2026年3月5日 / 美国东部时间下午4:49 / CBS新闻
周四，受伊朗战争引发的新一轮通胀担忧影响，抵押贷款利率小幅上升。
房利美(Freddie Mac)的最新数据显示，30年期固定利率抵押贷款的全国平均利率升至6%，较上周的5.98%略有上升，这是自2022年9月以来的最低水平。住房贷款成本仍远低于一年前的高点6.6%。
不过，专家表示，即使小幅升至6%也可能劝退部分购房者。
“0.02个百分点不会决定任何人是否有能力购房，”NerdWallet的贷款专家凯特·伍德(Kate Wood)表示，“但在心理层面……这感觉像是个巨大的障碍。”
通胀担忧动摇债券市场
抵押贷款利率往往与债券市场（尤其是10年期美国国债收益率）走势一致。但伊朗战争正推高全球油价，引发美国通胀上升的担忧。反过来，这促使债券收益率上升，因为投资者要求更高的回报。
伍德指出，尽管债券通常被视为安全投资，但在经济不确定性加剧的情况下，投资者可能会转向货币市场基金等更稳定的资产。
根据布鲁金斯学会的数据，历史上，固定抵押贷款利率通常比国债收益率高出约1至2个百分点。
周四下午，10年期美国国债收益率达到4.14%，较2月27日（美国和以色列开始对伊朗采取军事行动的前一天）的3.96%有所上升。
汽油价格上涨26美分
由于通过具有战略重要性的霍尔木兹海峡的原油运输停滞，全球石油供应出现短缺，油价大幅上涨。GasBuddy的石油专家帕特里克·德汉(Patrick De Haan)周四告诉CBS新闻，由于连接波斯湾、阿曼湾和阿拉伯海的海峡油轮运输放缓，全球每天约减少2000万桶石油供应。
跟踪燃料价格的GasBuddy称，美国汽油价格自上周以来每加仑上涨了26美分。截至周四，普通汽油的平均价格为每加仑3.25美元，为2025年4月以来的最高水平。
通胀压力的影响远超债券市场。更高的消费者价格可能会阻止美联储降低基准利率，甚至促使其加息。美联储的利率决定不会直接影响抵押贷款利率，但会影响更广泛的借贷环境。
伍德表示，如果石油供应中断加剧通胀，抵押贷款利率可能在未来几周进一步上升。“我不一定认为我们会看到更高的利率，但我肯定不会感到惊讶，”她说。
由Alain Sherter编辑
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/white-house-insists-iran-war-wont-impact-us-economy-but-gas-prices-are-soaring/
Iran war hits housing market as mortgage rates rise to 6% on inflation fears
March 5, 2026 / 4:49 PM EST / CBS News
Mortgage rates are edging up on Thursday amid renewed inflation fears tied to the war in Iran.
The average national rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6%, up modestly from 5.98% last week, the lowest since September 2022, according to new data from Freddie Mac. Home loan costs remain far lower than a year ago, when they topped 6.6%.
Still, experts said even an incremental rise to 6% could deter some buyers.
“Two hundredths of a percentage point is not making or breaking anyone’s ability to buy a home,” said Kate Wood, a lending expert at NerdWallet. “But psychologically… this feels huge.”
Inflation fears rattle bond market
Mortgage rates tend to move in tandem with the bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury note. But the Iran war is driving up global oil prices, fanning concerns about rising inflation in the U.S. In turn, that is boosting bond yields as investors demand higher returns.
While bonds are normally considered a safe investment, Wood said investors are likely shifting money to even more stable assets like money market funds amid heightened economic uncertainty.
Historically, fixed mortgage rates have run roughly one to two percentage points higher than Treasury yields, according to the Brookings Institution.
The 10-year Treasury note reached 4.14% on Thursday afternoon, up from 3.96% on February 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel began military operations against Iran.
Gas prices up 26 cents
Oil prices have jumped as crude shipments passing through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz stall, creating shortfalls in global supply. Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy, told CBS News on Thursday that the world is now losing access to around 20 million barrels of oil a day due to a slowdown in tanker traffic in the strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
U.S. gasoline prices have climbed 26 cents a gallon since last week, according to GasBuddy, which tracks fuel prices. As of Thursday, the average cost of a gallon of regular gas was $3.25, the highest level since April 2025.
Inflationary pressures carry implications beyond the bond market. Higher consumer prices could discourage the Federal Reserve from lowering its benchmark interest rate, or even spur it to raise rates. The central bank’s rate decisions do not directly impact mortgage rates, but do affect the broader lending environment.
Wood said mortgage rates could rise more in the coming weeks if the disruption in oil supplies lifts inflation. “I wouldn’t necessarily say we’re likely to see higher rates, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised,” she said.
Edited by Alain Sherter
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/white-house-insists-iran-war-wont-impact-us-economy-but-gas-prices-are-soaring/
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