德克萨斯州初选定于周二举行，投票将于上午开始，结果预计在当晚晚些时候或周三早些时候公布。
Kalshi的市场数据显示，交易员认为塔拉利科获得民主党参议院提名的概率为75%，领先同为德克萨斯州民主党议员的贾丝明·克罗克特49个百分点。
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36岁的塔拉利科是2018年首次当选的德克萨斯州众议员，他在党内定位为进步派声音，并已成为孤星之州崛起的民主党人物。
[预测市场看好2025年纽约、新泽西、弗吉尼亚州选举中的民主党]
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交易员押注德克萨斯州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉利科将赢得民主党参议院提名。(Kalshi)
交易量（即该市场下注的总金额）略高于520万美元。虽然这些市场的赔率不构成正式预测，但它们确实提供了交易员预期的实时快照。
尽管民主党似乎在支持塔拉利科，但共和党初选的情况更为激烈，交易员压倒性地支持帕克斯顿，而非资深参议员约翰·科宁。
交易员认为帕克斯顿获得共和党提名的概率为81%，领先科宁63个百分点。该市场的下注金额约为220万美元。
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交易员押注德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿将赢得共和党参议院提名。(Kalshi)
帕克斯顿是一位保守派激进分子，长期以来一直是唐纳德·特朗普总统的盟友，已担任该州总检察长近十年。科宁自2002年起代表德克萨斯州进入参议院。
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至于11月的大选，预测市场认为共和党占优。即使塔拉利科在民主党竞选中领先，交易员似乎仍认为共和党在全州范围内仍更具优势。
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Kalshi上关于11月哪个政党将赢得德克萨斯州参议院席位的投注截图。(Kalshi)
Kalshi的交易员认为，塔拉利科与帕克斯顿的对决中，帕克斯顿将赢得参议院席位。
德克萨斯州已有三十多年没有选举民主党人进入美国参议院。
这些赔率是否成立将取决于未来几个月选民的反应，但目前预测市场表明德克萨斯州仍由共和党掌控。
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are signaling growing confidence that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico are on track to secure their parties’ Senate nominations.
The Texas primary election is scheduled for Tuesday, with voting opening in the morning and results expected later that night or early Wednesday.
Kalshi’s market data shows traders assigning Talarico a 75% probability of securing the Democratic Senate nomination, a 49-point advantage over fellow Texas Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
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Talarico, 36, is a Texas state representative first elected in 2018, has positioned himself as a progressive voice within the party and has emerged as a rising Democratic figure in the Lone Star State.
[PREDICTION MARKETS FAVOR DEMOCRATS IN NEW YORK, NEW JERSEY, VIRGINIA IN 2025 ELECTION RACES]
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Traders wager that Texas state Rep. James Talarico will win the Democratic Senate nomination.(Kalshi)
Trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, stands at just over $5.2 million. While odds on these markets don’t serve as formal forecasts, they do provide a real-time snapshot of trader expectations.
While Democrats appear to be consolidating behind Talarico, the Republican primary has taken a sharper turn, with traders overwhelmingly backing Paxton over longtime Sen. John Cornyn.
Traders assign Paxton an 81% probability of securing the GOP nomination, a 63-point lead over Cornyn. About $2.2 million has been wagered on this market.
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Traders wager that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will win the Republican Senate nomination.(Kalshi)
Paxton, a conservative firebrand and longtime ally of President Donald Trump, has served as the state’s attorney general for nearly a decade. Cornyn has represented Texas in the Senate since 2002.
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When it comes to the general election in November, prediction markets give the Republican Party an edge. Even with Talarico leading the Democratic field, traders appear to believe the GOP remains better positioned statewide.
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A screenshot of a Kalshi bet on which party will win the Texas Senate contest in November.(Kalshi)
Kalshi traders see a Talarico and Paxton contest with Paxton winning the Senate seat.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than three decades.
Whether those odds hold will depend on how voters respond in the months ahead, but for now, prediction markets suggest Texas remains in Republican hands.
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