2026年2月20日 13:46 UTC（路透社）
一名购物者在美国华盛顿特区一家杂货店的乳制品区前走过，该区域在预计将席卷美国的冬季风暴来临前部分货架空置。路透社/内森·霍华德/文件照片 购买许可权，新标签页打开
WASHINGTON, 2月20日（路透社）- 美国潜在通胀在12月的涨幅超出预期，且1月有进一步加速的迹象，这将增强美联储不会在6月前降息的预期。
美国商务部经济分析局周五公布，剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后的个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数在11月未修正地上涨0.2%后，12月上升0.4%。路透社调查的经济学家此前预测，所谓的核心PCE价格指数将攀升0.3%。在截至12月的12个月内，核心PCE通胀率从11月的2.8%上升至3.0%。
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这是美国央行追踪的2%通胀目标的衡量指标之一。该数据包含在周五发布的第四季度初步国内生产总值（GDP）报告中。
尽管美国劳工统计局上周公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告显示1月通胀温和上升，但服务通胀存在一定粘性。经济学家还指出，1月法律服务价格出现激增。
巴克莱经济学家普贾·斯里拉姆表示：”这一类别（劳工统计局未公布，但可推算）1月环比增长12.0%，仅这一项就使核心PCE通胀率增加约10个基点。不过，这一类别通常波动极大，几乎没有前瞻性参考价值。”
经济学家估计，1月核心PCE通胀率可能环比增长高达0.4%，同比涨幅将达到3.1%。
这些预测可能会在下周五公布的1月生产者价格指数（PPI）报告后发生变化。1月PCE通胀数据将于3月13日发布。由于去年政府停摆，这些报告均已推迟。
12月PCE价格指数环比上涨0.4%，11月为0.2%。PCE通胀率同比上涨2.9%，11月为2.8%。
政府还报告称，占经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出在12月增长0.4%，11月同样增长了这一幅度。经通胀调整后，消费者支出增长0.1%，为第一季度的增长设定了缓慢轨迹。
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US PCE inflation heats up in December
February 20, 2026 1:46 PM UTC / Reuters
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A shopper walks past a partially empty dairy section at a grocery store ahead of an expected winter storm spreading across the United States, in Washington, D.C., U.S., January 24, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) – Underlying U.S. inflation increased more than expected in December, and signs are pointing to a further acceleration in January, which would strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before June.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.4% after an unrevised 0.2% gain in November, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the so-called core PCE price index climbing 0.3%. In the 12 months through December, core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% after increasing 2.8% in November.
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It is one of the measures tracked by the U.S. central bank for its 2% inflation target. The data was included in the advance gross domestic product report for the fourth quarter published on Friday.
Though the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index report published last week showed a moderate increase in January, there was some stickiness in services inflation. Economists also noted a surge in legal services in January.
“This category, which the BLS does not publish, but can be backed out, registered a 12.0% month-on-month increase in January, which alone is worth about 10 basis points on core PCE inflation,” said Pooja Sriram, an economist at Barclays. “That said, this tends to be a very volatile category, with very little forward-looking inference.”
Economists estimated core PCE inflation could increase by as much as 0.4% on a monthly basis in January, which would translate to a year-on-year advance of 3.1%.
Those forecasts could change after January’s Producer Price Index report next Friday. January’s PCE inflation data will be released on March 13. The reports have been delayed by last year’s shutdown of the government.
The PCE price index increased 0.4% in December after rising 0.2% in November. PCE inflation increased 2.9% year-on-year after gaining 2.8% in November.
The government also reported that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.4% in December after increasing by the same margin in November. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending gained 0.1%, setting it on a slow growth trajectory heading into the first quarter.
Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
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