分析：艾伦·布莱克
1小时58分钟前
发布于2026年3月6日，美国东部时间下午5:03
南美洲 中东
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2026年3月1日，唐纳德·特朗普总统在白宫玫瑰园走下”海军陆战队一号”后
（马克·谢费尔贝因/美联社）
当第一任特朗普政府在2017年制定其国家安全战略时，民主的地位举足轻重。
当时的文件称民主是”我们珍视的东西”，并将关键盟友的民主化进程称为美国治国方略的”最伟大成就之一”，还称西半球正”站在繁荣与和平的风口浪尖，而这一切都建立在民主之上”。
而在2025年12月，第二任特朗普政府发布的相同文件中，情况发生了巨大变化。关于民主的提及减少到了四分之一，在某些情况下甚至淡化了其重要性。
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文件称，美国现在旨在与其他国家建立稳定且有益的关系，”而不向它们强加与其传统和历史大相径庭的民主或其他社会变革”。
正如《纽约时报》所指出的，这与美国几十年的外交政策形成了巨大的偏离。
这也是未来趋势的预演。
自该文件发布后的三个月内，特朗普已推翻了两个不同国家的领导人——在这两个案例中，他都获得了极大的权力来规划这些国家政府的未来。而且在这两个案例中，他对民主的漠视程度甚至超过了该文件所体现的。
在委内瑞拉，特朗普政府推翻了尼古拉斯·马杜罗，却只允许他的副手德尔西·罗德里格斯接管权力，尽管特朗普政府曾声称两人都是非法当选的。
而现在，特朗普在伊朗采取了类似的策略。
周五，当被美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的达娜·巴什问及是否坚持要伊朗实现民主时，特朗普直言不讳地说：”不，我是说必须有一位公正的领导人。”
他说：”这将像在委内瑞拉那样运作”——也就是说，领导人不是由人民选出，而是部分由美国决定。他甚至表示，在最初的打击中被杀死的最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊可能会被另一位宗教领袖取代。
“我与许多宗教领袖打过交道，他们都非常出色，”特朗普补充道。
就在两个月前，特朗普还在社交媒体上为抗议者加油助威，暗示会发生一场民众革命。”伊朗爱国者们，继续抗议——接管你们的机构！！！… 帮助正在路上，”他在社交媒体上写道。
而现在，他却说这些人可能只需要接受由他选定的可接受候选人，继续领导一个伊斯兰神权国家。
（特朗普在过去一周还提出了伊朗人民仍可能推翻政府的可能性，但最近他更专注于为伊朗人民挑选一位领导人。）
当然，这一切本不应令人过于惊讶。多年来，特朗普一直表现出对民主相对较少的尊重，而且似乎更倾向于、也更尊重强人领袖。
在去年他2016年竞选活动十周年之际，我曾写道，他最大的政治影响之一就是让他的政党放弃了里根主义——他淡化了民主和道德等崇高理想，转而推崇一种更具马基雅维利主义色彩的政治。
在他的第二个任期内，他一直试图强行突破对自己权力的民主限制，同时利用他的影响力塑造一个更加交易化的政府。
从这个角度来看，他更喜欢温顺的独裁者而非改革者和选举，这是符合逻辑的。
但亲眼目睹这一切的实际发生仍然令人震惊。
你可能会理解，不希望在伊朗走民主建设的道路，因为历史表明这将非常困难，而且可能需要大量的美国军队和资源投入。
但事实上，委内瑞拉在20世纪后半叶曾有过稳定的民主制度——而特朗普政府在南美地区的第一个任期曾保证该国正处于”繁荣民主未来”的风口浪尖。
然而，就在特朗普开始他新发现的对外干预主义之后不久，他就明确表示，这并非旨在推广民主的项目——如果民主还算是目标的话。
在马杜罗倒台后，委内瑞拉反对派领袖玛丽亚·科里娜·马查多宣布：”委内瑞拉人，自由的时刻已经到来。”
但特朗普却出人意料地拒绝了扶持马查多或他认为是2024年选举合法获胜者的埃德蒙多·冈萨雷斯·乌鲁蒂亚的提议。
“她在国内没有得到支持，也不被国内人尊重，”特朗普谈到马查多时这样说道。
本周晚些时候被问及他的目标更多是稳定还是民主时，特朗普表示稳定是首要任务，而民主会随之而来。
“我不知道，”特朗普说。”对我来说，这几乎是一回事。我们想要稳定，但我们确实也想要民主。最终，它会走向民主。”
随后，《纽约时报》的一篇采访实录中出现了一个极具启发性的场景。
《纽约时报》问特朗普何时希望让委内瑞拉重回民主轨道，特朗普却回避了这个问题，转而谈论抓捕马杜罗任务的成功。
《纽约时报》再次追问。
就在这时，一名工作人员带着特朗普梦寐以求的、正在建设中的白宫宴会厅模型走了进来。
“我热爱民主，我是它的忠实粉丝，”特朗普向大家保证。
但随后他就被房间里突然出现的这个闪亮的新物件分散了注意力——毕竟，这显然比委内瑞拉重新夺回民主传统的前景更能引起他的兴趣。
“在我谈论民主之前，让我先展示一下这个，”特朗普说。
他再也没有谈及民主。而现在，在他推翻了另一个国家领导人之后，他仍然没有真正谈论这个话题。
南美洲 中东
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As Trump takes out world leaders, democracy takes a back seat
Analysis by Aaron Blake
1 hr 58 min ago
PUBLISHED Mar 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
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President Donald Trump in the Rose Garden White House after stepping off Marine One, on March 1, 2026
Mark Schiefelbein/AP
When the first Trump administration authored its national security strategy in 2017, democracy figured prominently.
It labeled democracy something that “we hold dear.” It said the democratization of key allies was one of the “greatest triumphs of American statecraft.” It said the Western Hemisphere stood “on the cusp of prosperity and peace, built upon democracy.”
When the second Trump administration released the same document in December, much had changed. Democracy got about one-quarter of the mentions – in some cases actually to downplay its importance.
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The United States now aimed to build stable and beneficial relationships with other countries, it said, “without imposing on them democratic or other social change that differs widely from their traditions and histories.”
It was, as The New York Times noted, a massive departure from decades of American foreign policy.
And it was a preview of things to come.
Trump has now taken out the leaders of two different countries in the three months since that document was released – in both cases giving him great power to chart the future of those countries’ governments. And in both cases, he’s been arguably even more dismissive of democracy than the document was.
In Venezuela, the Trump administration removed Nicolás Maduro only to allow his deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, take control. This despite the Trump administration having said both of them were illegitimately elected.
And now, Trump is taking much the same tack in Iran.
Asked Friday by CNN’s Dana Bash whether he was insisting on a democratic Iran, Trump said flatly: “No, I’m saying there has to be a leader that’s going be fair and just.”
Women hold pictures of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as they mourn in Kerman, Iran, on March 1, 2026.
Qasem/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images
He said, “It’s going to work like did in Venezuela” – i.e. a leader being picked not by the people, but in part by the US. He even allowed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the initial strikes, could be replaced with another religious leader.
“I deal with a lot of religious leaders, and they are fantastic,” Trump added.
Just two months ago, Trump was cheering on protesters and suggesting a popular revolution. “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!… HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” he posted on social media.
Now he’s saying those people might just have to deal with an acceptable candidate effectively chosen by him to continue leading an Islamic theocracy.
(Trump has also in the past week floated scenarios in which the Iranian people would still overthrow their government, but he’s lately focused more on picking a leader for them.)
None of it should be terribly surprising, of course. For years, Trump has demonstrated relatively little regard for democracy and often seemed to have a more affinity with and respect for strongman leaders.
Upon the 10-year anniversary of his 2016 campaign launch last year, I wrote that one of his biggest political impacts was getting his party to abandon Reaganism – how he deemphasized high-minded ideals like democracy and morality, in favor of a more Machiavellian brand of politics.
And in his second term, he’s consistently sought to bulldoze democratic limits on his own power while using his bully pulpit to craft a much more transactional administration.
In that respect, it tracks that he would prefer pliable autocrats to reformers and elections.
But it’s also stunning to see it in practice.
You could understand not wanting to go the democracy-building route in Iran, where history suggests it would be very difficult and likely require a significant investment of US troops and resources.
Captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores are escorted as they head toward the Daniel Patrick Moynihan United States Courthouse in Manhattan, on January 5, 2026.
Adam Gray/Reuters
But Venezuela has already had a stable democracy – for much of the latter half of the 20th century, in fact – and it’s in the region that the first Trump administration assured was on the “cusp” of a prosperous, democratic future.
Yet very shortly after Trump launched into his newfound foreign interventionism, he made clear this was not a project aimed at spreading democracy – if democracy was even a goal at all.
After Maduro’s removal, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado declared: “Venezuelans, the hour of freedom has arrived.”
Then Trump shocked many by dismissing the notion of installing Machado or the opposition leader that the Trump administration regards as the legitimate winner of the 2024 election, Edmundo González Urrutia.
“She doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country,” Trump said of Machado.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado looks on during a press conference with members of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, on Capitol Hill on January 20, 2026.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
Asked later that week whether his goal was more about stability or democracy, Trump suggested stability was the first priority, and democracy would flow from there.
“I don’t know,” Trump said. “To me, it’s almost the same thing. We want stability, but we do want democracy. Ultimately, it will be democracy.”
Then came a very telling scene in a New York Times transcript of an interview with Trump.
The Times asked Trump when he wanted to put Venezuela back on democratic course. Trump ignored the question, instead talking about the success of the mission to capture Maduro.
Then the Times asked again.
But just then, a staff member walked in with a model of Trump’s coveted and under-construction White House ballroom.
“I love democracy. I’m a big fan,” Trump assured.
But then he got distracted by the shiny object that had just entered the room. This, after all, was something that clearly interested him more than the prospect of Venezuela recapturing its democratic tradition.
“Let me show this before we talk about – wait – before I talk about democracy,” Trump said.
He never did talk about democracy again. And now that he’s taken down the leader of another country, he’s still not really talking about it.
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