2026年2月24日 美国东部时间上午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰已进入第四个年头，这场战争已演变为一场以高伤亡和渐进式领土变更为特征的消耗战。俄罗斯仍控制着乌克兰约五分之一的领土，而基辅最近在反攻中夺回了部分有限的土地。军事估计显示，自2022年以来，俄罗斯损失约120万人伤亡，乌克兰损失在50万至60万之间，突显了双方的巨大损耗。
随着战事升级，外交活动也日益频繁。2025年8月，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在阿拉斯加与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京举行了旨在推进谈判的高风险会谈。自特朗普重返白宫以来，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基多次访问华盛顿，包括2025年2月在椭圆形办公室的争议性会面以及当年晚些时候的后续访问。
救援人员在俄罗斯袭击乌克兰哈尔科夫一栋住宅楼后搬运一名受伤妇女，2025年6月7日星期六。(美联社照片/Andrii Marienko)
今年早些时候在阿布扎比举行的三方谈判以及2月17-18日在日内瓦举行的更多谈判中，美国与双方进行了最新接触。特别代表史蒂夫·维特科夫在日内瓦与俄罗斯和乌克兰代表团会面，作为持续努力促成和解的一部分。
随着战争进入第五年，前官员和分析师表示，下一阶段可能出现三条路径：长期僵局、乌克兰势头转变或西方决心削弱。
救援人员在2025年9月28日星期日，俄罗斯袭击乌克兰基辅的一栋公寓楼现场工作。(美联社照片/Efrem Lukatsky)
情景一：长期僵局
最直接的轨迹是持续僵持。战争仍以消耗战为特征，双方均未发动决定性打击，谈判进展甚微。
美国空军退役上将菲利普·布雷德洛夫曾担任北约欧洲盟军最高司令，他表示，尽管俄罗斯控制着部分领土，但并未取胜，“目前没有赢家。”
“俄罗斯号称是世界超级大国，拥有全球前三的军队和前四的空军之一，12年来仅获得乌克兰约20%的领土。到目前为止，他们在冲突中损失了约120万人。这是乌克兰努力应对的冲突，也是俄罗斯——我再次强调——没有获胜的冲突。”
[泽连斯基声称美国给乌克兰和俄罗斯设定了达成和平协议的最后期限]
乌克兰武装部队第93独立机械化旅打击无人机排的军人控制着一架光纤制导FPV无人机，该无人机载有包裹，用于向前线顿涅茨克地区科斯蒂安蒂尼夫卡镇的战友运送物资，俄罗斯对乌克兰发动攻击，2026年2月17日。(Iryna Rybakova/乌克兰武装部队第93独立机械化旅新闻处/路透社)
情景二：乌克兰势头重塑外交
最近的战场发展表明了另一种可能性。布雷德洛夫指出，在俄罗斯指挥控制系统被破坏后，乌克兰取得了快速进展。
“在过去三到四天内，由于Starlink指挥控制系统的失效，乌克兰发动了攻势，在三天内夺回了俄罗斯数月来占领的土地，三路推进，收复了数百平方英里的领土，目前俄罗斯在多个地区正在后退。”
国家安全专家告诉福克斯新闻数字版，俄罗斯正通过其代理国网络为战争付出切实代价，这些代理国直接承受了美国军队的实力打击，随后导致俄罗斯收入和资源来源减少。(Andrew Harnik/盖蒂图片社)
范登堡联盟执行董事卡丽·菲莉佩蒂表示，此类进展可能会改变谈判桌上的筹码。“乌克兰最近收复领土的进展再次表明，普京的战争机器在世界进入俄罗斯全面入侵第四年时持续萎缩。俄罗斯最新的领土损失表明，普京及其军队远非不可战胜，他们开始在能力和资源方面经历真正的失败。”
她补充说，势头至关重要。“这不仅是乌克兰两年多来在战场上最重要的推进，其重要性甚至可能在外交谈判中更具体地体现出来。通过谈判达成持久公平的和平协议往往取决于势头——而现在乌克兰掌握着这种势头。”
布雷德洛夫认为，如果这种势头持续，可能会改变莫斯科的战略计算，并为基辅在谈判中争取更有利地位，只要乌克兰得到美国的有力支持：“乌克兰首先也是最重要的需求是西方特别是美国明确宣布，我们不会让俄罗斯在乌克兰获胜，我们将提供乌克兰所需的一切来阻止俄罗斯……让普京和俄罗斯民众都清楚听到这一点，这将是一个转折点。我认为这将迫使普京做出艰难决定。”
[泽连斯基在特朗普会面后称和平协议即将达成，但领土仍是症结]
2025年8月18日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在华盛顿特区白宫欢迎乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基。特朗普总统在白宫主持与泽连斯基的双边会议，并随后与欧洲领导人举行扩大会议，讨论俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的和平协议。(盖蒂图片社)
情景三：局势升级或西方疲惫
第三种路径令一些西方战略家担忧：支持不一致可能延长冲突或使局势向对俄罗斯有利的方向倾斜。
2017-2019年美国国务院发言人希瑟·诺尔特将这场战争描述为不仅仅是领土争端：“随着我们进入普京入侵乌克兰的第五年，我们再次意识到这场冲突从来不仅仅关乎领土——它关乎身份、信仰和一个自由国家的未来。俄罗斯摧毁了600多座教堂，在占领期间迫害了数百万乌克兰基督徒，并绑架了超过19,000名儿童，试图摧毁乌克兰的精神。特朗普总统推动持久和平必须以实力和问责为后盾——保护无辜生命，捍卫宗教自由，让被拐儿童回家。”
退役中将理查德·牛顿表示，威慑仍是核心：“这场可怕战争已进入第四个年头，根本教训未变：和平只有在实力塑造条件时才有可能实现。普京将继续残酷试探我们的决心，直到其侵略的代价超过任何可能的收益。”
2025年6月3日，乌克兰第30“康斯坦丁·奥斯特罗夫斯基”机械化旅的士兵在顿涅茨克方向向俄罗斯军队发射BM-21“冰雹”多管火箭发射系统。(Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
“乌克兰需要的不是世界的姿态，而是美国和欧洲坚定不移的支持，这让莫斯科相信进一步推进将带来不可接受的后果。俄罗斯绝不能战胜乌克兰和西方。需要的是可信的安全保障、强大的攻防能力以及西方统一的长期承诺，确保威慑不是遥不可及的目标，而是持久的现实。”
布雷德洛夫警告称，仅靠谈判无法改变力量平衡：“最危险的情景是我们没有在乌克兰采取应有的行动，俄罗斯接管乌克兰，因为他们还没有停止。我们在伊朗使用‘实力换和平’的政策，在委内瑞拉使用，在全球油轮问题上也使用……但在普京和乌克兰问题上，我们采取的是‘软弱换和平’。”
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俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京和乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的并排照片插图，讨论乌克兰的未来和战争可能的解决方案仍在继续。(Julia Demaree Nikhinson/美联社；Christian Bruna/盖蒂图片社)
“普京正在表明他在乌克兰事务中占据主导，而非西方，当然也不是美国。我们需要改变这种动态。现在‘坏人’告诉美国‘滚蛋’，所以我们不再告诉他们该怎么做，而是转向‘好人’，要求他们放弃更多，因为‘坏人’在‘沙箱’里玩得不好。这是‘软弱换和平’，而非‘实力换和平’。”
相关文章
[泽连斯基宣布与美国、俄罗斯进行新一轮谈判，乌克兰寻求“真正有尊严的战争结束”]
埃弗拉特·拉赫特是福克斯新闻数字版报道国际事务和联合国的世界记者。在X平台关注她@efratlachter。故事可发送至efrat.lachter@fox.com。
Russia’s war against Ukraine enters fifth year as experts outline 3 possible outcomes
February 24, 2026 6:00am EST / Fox News
Four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, the war in Ukraine has settled into a grinding conflict defined by high casualties and incremental territorial shifts. Russia still controls roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, while Kyiv has recently clawed back limited ground in counteroffensives. Military estimates put Russian losses at about 1.2 million casualties since 2022, with Ukrainian losses between 500,000 and 600,000, underscoring the scale of attrition on both sides.
Diplomacy has intensified alongside the fighting. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last August for high-stakes talks aimed at advancing negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has traveled to Washington multiple times since Trump returned to office, including a contentious Oval Office meeting in Feb. 2025 and a follow-up visit later in the year.
Rescuers carry a wounded woman after a Russian attack that hit a residential building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Saturday, June 7, 2025.(AP Photo/Andrii Marienko)
The most recent U.S. engagement with both sides came during trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi earlier this year and more taking place in Geneva on Feb. 17–18, where special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian and Ukrainian delegations as part of ongoing efforts to broker a settlement.
As the war enters its fifth year, former officials and analysts say the next phase could unfold along three possible paths: prolonged stalemate, shifting Ukrainian momentum, or a dangerous erosion of Western resolve.
Rescuers work at the site of an apartment building damaged during a Russian attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, Sept. 28, 2025.(AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
Scenario one: Prolonged stalemate
The most immediate trajectory is continuation. The war remains defined by attrition, with neither side delivering a decisive blow and negotiations producing little progress.
Ret. U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, former NATO supreme allied commander of Europe, said Moscow is not winning despite its territorial hold, “There isn’t a winner right now.”
“Russia, supposedly a world superpower with one of the world’s probably top three world armies and top four world air forces, in 12 years has gained about 20% [of Ukraine]. And they have lost some, say, over 1.2 million in the conflict so far. It’s a conflict that Ukraine is working hard to manage. It’s also a conflict that Russia is not, I repeat, not winning,” he said.
[ZELENSKYY CLAIMS US GAVE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA A DEADLINE TO REACH PEACE AGREEMENT]
Service members of the strike UAV platoon of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces control an FPV drone with optical fibre guidance, with a parcel containing items attached, for delivery to their brothers‑in‑arms at a position in the frontline town of Kostiantynivka, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine, Feb. 17, 2026.(Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Reuters)
Scenario two: Ukrainian momentum reshapes diplomacy
Recent battlefield developments suggest another possibility. Breedlove pointed to rapid Ukrainian gains following disruptions in Russia’s command-and-control systems.
“In the last three or four days, because of the loss of the Starlink command and control system, Ukraine launched an offensive, and they have snatched back months of Russian gains in three days, three-pronged push, hundreds of square miles regained, and Russia is backing up in several places right now.”
National security experts told Fox News Digital that Russia is facing tangible consequences for the war through its network of proxy countries that have directly endured the might of the U.S. military and subsequently left Russia with fewer streams of revenue and resources.(Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Carrie Filipetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition, said such advances could shift leverage at the negotiating table. “Ukraine’s recent advances to recapture its territory is yet another signal that Putin’s war machine is continuing to atrophy as the world marks the fourth year of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Russia’s latest territorial losses shows that far from being invincible, Putin and his army are beginning to experience real failures in terms of capability and resources.”
She added that momentum matters. “Not only is this the most significant Ukrainian advance on the battlefield in more than two years, its importance may be felt even more concretely at the diplomatic table. Finding a lasting and equitable peace deal through negotiation is often about momentum – and right now the Ukrainians have it.”
If sustained, such gains could alter Moscow’s calculations and give Kyiv a stronger footing in negotiations as long as Ukraine has strong U.S. support, Breedlove argues, “The first thing and the most important thing Ukraine needs is a declaratory statement by the West and specifically by the United States that we are not going to allow Russia to win in Ukraine, and we will give Ukraine what it needs to stop Russia… where Putin hears it loud and clear and where the people of Russia hear it loud and clear that is a game changer. And I think that’s when Mr. Putin is going to have to make some tough decisions.”
[ZELENSKYY SAYS PEACE DEAL IS CLOSE AFTER TRUMP MEETING BUT TERRITORY REMAINS STICKING POINT]
President Donald Trump greets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Aug. 18, 2025 in Washington, D.C. President Trump is hosting President Zelenskyy at the White House for a bilateral meeting and later an expanded meeting with European leaders to discuss a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.(Getty Images)
Scenario three: Escalation or Western fatigue
A third path worries some Western strategists: that inconsistent support could prolong or tilt the conflict in Russia’s favor.
Heather Nauert, who served as spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State from 2017 to 2019, framed the war as more than a territorial dispute. “As we now enter the fifth year of Putin’s war in Ukraine, we’re reminded that this conflict has never been only about territory — it’s about identity, faith, and the future of a free nation. Russia has destroyed more than 600 churches, persecuted millions of Ukrainian Christians under occupation, and abducted more than 19,000 children in an effort to break Ukraine’s spirit. President Trump’s push for a lasting peace must be backed by strength and accountability – one that protects innocent lives, defends religious freedom and brings stolen children home.”
Ret. Lt. Gen. Richard Newton said deterrence remains central. “Four years into this horrific war, the fundamental lesson remains unchanged: Peace is only possible when strength shapes the terms. Putin will continue to savagely test our resolve until the costs of his aggression outweigh any possible gain.”
Soldiers of the 30th Prince Konstanty Ostrogski Mechanized Brigade fire a missile from a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher at the positions of Russian troops in the Donetsk direction, Ukraine, on June 3, 2025.(Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
“What Ukraine needs isn’t gestures from the world, but instead, unwavering support from the U.S. and Europe that convinces Moscow further advances carry unacceptable consequences,” he argued. “Russia must not prevail against Ukraine and the West. What are needed are credible security guarantees, robust offensive and defensive capabilities and a unified, long-term commitment by the West to ensure deterrence isn’t an elusive goal, but a lasting reality.”
Breedlove warned that negotiations alone will not shift the balance. “The most dangerous scenario is that we do not do what we should do in Ukraine and Russia takes over Ukraine because they’re not done.We have a policy of peace through strength and we’re using it in Iran. We’ve used it in Venezuela. We’re using it with oil tankers around the world… But when it comes to Putin and Ukraine, we are peace through weakness.”
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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are shown in a side-by-side photo illustration as discussions continue over the future of Ukraine and a potential settlement to the war.(Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP; Christian Bruna/Getty)
“Mr. Putin is making a point that he’s in charge in Ukraine, not the West and certainly not America. And so we need to change that dynamic. You got good guys and you got bad guys. And right now the bad guys have told America to take a hike. So now, rather than telling them what to do, we are going to the good guys and saying, you have to give up more because the bad guys are not playing well in the sandbox. That’s peace through weakness, not peace through strength,” Breedlove concluded.
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[Zelenskyy announces next round of talks with US, Russia as Ukraine seeks ‘real and dignified end to the war’]
Efrat Lachter is a world reporter for Fox News Digital covering international affairs and the United Nations. Follow her on X @efratlachter. Stories can be sent to efrat.lachter@fox.com.
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