发布时间：2026年2月23日，美国东部时间上午5:00 | CNN政治版
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作者：布雷特·H·麦格克
1小时45分钟前
中东 唐纳德·特朗普
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2026年2月16日，总统唐纳德·特朗普在从佛罗里达州西棕榈滩前往马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地的空军一号上。
伊丽莎白·弗兰茨/路透社
布雷特·麦格克是CNN全球事务分析师，曾在乔治·W·布什、巴拉克·奥巴马、唐纳德·特朗普和乔·拜登政府担任高级国家安全职务。
美国正在中东地区部署能够对伊朗发动多波次打击的军事力量。如果命令下达，这将标志着一场远超特朗普此前更为谨慎的军事行动的重大升级。与之前针对特定目标、有明确时间限制的行动（从打击“伊斯兰国”领导层，到化武袭击后打击叙利亚空军基地，或去年夏天对伊朗核设施的一夜突袭）不同，此次行动将在没有明确结束状态的情况下展开。
我们如何走到这一步？
答案在于三个原本独立但如今交织在一起的问题：伊朗的导弹库、政权在国内的暴力镇压，以及其未解决的核计划。这些因素压缩了有限行动的空间，并塑造了未来几天或几周内军事行动的可能形态。
行动必要性：伊朗的导弹
2024年10月1日，我在白宫 Situation Room（情况室）目睹约200枚伊朗导弹射向以色列城市。飞行时间约13分钟。当导弹升入高空并俯冲目标时，美国和以色列防御系统展开拦截。东地中海的美国海军驱逐舰与以色列防空部队共同拦截了来袭的导弹齐射，大部分被摧毁。
这一事件标志着该地区数十年来首次国家间直接攻击。以色列随后打击了伊朗防空系统，其尚未得到补充。
2026年2月11日，伊朗德黑兰，在纪念1979年伊朗革命周年的活动中，伊朗武装部队生产的导弹在一排伊朗国旗旁展出。
马吉德·赛义迪/盖蒂图片社
伊朗的导弹计划不仅是区域威胁。德黑兰已向俄罗斯转让导弹和无人机技术，用于乌克兰战场，伊朗制造的无人机频繁袭击民用基础设施。联合国安理会去年重新实施了与伊朗导弹活动相关的制裁，反映了国际社会对该计划扩张的广泛担忧。
在任何美国军事场景中，导弹生产设施、发射装置、库存及相关防空系统可能成为首批目标。对军事规划者而言，削弱伊朗的报复能力是任何大规模行动的必要前提。这一逻辑意味着，进攻阶段可能更接近以色列6月的多日空袭，而非美国对伊朗核设施的一夜突袭。
政治导火索：伊朗的镇压
这场危机的直接导火索来自伊朗国内。
新年前夕爆发的全国性抗议活动遭到残酷镇压。特朗普曾公开鼓励示威者，并警告称暴力镇压将给伊朗带来严重后果。
“继续抗议——接管你们的机构。援助即将到来。”特朗普在社交媒体上写道。他还警告称，如果伊朗政权“暴力杀害和平抗议者……美国将前来救援。”
然而，这一承诺并未兑现。
伊朗陷入黑暗的夜晚
5:42 • 来源：CNN
这场悲剧导致伊朗民众继续抗议，却被政权屠杀数千人（部分报道称达数万人）。
事件震惊了世界——欧盟27个成员国首次协调行动，制裁伊斯兰革命卫队并将其列为恐怖组织。
美国在该地区的军事集结正是由这些抗议、特朗普的威胁及随后的镇压触发——而非伊朗的核或导弹计划。
这一点对行动规划至关重要。
如果美国行动的政治动力源于政权的暴力镇压，那么难以避免将特朗普此前警告纳入考量。与镇压相关的设施、指挥节点，甚至可能针对伊斯兰革命卫队和巴斯基民兵等镇压机构的领导层，可能被纳入打击目标。
这进一步扩大了行动范围，并增加了伊朗报复的风险（包括袭击该地区的美国设施）。若伊朗在报复中造成美军伤亡，美国行动可能进一步升级，甚至打击伊朗经济基础设施。
战略导火索：核计划
第三个关键因素是伊朗的核计划。
去年夏天的美国打击针对伊朗核浓缩设施，主要目标为福特沃、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕。国际原子能机构（IAEA）称，伊朗高浓缩铀储备可能仍埋藏在伊斯法罕设施地下。军事规划者可能已准备好后续打击目标，或在特朗普下令后重新打击。
独家：美国对伊朗打击未摧毁核设施，消息人士称
3:47 • 来源：CNN
此外，在去年夏天被摧毁的纳坦兹核设施以南约1英里的山体下，有一座新设施——“镐山”（Pickaxe Mountain）。伊朗2020年向IAEA申报该设施为未来组装核燃料离心机的场地。公开报道显示，6月美国打击后该设施建设显著加速，可能被纳入军事规划者的打击清单。
具有讽刺意味的是，今年伊朗抗议和暴力镇压之前，对伊朗核设施的打击并未受到重视。镇压引发危机后，伊朗再次拒绝与美国进行核问题以外的外交谈判，并坚持强硬立场拒绝放弃铀浓缩。民用核计划无需国内铀浓缩，而伊朗是全球唯一未申报武器计划却常规性将铀浓缩至武器级以下的国家——这正是去年美国打击的目标。
这些因素突然将核计划重新置于特朗普的行动清单中。自去年夏天美国打击以来，法国和英国启动“快速回退”程序后，联合国安理会重新实施了针对伊朗核活动的第七章制裁。
因此，难以想象此次军事行动不包括对伊朗核设施（包括镐山新设施）的打击，行动范围进一步扩大。
一场扩张性的行动
单独来看，这些问题或许可通过不同途径处理——导弹威慑（或以色列而非美国发动打击）、核问题外交谈判、制裁回应国内镇压。然而，特朗普今年早些时候的严厉警告，以及伊朗以暴力镇压回应这些警告的决定，已将这些问题合并为美国规划者的“一篮子”行动。
这意味着，行动上，打击将从导弹基础设施和防空系统开始，扩大至政权安全机构，随后可能对残余核设施进行后续打击。这至少是一场多日行动，是否进一步扩大（包括打击伊朗领导层和经济基础设施），取决于伊朗对初始攻击的回应。美国向该地区的大规模部署表明，美军已做好升级准备。
独家：福特号航母打击群数日内抵港，特朗普权衡对伊朗的选择
3:17 • 来源：CNN
特朗普希望此次行动保持有限，类似于去年夏天对福特沃、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕的打击。但危机的发展逻辑表明，这可能演变为一场持续数日或数周的行动，而非单一打击。
濒临临界点
这就是我们所处的临界点——一系列意外事件和选择，使华盛顿和德黑兰几乎没有回旋余地。除非出现不太可能的最后一刻外交突破，否则下一步将取决于特朗普和伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊的行动，两人目前似乎都不愿提供“退路”。
若敌对行动开始，局势将走向一场不确定时长的行动，充满变量，这是特朗普作为总司令前所未见的。
中东 唐纳德·特朗普
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Trump’s riskiest move: What led Iran to this moment — and what happens next
PUBLISHED Feb 23, 2026, 5:00 AM ET | CNN Politics
Analysis by
Brett H. McGurk
1 hr 45 min ago
The Middle East Donald Trump
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President Donald Trump looks on onboard Air Force One, on travel from West Palm Beach, Florida, to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on February 16.
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
Brett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
The United States is positioning military forces across the Middle East capable of launching multiple waves of strikes into Iran. If ordered, this would mark a significant operation beyond President Donald Trump’s prior, more discrete uses of force. Unlike earlier operations that were time-bound and tethered to defined objectives — from targeting ISIS leadership to striking Syrian airfields after chemical attacks or the single night of strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last summer — this campaign would begin without a clearly defined end state.
How did we get here?
The answer lies in the convergence of three issues that were once distinct but are now fused: Iran’s missile arsenal, the regime’s violent crackdown at home, and its unresolved nuclear program. Taken together, they narrow the space for limited action and shape how a military operation may look like over the coming days or weeks.
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Operational imperative: Iran’s missiles
On October 1, 2024, I was in the White House Situation Room as roughly two hundred Iranian missiles were launched toward Israeli cities. The flight time was about thirteen minutes. As the missiles arched into the upper atmosphere and descended toward their targets, US and Israeli defense systems engaged. US Navy destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean joined Israeli air defense batteries in intercepting the incoming barrage. Most of the missiles were destroyed.
The episode marked the first direct state-on-state attack in the region in decades. Israel subsequently struck Iranian air defense systems, which have yet to be replenished.
Missiles produced by Iran’s armed forces are displayed near a row of Iranian flags during commemorations to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Iranian Revolution on February 11, in Tehran, Iran.
Majid Saeedi/Getty Images
Iran’s missile program is not only a regional threat. Tehran has transferred missile and drone technology to Russia for use in Ukraine, with Iranian-origin drones routinely striking civilian infrastructure. The United Nations Security Council last year reimposed sanctions related to Iran’s missile activities, reflecting broad international concern over the program’s expansion.
In any US military scenario, missile production facilities, launchers, stockpiles, and associated air defenses would likely be among the first targets. For military planners, degrading Iran’s capacity to retaliate is an essential prerequisite to any broader operation. That logic alone points toward an opening phase closer to Israel’s multi-day air campaign in June, as opposed to the one night of US strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities towards the end of that campaign.
Political trigger: Iran’s crackdown
The precipitating event for this crisis emerged from inside Iran.
Nationwide protests that began shortly before the New Year were crushed. Trump had publicly encouraged demonstrators and warned that violent suppression would carry severe consequences for Iran.
“KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS. HELP IS ON THE WAY.” Trump wrote on his social media account. He also warned that if Iran’s regime “violently kills peaceful protestors … the United States will come to their rescue.”
That never happened.
The night Iran went dark
5:42 • Source: CNN
The night Iran went dark
5:42
The tragic result was that Iranians remained in the streets, only to be massacred in the thousands (some reports are in the tens of thousands) at the hands of the regime.
The events shocked much of the world — for the first time, all 27 European Union members moved in concert to sanction the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and label it as a terrorist organization.
The US military buildup in the region was triggered by these protests, Trump’s threats, and the crackdown that followed — not Iran’s nuclear or missile programs.
That matters operationally.
If the political impetus for US action stems from the regime’s violent repression, it becomes difficult to envision a campaign that does not account for Trump’s earlier warnings. Facilities, command nodes, and possibly leadership elements tied to the IRGC and Basij militia — the repressive apparatus that led the crackdown — are likely to enter the targeting matrix.
That further expands the scope of an operation, and the risk of Iran’s own retaliations, including against US facilities across the region. Should Iran inflict American casualties in its response, the US operation would surely expand further, perhaps against Iran’s economic infrastructure.
Strategic flashpoint: the nuclear program
The third track is Iran’s nuclear program.
The US strikes last summer targeted Iran’s nuclear enrichment infrastructure, with primary targets at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (fuel that can be fashioned into a bomb) is likely still buried underneath the Isfahan facility, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Military planners are likely to have follow-up targets in the deck, or areas to re-strike should Trump order an operation.
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Exclusive: US strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say
3:47 • Source: CNN
Exclusive: US strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say
3:47
There is also a new facility buried underneath a mountain about a mile south of Natanz, the enrichment facility destroyed last summer. This is “Pickaxe” mountain, a site Iran declared to the IAEA in 2020 as a future facility to assemble the centrifuges that make nuclear fuel. Public reports suggest that construction of the facility picked up significantly in the wake of the US strikes in June, and the area is likely on the target list for military planners.
Ironically, strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities were not on the radar screen or under serious contemplation before the Iranian protests and violent crackdown earlier this year. The crackdown precipitated the crisis, but Iran then once again refused diplomatic talks with the United States other than on its nuclear program — and then retained a hardline position against US calls to abandon enrichment. Domestic enrichment is unnecessary for a civilian nuclear program, and Iran is the only country in the world without a declared weapons program that routinely enriched uranium to levels a step below weapons grade — something the US military strikes stopped.
These factors have suddenly returned the nuclear program to Trump’s crosshairs. Even since the US strikes last summer, the UN Security Council reimposed Chapter VII sanctions on Iran’s nuclear activities, after France and the UK initiated a procedure known as “Snapback.”
Accordingly, it’s hard to imagine a military operation that does not also strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, to include the new facility at Pickaxe Mountain. The scope expands, further.
An expansive campaign
Individually, each of these issues might have been managed on separate tracks — deterrence on missiles (or Israeli — not American — strikes), diplomacy on the nuclear issues, sanctions in response to internal repression. The combination of Trump’s stark warnings earlier this year, however, together with Iran’s decision to defy those warnings with a violent crackdown, served to merge the issues into one basket for American planners.
This means, operationally, a strike campaign would begin with missile infrastructure and air defenses, expanded to elements of the regime’s security apparatus, and follow-on action against residual nuclear facilities. That would be a multi-day campaign, at least, and whether it expands from there — to include Iranian leadership and economic infrastructure targets —would depend on Iran’s response to initial attacks. The massive deployment to the region suggests the US military is poised and prepared to move up the escalation ladder, if necessary.
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With the USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group set to arrive in days, President Trump weighs his options on Iran
3:17 • Source: CNN
With the USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group set to arrive in days, President Trump weighs his options on …
3:17
Trump will hope such an operation remains limited, akin to his strikes last summer against Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. But the logic of this crisis and how it has developed now tends towards a campaign of days or weeks. There will not be a single blow.
Now, at the brink
That is how we arrived at the brink, an inadvertent sequence of events and choices leaving little maneuvering room for Washington or Tehran. Short of a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, which is unlikely, what happens next will be in the hands of Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, neither of whom — at this moment — seem prepared to build an offramp.
Should hostilities begin, the course is set for a campaign of indeterminate length, and multiple variables, unlike anything that Trump, as commander-in-chief, has known before.
The Middle East Donald Trump
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