分析：斯蒂芬·科林森（Stephen Collinson），美国有线电视新闻网（CNN） | 发布时间：2026年2月24日，美国东部时间凌晨12:00
特朗普向墨西哥发出警告：打击毒枭，否则他将亲自出手
墨西哥最受通缉的毒枭内梅西奥·“埃尔·门乔”·奥塞古拉·塞万提斯（Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes）在与墨西哥军方交火后死亡，特朗普长期要求的打击行动终于到来。
但试图抓捕奥塞古拉导致局势升级并演变为血腥冲突，这一事件带来了警告。
特朗普的暴力执法热情可能引发比周末黑帮报复更严重的动荡——后者已导致美国人被困在旅游热点地区，巴士和商铺被焚毁。
墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·谢因鲍姆（Claudia Sheinbaum）在美国情报部门协助下，对势力强大的哈利斯科新一代卡特尔（Jalisco New Generation Cartel）头目采取行动，这标志着在特朗普一年来的巨大压力下，墨西哥政策发生重大转向。
但美国总统已经要求更多行动。他在社交媒体上回应此次突袭时写道：“墨西哥必须加大对卡特尔和毒品的打击力度！”
奥塞古拉的死亡可能会略微缓解特朗普对谢因鲍姆的压力，但更持久的打击行动将带来新的困境和政治风险。广泛且持续的暴力可能导致选民反对谢因鲍姆，损害经济，或扰乱墨西哥今年夏天联合主办国际足联世界杯的计划。
历史表明，高调杀害或抓捕毒枭可能成为美墨边境双方政治吹嘘的头条，但无法阻止毒品流向美国，也无法削弱在墨西哥商业、执法和政治中滋生腐败的卡特尔。
特朗普曾警告谢因鲍姆“没有掌控墨西哥”
华盛顿往往只考虑自身利益，但从美国政治的狭隘视角看待本周末的墨西哥局势，忽视了谢因鲍姆的主动性和个人政治考量。她2024年上台时誓言结束前任更宽松的卡特尔政策，并在采取行动前已着手重建国家安全体系和领导层。
不过，她针对哈利斯科卡特尔（该组织在全国活跃且有数十个附属机构）的行动，恰逢特朗普将美国力量重新聚焦于动荡的后院。总统毫不掩饰他希望在政策转变中打一场毒品战争——现在，他将对本土及其周边地区的威胁视为最严重的国家安全问题之一。“我们与她关系很好，她是个好女人。但卡特尔在统治墨西哥，她并没有掌控墨西哥。”特朗普1月3日在接受《福克斯和朋友们》采访时表示。
一年前，美国国务院将包括哈利斯科卡特尔在内的8个拉美帮派和犯罪集团列为外国恐怖组织。此后，五角大楼持续开展行动，打击加勒比海和太平洋地区所谓的“毒品船只”，并将至少151名遇难者称为“非法战斗人员”。但国会批评者和人权组织认为，此类打击剥夺了受害者的正当程序，违反宪法和国际法。
政府拒绝接受此类批评。船只打击行动以及特朗普对西半球的强硬姿态，正成为测试“美国优先”政策新前沿的途径，并增强总统的“强人”形象。
政府将1月美国特种部队突袭委内瑞拉独裁者尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）的行动辩解为打击贩毒集团，但此后似乎更急于利用该国丰富的石油资源。
在国家安全战略中，政府提出“特朗普门罗主义 Corollary”，要求半球国家合作打击“毒品恐怖主义”，同时试图消除中国等外国势力在该地区的政治和商业影响力。
特朗普长期以来美化以法外暴力回应毒品贸易的领导人。在第一个任期内，他经常称赞菲律宾前总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特的残酷禁毒战争（导致数千人死亡），而杜特尔特现在因反人类罪在海牙国际刑事法院受审。特朗普还表示，他羡慕中国极权总统习近平“处决毒贩”的做法。
尽管如此，特朗普在奥塞古拉死后的反应比他多数社交媒体爆发更克制。这可能表明，华盛顿希望保护谢因鲍姆，避免将她塑造成美国代理人。白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特（Karoline Leavitt）周日证实了美国情报支持，并赞扬感谢墨西哥军方。
但周一，保守派媒体将哈利斯科卡特尔打击行动赞为特朗普的胜利。威胁对毒贩使用暴力一直深受共和党选民欢迎。公平地说，特朗普是最早意识到芬太尼在美国中心地带造成致命影响的全国性政治候选人之一。奥塞古拉曾被美国缉毒局悬赏1000万美元，部分原因是其向美国走私毒品。
得克萨斯州共和党众议员丹·克伦肖（Dan Crenshaw）在社交平台X上写道：“这是对抗墨西哥最暴力疯狂卡特尔的战争开端。”得克萨斯州参议员泰德·克鲁兹（Ted Cruz）在周一播客中表示，他去年已警告墨西哥高级官员，如果不认真对待贩毒集团，特朗普将采取行动。
“当我传达这个信息时，我说：‘看，我们不会让你在那里对跨国犯罪组织涌入美国、杀害美国人视而不见。’”克鲁兹称，“可以说，墨西哥已大幅转向，这是这一转变的真实体现。”
美国人陷入恐慌与困境
然而，毒枭暴力死亡的表象与周一墨西哥多个城市的恐怖场景形成对比。数百名美国人向国务院求助，包括波多黎各瓦亚塔海滩（Puerto Vallarta）的游客。28岁的纽约居民兼模特娜塔莉·贝卢奇亚（Natalie Belluccia）告诉CNN：“这里感觉像战区。我觉得卡特尔对美国介入感到愤怒，我认为政府本应提前以某种方式警告我们。”
谢因鲍姆承诺恢复秩序。但特朗普正考虑对伊朗发动新战争（尽管选民支持率下降），他无法承受危及海外美国人的危机。
尽管言辞强硬，特朗普永远无法控制墨西哥的毒品战争。经验表明，奥塞古拉之死可能导致权力真空和毒品地盘争夺战，凸显谢因鲍姆的冒险。
“我认为这是当时可选方案中最具风险的。”国际危机组织（International Crisis Group）墨西哥问题高级分析师大卫·莫拉（David Mora）在接受CNN国际频道采访时表示，“他们对奥塞古拉采取的行动不仅会在哈利斯科卡特尔内部造成不稳定，还会影响墨西哥各地的其他小型犯罪组织。”
如果暴力升级，谢因鲍姆的政治地位和决心可能受到考验。任何美国操纵混乱的印象都可能反噬特朗普。
而奥塞古拉的死亡仅仅是开始。
克伦肖警告称，卡特尔正爆发权力斗争，墨西哥将出现路障、恐吓和针对性袭击。“无论如何，这就是压力下的犯罪恐怖组织的样子。我们将看到墨西哥领导层和人民是屈服还是最终决定抗争。”他在周一的X平台上写道。
A cartel crackdown carries political risks for Trump
Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN | Published Feb 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
President Donald Trump had put Mexico on notice: Go after the country’s powerful drug lords, or he would.
His long-demanded crackdown arrived when the country’s most wanted narco-kingpin died after a shootout with the Mexican military.
But the unrest that erupted after the attempt to capture Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes turned bloody carried a warning.
Trump’s zest for violent enforcement could sow turmoil far worse than the weekend’s gangland backlash that left Americans stranded in tourist hotspots and buses and businesses burning.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s move against the leader of the hugely powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel, which was aided by US intelligence, represented a hard policy turn following a year of intense pressure from Trump.
But the US president is already demanding more. He responded to the assault by writing on social media, “Mexico must step up their effort on Cartels and Drugs!”
El Mencho’s demise might ease a little US heat on Sheinbaum. But a more permanent cartel crackdown would create new dilemmas and political risks. Widespread, prolonged violence could turn voters against the president and hurt the economy or disrupt Mexico’s co-hosting of the FIFA World Cup this summer.
And history shows that high-profile killings or captures of drug lords might grab headlines and toughen political bragging rights on each side of the US-Mexico border. But they don’t stop drugs flowing to Americans or temper cartels, which seed corruption throughout Mexican business, law enforcement and politics.
Trump had warned Sheinbaum ‘isn’t running Mexico’
Washington often thinks everything is about itself. But viewing events in Mexico this weekend through a narrow prism of American politics ignores Sheinbaum’s initiative and personal political stakes. She came to power in 2024 vowing to end the more permissive cartel policies of her predecessors, and she had taken steps to rebuild the national security establishment and leadership before striking.
Still, her targeting of Jalisco — a cartel organization that is active throughout the country and has scores of affiliates — follows Trump’s refocusing of America’s power toward its restive backyard. The president has made no secret of his desire for a drug war in the context of a policy shift that now sees threats to the homeland and its orbit as among the worst national security problems. “We’re very friendly with her, she’s a good woman. But the cartels are running Mexico. She’s not running Mexico,” Trump told “Fox and Friends” on January 3.
A year ago, the State Department designated eight Latin American gangs and criminal cartels, including Jalisco, as foreign terrorist organizations. The Pentagon has since carried out a relentless operation to strike what officials describe as “drug boats” in the Caribbean and the Pacific. It has labeled the at least 151 people killed as “unlawful combatants,” but critics in Congress and human rights groups argue the strikes deny victims due process and infringe the Constitution and international law.
The administration resists such complaints. And the boat strikes, along with Trump’s wider posture toward the hemisphere, are becoming a way to test a new front of American First policy and to boost the president’s strongman aura.
The administration justified the daring US special forces raid that extracted Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in January as a blow to drug cartels. But it has since seemed most keen to exploit the country’s vast oil resources.
In another sign of intent, in its national security strategy, the administration wrote a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine to mandate hemispheric cooperation against narco-terrorists. The document also seeks to dispel the political and business influence in the region of foreign powers such as China.
Trump has long mythologized leaders who respond to the drug trade with extrajudicial violence. In his first term, he often lionized ex-Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte for a brutal drug war that killed thousands. Duterte is now in detention in The Hague facing International Criminal Court charges of crimes against humanity. Trump has also spoken of his envy at summary executions that he says China’s totalitarian President Xi Jinping uses to dispense with traffickers.
Still, Trump’s reaction following El Mencho’s death was more muted than most of his social media outbursts. This may be a sign Washington wants to shield Sheinbaum by not presenting her as a US proxy. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed US intelligence support in a Sunday statement while offering praise and thanks to the Mexican military.
But across conservative media on Monday, the Jalisco crackdown was hailed as a Trump victory. Threatening violence against drug traffickers has always played well with the Republican base. And to be fair to Trump, he was one of the first national political candidates to appreciate the murderous toll of fentanyl in the US heartland. Oseguera was the subject of a $10 million US Drug Enforcement Agency bounty, partly for his role in funneling the drug to the United States.
Texas Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw wrote on X that “this is the beginning of the war against the most violent and deranged cartel in Mexico.” Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said on his podcast Monday that he’d warned senior Mexican officials last year that if they didn’t get serious about drug cartels, Trump would.
“When I conveyed that message, I said, ‘Look, we’re not going to let you just sit there and turn a blind eye while these transnational criminal organizations flood position into America and kill Americans,’” Cruz said. “I will say, Mexico has pivoted sharply, and this is a real manifestation of that.”
Americans were left scared and stranded
Yet the optics of a narco-gangster’s violent end were matched Monday by frightening scenes from multiple Mexican cities. Hundreds of stranded Americans besieged the State Department with calls for help, including from the beach getaway of Puerto Vallarta. New York resident and model Natalie Belluccia, 28, told CNN it felt like “a war zone” in the resort. “I feel like the cartel is a little angry that the US is involved,” she said. “I think that we should have been warned (by the government) in some sort of way.”
Sheinbaum pledged order would be restored. But as Trump contemplates a possible new US war with Iran despite the ebbing confidence of voters, he can ill afford a crisis that endangers Americans abroad.
And for all his tough talk, Trump will never control the Mexican drug wars. Experience suggests that Oseguera’s death could cause power vacuums and narco-turf wars, underscoring Sheinbaum’s gamble.
“I think it is certainly the riskiest of options that could have been on the table at that moment,” David Mora, senior analyst for Mexico at the International Crisis Group, told Isa Soares on CNN International. “What they did with El Mencho is going to bring instability not only within the Jalisco cartel structure, but with regards to the other smaller criminal groups that operate across Mexico.”
If violence worsens, Sheinbaum’s political standing and resolve could fray. Any impressions of US-engineered chaos could rebound against Trump.
And Oseguera’s death is just the beginning.
Crenshaw warned that a cartel power struggle was breaking out and said that roadblocks, intimidation and targeted attacks should be expected in Mexico. “Either way, this is what a criminal terrorist organization under pressure looks like. And we will see if Mexican leadership and the Mexican people cave to it or finally decide to fight it,” Crenshaw wrote on X on Monday.
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