better,” Trost said. “But if there’s something you know about, that is about to happen, and it is materially non-public information, then that, I think, is the red line.”
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