2026年2月17日 18:03 UTC / 路透社
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第1项，共2项 2025年7月28日，美国加利福尼亚州恩西尼塔斯一处多单元住宅项目中，一名建筑工人正在工作。路透社/ Mike Blake
[1/2]2025年7月28日，美国加利福尼亚州恩西尼塔斯一处多单元住宅项目中，一名建筑工人正在工作。路透社/ Mike Blake 购买许可权，在新标签页中打开
2月17日（路透社）——旧金山联邦储备银行周二发布的最新研究显示，美国近期非法移民人数下降已导致就业增长放缓，尤其是在建筑和制造业领域，且这些趋势可能会持续。
该研究考察了2021年非法移民快速增长以及2024年3月开始的放缓过程，发现当地就业增长与移民趋势同步增长后又萎缩。考虑到唐纳德·特朗普总统第二任期内持续打击移民，这些发现可能对就业市场前景和住房可负担性产生重要影响。
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上周公布的就业数据修正显示，2025年美国经济仅新增181,000个就业岗位，远低于2024年（拜登总统任期最后完整年份）新增的1,459,000个岗位。经济学家将就业增长放缓与移民人数大幅下降联系起来，而这项最新研究通过对非法工人流入及对当地劳动力市场影响的详细分析，进一步证实了这一关联。
美联储经济学家丹尼尔·威尔逊（Daniel Wilson）和周小青（Xiaoqing Zhou）写道：”平均而言，非法移民流入放缓最显著的地区，建筑、制造业和其他服务业的就业增长放缓幅度也最大。建筑业的影响尤为显著，因为这表明近几个月非法移民工人流入（UIWF）的减少可能正在减缓住宅建筑建设，进而降低住房供应增长速度。”
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特朗普政府表示，减少移民将惠及美国工人，并通过降低住房需求来提高住房可负担性。
研究作者写道：”只要非法移民工人流入持续下降，美国就业增长可能面临持续下行压力。”
报道：安·萨菲尔（Ann Saphir）；编辑：安德里亚·里奇（Andrea Ricci）
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Drop in unauthorized immigration slows job growth, SF Fed paper finds
February 17, 2026 6:03 PM UTC / Reuters
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Item 1 of 2 A construction worker is shown at work on a multi-unit residential housing project in Encinitas, California, U.S., July 28, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake
[1/2]A construction worker is shown at work on a multi-unit residential housing project in Encinitas, California, U.S., July 28, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Feb 17 (Reuters) – The recent drop in unauthorized immigration to the United States has slowed employment growth, particularly in construction and manufacturing, and those trends are likely to continue, new research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve published on Tuesday shows.
The study looked at the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrants beginning in 2021 and the slowdown that began in March 2024, and found that local job growth grew, and then shrank, in lockstep with those immigration trends. The findings could have important implications for the job market outlook and for housing affordability, given the ongoing crackdown on immigration during Donald Trump’s second term as president.
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Revisions to jobs data published last week showed the U.S. economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, a fraction of the 1.459 million jobs added in 2024, the final full year of former President Joe Biden’s term. Economists have linked the slowdown to the sharp drop in immigration, but this latest study helps make that link concrete by its detailed analysis of unauthorized worker inflows and the impact on local labor markets.
“On average, places experiencing the biggest slowdowns in unauthorized immigration saw the biggest slowdowns in employment growth in construction, manufacturing, and other services,” wrote Fed economists Daniel Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou. “The effect for the construction sector is particularly notable, because it suggests that falling UIWF (unauthorized immigrant worker flows) in recent months could be slowing residential construction and hence slowing down the growth of housing supply.”
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The Trump administration has said the reduction in immigration will benefit American workers, and will help make housing more affordable by reducing demand for homes.
“U.S. employment growth is likely to face continued downward pressure as long as the ongoing declines in unauthorized immigrant worker flows continue,” the study’s authors wrote.
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Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea Ricci
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