2026年2月2日 / 美国东部时间下午12:11 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
贵金属的光芒正在褪去。上周创下历史新高的贵金属价格,在周五出现大幅抛售之后,持续下滑。
Pepperstone高级研究策略师迈克尔·布朗指出,上周金价突破每盎司5500美元,而在隔夜交易中已跌至每盎司4500美元以下。周五的跌幅是该贵金属自2013年以来最大单日跌幅。白银同样遭遇最严重单日亏损,暴跌超过31%。
截至美国东部时间上午10:30,黄金和白银价格已反弹至4779美元和81美元。
金属价格暴跌背后的原因是什么?
过去一年,由于全球地缘政治不确定性加剧和政府举债问题日益严重,投资者纷纷涌入贵金属市场,美国及其他主要经济体的债务水平持续攀升。
周五的抛售发生在特朗普总统宣布提名凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)担任美联储主席之后。尽管沃什在过去一年一直主张降息,但他通常被视为对通胀持”鹰派”立场。
华尔街分析师表示,由于消费者价格仍高于美联储每年2%的目标,这可能使沃什倾向于不采取特朗普所要求的激进降息政策。黄金价格通常(尽管并非总是)随着利率上升而下跌,因为黄金本身不产生利息,导致投资者转向股票和其他风险资产以寻求更高回报。
摩根大通分析师指出,贵金属价格的暴跌还受到美元反弹的推动。在沃什被提名为美联储主席之前,美元曾跌至四年来的最低水平。黄金和美元的价值通常呈反向走势。
摩根大通全球大宗商品研究执行董事格雷戈里·谢勒在周一与客户的电话会议中表示:”我们受到美元反弹的催化,在一定程度上是由于沃什的提名,从这个角度看,这确实是触发快速、显著去风险化的导火索……并在周五导致价格大幅回落。”
其他因素也助长了抛售。金融咨询公司deVere Group的首席执行官奈杰尔·格林表示,投资者过去一年大量借贷以利用黄金价格上涨。但一旦价格开始下滑,许多投资者面临不断上升的保证金要求——经纪公司为维持杠杆头寸设定的最低金额。
格林在电子邮件中表示:”许多投资者选择或被迫卖出,这一过程无论基本面如何都会压低价格。”
贵金属价格现在将走向何方?
华尔街对黄金和白银价格的未来走势看法不一。
格林表示:”复苏可能不会立即到来或戏剧性上演,但我们认为,一旦强制平仓阶段结束,市场机制有利于反弹而非持续自由落体。”
摩根大通分析师也认为硬资产可能会复苏。该银行在一份研究报告中上调了黄金年末目标价至6300美元。
但投资咨询公司牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的首席经济学家尼尔·谢林(Neil Shearing)在一份研究报告中表示,他预计黄金年底价格将”远低于当前水平”。
他补充道:”虽然一些市场参与者可能因对全球经济和政治背景的真正担忧而买入黄金,但我们认为市场热情和一定程度的错失恐惧(FOMO)正在使黄金泡沫膨胀。”
编辑: Alain Sherter
美联社对本报道有贡献。
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/gold-slumps-after-trump-picks-kevin-warsh-for-fed-chair/
Gold and silver prices are slumping after their meteoric rise. Here’s why.
February 2, 2026 / 12:11 PM EST / CBS News
The shine is coming off gold and silver. Prices for the precious metals, which last week soared to record highs, are extending their slide after a sharp selloff on Friday.
Gold, which topped $5,500 last week, dipped below $4,500 per ounce in overnight trading. Friday’s decline amounted to the biggest one-day drop in the shiny metal’s price since 2013, noted Pepperstone senior research strategist Michael Brown. Silver also suffered its worst daily loss, tumbling more than 31%.
As of 10:30 a.m. EDT, gold and silver had rebounded to $4,779 and $81.
What’s behind the metals meltdown?
Investors have poured into the metals in the last year amid concerns about mounting global geopolitical uncertainty and government borrowing, as debt levels across the U.S. and other major economies continue to rise.
The sell-off on Friday came after President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. Although Warsh has over the last year argued in favor of lowering interest rates, he is generally viewed as “hawkish” on inflation.
With consumer prices still running above the Fed’s annual 2% target, that could incline Warsh against the kind of aggressive rate-cutting that President Trump has demanded, according to Wall Street analysts. Gold prices often (though not always) fall as interest rates rise because holdings of the metal don’t pay interest, leading investors to rotate into stocks and other risk assets in search of higher returns.
The plunge in precious metal prices was also fueled by a rebound in the dollar, which had fallen to its lowest level in four years before Warsh was nominated as Fed chair, according to JPMorgan analysts. The values of gold and the dollar typically move in opposite directions.
“We get a catalyst of a rebound in the U.S. dollar, to some degree on the back of the nomination of Warsh, and from that perspective, that’s really the trigger that leads to very swift, significant de-risking… and the real sharp rollover into Friday,” Gregory Shearer, executive director of global commodities research at J.P. Morgan, in a call with clients on Monday.
Other factors also fed into the sell-off. Investors had borrowed heavily capitalize on the run-up in gold over the last year. But once prices began to slide, many of those same investors faced rising margin requirements, the minimum amount set by brokerage firms to maintain their leveraged position, according to Nigel Green, CEO of financial consulting firm deVere Group.
“Many chose, or were forced, to sell,” Green said in an email. “This process pushes prices lower regardless of fundamentals.”
Where are precious metal prices headed now?
On Wall Street, opinions are mixed on where gold and silver prices go from here.
“The recovery may not be immediate or dramatic, but we believe the mechanics favor a bounce rather than continued freefall once the forced phase ends,” Green said.
JPMorgan analysts also think the hard assets are likely to recover. In a research note, commodities analysts with the bank lifted their year-end target for gold to $6,300.
But Neil Shearing, group chief economist at investment advisory firm Oxford Economics, said in a research note that he expects gold to end the year “well below current levels.”
“While some market participants may be buying gold due to genuine concerns about the global economic and political backdrop, our sense is that market exuberance and a dose of FOMO are inflating a bubble in gold,” he added.
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/gold-slumps-after-trump-picks-kevin-warsh-for-fed-chair/
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