2026年3月19日 / 美国东部时间下午5:35 / CBS新闻
本周美国抵押贷款利率飙升至三个月以来最高水平，伊朗战争加剧了通胀担忧并给美国房地产市场带来压力。
根据房地美（Freddie Mac）的数据，截至3月19日的一周，30年期固定抵押贷款利率升至6.22%，较上周的6.11%有所上升。
经济学家指出，当前借贷成本仍远低于一年前常规30年期贷款6.67%的利率。尽管如此，最新的上升趋势对随着春季购房季开始而寻找住房的购房者来说是个令人沮丧的信号。2月底，抵押贷款利率自2022年9月以来首次降至6%以下。
Realtor.com高级经济学家安东尼·史密斯（Anthony Smith）告诉美联社：”持续的不确定性可能再次让买卖双方却步，这让人回想起去年市场的犹豫状态。”
抵押贷款银行家协会的数据显示，上周抵押贷款申请量较前一周下降近11%。美国人口普查局的新数据还显示，1月份新单户住宅销售较上月下降近18%，较2025年1月下降11.3%。
伊朗战争的影响
自2月底中东冲突爆发以来，30年期固定抵押贷款利率持续攀升。这场战争加剧了全球能源供应紧张，推高了油价，并给金融市场带来不确定性。
影响抵押贷款利率走向的10年期国债收益率周四下午升至4.26%，高于战争爆发前的3.96%。随着长期债券收益率上升，抵押贷款利率也随之上涨。
Realtor.com高级经济学家安东尼·史密斯在一篇博客文章中表示：”能源价格上涨和贸易不确定性的重新抬头已提高了通胀预期，给长期利率带来上行压力，进而影响抵押贷款利率。”
抵押贷款利率还受到美联储利率决策的间接影响，美联储的决策会影响更广泛的借贷环境。美联储不直接设定抵押贷款利率，但其调整短期利率的决定受到债券投资者的密切关注，并可能影响10年期国债收益率。
美联储本周决定维持利率不变，以评估伊朗战争的影响，同时暗示今年可能至少降息一次。
然而，一些华尔街分析师对此表示怀疑。安永-帕台农集团（EY-Parthenon）首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科（Gregory Daco）在一份报告中表示，”美联储今年完全有可能不会降息”。
编辑：Alain Sherter
美联社对本文有贡献。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/impact-of-rising-fuel-costs-on-feds-interest-rate-decision/
Mortgage rates rise as Iran war fans inflation fears and lifts Treasury yields
March 19, 2026 / 5:35 PM EDT / CBS News
Mortgage rates in the U.S. jumped this week to the highest level in three months, as the Iran war fans inflation fears and puts pressure on the U.S. housing market.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% in the week ending March 19, up from 6.11% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac.
Economists note that current borrowing costs remain well below the 6.67% rate on a conventional 30-year loan a year ago. Still, the latest uptick is a discouraging sign for house hunters as the spring buying season kicks off. In late February, mortgage rates fell below 6% for the first time since September 2022.
“Elevated uncertainty could once again sideline both buyers and sellers, echoing the hesitant market conditions seen last year,” Anthony Smith, senior economist at Realtor.com, told the Associated Press.
Mortgage applications fell nearly 11% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. New Census Bureau data also show that sales of new single-family homes dropped nearly 18% in January from the previous month and are down 11.3% from January 2025.
Iran war impact
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed since the conflict in the Middle East began in late February. The war has tightened global energy supplies, raising oil prices and injecting uncertainty into financial markets.
The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences the direction of mortgage rates, was at 4.26% on Thursday afternoon, up from 3.96% before the war started. As long-term bond yields rise, that pushes up mortgage rates.
“Rising energy prices and renewed trade uncertainty have lifted inflation expectations, putting upward pressure on longer-term interest rates and, in turn, mortgage rates,” Realtor.com senior economist Anthony Smith said in a blog post.
Mortgage rates are also indirectly influenced by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, which impact the broader lending environment. The central bank doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its decisions to raise or lower its short-term rate are watched closely by bond investors and can affect the yield on 10-year Treasury.
The Fed decided this week to hold rates steady as it assesses the impact of the Iran war, while also signaling that it could move to lower rates at least once this year.
However, some Wall Street analysts have cast doubt on that. EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said in a report that it’s “entirely plausible that the Fed won’t deliver any rate cuts this year.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/impact-of-rising-fuel-costs-on-feds-interest-rate-decision/
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