2026年2月24日 晚上7:53 UTC / 路透社
摘要
- 投资者担心特朗普的演讲可能加剧市场焦虑
- 潜在议题包括伊朗、关税和美联储治理
- 特朗普关注的”可负担性”问题可能影响债券市场和信用卡利率
罗德岛普罗维登斯/纽约，2月24日（路透社） – 总统唐纳德·特朗普周二晚间发表的国情咨文演讲正值投资者面临的关键时刻，近几个月市场动荡让他们饱受冲击，亟需稳定。
在最高法院推翻特朗普紧急权力关税政策几天后，市场参与者正准备应对可能涉及贸易、可负担性和伊朗等方面的政策内容，这些都可能对市场产生重大影响。
《Breakingviews周刊》提供路透社全球金融评论团队的见解和观点。点击此处订阅。
特朗普第二任期内的股市波动，投资者对共和党推动重塑美国贸易关系的反应持续影响市场。
尽管自2025年1月特朗普就职以来的400天里，标准普尔500指数上涨了13%，但2026年该基准指数几乎未涨，华尔街落后于国际股市，美元汇率接近2022年低点。
“正如美国东北部的冬季风暴增加了道路积雪一样，我担心这次演讲只会加剧市场的焦虑水平，”CFRA首席投资策略师山姆·斯托瓦尔表示。他补充说，今年拥挤的政策议程”让一切都变得不那么可预测”。
总统任期前400天的标准普尔500指数表现
斯托瓦尔和其他市场参与者指出，历史上国情咨文演讲对金融市场影响甚微，因为这类演讲往往是现任总统吹嘘成就、阐述广泛政策议程的场合。但他们警告称，特朗普可能会提出从为对伊朗军事行动辩护到主张比已宣布的更激进的替代关税等各种举措。
安吉利斯投资公司首席投资官迈克尔·罗森指出，总统政策议程上有一长串问题，如果他谈及这些，可能会撼动金融市场。这些问题包括伊朗等政治优先事项（任何最后通牒都可能导致原油价格大幅上涨），以及美联储治理问题。
白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在给路透社的声明中表示，总统计划利用这次演讲展示政府的成就。她称，特朗普还将阐述”一项雄心勃勃的议程，以继续为劳动人民带回美国梦”。
可负担性问题迫在眉睫
这一议程的一部分可能涉及解决可负担性问题，市场参与者预计这将是11月中期国会选举中选民关注的热点议题。总统此前宣称战胜了通货膨胀，同时提出解决住房成本高昂的措施。
他还可能在演讲中谈到政府推出”特朗普账户”的计划，即政府支持的婴儿投资账户，作为这一可负担性重点的一部分。
Facet首席投资官汤姆·格拉夫表示：”他可能会提出其他关于抵押贷款可负担性的想法，这可能影响债券市场。还有提议将信用卡利率上限设为10%，可能会有新的细节，这无疑受到华尔街的密切关注。”
罗森称，如果有在中期选举前向纳税人发放刺激支票的计划，将引发对赤字水平上升的担忧，并推高债券收益率。
即使特朗普在演讲中进行胜利巡游，正如Beacon政策顾问周一发布的客户报告所示，投资者表示这种做法可能无法安抚市场，尤其是如果正如Beacon分析师所暗示的那样，他坚持继续依靠行政行动实施政策。
“这是过去一年造成如此多混乱、困惑和不确定性的根源，2026年如果再这样做，会让很多人感到恐慌，”斯托瓦尔说。
报道：苏赞恩·麦吉，补充报道：诺埃尔·兰德维奇；编辑：梅根·戴维斯、罗德·尼克
我们的标准：路透社信托原则
Investors brace for a State of the Union speech that may fuel anxiety
February 24, 2026 7:53 PM UTC / Reuters
Summary
- Investors fear Trump’s speech may increase market anxiety
- Potential topics include Iran, tariffs, and Federal Reserve governance
- Trump’s affordability focus may affect bond market and credit card rates
PROVIDENCE, Rhode Island/NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) – The State of the Union speech from President Donald Trump on Tuesday evening comes at a pivotal point for investors, sideswiped by market turbulence in recent months and craving stability.
Days after the Supreme Court overturned Trump’s emergency-powers tariffs, market participants are preparing for a speech that could touch on potentially market-moving policies, from trade to affordability to Iran.
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The stock market during Trump’s second term has been volatile as investors react to the Republican’s push to overhaul U.S. trade relationships.
While the S&P 500 has gained 13% in the 400 days since Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, the benchmark has barely increased in 2026 as Wall Street lags international stock markets and the dollar trades near 2022 lows.
“Just as the winter storms in the Northeast have been adding to the piles of snow on the roads, I’m afraid that this speech is just going to add to the levels of anxiety in the market,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. This year, he adds, the crowded policy agenda “makes everything a little less predictable.”
S&P 500 in first 400 days of presidential terms
State of the Union speeches have historically had little impact on financial markets, Stovall and other market participants noted, given that they tend to serve as occasions for incumbent presidents to trumpet their achievements and lay out broad policy agendas. But they caution that Trump could do everything from laying out his case for a military campaign against Iran to arguing for more aggressive replacement tariffs than he has announced.
There is a long list of items on the president’s policy agenda that, if Trump speaks about them, could shake up financial markets, noted Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments. These range from political priorities such as Iran, where any ultimatum could send crude oil prices sharply higher, to Federal Reserve governance.
The president plans to use the speech to showcase the administration’s achievements, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in a statement to Reuters. He will also spell out “an ambitious agenda to continue bringing the American Dream back for working people,” Leavitt said.
AFFORDABILITY QUESTION LOOMS LARGE
Part of that agenda is likely tackling affordability, which market participants expect to be a hot-button issue for voters during midterm congressional elections in November. The president has previously claimed victory against inflation, while proposing measures to address the high costs of home ownership.
He is also expected to talk about the administration’s plans to roll out “Trump accounts,” government-supported investment accounts for babies, as part of this affordability focus.
“He could propose other ideas around mortgage affordability that might impact the bond market,” said Tom Graff, chief investment officer at Facet. “There is also the proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates. There could be new details around that, which is definitely being closely watched by Wall Street.”
Any suggestion of a plan to send stimulus checks to taxpayers ahead of the midterm elections would raise fears of rising deficit levels and send bond yields higher, Rosen said.
Even if Trump uses the speech to take a victory lap, as a note to clients from Beacon Policy Advisors published on Monday suggests, investors said that approach might not reassure markets, especially if, as Beacon analysts suggested, it is combined with an insistence that he will continue to rely on executive action to implement his policies.
“That’s been the recipe for so much chaos, confusion and uncertainty in the last year that the idea of more of that in 2026 would spook a lot of folks,” said Stovall.
Reporting by Suzanne McGee, additional reporting by Noel Randewich; editing by Megan Davies, Rod Nickel
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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