2026-02-24T13:20:10.516Z / 路透社
[1/4]2015年6月29日，重型采矿设备在加利福尼亚州芒廷帕斯的Molycorp芒廷帕斯稀土设施运送表土材料。这些车辆能够运载重达100吨的岩石。路透社/大卫·贝克尔/档案照片
- 摘要
- 公司
- 五角大楼“开放”计划将助力建立无华限制的矿产价格体系
- 四种关键矿产将成为人工智能模型的首批关注对象
- 该计划旨在帮助抵消中国市场干预
2月24日（路透社）- 三位直接了解相关工作的消息人士告诉路透社，特朗普政府计划利用五角大楼创建的人工智能项目，为关键矿产设定参考价格，同时致力于建立一个全球金属交易区。
副总统JD·万斯本月早些时候提议，美国和其他50多个国家应在“生产的每个阶段为关键矿产设定参考价格”，并以“可调整关税维护价格完整性”为后盾。
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消息人士称，这些参考价格将由美国国防部的“国家安全开放价格探索”（OPEN）人工智能金属项目制定。这些消息人士未获授权公开发言。
这一举措揭示了特朗普政府试图塑造市场定价的方式，尽管人工智能技术在能否重塑关键矿产买卖模式方面面临质疑。
五角大楼高级研究计划局（DARPA）于2023年启动了“开放”项目，旨在计算考虑劳动力、加工及其他成本，同时排除所谓中国市场操纵因素后，金属的合理价格。
消息人士称，特朗普政府官员最初将“开放”项目的人工智能定价模型聚焦于至少四种关键矿产，包括锗、镓、锑和钨，随后再扩展至其他矿产。参与提供数据和技术支持的包括标普全球（SPGI.N）和芬兰数据公司Rovjok。
白宫、国防部、标普和Rovjok均未回应置评请求。
这一矿产计划出台之际，特朗普政府正迅速将人工智能工具部署到其他领域，包括与OpenAI、Anthropic以及谷歌（GOOGL.O）合作，在战场环境中使用生成式人工智能。
聚焦交易清淡的金属市场
中国是美国政府认定的众多关键矿产的全球最大开采或加工国。近年来，北京利用这一优势低价生产矿产，压低市场价格，迫使西方竞争对手倒闭。
中国官员长期以来表示，中国根据世界贸易组织规则管理矿产出口。
从一开始就专注于交易清淡或根本无交易金属的“开放”项目，将于明年移交给非营利性关键矿产论坛（CMF）管理。
CMF表示，其工作重点是“与政府资助的合作伙伴合作，对人工智能模型进行压力测试”，以及“识别和支持商业可行的采矿和加工项目，而非制定政府政策”。
人工智能模型旨在通过为双方提供更多定价确定性，促进西方矿业公司与制造商之间的金属供应交易。
对于使用锗、锑、镓等矿产的制造商而言，很难判断中国价格是否反映了传统的供需动态。
例如，由人工智能项目设定并由贸易区支持的锑价，可能会提高开发美国锑项目的公司的利润，但也可能推高在粘合剂和其他产品中使用锑的汽车制造商的成本。
目前尚不清楚人工智能衍生价格是否会波动或固定，也不清楚这些价格是在美国与个别盟友之间设定，还是适用于整个贸易区。
实施时间表也不清楚，因为特朗普政府必须首先说服数十个盟友加入该联盟，以确保其有效性。
加拿大能源和自然资源部在给路透社的声明中表示，正在“全面理解和分析”矿产贸易区提案。
“可靠投资的架构”
由于缺乏国会资金，特朗普政府正逐步放弃为个别公司提供价格下限保障，尽管许多矿业公司一直寻求此类支持。
“政府仍在真诚地试图通过构建可靠投资架构来回应行业需求信号，但它没有所有人期望的工具，”贝克·博茨律师事务所特别法律顾问、五角大楼战略资本办公室前董事总经理埃里克·罗宾逊表示。
创建矿产参考价格并以关税支持的计划引发了关于关税是否适用于所有含关键矿产产品的疑问。
例如，美国阴极行业规模很小，目前对锂的需求有限，但含有锂离子电池的笔记本电脑常规从台湾和其他地区进口。制造商长期以来一直倾向于价格最低的矿产来源。
“你可以尝试设定近似价格下限，但最终贸易壁垒无法保证关税墙另一端的实体获得实际价格下限，因为多个生产商仍会在价格上竞争，”曾在拜登和特朗普政府期间管理关键矿产贷款项目的前美国能源部工作人员内森尼尔·霍拉丹表示。
“开放”项目出台之际，私营行业正努力提高透明度。路透社本月早些时候报道，芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME.O）计划推出全球首个稀土期货合约。
美国矿业公司表示，只要能帮助他们实现盈利，他们支持参考价格和关税计划，以帮助抵消中国的倾销行为。
“我对美国生产钨的成本有很好的把握，”Guardian Metal Resources（GMET.L）首席执行官奥利弗·弗赖森表示，该公司正在开发内华达州的两座钨矿。“我希望确保任何参考价格都高于生产成本。”
特朗普已下令国防部更名为“战争部”，这一变更需国会批准。
报道：欧内斯特·舍伊德；渥太华的大卫·伦格伦和布鲁塞尔的朱莉娅·佩恩补充报道；维罗妮卡·布朗和尼克·齐明斯基编辑
我们的标准：汤姆森路透社信任原则
欧内斯特·舍伊德是资深记者，专注于关键矿产和全球能源转型报道，著有《地下战争：锂、铜与全球能源争夺战》（The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power our Lives），该书入围2024年国家图书奖，并被美国能源协会评为年度能源书籍。他曾在盛产石油的北达科他州工作两年，报道美国页岩革命，也报道过政治和环境议题。舍伊德是缅因州本地人，毕业于缅因大学（2021年获杰出校友称号）和哥伦比亚新闻学院。
Exclusive: Trump eyes Pentagon AI program for trade block’s minerals pricing, sources say
2026-02-24T13:20:10.516Z / Reuters
Item 1 of 4 Heavy mining equipment haul overburden material across Molycorp’s Mountain Pass Rare Earth facility in Mountain Pass, California June 29, 2015. The vehicles are able to carry up to 100 tons of rock. REUTERS/David Becker/File Photo
[1/4]Heavy mining equipment haul overburden material across Molycorp’s Mountain Pass Rare Earth facility in Mountain Pass, California June 29, 2015. The vehicles are able to carry up to 100 tons of rock. REUTERS/David Becker/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Summary
- Companies
- Pentagon’s OPEN program to help set China-free minerals prices
- Four critical minerals to be AI model’s first focus
- Program aims to help offset Chinese market interference
- Questions on how tariffs would support AI-derived price
Feb 24 (Reuters) – The Trump administration plans to use a Pentagon-created artificial intelligence program to help set reference prices for critical minerals as it works to build a global metals trading zone, three sources with direct knowledge of the effort told Reuters.
Vice President JD Vance earlier this month proposed that the U.S. and more than 50 other countries impose “reference prices for critical minerals at each stage of production” that would be backed by “adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity.”
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Those reference prices will be set by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN) AI metals program, according to the sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly.
The move sheds light on how the administration aims to shape market pricing, even as the AI technology has faced skepticism for whether it can retool how critical minerals are bought and sold.
The OPEN program was launched in 2023 by the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) with the goal of calculating what a metal should be priced at when labor, processing and other costs are factored in and when alleged Chinese market manipulation is factored out.
Trump officials are initially focusing OPEN’s AI pricing model on at least four critical minerals, including germanium, gallium, antimony and tungsten, before expanding to others, with S&P Global
(SPGI.N), opens new tab
and Finnish data firm Rovjok supplying data and other technical assistance, according to the sources.
The White House, Department of Defense, S&P and Rovjok did not respond to requests for comment.
The minerals plan comes as the administration moves to rapidly deploy AI tools elsewhere, including via collaborations with OpenAI, Anthropic and Alphabet’s
(GOOGL.O), opens new tab
Google for the use of generative AI in battlefield settings.
FOCUS ON THINLY TRADED METALS MARKETS
China is the world’s largest miner or processor of many of the minerals considered critical by the U.S. government. Beijing has used that advantage in recent years to produce minerals at a loss and dampen market prices, a backdrop that has forced Western rivals to close.
Chinese officials have long said that Beijing manages its exports of minerals in accordance with rules from the World Trade Organization.
The OPEN program, which is being transferred to the control of the non-profit Critical Minerals Forum (CMF) next year, has been focused from its inception on metals that are thinly traded or not traded at all.
The CMF said its focus has been on working with “government-funded partners to conduct stress-testing with AI models,” and on “identifying and supporting commercially viable mining and processing projects, rather than on government policy.”
The AI model is aimed at promoting metals supply deals between Western miners and manufacturers by giving both sides more pricing certainty.
It can be difficult for manufacturers that use germanium, antimony, gallium and other minerals to gauge whether Chinese prices reflect traditional supply-and-demand dynamics.
An antimony price set by the AI program and backed by the trade block could boost profits for companies developing U.S. antimony projects, for example. Yet it could raise prices for automakers who use antimony in adhesives and other products.
It was not immediately clear if the AI-derived prices would oscillate or be fixed, nor if they would be set between the U.S. and individual allies or applied across the trading block.
The timeline for implementation is also unclear as the Trump administration must first convince dozens of allies to join the block to guarantee effectiveness.
Canada’s Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources said in a statement to Reuters it was “working to comprehensively understand and analyze” the minerals trade block proposal.
‘AN ARCHITECTURE OF RELIABLE INVESTMENT’
The move comes as the Trump administration is stepping away from guaranteeing price floors for individual companies due to the lack of congressional funding, even as many miners have sought such support.
“The administration is still, in good faith, trying to respond to industry demand signals by creating an architecture of reliable investment, but it doesn’t have the one tool that everybody kind of wanted them to use,” said Eric Robinson, a special counsel with the Baker Botts law firm and former managing director of the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital.
The plan to create a minerals reference price and support it with tariffs has sparked questions about whether the tariff would apply to all products containing critical minerals.
For example, the U.S. has only a small cathode industry and thus has little need for lithium currently, but laptops containing lithium-ion batteries are routinely imported from Taiwan and elsewhere. Manufacturers have long voiced a preference for the cheapest source of minerals possible.
“You can try to set something approximating a price floor, but ultimately the trade barriers aren’t going to guarantee someone on the other side of that tariff wall an actual price floor because multiple producers are still going to compete on price,” said Nathaniel Horadam, a former U.S. Department of Energy staffer who managed critical minerals lending programs during the Biden and Trump administrations.
The OPEN program comes amid private industry efforts to boost transparency. CME Group
(CME.O), opens new tab
plans to launch the world’s first rare earths futures contract, Reuters reported earlier this month.
U.S. miners say they are supportive of a reference price-and-tariff plan that could help them offset Chinese dumping, provided it helps them generate a profit.
“I have a good steer on what the price is to produce tungsten in the U.S.,” said Oliver Friesen, CEO of Guardian Metal Resources
(GMET.L), opens new tab
, which is developing two Nevada mines for the metal used to harden steel. “I would want to make sure any reference price is above that.”
Trump has ordered the Department of Defense to rename itself the Department of War, a change that will require action by Congress.
Reporting by Ernest Scheyder; additional reporting by David Ljunggren in Ottawa and Julia Payne in Brussels; editing by Veronica Brown and Nick Zieminski
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
Ernest Scheyder is a senior correspondent covering critical minerals and the global energy transition, as well as the author of “The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power our Lives,” which was longlisted for the 2024 National Book Award and was named the American Energy Society’s Energy Book of the Year. He previously wrote about the U.S. shale revolution – drawing on a two-year stint based in oil-rich North Dakota – as well as politics and the environment. A native of Maine, Scheyder is a graduate of the University of Maine – where he was named a distinguished alumnus in 2021 – and Columbia Journalism School.
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