分析：亚伦·布莱克
1小时59分钟前
发布时间：2026年2月21日，美国东部时间下午1:00
图片说明：总统唐纳德·特朗普周五在白宫举行的新闻发布会上发言。
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
最高法院周五对总统唐纳德·特朗普的第二任期可能给予了最严厉的批评。包括两位总统任命大法官在内的最高法院大法官推翻了特朗普标志性的经济政策——他的全球关税政策。
从长远来看，最高法院可能让他避免了自我毁灭——至少在政治层面。
一些共和党人公开赞扬这一裁决，而且可以肯定更多人在幕后暗自高兴。
这是因为，尽管该裁决显然是特朗普议程的重大挫折，但它也剥夺了他手中那些似乎对国家造成短期经济损害、并且明显对特朗普所在政党造成短期政治损害的工具。
这并非关税故事的终结。特朗普迅速表态称，他将根据另一项授权启动10%的全球关税（他周六表示将提高至15%）。他甚至在周五声称，最高法院的裁决实际上”加强了”他征收贸易惩罚的能力。
但这并非事实。特朗普的关税权力已被大幅削弱。尽管共和党人一直愿意让他自行其是，甚至在他行使宪法赋予国会的权力时也是如此，但这次挫折可能会促使共和党内部反思是否应该继续容忍特朗普的贸易冒险行为。
关键问题在于，是否有共和党人会抓住这一明显机会来缓和关税政策。
关税如何损害特朗普
最高法院的裁决恰逢周五发布，这颇具讽刺意味。就在裁决公布前90分钟，美国经济分析局宣布第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）年化增长率仅为1.4%。这使得2025年成为2016年以来GDP增长第二差的年份。
去年也是几十年来就业增长最弱的年份之一。当然，1月份通胀率虽有所下降，但仍顽固高企。
换句话说，除股市外，美国经济表现不佳。
目前尚不清楚经济停滞有多少应归咎于关税政策本身。但围绕关税的不确定性及其造成的额外成本，显然给本已不佳的经济图景蒙上了一层阴影。
至少，这些关税让美国人有理由将经济困境归咎于特朗普。特朗普主动”认领”了一个挣扎的经济体，而经济学家普遍预测，他采用的方法至少在短期内会引发更多问题。
不难理解为何这一政策会损害特朗普及其共和党的利益。事实也确实如此。
图片说明：周五，洛杉矶港的龙门吊矗立在集装箱上方，背景是积雪覆盖的山脉。
Mario Tama/Getty Images
自特朗普于4月2日宣布全球关税以来，内特·西尔弗（Nate Silver）民调平均显示，特朗普的净经济支持率从+6跌至-12。
上个月的一项CNN民调显示，美国人对特朗普的关税政策持反对态度，支持率为37%，反对率为62%。甚至有25%的倾向共和党选民表示反对。
最高法院如何削弱特朗普的权力
在周五下午一场常令人困惑的新闻发布会上，特朗普指出，布雷特·M·卡瓦诺大法官的异议意见暗示他可以简单地转向其他关税授权方式。
确实存在一些替代方案。特朗普迅速抓住其中一个，宣布根据《1974年贸易法》第122条实施10%的全球关税。
“现在我将走我最初本可以走的路，这甚至比我们最初的选择更强大，”特朗普声称。
但这并非事实。
尽管存在多种选择，但特朗普选择最初路径的原因显而易见：如果法院允许他根据紧急状态授权实施关税，他将拥有更大的灵活性，能够快速实施高额关税并随意调整——通常是为了惩罚或胁迫其他国家。
唯一的限制是国会可以投票废除紧急状态。但对关税的强烈反对远未达到推翻否决的多数票。
相比之下，第122条将关税限制在15%，有效期为150天——之后国会需要延长。鉴于参众两院多数票近期均反对特朗普的关税政策，延长的可能性微乎其微。
而且，由于该条款要求某种国际支付问题，特朗普是否能合法使用这一条款甚至存在疑问。
其他关税授权方式在实施前需要更严格的流程。
事实上，首席大法官约翰·罗伯茨在脚注中直接反驳了卡瓦诺的主张：
“所引用的法律包含各种程序前提、必要的机构决定，以及对授权关税的期限、金额和范围的限制，”罗伯茨表示。
图片说明：周五的美国最高法院。
Heather Diehl/Getty Images
特朗普将关税标榜为振兴美国制造业、并为其提供与其他国家谈判贸易协议的强大杠杆。但第122条的短期有效期、较低的上限以及其他替代方案所需的更复杂流程，意味着他必须面对原本不存在的限制。而其他国家也会清楚他面临这些限制，从而削弱他的谈判筹码。
考虑到这些限制，特朗普是否还值得尝试再次大幅提高关税，这将是一个有趣的观察点。
共和党人的抉择
同样值得关注的是，这一裁决是否会鼓励那些对关税持怀疑态度但一直保持沉默的共和党国会议员，推动他们寻求改变这一政策方向。
过去一年，许多共和党人在特朗普实施关税时被迫”捏着鼻子”（或保持沉默）。毕竟，这些关税与共和党长期以来标榜的”自由市场和自由贸易”理念背道而驰。
但此次裁决对特朗普”独断专行”的策略构成重大打击，可能危及他的其他努力。大法官尼尔·戈萨奇在协同意见中似乎呼吁国会通过立法来处理这些问题。
[相关文章：最高法院驳回特朗普紧急关税权力，11分钟阅读]
而现在正值中期选举年，关税政策的潜在代价变得尤为突出。在最高法院裁定第一轮关税违宪之前，我们已经看到一些共和党人对特朗普这部分议程的耐心开始减弱。一些共和党人可能会认为，他们已经给了特朗普一个尝试的机会，现在是时候转向其他政策了。
事实上，周五我们看到，相对而言很少有共和党人像特朗普那样批评最高法院。
这并不意味着他们会突然在这个问题上大规模背离特朗普。特朗普是个骄傲的人，肯定不愿被视为屈服于最高法院或党内压力。
但如果他坚持继续推行大规模关税政策，他可能会”骑虎难下”——这或许是一个（政治上的）”礼物马”（即看似有利实则隐藏风险的机会）。
Supreme Court gives Trump — and the rest of the GOP — a gift in disguise
Analysis by Aaron Blake
1 hr 59 min ago
PUBLISHED Feb 21, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing held at the White House, on Friday.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
The Supreme Court on Friday dealt President Donald Trump perhaps the most significant rebuke of his second term. The justices, including two of the president’s appointees, struck down Trump’s signature economic policy: his global tariffs.
In the long run, the court might have saved him from himself — at least politically.
Some Republicans are outright praising the decision, and you can bet more are happy behind the scenes.
That’s because, while the decision is clearly a major setback for Trump’s agenda, it also strips him of tools that seemed to cause short-term economic damage to the country, and that were clearly doing short-term political damage to Trump’s party.
This is not the end of the tariffs story. Trump quickly signaled he’d launch 10% global tariffs under a different authority (which he said Saturday he was upping to 15%). He even claimed on Friday that the Supreme Court’s decision had actually made his ability to levy trade penalties “stronger,” somehow.
But that’s not actually true. Trump’s tariff powers have been significantly curtailed. And while Republicans have been happy to let him try to do things on his own, even when those things were powers delegated to Congress by the Constitution, this setback could also lead to some soul-searching in the GOP about whether to continue entertaining Trump’s trade gambits.
Whether any of them seize on this apparent opportunity to deescalate is the big question.
[Related article U.S. President Donald Trump greets Chief Justice of the United States John G. Roberts, Jr as he arrives to deliver an address to a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol on March 04, 2025 in Washington, DC. Win McNamee/Getty Images John Roberts ends Trump’s big Supreme Court winning streak 6 min read]
How the tariffs have hurt Trump
It was fortuitous that the Supreme Court’s decision came Friday. Just 90 minutes before it landed, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced the gross domestic product had grown at just a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. That made 2025 the second-worst year for GDP growth since 2016.
Last year was also one of the weakest jobs years in decades. And there is, of course, the inflation that finally dropped a bit in January but remains stubborn.
In other words, the stock market aside, the economy isn’t doing great.
It’s not clear how much the stagnancy is due to tariffs, specifically. But the uncertainty surrounding them and the extra costs they’ve created have clearly put a damper on an economic picture that wasn’t great to begin with.
At the very least, they gave Americans a reason to blame Trump for economic hardships. Trump voluntarily took ownership of a struggling economy, using a method that economists widely predicted would cause more problems, at least in the near term.
It’s not difficult to see why that cost Trump and the GOP. And cost them it did.
Shipping cranes stand above shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, with snow-covered mountains beyond, on Friday.
Mario Tama/Getty Images
Since Trump announced the global tariffs back on April 2, his net economic approval rating in Nate Silver’s averages has gone from plus-6 to minus-12.
And a CNN poll last month showed Americans disapproved of Trump on tariffs, 62%-37%. Even 25% of Republican-leaning voters disapproved.
How the Supreme Court hamstrung him
In an often-confusing press conference Friday afternoon, Trump pointed to how Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh’s dissent suggested Trump could simply move on to different tariff authorities.
And there are some available. Trump quickly seized on one of them, announcing the 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
“Now I’ll go the way I could have gone originally, which is even stronger than our original choice,” Trump claimed.
But that’s not true.
While there are multiple options available, there’s a reason Trump chose the initial path he did. If the court permitted him to wield tariffs under emergency authority, it would have given him much greater flexibility to quickly implement huge tariffs and make changes — often to punish or cajole other countries.
About the only limit was that Congress could vote to invalidate the emergencies. But vocal opposition to the tariffs didn’t come close to hitting a veto-proof majority.
By contrast, Section 122 limits tariffs to 15% and to a period of 150 days — after which Congress needs to extend them. Given majorities of both chambers have voted against Trump’s tariffs recently, that seems unlikely.
And it’s not even clear Trump can use this section, given it requires some kind of international payments problem.
Other tariff authorities require more of a process before the tariffs can be implemented.
Indeed, Chief Justice John Roberts in a footnote directly took issue with Kavanaugh’s claim.
“The cited statutes contain various combinations of procedural prerequisites, required agency determinations, and limits on the duration, amount, and scope of the tariffs they authorize,” Roberts said.
The US Supreme Court as seen on Friday.
Heather Diehl/Getty Images
Trump has pitched tariffs as revitalizing American manufacturing and giving him great leverage to craft trade deals with other countries. But the shorter shelf life and lower ceiling under Section 122 and more extensive processes involved in the alternatives means he has to confront limitations he wouldn’t have otherwise. And other countries will know he faces those restrictions, lessening his leverage.
It’ll be interesting to see if Trump decides it’s even worth it to try to truly go big on tariffs again, given those constraints.
All eyes on the GOP
It will also be interesting to see if this might embolden the many tariff-skeptical but quiet congressional Republicans who want to turn the page on this chapter.
Many Republicans have spent the last year holding their noses (and tongues) as Trump imposed tariffs. Those tariffs, after all, ran afoul of the GOP’s longstanding attempts to brand itself as the party of free markets and free trade.
But the ruling is a major setback for Trump’s go-it-alone approach that could imperil his other efforts. In his concurrence, Justice Neil Gorsuch seemed to plead with Congress to start handling these matters with legislation.
[Related article The US Supreme Court is reflected in a puddle on Friday. Heather Diehl/Getty Images Takeaways: Supreme Court stands up to Donald Trump on emergency tariffs 11 min read]
And we’re now in a midterm election year, when the potential cost of these tariffs looms large. Even before the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the first round of tariffs, we started to see some signs of waning patience with this portion of Trump’s agenda. Some of these Republicans might reason they gave Trump a chance to make it work, and now it’s time to move on.
Indeed, on Friday we saw relatively few Republicans criticize the court like Trump did.
That doesn’t mean they’re going to suddenly break with Trump en masse on this subject. And Trump is a proud man who surely doesn’t want to be seen as capitulating to the Supreme Court or pressure from his party.
But if he does keep trying to go big on tariffs, he could be looking a (political) gift horse in the mouth.
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