2026年3月1日 美国东部时间晚上9:56 / 路透社
（图片：2022年10月19日，美国宾夕法尼亚州普莱恩斯的一家加油站，Sheetz的顾客正在加油。路透社/艾米·迪尔格）
纽约，3月1日（路透社）- 分析师称，由于美国与主要产油国伊朗之间的冲突中断了全球石油供应，美国零售汽油平均价格周一有望突破每加仑3美元，这是三个多月以来首次达到这一水平。
对于即将迎来11月中期选举的唐纳德·特朗普总统及其共和党而言，这可能是一个重大风险，因为物价通胀仍是选民的主要关切。特朗普自去年重返白宫以来，多次（且常常是错误地）声称自己降低了汽油价格。
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根据零售价格追踪机构GasBuddy的分析师帕特里克·德汉恩（Patrick De Haan）的数据，今年平均油价可能在周一首次超过每加仑3美元。GasBuddy的数据显示，全国油价上一次突破3美元是在2025年11月。2月份油价曾低至每加仑2.85美元。
“石油价格将率先上涨，汽油价格随后跟进——但会逐步上涨，”德汉恩在伊朗遇袭后的一篇博客文章中表示。
伊朗是世界主要石油供应国之一，其政府表示，在美以空袭导致其最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊遇袭身亡后，已关闭霍尔木兹海峡的航运。
霍尔木兹海峡是中东海湾的关键航道，全球约五分之一的石油通过油轮经此运输。该地区至少有三艘油轮受损，主要航运公司已表示将避开该海峡。
受局势升级影响，全球基准布伦特原油价格周日盘后飙升10%，达到约每桶80美元，一些分析师预测，随着中东陷入新的战争，布伦特原油可能触及每桶100美元。
能源咨询公司Rapidan Energy Group总裁鲍勃·麦克纳利（Bob McNally）表示，目前白宫似乎愿意为追求其外交政策目标而接受油价上涨带来的政治风险。
“他们清楚地认识到风险，我预计他们将专注于缩短伊朗控制霍尔木兹海峡能源流通的时间，”麦克纳利说。
麦克纳利称，白宫也可能表示愿意释放美国战略石油储备（SPR）中的石油，以防止油价过高。
前美国总统乔·拜登在2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，曾授权历史性地大量释放战略石油储备以应对油价飙升，这一举措遭到特朗普和其他共和党人的严厉批评。
白宫未立即回应置评请求。
季节性需求
德汉恩表示，在美国对伊朗发动袭击之前，美国汽油价格已开始小幅上涨，因为炼油厂近几周开始生产成本更高的夏季标准燃料，这是为了满足环境法规在温暖天气下减少空气污染的要求。
美国汽油需求在夏季假期期间也往往达到峰值。
“如果波斯湾局势平静，我们原本预计油价会升至每加仑3.10至3.25美元。但现在局势变化，油价将很快达到这一水平，过去48小时的行动让更高的价格成为可能，”燃油供应商Gulf的高级顾问汤姆·克洛扎（Tom Kloza）表示。
他表示，每桶原油价格每上涨5美元，汽油和柴油价格应上涨约12美分，但一些供应商已将批发价格提高了每加仑高达25美分。
油价上涨扭转了自去年年中以来持续数月的下跌趋势，此前价格下跌主要是由于库存水平高企和需求增长疲软。这些高库存水平可能会缓冲全球市场的混乱，并缓和当前的价格飙升。
根据最新可用的政府数据，截至2月20日，美国汽油库存为2.548亿桶，接近新冠疫情以来的最高水平。这些库存相当于30天的供应量。
“我预计今晚（油价）会有很大波动，但市场可能在最初的剧烈波动后开始稍微稳定下来，”德汉恩表示。
沙里夫·汗（Shariq Khan）在纽约报道；理查德·瓦尔德曼尼斯（Richard Valdmanis）编辑
我们的标准：汤森路透信托原则
US gasoline prices to rise after attack on Iran, analysts warn
March 1, 2026 9:56 PM UTC / Reuters
节点运行失败
A Sheetz customer gets gasoline at a gas station in Plains, Pennsylvania, U.S. October 19, 2022. REUTERS/Aimee Dilger
NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) – U.S. average retail gasoline prices are set to break above $3 a gallon on Monday for the first time in more than three months as the conflict between the United States and major oil producer Iran interrupts global oil flows, analysts said.
That’s potentially a major risk for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party leading into November’s midterm elections as price inflation remains a key concern for voters. Trump has repeatedly – and often falsely – claimed credit for lowering gasoline prices since returning to office last year.
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Average pump prices could surpass $3 per gallon on Monday for the first time this year, according to Patrick De Haan, an analyst at retail price tracker GasBuddy. Prices last broke above $3 nationwide in November 2025, according to GasBuddy data. They were as low as $2.85 a gallon in February.
“Oil will move first. Gasoline will follow — but gradually,” De Haan said in a blog post after the strikes on Iran.
Iran is one of the world’s top oil suppliers and its government has said it has closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli air strikes that killed its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Hormuz is a critical chokepoint in the Middle East Gulf through which around a fifth of the world’s oil flows by tanker. At least three tankers have been damaged in the region, and major shippers have said they will avoid the strait.
Global benchmark Brent crude jumped 10% to about $80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday on the escalating impacts, and some analysts are predicting Brent could touch $100 as the Middle East plunges into a new war.
So far, the White House appears to be willing to accept the political risks from higher oil prices to pursue its foreign policy objectives, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, an energy consultancy.
“Their eyes are wide open to the risk, and I expect they will focus on shortening the amount of time Iran has to control the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz,” McNally said.
The White House could also signal a willingness to release oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to prevent prices from going too high, McNally said.
Former U.S. President Joe Biden had authorized a historic drawdown of the SPR in 2022 to address surging prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a move that Trump and other Republicans have sharply criticized.
The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
SEASONAL DEMAND
Gasoline prices in the United States were already ticking higher prior to the U.S. attack on Iran as refiners in recent weeks began making a costlier summer-grade fuel, mandated by environmental regulations to reduce air pollution in warmer weather, De Haan said.
Demand for gasoline also tends to peak in the United States during the summer vacation season.
“We were all set to rise to $3.10-$3.25 a gallon with a peaceful Persian Gulf. We’ll now get there very quickly and the action of the last 48 hours puts higher numbers in play,” said Tom Kloza, senior adviser for fuel supplier Gulf.
He said a $5 per barrel increase for crude should result in an increase of about 12 cents per gallon for gasoline and diesel, but that some suppliers had already pushed up wholesale prices by as much as 25 cents a gallon.
The rising prices represent a reversal of months’ worth of declines since the middle of last year driven mainly by high inventory levels and slack demand growth. Those big stockpile levels could provide a buffer to global market disruptions and temper the current price spikes.
U.S. gasoline stocks stood at 254.8 million barrels as of February 20, near the highest they have been since the coronavirus pandemic, according to the latest available government data. Those stocks represent 30 days’ of supply.
“I expect a lot of (price) volatility tonight, but markets will likely start to settle down a bit after the first furious hour,” De Haan said.
Reporting by Shariq Khan in New York; editing by Richard Valdmanis
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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