2026年2月20日 美国东部时间下午3:27 / 路透社 / 霍华德·施奈德报道
华盛顿，2月20日（路透社） – 在最新美国经济增长数据公布前，总统唐纳德·特朗普似乎提前暗示了令人失望的年终经济增长读数，并批评民主党在去年秋天的长期政府停摆中所扮演的角色，正是这一停摆拖累了经济的整体产出数据。
“民主党停摆使美国GDP至少减少了两个百分点。这就是他们再次以小规模形式这么做的原因。不要停摆！此外，更低的利率。‘反应迟缓’的鲍威尔是最糟糕的！！！总统DJT”，特朗普在新政府数据公布前半个多小时于社交媒体上发文。新数据显示，美国经济在去年最后三个月的年增长率仅为1.4%，而2025年10月1日至11月12日持续43天的联邦政府停摆估计使这一数字降低了1.15个百分点。
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总统通常会提前收到一些经济数据，但根据惯例，民选官员会在这些报告公布后才发表评论，通常是在上午8:30。他呼吁降低利率已成为老生常谈，而美联储目前正等待特朗普任命的新任主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）在现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的任期于5月结束后接任。
上季度联邦支出下降16.6%，是自20世纪70年代初以来最大降幅。
特朗普的提前发文似乎恰逢股票指数期货交易量激增，但在他发表评论后，市场价格和债券收益率几乎没有变化。
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白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）在回应有关特朗普评论尚未发布的数据的问题时，将重点放在了数据中隐含的私营部门增长增强这一点上。
“今天的GDP报告显示，特朗普总统继续推动以私营部门为主导的强劲经济增长，消费和投资表现强劲”，他表示，并辩称，如果单独看私营部门的数据，“远超”其他人对美国经济增长的预测。
“美国的经济复苏将在2026年进一步加速”，他说。
显示停摆的拖累效应
事实上，政府停摆的影响通常被视为暂时性的，类似于暴风雨对经济增长的影响——仅在某一时间段降低增长，未来会得到弥补。例如，错过工资的政府工作人员最终会收到欠薪，并要么弥补延迟的支出，要么补充减少的储蓄。
去年秋天的政府停摆是特朗普、共和党人和民主党人在包括医疗保健资金和延长税收抵免（以帮助中低收入家庭负担私人医疗保险）等问题上对峙的结果。目前，国土安全部部分部门因移民和海关执法局的资金问题而处于停摆状态。
第四季度GDP增长数据低于分析师预期的3%，2025年全年增长率为2.2%，低于2024年（拜登总统任期的最后一个完整年份）的2.8%，也低于特朗普政府官员此前预期的3%的全年数字。
2025年大部分时间，政府支出都对经济构成拖累，而这是在政府的推动下发生的。特朗普新任期的头几个月包括大幅削减一些联邦机构，并大规模削减联邦雇员。
根据美国经济分析局的最新估计，联邦支出的变化在去年前三个月使经济增长降低了0.37个百分点，在4月至6月期间降低了0.35个百分点。
但年底的拖累更为显著，是1994年以来最严重的。
霍华德·施奈德报道；安德里亚·里奇编辑
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Trump nodded to low GDP numbers in social post ahead of public release, blaming shutdown
February 20, 2026 3:27 PM UTC / Reuters / By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON, Feb 20 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump seemingly flagged a disappointing end-of-year reading on U.S. economic growth before it was made public, criticizing the role Democrats played in an extended government shutdown last fall that pulled down the economy’s headline output numbers.
“The Democrat Shutdown cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP. That’s why they are doing it, in mini form, again. No Shutdowns! Also, LOWER INTEREST RATES. “Two Late” Powell is the WORST!!! President DJT,” Trump said on social media more than half an hour before the release of new government data that showed the economy grew at just a 1.4% annual rate over the final three months of the year, with the 43-day federal shutdown from October 1, 2025, to November 12, 2025 lowering that by an estimated 1.15 percentage points.
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The president receives some economic data in advance, but elected officials have by tradition withheld comment until those reports are made public, often at 8:30 a.m. His call for lower interest rates has become a common refrain, with the Federal Reserve now awaiting a transition to a new chair, Kevin Warsh, named by Trump to take over after current Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.
The 16.6% drop in federal spending last quarter was the biggest decline since the early 1970s.
Trump’s early post appeared to coincide with a jump in trading volumes in equity index futures but there was little change in market prices or bond yields following his comments.
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White House spokesman Kush Desai, responding to questions about Trump’s commenting on data that had not yet been released, focused on the implied shift in the data to stronger private sector growth.
“Today’s GDP report showed that President Trump continues to deliver robust private sector-led economic growth with strong consumption and investment,” he said, arguing that if isolated the private sector numbers “smashed” estimates by others of U.S. growth.
“America’s economic comeback is set to only accelerate in 2026,” he said.
shows drag from shutdown
Indeed the impact of government shutdowns is typically seen as temporary, similar to the impact of storms that lower economic growth in one time period only to see it made up in the future. Government workers who missed paychecks, for example, eventually receive back salary and either make up for delayed spending or replenish diminished savings.
The government shutdown last fall was the result of a standoff among Trump, Republicans and Democrats over, among other issues, healthcare funding and the extension of tax credits to help middle- and lower-income families afford private health insurance. Parts of the Department of Homeland Security are currently shut down in a standoff over funding for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.
The fourth-quarter GDP growth figure was short of the 3% expected by analysts and put full-year growth for 2025 at 2.2%, less than the 2.8% achieved in 2024, President Joe Biden’s final full year in office, and below the 3% full-year figure Trump administration officials said they anticipated.
Government spending was a drag on the economy for much of 2025, and at the administration’s instigation. The first months of Trump’s new term in office involved deep cuts to some federal agencies and a broad effort to cull federal workers.
According to the latest estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, changes in federal spending lowered economic growth by 0.37 percentage points in the first three months of last year, and by 0.35 percentage points from April through June.
But the drag at the end of the year was more notable, the largest since 1994.
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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