2026-03-24T04:00:33.782Z / CNN
作者：斯蒂芬·科林森分析
4小时前发布
2026年3月24日，美国东部时间凌晨12:00
中东 唐纳德·特朗普 石油与天然气
战争不像非法关税，无法随意开关以迎合总统的突发奇想，也无法永久支撑自由落体的市场。
因此，在总统唐纳德·特朗普暂停对伊朗发电厂的威胁性打击后，关键问题不在于他是否又上演了一次TACO（”特朗普总是临阵退缩”）时刻。
而是特朗普是否能够从对伊朗的战争中脱身，即便他想这么做。
经过几天摇摆不定的言论，特朗普周一暗示冲突可能首次出现缓和，称他与伊朗进行了”富有成效的会谈”，并列出了15点协议。德黑兰方面则表示，双方并未进行对话。
对最新事态发展最乐观的解读是，美国和伊朗都已意识到，升级冲突的代价将极为可怕，双方都需要一条出路。这种顿悟可能会开始结束战争。
唐纳德·特朗普总统于2026年3月23日乘坐”海军一号”抵达白宫后在南草坪行走。
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
特朗普通过威胁要轰炸伊朗的发电厂，除非其开放霍尔木兹海峡（石油出口的咽喉要道），将对手拖到了悬崖边缘。德黑兰方面曾承诺，将报复性烧毁美国盟友海湾国家的关键基础设施。这场冲突可能引发全球经济衰退，并加剧伊朗平民的人道主义危机——而特朗普曾承诺要帮助这些平民。
但对于突破性进展是否迫在眉睫，仍有诸多疑虑。
特朗普及其政府连日来发表的反复无常、相互矛盾的言论，无法为这场战争提供连贯的理由或退出战略，这意味着任何单一的美国声明都缺乏可信度。
总统惯于在自己设定的最后期限内发动轰炸，因此，如果他打破对伊朗发电厂五天的暂停打击承诺，也不会令人意外。
一些愤世嫉俗者指出，总统的暂停行动将持续整个全球市场交易周。上周末，股市期货暴跌、油价飙升，他是否只是为了给市场稳定性缓冲垫？
这并非首次出现官方声明旨在抑制市场波动的情况，而且这次又奏效了：周一，道琼斯指数、标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数均上涨超过1%，而全球石油基准布伦特原油价格下跌11%。美国司机或许希望在加油站能得到喘息。
唐纳德·特朗普总统于3月20日从白宫南草坪登上”海军一号”准备离开。
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
特朗普为何需要降温
特朗普可能有另一个原因想要争取时间：能够让他选择入侵霍尔木兹岛（伊朗石油工业的核心和重要经济枢纽），或占领霍尔木兹海峡内岛屿和沿海地区的美军部队尚未完全集结。一支从日本部署的美国海军陆战队远征部队可能很快抵达该地区，但另一支部队上周才从西海岸出发。
还值得记住的是，特朗普喜欢夸大其词。经验表明，他对外交进展的炒作以及声称伊朗”迫切”需要达成协议的说法可能被夸大了——即使刻意欺骗有时是政治家为突破创造空间的工具。
总统时而谈论”逐步结束战争”，时而又升级战争的疯狂摇摆，与稳定的战争领导传统背道而驰，但这正是特朗普的典型特征。到周一为止，这一切看起来都像是一个策略，让他能够宣称自己强硬的策略已经取得了外交进展。
这种不可预测性以及试图缓解自己制造的危机的倾向，在特朗普的个人生活、商业和政治生涯中都很常见，也体现在他多次与司法系统的纠纷中。每天似乎都在为了在夜幕降临时站稳脚跟而挣扎。通过这种技巧，特朗普推迟了清算，并在无休止的即兴表演中延缓了自己行动的最严重后果。
然而，令人清醒的是，特朗普这种反复无常的策略可能在波斯湾面临极限考验。
3月3日，伊朗首都德黑兰遭到打击后升起浓烟。
Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
伊朗可能在美国和以色列的联合打击下火力不支，在战争中其海、陆、空资产遭受了极其惨重的损失，伊斯兰神职人员政权的高级成员被消灭。
但随着冲突进入第四周，伊朗也展现了其影响力——有效封锁霍尔木兹海峡，并将全球经济和11月的共和党政治希望作为人质。
逻辑表明，在战争前本就极度激进的政权，在最高领袖被杀、遭受美国和以色列导弹及战机的猛烈攻击后，不太可能对特朗普的要求更加开放。
特朗普结束战争的条件——可能包括伊朗放弃核计划和远程弹道导弹——可能是无法妥协的。因为过去三周已经明确表明，一个流氓政权为何可能决定采取此类”保险政策”，以防范外国势力未来的攻击。
即使谈判开启——巴基斯坦已提出主持谈判——也不清楚谁将代表伊朗进行谈判。一个权力分散且失去关键人物的政权可能难以做出集体决策。如果正如一些专家所认为的，伊斯兰革命卫队现在全面掌权，其立场可能比以前更加强硬。
此外，过去华盛顿曾与相对温和的伊朗官员对话，但发现更激进的人物反对妥协。
同样，伊朗领导人可能将总统的反复无常、矛盾言论和情绪化的社交媒体帖子解读为他们通过施加经济后果来影响特朗普的策略正在奏效的迹象。
唐纳德·特朗普总统周一在棕榈滩国际机场登上”空军一号”前对记者讲话。
Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images
为何特朗普几乎所有选择都很糟糕
没人能知道伊朗局势的走向。暗杀高级领导人以及美国和以色列的攻击可能已经对政权造成了致命裂痕，但目前尚无明显的解体迹象。
空战严重削弱了伊朗的区域威胁能力。但如果武力尚未使其屈服，特朗普尚未解释为何伊朗会在没有实质性美国让步的情况下放弃其主要杠杆——对霍尔木兹海峡的控制。
但很容易理解为何总统可能被谈判前景所诱惑。他需要一条”出路”，因为许多潜在的行动方案都不具吸引力。
他可以继续以当前形式升级战争——将美国火力集中在霍尔木兹海峡周围的伊朗资产上——但无法保证这能彻底削弱德黑兰的能力，使船只能够安全通行。
他可以决定派遣地面部队，但这将跨越政治红线，让人回想起特朗普之前发动的”永久战争”。
“TACO”选项——无论真假，宣称胜利——看起来很有吸引力。但贸然撤军将使反对他战争的美国海湾盟友暴露在愤怒且实力增强的伊朗面前。如果不确保伊朗放弃高浓缩铀储备，结束战争可能会让伊朗有朝一日加速发展核武器，从而削弱特朗普发动战争的最核心理由。
总统们常常面临没有好选择的危机，但很少有人面临像特朗普自己为伊朗制造的如此棘手的局面。
中东 唐纳德·特朗普 石油与天然气
Why Trump may not be able to TACO in Iran — even if he wants to
2026-03-24T04:00:33.782Z / CNN
Analysis by Stephen Collinson
4 hr ago
PUBLISHED Mar 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
The Middle East Donald Trump Oil & gas
Wars, unlike illegal tariffs, cannot be switched on and off to meet a president’s whims or to permanently shore up free-falling markets.
So the key question following President Donald Trump’s suspension of threatened strikes against Iran’s power plants is not whether he’s had another TACO (“Trump always chickens out”) moment.
It’s whether Trump can get out of his war on Iran, even if he wants to.
After days of oscillating rhetoric, Trump signaled a first potential de-escalation in the conflict Monday, when he cited 15 points of agreement in what he said were productive talks with Iran. Tehran said there’d been no dialogue.
The most hopeful spin on the latest developments is that US and Iran have both reached a point where the cost of climbing the escalation ladder would be so horrific that both need a way out. Such epiphanies can begin to end wars.
President Donald Trump walks on the South Lawn after arriving on Marine One at the White House on March 23, 2026.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
Trump had dragged the enemies to the brink by threatening to bomb Iran’s power plants if it didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for oil exports. Tehran had promised to retaliate by torching vital infrastructure in US-allied Gulf states. The conflagration could have set off a global recession and worsened dire humanitarian conditions for the very Iranian civilians Trump pledged to help.
But there are many reasons for skepticism that a breakthrough is imminent.
Days of erratic, contradictory rhetoric from Trump and the administration’s inability to cite a consistent rationale for the war or to plot an exit strategy mean that any single US statement lacks credibility.
The president’s habit of bombing during his own deadlines in Iran mean no one would be surprised if he broke his own five-day moratorium on striking the country’s power plants.
Some cynics also note that the president’s pause will last throughout the trading week on global markets. With stock futures tumbling and oil prices soaring coming out of the weekend, was he simply seeking to stitch a cushion of market stability?
It wouldn’t be the first time that official statements seemed aimed at taming volatility. And it worked again: The Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all rose over 1% Monday, while Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 11%. US drivers will hope for a break at the gasoline pumps.
President Donald Trump walks to board Marine One as he departs from the South Lawn of the White House on March 20.
Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
Why Trump needs to turn down the heat
Trump may want to buy time for another reason: The US forces that might give him the option to invade Kharg Island — the epicenter of Iran’s oil industry and a vital economic hub — or to occupy islands and coastal regions in the Strait are not yet fully assembled. One US Marine Expeditionary Unit that deployed from Japan may reach the region soon. But a second only set off from the West Coast last week.
It’s also worth remembering that Trump loves hyperbole. Experience suggests that his hyping of diplomatic progress and claims Iran “badly” wants a deal may be overstatements — even if deliberate deception is sometimes a tool statesmen use to create space for breakthroughs.
The president’s wild gyrations that had him talking about “winding down” the war one day and escalating it the next were incompatible with the traditions of stable war leadership. But they were quintessential Trump. By Monday, it all looked like a ruse to allow him to argue his hard-man tactics had forged diplomatic progress.
This unpredictability and tendency to try to mitigate his self-created crises is familiar from Trump’s personal life and his business and political career, as well as his multiple scrapes with the justice system. Each day often unfolds as a quest to remain standing by nightfall. With this technique, Trump delays reckonings and defers the worst consequences of his actions in an endless improvisational dance.
Yet there’s a sobering possibility that Trump’s erratic method may be tested beyond its limits in the Persian Gulf.
A plume of smoke rises after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran, on March 3.
Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
Iran might be outgunned by the US and Israeli assault and suffering extremely heavy losses to its naval, air and land-based assets during a war that has wiped out senior members of the Islamic clerical regime.
But as the conflict enters a fourth week, it’s also demonstrated its own leverage after effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and holding the global economy — and Republican political hopes in November — hostage.
Logic suggests a regime that was already ultra-radical before the war is unlikely to be more open to Trump’s demands after the killing of its supreme leader and enduring an onslaught from US and Israeli missiles and jets.
Trump’s terms for ending the war — likely to include Iran renouncing its nuclear program and long-range ballistic missiles — may be deal-breakers. That’s because the last three weeks show exactly why a rogue regime might decide to pursue such insurance policies against future attacks by foreign powers.
Even if talks do open — and Pakistan has offered to hold them — it’s not clear who would be negotiating for Iran. A regime that has decentralized authority and lost key figures may struggle to make collective decisions. And if, as some experts believe, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are now in full control, it might be even more hardline than before.
Moreover, in the past Washington has spoken to relatively moderate Iranian officials, only to find more radical figures set against compromise.
It also would not be surprising if Iran’s leaders interpret the president’s reversals, contradictions and emotional social media posts as signs that their strategy of imposing economic consequences on Trump is working.
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport on Monday.
Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images
Why almost all Trump’s options are bad
No one can know what is ahead in Iran. It’s possible that the assassinations of senior leaders and the US and Israel attacks have caused fatal cracks in the regime that are not yet evident. But there are so far no clear public signs of disintegration.
The air war has seriously downgraded Iran’s regional threat. But if brute force has not already brought it to its knees, Trump has not yet explained why Iran would give up its prime leverage — its hold on the Strait — without substantial US concessions.
But it’s easy to see why the president may be seduced by the prospect of talks. He needs an off-ramp because many of his potential courses of action are unappealing.
He could escalate the war in its current form — concentrating US fire on Iranian assets around the Strait — but there are no guarantees this would so degrade Tehran’s capabilities it would be safe for ships to transit.
He could decide to commit ground troops. But this would cross a political Rubicon that would recall the forever wars Trump ran against.
The TACO option — and a declaration of victory whether it’s genuine or not — does look attractive. But walking away would leave US Gulf allies who opposed his war exposed to an angry, empowered Iran. Ending the war without securing Iran’s stocks of highly enriched uranium might allow it to race to a nuclear weapon one day and would undercut Trump’s most consistent rationale for the war.
Presidents often confront crises that come with no good options, but few face situations quite as intractable as the one in Iran that Trump created for himself.
The Middle East Donald Trump Oil & gas
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