2026年3月14日 / 美国东部时间上午6:00 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
随着美国与伊朗之间的战争使石油市场陷入瘫痪，特朗普政府正考虑开展一项军事行动，为船只护航通过一个关键的海上咽喉要道——这是一项专家称可能已处于筹备阶段的庞大任务。
自两周前美国和以色列与伊朗爆发战争以来，波斯湾和阿拉伯海已报告发生超过十几起针对油轮和其他货船的袭击事件。伊朗官员公开威胁途经霍尔木兹海峡的船只，该海峡连接波斯湾与世界各大洋。
由于担心袭击，油轮几乎停止了通过霍尔木兹海峡，而该海峡输送着全球约20%的石油——其中主要是伊朗和中国的船只通过。由于石油供应无处可送，一些主要的阿拉伯石油出口国已削减产量。在过去两周内，油价因供应紧张的担忧飙升约40%。
这种中断促使特朗普总统考虑为通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只提供海军护航，希望军事保护能缓解交通拥堵。
“时机成熟时，美国海军及其合作伙伴将在必要时护送油轮通过海峡，”总统周一告诉记者，”我希望这不会成为必要，但如果需要，我们将护送它们顺利通过。”
但政府官员表示，他们尚未准备好立即开展海军护航行动。能源部长克里斯托弗·赖特本周表示，”这将相对较快发生，但现在还不可能”，并指出本月底可能是一个可行的时间线。
财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，护航行动将在”军事上可行时立即开始”。
军事专家告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，任何护送油轮通过海峡的行动——包括应对伊朗可能的水雷、导弹、无人机和载有爆炸物的”神风特攻”船只——都需要做好准备，以削弱伊朗在海上打击目标的能力。此后，可能会动用美国舰船、战机和监视能力。但这项行动并非没有风险。
护航行动需要满足哪些条件？
哥伦比亚广播公司新闻军事分析师艾伦·麦克莱恩将任何可能的油轮护航任务描述为一个两阶段行动：首先，美国需要”通过减少伊朗拥有的任何能摧毁船只的物资储备来’准备战场’”，然后在第二阶段开始护航。
这位美国海军陆战队退伍军人、前美国海军学院教员以及前阿肯色州共和党参议员汤姆·科顿的外交政策顾问麦克莱恩表示，第一阶段可能已经在进行中。
美国中央司令部称，在过去两周内，美军已打击了约6000个伊朗目标，包括反舰导弹阵地、无人机制造设施和布雷船。
麦克莱恩表示，削减伊朗的军事储备（包括其导弹、无人机、水雷和船只）在护航开始前至关重要，因为”你希望来袭的火力量足够可控，以便在发生时能够可靠拦截”。
“他们今天就能行动，但越早行动，风险越高，”麦克莱恩解释道，”如果现在就把美国海军舰艇部署到伊朗海岸线附近，局势很快就会变得紧张，风险非常高。”
战略与国际研究中心国防与安全部主任塞思·琼斯告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，美国军方可能正通过”削弱伊朗布雷和打击目标的能力”为霍尔木兹海峡的护航做准备。
“我怀疑美国海军不会贸然进入该海峡，除非它相当有信心威胁已被削弱，这主要通过空袭实现，”他说。
当被问及护航何时可能开始时，赖特本周早些时候在CNBC上暗示，特朗普政府仍处于筹备阶段。
“我们根本还没准备好。我们所有的军事资产目前都集中在摧毁伊朗的进攻能力和为其进攻能力提供支持的制造业上，”能源部长表示。
护航行动将如何运作？
麦克莱恩表示，开始在霍尔木兹海峡进行护航的合适时机是美国中央司令部需要做出的判断。
“你不能无限期等待，因为你必须让航道畅通，”他说，”所以在某个时候，他们会确定自己对风险有足够信心，然后执行护航行动。”
他解释说，护航行动可能包括海军设立集结区，在争议区域两端守卫商船——这可能仅限于霍尔木兹海峡，也可能延伸至波斯湾更深处。
“然后，就像鸭妈妈带着小鸭子一样，美国海军舰艇或伙伴国海军舰艇将一次护送几艘船通过，”他说。
麦克莱恩补充说，这些船只会得到空中掩护和监视的支持。琼斯表示，这项任务可能包括扫雷能力、对伊朗沿海威胁的空袭以及可快速应对袭击的附近快速反应部队。
麦克莱恩称，首批通过的船只可能会成为目标。
“我们知道伊朗会开火。我们要观察他们从哪里开火，然后在他们暴露后予以打击，”他说。
贝森特本周早些时候在采访中表示，护航行动可能不仅涉及美国海军，还包括”国际联盟”。麦克莱恩指出，潜在参与者可能包括法国等发达国家，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙已表示该国海军正在考虑”纯粹防御性”的护航任务。
霍尔木兹海峡是海湾国家石油运输的关键通道。贝迪尔汗·德米雷尔/阿纳多卢通讯社通过盖蒂图片社提供
伊朗具体可能对船只构成哪些威胁？
霍尔木兹海峡最窄处仅21英里宽，长期被视为伊朗在战争期间可能封锁的潜在咽喉。
麦克莱恩称，如果美国海军及其合作伙伴试图护送商船通过伊朗水域，”他们100%会向这些船只开火”。
军事和国家安全专家表示，目前伊朗武器库中对航运的潜在威胁包括水雷、反舰巡航导弹、无人机、伊朗革命卫队操作的快速攻击艇以及遥控爆炸船。
本周早些时候，美国官员告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，伊朗似乎在威胁要在海峡布雷。伊朗海军水雷的规模尚未公开，但多年来估计在2000至6000枚之间。
特朗普政府高级官员表示，目前霍尔木兹海峡似乎未被布雷。国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯周五告诉记者，目前没有伊朗布雷的证据，贝森特本周早些时候指出仍有少量船只通过海峡，表明该海峡未因水雷而无法通行。
“目前禁止海峡通行的唯一因素是伊朗对航运的射击。如果伊朗不这样做，海峡是畅通的，”赫格塞斯周五表示。
琼斯告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，伊朗没有太多大型布雷船——美国军方称在过去两周已打击了约30艘伊朗布雷船。但琼斯表示，伊朗有数百艘小型船只，每次可布雷数枚，摧毁所有这些船只将极为困难。
一些专家警告称，伊朗仍可能对航运构成严重威胁。华盛顿近东政策研究所军事和安全研究项目主任迈克尔·艾森斯塔特表示，他对油轮护航行动能否成功持怀疑态度。
艾森斯塔特指出，目前尚不清楚经过过去两周的美以空袭后，伊朗还剩多少导弹和无人机库存，但伊朗剩余的储备可能深藏于隧道中——这意味着伊朗仍可能对船只发动袭击。他还表示，20世纪80年代的一次护航行动动用了数十艘美国舰船，如果特朗普政府考虑的行动规模类似，可能会牵制美国海军舰队的很大一部分。
“你只需要六架无人机就能击中船只，然后油轮所有者会说’算了，谢谢你们，不过算了’，”艾森斯塔特告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻。
这种情况以前发生过吗？
这并非美国首次护送船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。
1987年，在两伊战争即将结束时，美国海军开始护送科威特油轮通过波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡，以抵御伊朗的水雷和导弹威胁。
“这是件大事，”麦克莱恩描述了这项涉及数十艘美国舰船的行动，”1988年，’塞缪尔·B·罗伯茨’号导弹驱逐舰被伊朗水雷击中，造成重大损坏，时任总统里根因此下令对伊朗目标发动袭击。几个月后，美国误击了一架伊朗客机，造成290人死亡，美国方面称这是’悲剧性和遗憾的意外’。”
这场战争最终以伊拉克和伊朗之间的停火结束。
麦克莱恩表示，如果美国决定在38年后再次开展护航行动，任务可能会以类似方式结束——要么停火，要么伊朗放弃。
“你基本上要继续行动，直到出现某种转折点，”他说。
Trump administration has vowed to escort oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz. How would that work?
March 14, 2026 / 6:00 AM EDT / CBS News
With oil markets paralyzed by the war between the U.S. and Iran, the Trump administration is weighing a military operation to escort ships through a vital maritime chokepoint — a massive undertaking that experts say could already be in the preparatory stages.
Since the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran began two weeks ago, more than a dozen attacks have been reported against oil tankers and other cargo ships in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Iranian officials have openly threatened ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that connects the Persian Gulf with the world’s oceans.
Fearing attacks, oil tankers have all but stopped transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around 20% of global oil — with mostly Iranian and Chinese ships making it through. And with nowhere to send their supply, some major Arab oil exporters have cut production. Over the last two weeks, oil prices have jumped around 40% amid worries about a supply crunch.
The disruption has led President Trump to consider offering naval escorts to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in the hopes that military protection could clear up the gridlock.
“When the time comes, the U.S. Navy and its partners will escort tankers through the Strait if needed,” the president told reporters Monday. “I hope it’s not going to be needed, but if it’s needed, we’ll escort them right through.”
But administration officials have suggested they aren’t prepared to start carrying out naval escorts just yet. Energy Secretary Christopher Wright said this week “it’ll happen relatively soon, but it can’t happen now,” and pointed to the end of the month as a possible timeline.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said escorts will begin “as soon as it is militarily possible.”
Military experts tell CBS News that any effort to shepherd oil tankers through the Strait — past potential Iranian mines, missiles, drones and explosive-laden “kamikaze” boats — will require preparations to cut back Iran’s ability to strike at targets at sea. After that, it could involve U.S. ships, jets and surveillance capabilities. But the operation would not be risk-free.
What needs to happen for escorts to start?
CBS News military analyst Aaron MacLean described any possible mission to escort oil tankers as a two-phase operation: First, the U.S. needs to “prepare the battlefield by reducing the stockpiles that Iran has of anything that can kill ships,” and then in a second phase, it could start carrying out escorts.
That first phase might already be underway, said MacLean, a Marine Corps veteran, former U.S. Naval Academy faculty member and former foreign policy adviser to GOP Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas.
Over the last two weeks, U.S. Central Command says it has struck around 6,000 Iranian targets, including anti-ship missile sites, drone manufacturing facilities and mine-laying ships.
Slashing Iran’s military stockpiles — including its missiles, drones, mines and boats — is important before ships are escorted, MacLean said, because “you want the amount of incoming [fire] to be manageable enough that you can reliably intercept it when it happens.”
“They could do it today, but the earlier you go, the riskier it is,” MacLean explained. “If you put U.S. Navy ships in close proximity of the Iranian coastline right now, it’s going to get real sporty real quick, and the risk is very high.”
Seth Jones, president of the defense and security department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CBS News the U.S. military is likely preparing for escorts in the Strait of Hormuz by “degrading the Iranian capabilities to lay mines and strike targets.”
“I suspect the U.S. Navy is not going to want to enter that Strait unless it’s pretty confident that the threats have been degraded, largely by the airstrikes,” he said.
Asked when escorts could begin, Wright suggested on CNBC earlier this week that the Trump administration is still in the preparatory phase.
“We’re simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities,” the energy secretary said.
How would escorting ships work?
The right time to start carrying out escorts in the Strait of Hormuz is a judgment call that U.S. Central Command would need to make, MacLean said.
“You can’t wait indefinitely because you’ve got to get that thing open,” he said. “So at some point they’re going to determine that they’re comfortable with the risk, and then they’re going to execute the convoy ops.”
He said an escort operation could involve the Navy setting up staging areas where commercial ships are guarded at either end of the contested area — which may be constrained to just the Strait of Hormuz, or could stretch further into the Persian Gulf.
“And then, like a mother duck with her little baby ducks, a U.S. Navy ship, or a ship from a partner navy, is going to escort several ships through at a time,” he said.
Those ships are likely to be supported by air cover and surveillance, added MacLean. And Jones said the mission could involve mine-sweeping capabilities, airstrikes on Iranian threats on the coasts and a nearby quick reaction force that can deal with attacks.
The first few ships to pass through might be targeted, said MacLean.
“We know the Iranians are going to shoot. We’re looking to see where they shoot from, and then we hit them once they reveal themselves,” he said.
Bessent said in an interview earlier this week that the escort operation could involve not just the U.S. Navy, but also an “international coalition.” According to MacLean, potential participants may include developed countries like France, where President Emmanuel Macron has said the country’s navy is considering a “purely defensive” mission to escort ships.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial passageway for oil shipments from Gulf states. Bedirhan Demirel/Anadolu via Getty Images
What threats could Iran pose to ships, exactly?
Just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz has long been viewed as a potential chokepoint that Iran could seek to close off during a war.
If the U.S. Navy and its partners try to escort commercial vessels past Iran, “they’re 100% going to be shooting at the ships,” MacLean said.
The potential threats to shipping traffic currently in Iran’s arsenal include naval mines, anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, fast-attack boats operated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and remote-controlled explosive boats, military and national security experts say.
Earlier this week, U.S. officials told CBS News that Iran appeared to be signaling it could lay mines in the Strait. The size of Iran’s naval mine stockpile is not publicly known, but estimates over the years have ranged from around 2,000 to 6,000.
Top Trump administration officials have said the Strait does not appear to be mined right now. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Friday there is currently no evidence of Iran laying mines, and Bessent pointed out earlier this week that a small number of ships are still traveling through the Strait, suggesting it isn’t impassable due to mines.
“The only thing prohibiting transit in the Straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping,” Hegseth said Friday. “It is open for transit, should Iran not do that.”
Jones told CBS News that Iran doesn’t have many large mine-laying ships — and the U.S. military says it has struck about 30 Iranian minelayers over the last two weeks. But Iran does have potentially hundreds of smaller boats that can lay a few mines at a time, and destroying all of them would be extremely difficult, according to Jones.
Some experts caution that Iran could still pose a serious risk to shipping. Michael Eisenstadt, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s military and security studies program, says he’s skeptical that an operation to escort oil tankers will work.
Eisenstadt noted that it isn’t clear how many Iranian missiles and drones have survived the last two weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes, but Iran’s remaining stockpiles could be hidden deep in tunnels — meaning Iran could still target ships. He also said that a prior escort operation in the 1980s involved dozens of U.S. vessels, and if the one being considered by the Trump administration is at a similar scale, it could tie up a significant portion of the Navy’s fleet.
“All you need is half a dozen drones to hit ships,” Eisenstadt told CBS News, “and then tanker owners are going to say ‘forget it, thanks guys, nice try.’”
Has it happened before?
This wouldn’t be the first time the U.S. has ferried ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
In 1987, near the end of the Iran-Iraq War, the U.S. Navy began escorting Kuwaiti tankers through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz to protect against Iranian mines and missiles.
“It was a big deal,” said MacLean, describing an operation that involved dozens of U.S. ships.
At one point in 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts struck an Iranian mine, causing significant damage and leading then-President Ronald Reagan to launch strikes against Iranian targets. Months later, the U.S. shot down an Iranian passenger plane that it mistook for a fighter jet, killing 290 people in what a U.S. report called a “tragic and regrettable accident.”
That war ended with a ceasefire between Iraq and Iran.
If the U.S. decides to carry out another escort operation some 38 years later, MacLean said the mission could end in similar fashion — either due to a ceasefire or because Iran gives up.
“You basically keep going until there’s some kind of inflection point,” he said.
发表回复