美国情报机构现称，中国领导人对统一台湾没有固定时间表，这与多年来有关行动窗口收窄的警告形成了转变
摩根·菲利普斯报道
福克斯新闻
2026年3月20日 美国东部时间下午1:43发布
尽管多年来一直有警告称中国可能在十年内对台湾采取行动，但美国情报界现在评估认为，北京方面并未计划在2027年入侵台湾，也没有为此设定固定时间表。
根据最新发布的《年度威胁评估》，”情报界评估认为，中国领导人目前没有计划在2027年执行入侵台湾的行动，也没有为实现统一设定固定时间表。”
这一发现标志着华盛顿此前警告的转变——过去美国方面一直认为中国将在不断收窄的时间窗口内（常被称为”戴维森窗口”，得名于2021年美国印太司令部最高指挥官的警告）具备对台行动能力。
这一基准在2021年得到关注：当时印太司令菲利普·戴维森上将告诉议员，中国可能”在未来六年内”试图控制台湾，并警告威胁将”在本十年内显现”。
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美国国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德在周三的全球威胁听证会上告诉国会：”中国目前正在’建设一支旨在有能力威慑美国及其盟友在该地区的力量，并实现其宣称的在必要时以武力夺取台湾的能力’。然而，情报界评估认为，中国可能更倾向于在不发生冲突的情况下，为最终与台湾和平统一创造条件。”
与之前仅关注中国日益增强的军事压力和入侵能力的评估不同，早期报告并未对北京是否计划使用武力做出明确判断。2024年和2025年的评估将台湾描述为潜在的导火索，并警告中国正在构建跨海作战能力，但未明确设定时间表或意图。
尽管有上述评估，报告仍强调中国并未放弃将台湾纳入掌控的目标，继续建设所需的军事能力。
中国国家主席习近平（中共中央总书记、中央军委主席）会见军事人员代表。（李刚/Xinhua via Getty Images）
报告指出，北京”如果可能的话，更倾向于不使用武力实现统一”，但人民解放军仍在为潜在的军事行动制定计划和能力建设。
传统基金会高级研究员、退休海军上尉布伦特·萨德勒表示，如果政策制定者只关注中国当前的意图，而忽视其日益增强的能力，这种评估可能会被解读得过于宽泛。
“意图可能在纽约的一秒钟内就发生变化，”萨德勒告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，”习近平可能早上醒来决定’我今天不想开战’，但明天早上可能就说’就是今天’。真正的问题是资金和物资流向哪里。”
由国家情报总监办公室发布的年度威胁评估，反映了美国情报界的协同分析，并由国会授权向议员提供未分类的全球最紧迫威胁概述。该报告综合了过去一年各情报机构的更新分析。
该评估每年以机密和非机密形式发布，公开版本旨在概述关键威胁，同时不披露敏感情报来源或方法。
美国情报官员还指出，中国是否决定使用武力将取决于多个因素，包括军事准备情况、台湾的政治轨迹以及美国是否会为台湾介入。
报告警告称，全面入侵将非常困难和危险，特别是如果美军介入的话。中国官员也认识到此类行动将”极具挑战性”，并承担高失败风险。
美国优先政策研究所中国中心高级研究员皮耶罗·托齐认为，北京仍专注于在不发生直接军事对抗的情况下夺取台湾。
“他们想要的是’不战而胜’台湾，”托齐告诉福克斯新闻数字频道，转而提及针对台湾政治体系和舆论的持续”认知战”努力。
他补充说，全面两栖入侵将给中国带来巨大代价。
“对台湾的实际入侵将非常血腥，”托齐说，”如果进行海上入侵，伤亡人数将达到数万，这将导致中国国内严重动荡，并威胁政权稳定。”
更广泛地说，情报界评估认为，中国在与美国的长期竞争中，继续扩大其军事力量和全球影响力，同时”争取时间加强自身地位”。
台湾国家安全委员会秘书廖正元、总统赖清德和国防部长顾立雄与士兵合影。（I-HWA CHENG/AFP via Getty Images）
台湾国家安全委员会秘书廖正元、总统赖清德和国防部长顾立雄与士兵合影。（Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images）
此次更新的评估正值美国仍在与伊朗进行高强度冲突之际，这引发了国防分析师对全球紧张局势如何影响北京对台决策的新疑问。
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此次更新的评估正值美国仍在与伊朗进行高强度冲突之际，这引发了国防分析师对全球紧张局势如何影响北京对台决策的新疑问。
尽管报告没有直接将近期伊朗冲突与中国时间表联系起来，但它强调了日益加剧的地缘政治竞争、军事现代化和地区不稳定等更广泛环境，这些都可能影响北京的未来决策。
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与此同时，情报界警告称，伊朗在近期军事打击后可能继续构成威胁，伊朗”几乎肯定会寻求报复”其最高领袖的死亡。
即使近期不对台湾采取行动，报告也明确指出与中国发生冲突的风险仍然存在，因为北京继续为各种军事应急情况做准备，同时推进其统一的长期目标。
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6390591665112
US intel finds no China plan to invade Taiwan by 2027, despite military buildup
US intelligence now says Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for unification, a shift from years of warnings about a narrowing window for action
By Morgan Phillips
Fox News
Published March 20, 2026 1:43pm EDT
Despite years of warnings that China could move on Taiwan within the decade, the U.S. intelligence community now assesses that Beijing is not planning an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 and has no fixed timeline for doing so.
“The IC assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” according to a newly released Annual Threat Assessment.
The finding marks a shift from prior warnings in Washington that China would have the capability to move on Taiwan within a narrowing window — often referred to as the “Davidson Window,” after a 2021 warning from a top U.S. Indo-Pacific commander.
That benchmark gained traction after then-Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Philip Davidson told lawmakers in 2021 that China could attempt to take control of Taiwan “in the next six years,” warning the threat would “manifest during this decade.”
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China is currently “building a force with the aim of being capable of deterring U.S. and allied forces in the region and to achieve their stated objective of developing the ability to seize Taiwan by force if necessary,” Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Congress during a worldwide threat hearing Wednesday. “However, the IC assesses that China likely prefers to set the conditions for an eventual peaceful reunification with Taiwan, short of conflict.”
Unlike previous assessments, which focused on China’s growing military pressure and invasion capabilities, earlier reports did not make a definitive judgment about whether Beijing planned to use force. The 2024 and 2025 assessments described Taiwan as a potential flashpoint and warned China was building the capability for a cross-strait campaign, but stopped short of assigning a timeline or stating intent.
Despite the assessment, the report underscores that China has not abandoned its goal of bringing Taiwan under its control and continues to build the military capabilities needed to do so.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, meets with representatives of military personnel.(Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images)
Beijing “prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible,” but the People’s Liberation Army is still developing plans and capabilities for a potential military operation, the report says.
Retired Navy Capt. Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said the assessment risks being read too broadly if policymakers focus only on China’s current intentions rather than its growing capabilities.
“Intentions can change in a New York second,” Sadler told Fox News Digital. “Xi Jinping could wake up and decide, ‘I don’t want to go to war today,’ but he could wake up tomorrow in the morning and say, ‘Yeah, today’s the day.’ The real issue is where the money and where the materials are going.”
The annual threat assessment, produced by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, reflects the coordinated analysis of the U.S. intelligence community and is mandated by Congress to provide lawmakers with an unclassified overview of the most pressing global threats. The report is compiled with input from across the intelligence agencies based on updates throughout the past year.
The assessment is released annually in both classified and unclassified forms, with a public version intended to outline key threats without revealing sensitive intelligence sources or methods.
U.S. intelligence officials also note that any decision by China to use force would depend on several factors, including military readiness, Taiwan’s political trajectory and whether the United States would intervene on the island’s behalf.
The report warns that a full-scale invasion would be difficult and risky, particularly if U.S. forces become involved, with Chinese officials recognizing that such an operation would be “extremely challenging” and carry a high risk of failure.
Piero Tozzi, a senior fellow at the Center for China at the America First Policy Institute, argued Beijing is still focused on trying to take Taiwan without a direct military confrontation.
“What they want to do is to win Taiwan without a war,” Tozzi told Fox News Digital, pointing instead to what he described as ongoing “cognitive warfare” efforts targeting Taiwan’s political system and public opinion.
He added that a full-scale amphibious invasion would come at a steep cost for China.
“An actual invasion of Taiwan would be very bloody,” Tozzi said. “If you had a maritime invasion of Taiwan and the casualties, you’d be talking about wiping out entire family lineages in the tens of thousands. That would lead to serious internal unrest within China, and that would threaten the regime.”
More broadly, the intelligence community assesses that China is continuing to expand its military power and global influence while seeking to “buy time to strengthen its position” in its long-term competition with the United States.
Taiwan’s National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s President William Lai and Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo pose for photos with soldiers as they visit the troops.(I-HWA CHENG/AFP via Getty Images)
Taiwan’s National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s President William Lai and Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo pose for photos with soldiers as they visit the troops.(Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The updated assessment comes as the U.S. remains heavily engaged in a high-intensity conflict with Iran, raising new questions among defense analysts about how global tensions could shape Beijing’s calculus on Taiwan.
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The updated assessment comes as the U.S. remains heavily engaged in a high-intensity conflict with Iran, raising new questions among defense analysts about how global tensions could shape Beijing’s calculus on Taiwan.
While the report does not directly link the recent Iran conflict to China’s timeline, it highlights a broader environment of rising geopolitical competition, military modernization and regional instability that could influence future decisions in Beijing.
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At the same time, the intelligence community warns that Iran is likely to continue posing a threat to U.S. interests following recent military strikes, noting that Iran “almost certainly will seek to exact revenge” for the death of its supreme leader.
Even without a near-term move on Taiwan, the report makes clear that the risk of conflict with China remains, as Beijing continues preparing for a range of military contingencies while pursuing its long-term goal of unification.
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6390591665112
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