By Lucia Mutikani
2026年3月12日 下午12:40 UTC 更新于50分钟前
![行人经过美国马萨诸塞州剑桥市一家五金店门上的”招聘”标志，2022年7月8日。路透社/Brian Snyder/资料图片 购买许可权，新标签页打开]
- 摘要
- 每周失业救济申请减少1,000至213,000人
- 持续申领人数减少21,000至185万人
- 1月独栋住房开工率下降2.8%；建筑许可下降0.9%
华盛顿，3月12日（路透社） – 上周美国人申请失业救济的人数下降，表明尽管2月份美国经济裁员，但劳动力市场状况仍保持稳定，不过美以对伊朗的战争带来下行风险。
经济学家表示，目前劳工部周四发布的报告显示裁员水平较低，这应会让美联储有空间在一段时间内维持利率不变，尽管中东冲突推高油价并威胁加剧国内通胀。自战争爆发以来，汽油价格已上涨至少20%。
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牛津经济首席美国经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯(Michael Pearce)表示：”初请失业金人数低且稳定，表明2月份非农就业人数大幅下降只是暂时现象，而非趋势开始。我们认为有证据表明，在伊朗战争的影响冲击经济之前，劳动力市场状况将趋于稳定。”
截至3月7日当周，各州失业救济申请初请人数经季节性调整后减少1,000人，至213,000人。路透社调查的经济学家此前预测本周初请人数为215,000人。今年初请人数一直维持在199,000至232,000的区间内，裁员率较低。
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政府上周报告称，2月份非农就业人数减少92,000人，这是自2025年1月以来的第六次下降，也是第二大降幅。
这一下降被归咎于严冬天气、医疗保健工人罢工、1月份非农就业人数大幅增加后的回调，以及企业因进口关税不确定性和人工智能整合到部分工作岗位中而普遍犹豫增加员工数量。
美国最高法院推翻了唐纳德·特朗普总统为应对紧急状态而实施的全面关税政策。但特朗普在回应裁决时实施了10%的全球关税，并表示将提高至15%。
特朗普政府周三表示，将对16个主要贸易伙伴的过剩工业产能和强迫劳动展开两项贸易调查。
经济学家警告称，飙升的汽油价格和股市波动将抑制消费者支出，并削弱对工人的需求。美国央行预计下周将维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%区间不变。经济学家认为降息窗口正在关闭，金融市场预计今年9月仅降息一次。
美国股市下跌，油价飙升至近每桶100美元。美元兑一篮子货币升值。美国国债收益率上升。
展示汽油价格
独栋住房开工率下降
就业报告显示，截至2月28日当周，在首次申领救济后继续领取失业救济的人数（作为招聘指标）减少21,000人，经季节性调整后降至185万人。所谓的持续申领人数可能因一些人耗尽资格（大多数州资格期限为26周）而下降。
持续申领人数不包括近期大学毕业生，他们因工作经历有限或无工作经历而无法领取失业救济，从而面临长期失业。2月份失业率从1月的4.3%升至4.4%。
初请与持续申领失业救济人数
住房市场的消息令人失望。美国商务部人口普查局的另一报告显示，1月份占住房建设主体的独栋住房开工率经季节性调整后下降2.8%，年率降至935,000套。12月数据向下修正，开工率从之前估计的981,000套上调至962,000套。
该报告因去年联邦政府停摆而延迟。1月份住房建设下降可能反映了严冬天气影响：东北部独栋住房开工率暴跌33.3%，人口密集的南部地区下降4.6%。这些地区在1月份受到大雪和严寒天气的严重影响。1月份独栋住房开工率同比下降6.5%。
住房建设受到进口商品关税（包括木材和装饰柜）、移民打击导致的工人短缺以及抵押贷款利率上升的阻碍。
尽管今年抵押贷款利率下降刺激了房屋销售，但由于美国国债收益率上升，进一步下降的可能性不大。抵押贷款利率跟随基准10年期美国国债收益率波动。
房屋建筑商信心仍然低迷，表明短期内独栋新房建设不太可能显著改善。多单元住房项目（一个波动性很大的细分市场）的开工率1月份激增29.1%，年率达到524,000套。整体住房开工率上升7.2%，年率达到148.7万套，同比增长9.5%。
住房开工率与建筑许可
1月份独栋住房建设许可经季节性调整后下降0.9%，年率降至873,000套。与去年同期相比，许可减少11.6%。
包括房屋建设在内的住宅投资已连续四个季度收缩。
报道：Lucia Mutikani；编辑：Chizu Nomiyama和Andrea Ricci
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US weekly jobless claims point to stable labor market; Iran war poses a risk
By Lucia Mutikani
March 12, 2026 12:40 PM UTC Updated 50 mins ago
A pedestrian passes a “Help Wanted” sign in the door of a hardware store in Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S., July 8, 2022. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Summary
- Weekly jobless claims fall 1,000 to 213,000
- Continuing claims decrease 21,000 to 1.850 million
- Single-family housing starts drop 2.8% in January; building permits fall 0.9%
WASHINGTON, March 12 (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable even after the economy shed jobs in February, but the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran poses a downside risk.
For now, the low level of layoffs evident in the report from the Labor Department on Thursday should give the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged for some time as the conflict in the Middle East drives up oil prices and threatens to fan domestic inflation, economists said. The war has raised gasoline prices by at least 20% since it started.
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“The low and steady level of initial jobless claims suggests the big drop in nonfarm payrolls in February was a blip, not the start of a trend,” said Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “We think the evidence is consistent with labor market conditions stabilizing before the fallout of the Iran war hits the economy.”
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 for the week ended March 7. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week. Claims have been tucked in a 199,000-232,000 range this year amid low layoffs.
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The government reported last week that nonfarm payrolls decreased by 92,000 jobs in February, the sixth decline since January 2025 and the second largest.
The drop was blamed on harsh winter weather, a strike by healthcare workers and payback following outsized payroll gains in January, as well as a general hesitancy by businesses to increase headcount because of uncertainty from import tariffs and integration of artificial intelligence into some work roles.
The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies. But Trump responded to the ruling by imposing a 10% global tariff, which he said would rise to 15%.
The Trump administration said on Wednesday it was launching two trade investigations into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners and into forced labor.
Soaring gasoline prices and stock market volatility would weigh on consumer spending and undercut demand for workers, economists warned. The U.S. central bank was expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range next Wednesday. Economists see the window for rate cuts closing, with financial markets anticipating a single reduction this year in September.
U.S. stocks fell as oil prices surged to nearly $100 a barrel. The dollar advanced against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields rose.
Shows gasoline prices
SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS FALL
The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.850 million during the week ended February 28, the claims report showed. The so-called continuing claims could be declining as some people exhaust their eligibility, limited to 26 weeks in most states.
Continuing claims also do not include recent college graduates, who are experiencing long spells of unemployment, because they have limited or no work history, disqualifying them from claiming jobless benefits. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in February from 4.3% in January.
Initial and continuing jobless claims
News on the housing market was downbeat. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 935,000 units in January, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said in another report. Data for December was revised lower to show starts rebounding to a rate of 962,000 units instead of the previously estimated 981,000-unit rate.
The report was delayed by last year’s shutdown of the federal government. January’s decline in homebuilding likely reflected harsh winter weather as single-family housing starts tumbled 33.3% in the Northeast and fell 4.6% in the densely populated South. They were among the areas slammed by heavy snow and frigid temperatures in January. Single-family starts dropped 6.5% year-on-year in January.
Homebuilding has been hampered by tariffs on imported goods, including lumber and vanity cabinets, worker shortages amid an immigration crackdown and higher mortgage rates.
Though mortgage rates have declined this year, stimulating home sales, further decreases are unlikely because of the rising Treasury yields. Mortgage rates track the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.
Homebuilder sentiment has remained depressed, suggesting that new single-family home construction is unlikely to significantly improve in the near term. Starts for housing projects with five units or more, a very volatile segment, surged 29.1% to a rate of 524,000 units in January. Overall housing starts increased 7.2% to a rate of 1.487 million units. They advanced 9.5% year-on-year in January.
Housing starts and building permits
Permits for the future construction of single-family housing units fell 0.9% to a rate of 873,000 units in January. Permits decreased 11.6% from a year ago.
Residential investment, which includes homebuilding, has contracted for four straight quarters.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci
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