2026年3月1日 / 美国东部时间晚上7:03 / CBS/美联社
周日晚间市场交易开始时，油价大幅上涨，此前美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击，伊朗随后对以色列及海湾地区美军设施展开报复性打击，全球能源供应链因此受到干扰。
交易员们押注伊朗及中东其他地区的石油供应将会放缓或停滞。该地区的袭击事件，包括对两艘途经波斯湾狭窄入口霍尔木兹海峡的船只的袭击，可能会限制各国向世界其他地区出口石油的能力。能源专家表示，这可能导致原油和汽油价格上涨。
美国产轻质低硫原油西德克萨斯 Intermediate（WTI）周日晚间每桶售价约72美元，较周五约67美元的交易价格上涨约8%。
Rystad Energy称，全球每天约有1500万桶原油——约占全球石油总量的20%——通过霍尔木兹海峡运输，使其成为全球最关键的石油咽喉要道。途经该海峡的油轮（其北部与伊朗接壤）运载着来自沙特阿拉伯、科威特、伊拉克、卡塔尔、巴林、阿联酋和伊朗的石油和天然气。
该图显示了波斯湾、霍尔木兹海峡及周边国家。霍尔木兹海峡是海湾国家石油运输的关键通道。
伊朗在2月中旬曾因所谓军事演习暂时关闭部分海峡。对该航运通道的进一步干扰可能导致石油供应减少，油价上涨。
该地区的袭击事件，包括对两艘途经波斯湾狭窄入口霍尔木兹海峡的船只的袭击，可能会限制各国向世界其他地区出口石油的能力。能源专家表示，这可能导致原油和汽油价格上涨。
“这其实是一个简单的供需经济问题，”哥伦比亚广播公司新闻《MoneyWatch》记者、《CBS周六早间新闻》联合主持人凯利·奥格雷迪表示。“如果你通过切断霍尔木兹海峡并阻止石油通过，从而减少全球供应，你就会看到价格飙升。”
在此背景下，属于OPEC+石油联盟的八个国家周日宣布将提高原油产量。石油输出国组织（OPEC）在战争爆发前计划的会议上表示，4月将把日产量提高20.6万桶，超出分析师预期。增产国家包括沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼。
Rystad高级副总裁兼地缘政治分析主管豪尔赫·莱昂在电子邮件中表示：“全球约五分之一的石油供应通过霍尔木兹海峡，这是世界贸易的重要动脉，这意味着市场更关注的是石油能否运输，而非纸上的闲置产能。如果海湾地区的石油流动受到限制，额外增产将无法立即提供多少缓解，因此获得出口路线的通道远比表面的产量目标重要。”
伊朗每天约出口160万桶石油，主要销往中国。如果伊朗的出口受到干扰，中国可能需要寻找其他供应来源，这也是可能推高能源价格的另一个因素。
奥格雷迪指出，任何封锁霍尔木兹海峡的行动对伊朗来说都是自我毁灭的。
“要记住，伊朗的收入主要来自于它愿意卖给中国等国家的石油，而这些国家会购买那些受制裁的石油。因此，如果伊朗切断对其他国家和其他买家的供应，也就是在自我伤害，”她表示。
“当然，这对伊朗来说是一个生死存亡的时刻。他们可能会选择这样做。但我接触的所有人都说，这是一种不太可能出现的极端情况。但你会看到的是航运公司会说，‘我只是不想走那里’，或者保险公司会提高石油运输保险的价格。所有这些因素都会传导到油价上。”
“现在，伊朗的收入主要来自于它愿意卖给中国等国家的石油，而这些国家会购买那些受制裁的石油。因此，如果伊朗切断对其他国家和其他买家的供应，也就是在自我伤害，”她表示。
“当然，这对伊朗来说是一个生死存亡的时刻。他们可能会选择这样做。但我接触的所有人都说，这是一种不太可能出现的极端情况。但你会看到的是航运公司会说，‘我只是不想走那里’，或者保险公司会提高石油运输保险的价格。所有这些因素都会传导到油价上。”
Oil prices rise sharply in market trading after U.S.-Iran attacks disrupt global supply
March 1, 2026 / 7:03 PM EST / CBS/AP
Oil prices rose sharply when market trading began late Sunday, as U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and retaliatory strikes against Israel and U.S. military installations around the Gulf sent disruptions through the global energy supply chain.
Traders were betting the supply of oil from Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East would slow or grind to a halt. Attacks throughout the region, including on two vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, could restrict countries’ ability to export oil to the rest of the world. That would likely result in higher prices for crude oil and gasoline, according to energy experts.
West Texas Intermediate, the light, sweet crude oil produced in the United States, was selling for about $72 a barrel Sunday night, up around 8% from its trading price of about $67 on Friday.
Roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil per day — about 20% of the world’s oil — are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, making it the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, according to Rystad Energy. Tankers traveling through the strait, which is bordered in the north by Iran, carry oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Iran.
Map shows the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding countries. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial passageway for oil shipments from Gulf states. Bedirhan Demirel/Anadolu via Getty Images
Iran had temporarily shut down parts of the strait in mid-February for what it said was a military drill. Further disruptions to that shipping channel could lead to lower supply and higher prices for oil.
Attacks throughout the region, including on two vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, could restrict countries’ ability to export oil to the rest of the world. That would likely result in higher prices for crude oil and gasoline, according to energy experts.
“It’s a really supply-and-demand, simple economics equation,” sad CBS News MoneyWatch correspondent and “CBS Saturday Morning” co-host Kelly O’Grady. “If you were to decrease the global supply by cutting off the Strait of Hormuz and preventing that oil that flows through, you would see prices spike.”
Against that backdrop, eight countries that are part of the OPEC+ oil cartel announced they would boost production of crude Sunday. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a meeting planned before the war began, said it would increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, which was more than analysts had been expecting. The countries boosting output include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
“Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for world trade, meaning markets are more concerned with whether barrels can move than with spare capacity on paper,” said Jorge León, Rystad’s senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis, in an email. “If flows through the Gulf are constrained, additional production will provide limited immediate relief, making access to export routes far more important than headline output targets.”
Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China, which may need to look elsewhere for supply if Iran’s exports are disrupted, another factor that could increase energy prices.
O’Grady noted that any action to block the Strait of Hormuz would be self-destructive for Iran.
“Remember, Iran’s revenue mainly comes from the oil that it is willing to sell to countries like China that will buy that sanctioned oil. And so if they cut that off for other countries and other buyers, they’re also doing that to themselves,” she said.
“Now of course, this is an existential moment for Iran. They might choose to go forward with that. But everyone that I’m talking to is saying that is an unlikely, extreme scenario. But what you will see is shipping companies say, ‘I just don’t want to go through there,’ or insurers, which will hike up the price to insure that oil. And all of those things do flow down to the price of oil.”
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