专家称：美国消费者需做好应对油价上涨的准备

2026年3月20日 / 美国东部时间下午12:46 / CBS新闻

对于美国消费者而言，伊朗战争导致的油价飙升不仅意味着加油站的痛苦——这种影响还可能波及实体店和线上购物的消费者。

自冲突导致波斯湾关键水道霍尔木兹海峡实际上关闭以来，全球油价已上涨超过40%。该海峡通常容纳全球约五分之一的石油和天然气供应。

这一激增影响了美国供应链的每个环节。从穿越大洋的货船到停在你家门口的送货货车，燃料和其他能源价格的上涨正在推高商品运输成本。

毕马威首席经济学家戴安·斯旺克（Diane Swonk）告诉CBS新闻：”所有这些转变都在增加成本，其中一部分将转嫁给消费者。”

她补充道：”无法转嫁的成本会表现为利润率和就业的压缩。”

作为国际标准的布伦特原油，在2月28日美国和以色列袭击伊朗之前约为每桶70美元，周五价格升至108.84美元。

根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，截至3月20日，美国平均汽油价格已跃升至每加仑3.92美元，较一周前上涨29美分，较2月20日上涨近1美元。

牛津经济研究院美国首席经济学家伯纳德·亚罗斯（Bernard Yaros）在周五的一份报告中表示：”3月和4月的头条通胀将急剧上升，主要是由于汽油价格上涨，而供应中断推高食品价格和其他商品价格，通胀将保持在较高水平。”

“左右为难”

东海岸年销售额超过5亿美元的连锁杂货店Stew Leonard的所有者对能源价格上涨对公司供应商的影响表示担忧，同时指出目前暂不打算提高价格。

“Stew Leonard’s尚未感受到油价上涨的影响，但我们的农民、牧场主和渔民现在正面临燃油附加费的压力。我们陷入了左右为难的境地。消费者在个人生活中已经感受到食品、能源和保险账单的压力，我会一直抵制涨价，直到不得不提价为止。”

并非所有零售商都会同样感受到压力。ShipMatrix的物流专家萨蒂什·金德尔（Satish Jindel）表示，低价值商品零售商将受到运输成本增加的最大冲击。

“他们的利润率不足——他们将需要提高价格。”金德尔指出，美元树（Dollar Tree）、家庭美元（Family Dollar）、马歇尔（Marshalls）和TJ Maxx等零售商可能会感受到能源成本上升的影响。

燃油附加费

对于在线购物者来说，油价大幅上涨的影响可能不仅体现在某些产品的价格上，还会体现在运输和配送成本上。

“大多数在线订购的人都期望免费的正常配送——一旦你要求哪怕5美元的额外费用，他们就会放弃购物车，”金德尔说。

相反，他预计许多商店将提高免费配送的最低购买金额。

ShipMatrix的数据显示，运输燃料成本已经攀升。燃油附加费在运费中的占比在三周内上升了17%。

美国国家能源分析中心高级研究员G.艾伦·布鲁克斯（G. Allen Brooks）告诉CBS新闻：”航运面临的最大问题是，当船只在海上时，人们就会忽视它们的存在。消费者会看到价格上涨，但不会完全明白原因。”

深入阅读《自由新闻》

伊朗 | 石油和天然气

油价上涨如何影响商品运输

油价上涨如何影响线下和线上购物的消费者 02:43

油价上涨如何影响线下和线上购物的消费者

(02:43)

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https://www.cbsnews.com/video/how-rising-fuel-prices-impact-consumers-shopping-in-stores-or-online/

U.S. shoppers should brace for impact of higher oil prices, experts say

March 20, 2026 / 12:46 PM EDT / CBS News

For U.S. consumers, soaring oil prices due to the Iran war don’t just mean pain at the pump — the impact is also likely to be felt by shoppers both in stores and online.

Global oil prices have jumped more than 40% since the conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway in the Persian Gulf that normally accommodates roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply.

That surge is affecting every link in the U.S. supply chain. From cargo ships crossing the ocean to the delivery van pulling up to your door, rising fuel and other energy prices are driving up the cost of transporting goods.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, told CBS News that “all of those shifts are adding to costs, a portion of which will be passed along to consumers.”

“The costs that are not passed along show up as a squeeze in profit margins and employment,” she added.

A barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, on Friday cost $108.84 after selling for around $70 just before the U.S and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.

As of March 20, the average U.S. gas price had jumped to $3.92 per gallon, up 29 cents from a week ago and nearly $1 a gallon from February 20, according to AAA.

“Headline inflation… will rise sharply in March and April, mostly due to gasoline prices, and inflation will remain stronger as the disruption pushes up food prices and other items,” Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said in a report on Friday.

“Rock and a hard place”

Stew Leonard, owner of an East Coast grocery chain with annual sales of more than $500 million, expressed concern about the impact of higher energy prices on the company’s suppliers, while noting that it is holding off on hiking prices for now.

“Stew Leonard’s has not felt the impact of rising oil prices, but our farmers, ranchers and fishermen are knocking on the door right now with fuel surcharges. We’re caught between a rock and a hard place. Customers are already feeling the pain of food, energy and insurance bills in their personal lives, and I’m going to resist raising prices until the cows come home.”

Not every retailer will feel the pinch equally. Logistics expert Satish Jindel of ShipMatrix said retailers with lower-value items will be the hardest hit by increased shipping costs.

“They don’t have enough in margins — they’ll need to raise prices.” Jindel said, pointing to retailers including Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, Marshalls and TJ Maxx among those likely feeling the impact of elevated energy costs.

Fuel surcharges

For online shoppers, the impact of sharply higher oil costs may show up not just in the price of some products, but also in shipping and delivery costs.

“Most people ordering online, they expect normal delivery for free — the moment you ask them even for five dollars, they will abandon the cart,” Jindel said.

Instead, he expects many stores to raise the purchase minimums required to qualify for free shipping.

Fuel costs for shipping are already climbing. According to data from ShipMatrix, fuel surcharges as a portion of shipping fees have climbed 17% in three weeks.

“The biggest problem that shipping has is when the ships are working, they’re out of sight and mind,” G. Allen Brooks, a senior fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics, told CBS News. Consumers will “see the price increases, and they won’t fully understand why.”