2026年3月19日 / 美国东部时间上午7:40 / CBS新闻
一项新分析发现，伊朗战争引发的美国汽油价格上涨可能会大幅抵消许多美国人今年有望获得的更高退税金额。
斯坦福大学经济政策研究研究所（SIEPR）的经济学家估计，由于伊朗遭袭后全球油价飙升，美国家庭今年将在汽油上额外支出740美元。该研究指出，如果这一估计准确，这笔额外支出几乎会抵消人们今年预计能获得的全部退税金额。
无党派的税收基金会估计，由于去年由特朗普总统签署的共和党支持的”一揽子美好法案”（OBBBA）提供的新减税措施，个人平均退税金额将增加748美元。
据美国国税局（IRS）数据，截至本月早些时候，整体退税金额平均为3,676美元，较去年同期增长11%。
当然，美国能源价格上涨最终对个人钱包的影响取决于伊朗冲突持续的时间，更具体地说，是战略要冲霍尔木兹海峡对运送石油和液化天然气的油轮的封锁持续多久。
“火箭与羽毛”原理
SIEPR主任尼尔·马奥尼告诉CBS新闻，斯坦福研究人员对家庭额外汽油支出的计算假设海峡将关闭三周。如果紧张局势缓和，油轮早日恢复通行，消费者汽油支出的估计值将会改变。
马奥尼补充说，斯坦福的估计还反映了”火箭与羽毛”原理——即当投入成本上升时，产品价格会迅速飙升，但当这些成本下降时，价格却倾向于缓慢回落。
目前，能源成本上涨的影响显而易见。周三，波斯湾局势升级导致油价飙升，布伦特原油每桶升至近111美元，美国基准原油价格跃升至约99美元。
美国汽车协会（AAA）数据显示，周四全国平均汽油价格飙升至每加仑3.88美元，较一个月前上涨96美分。
特朗普政府一直吹捧OBBBA法案下的减税措施。新法律取消了对部分加班费和小费收入的税收，并将州和地方税（SALT）减免限额从1万美元提高到4万美元。
编辑：Alain Sherter
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/goldman-sachs-warns-spike-unemployment-slowed-economic-growth-iran-war/
Surging U.S. gas prices could erase bigger tax refunds, analysis finds
March 19, 2026 / 7:40 AM EDT / CBS News
Higher U.S. gasoline prices stemming from the Iran war could effectively wipe out the fatter tax refunds many Americans are expected to collect this year, a new analysis found.
Economists from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) estimate that the average U.S. household will spend an additional $740 on gas this year because of the jump in global oil prices following the attack on Iran. If that estimate holds true, it would gobble up nearly all of the additional money people are slated to collect in tax refunds this year, according to the research.
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that the average individual tax refund will be $748 higher this year because of new cuts provided under the Republican-backed “one, big, beautiful bill act” (OBBBA), signed into law last year by President Trump.
As of earlier this month, overall tax refunds were averaging $3,676, up 11% from the same point last year, according to the IRS.
To be sure, the eventual pocketbook hit from higher U.S. energy prices depends on how long the conflict in Iran persists and, more specifically, how long the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked to the tankers ferrying oil and liquid natural gas to global markets.
“Rockets and feathers”
The Stanford researchers’ calculation of the additional household gas expenditures assumes that the strait will remain closed for three weeks. If tensions ease and tankers start traversing the waterway sooner, estimates of how much consumers could spend on gas would change, Neale Mahoney, director of SIEPR, told CBS News.
The Stanford estimate also reflects the “rockets and feathers” principle, Mahoney added — the concept that product prices are quick to shoot up when input costs climb, but tend to drift down slowly when those same costs decline.
For now, the impact on energy costs is evident. Oil prices spiked on Wednesday amid escalating attacks in the Gulf, with Brent crude rising to nearly $111 a barrel and the U.S. benchmark jumping to roughly $99.
The national average gas price soared to $3.88 per gallon on Thursday, up 96 cents from one month ago, according to AAA data.
The Trump administration has touted tax cuts under the OBBBA. The new law eliminated taxes on some overtime and tipped income, and raised the limit on the deduction for state and local taxes, or SALT, from $10,000 to $40,000.
Edited by Alain Sherter
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/goldman-sachs-warns-spike-unemployment-slowed-economic-growth-iran-war/
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