发布时间：2026年2月16日，美国东部时间下午3:46 / 更新时间：2026年2月16日，美国东部时间下午4:48 / 来源：CNN
作者：娜塔莎·伯特兰、扎卡里·科恩、海莉·布里茨基、凯莉·阿特伍德、詹妮弗·汉斯勒、艾弗里·施米茨、穆罕默德·陶菲克
美国军方正在中东地区继续大幅增派空中和海军力量，为周二在日内瓦与伊朗举行的计划中的高风险谈判做准备。多位知情人士向美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）透露，这些军事力量的部署既旨在威慑德黑兰，又为防止核项目谈判失败后对伊朗境内发动打击保留选项。
据熟悉相关调动的消息人士称，驻扎在英国的美国空军资产，包括加油机和战斗机，正在向中东地区靠拢。
一位美国官员表示，美国还在继续向该地区运送防空系统。一位知情人士透露，几个原本预计在未来几周轮换出该地区的美军部队的任务期限已被延长。根据飞行跟踪数据，近几周已有数十架美军运输机将装备运至约旦、巴林和沙特阿拉伯。
周五晚间，根据开源空中交通通信信息，多架战斗机也获得了进入约旦领空的外交许可。卫星图像显示，自1月25日以来，12架美国F-15攻击机已部署在约旦的穆瓦法克·萨尔蒂空军基地。
更广泛地说，开源飞行数据显示，已有超过250架美国货运飞机进入该地区。
唐纳德·特朗普总统数周以来一直威胁要对伊朗采取军事行动，始于上月他警告伊朗领导人，若政府不停止镇压抗议者，他将下令发动攻击。周五，他声称“政权更迭将是伊朗可能发生的最好事情”。
军事资产的集结以及特朗普和政府高级成员强调政权更迭更可取的态度，使该地区局势紧张，也增加了周二谈判的风险。据透露，瑞士的谈判预计由特朗普的特使史蒂夫·维特科夫和他的女婿贾里德·库什纳代表美国方领导，伊朗则由外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格希代表。
无人知晓政权更迭后谁将掌权
但据两位知情人士透露，特朗普政府似乎仍不清楚如果推翻伊朗政权，接下来会发生什么。上月末，国务卿马尔科·卢比奥在国会听证会上也表达了同样的困惑，他告诉议员们“没人知道”政权倒台后谁会掌权。
消息人士称，短期内，强硬派的伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）可能会填补任何权力真空，这是美国情报界的看法。
一位熟悉美国近期相关情报报告的消息人士表示：“伊斯兰革命卫队无疑地位突出，运作凌驾于常规军事官僚体系之上，但很难准确预测政权崩溃情景下会发生什么。”
在美国特朗普第一任期内，美军暗杀伊朗最有权势的军事指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼少将后，美国对伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的层级结构缺乏清晰认知。
消息人士称，尽管美国情报官员在上月成功抓捕委内瑞拉前总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗前，对委内瑞拉的权力动态有很好的了解，但对于伊朗最高领袖的潜在替代者是谁（如果有的话），他们缺乏同样的洞察力。
多位消息人士表示，几周前伊朗抗议活动达到高潮时，有合理理由考虑采取军事行动。当时，美国发动打击可能在短期内有利于反对派，为伊朗人有机推翻政府提供动力，存在一个短暂的窗口。
现在这些消息人士质疑特朗普是否“错过了时机”，并质疑几周后的军事打击是否能实现上月本可能达成的目标。
然而，当时美军资产集中在加勒比地区而非中东，限制了政府的选择，并引起以色列的担忧——以色列担心如果伊朗报复性地用弹道导弹袭击他们，以色列将面临暴露的风险。
此后，特朗普将潜在攻击的理由转向伊朗不愿停止铀浓缩活动。
“我认为他们会成功的，”特朗普周五谈到即将到来的谈判时表示，“如果他们不成功，那将是伊朗非常糟糕的一天。”
与上月不同，美国现在在该地区部署了“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航母打击群，“杰拉尔德·福特”号航母打击群也在途中，战斗机中队和加油机正迅速重新部署。
“如果我们未能达成协议，我们将需要它们（这些军事力量），”特朗普周五在被问及为何福特号驶向该地区时表示。
此次军事集结为特朗普下令发动攻击提供了广泛的打击选项。例如，与航母一同航行的“宙斯盾”驱逐舰可携带数十枚战斧巡航导弹，射程达1000英里，配备1000磅常规弹头。美国海军航母打击群通常还配备可发射战斧导弹的攻击潜艇。F-35和F-15E战斗机可携带多种精确制导炸弹和空对地导弹。
据多位消息人士透露，潜在的打击目标包括伊斯兰革命卫队总部和伊朗核设施以外的其他军事设施。还有消息称，美国和以色列可能进行联合行动，这可能类似于去年夏天的“午夜锤子”行动，当时美国在为期12天的以色列-伊朗战争末期打击了伊朗核设施。
与伊朗达成协议困难重重
特朗普周末表示，美国“不希望任何铀浓缩”，暗示他不会接受允许伊朗进行低水平铀浓缩的协议。由于伊朗坚持认为铀浓缩是其权利，消息人士称谈判可能没有空间。
但消息人士也指出，谈判前的强硬立场可能会发生变化。
伊朗政府还可能通过经济激励等方式试图避免美国攻击。一位消息人士透露，在去年多轮美伊谈判中，曾讨论过与核协议挂钩的可能商业交易，包括允许美国优先开发伊朗的石油、天然气和稀土资源。预计这一话题将在此次谈判中再次被提出。
联合国核监督机构负责人拉斐尔·格罗西周一在日内瓦与阿拉格希会面，双方称进行了“深入的技术讨论”，为周二的关键核谈判做准备。
在公开讲话中，卢比奥坚称特朗普倾向于外交解决方案，但他也多次强调，达成此类协议将非常困难。
“伊朗最终的治理和决策是由什叶派神职人员——激进的什叶派神职人员——决定的，明白吗？这些人根据纯粹的神学做出政策决定。所以，与伊朗达成协议很难。”卢比奥周一在匈牙利布达佩斯的新闻发布会上表示。
当被问及周日政府是否会在决定攻击伊朗或试图推翻伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊时通知国会，卢比奥没有明确承诺。
“我们会遵守法律要求，这取决于具体情况和导致的结果。但目前，我们正在进行谈判，”他在斯洛伐克的新闻发布会上表示，“如果情况发生变化，所有人都会清楚。而且，无论法律要求我们做什么，我们都会照做。”
包括波斯湾阿拉伯国家在内的地区盟友对美国军事行动可能使地区局势动荡深感担忧。据知情人士透露，他们曾游说推迟军事行动，为外交争取更多时间。
“所有人都在反对发动打击，”一位地区外交官表示，同时补充说，以色列是唯一敦促美国发动攻击的地区参与者。
与此同时，伊朗在日内瓦谈判前不到24小时进行了进一步军事演习。周一，伊朗官方伊斯兰共和国广播公司报道称，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队已从陆地、空中和海上对伊朗和阿联酋存在长期边境争端的三个岛屿发动了“英勇防御”演习。
报道称，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的无人机已部署在伊朗最南端，随时准备应对任何侵略者。
伊朗武装部队总参谋长阿卜杜勒拉希姆·穆萨维周日警告称，“特朗普应该知道，他将陷入一场会带来惨痛教训的冲突，其结果将确保他不再在全球范围内叫嚣威胁。”
US increases military pressure on Iran ahead of high-stakes talks
Published Feb 16, 2026, 3:46 PM ET / Updated Feb 16, 2026, 4:48 PM ET / CNN
By Natasha Bertrand, Zachary Cohen, Haley Britzky, Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Hansler, Avery Schmitz, Mohammed Tawfeeq
The US military is continuing a significant buildup of air and naval assets in the Middle East ahead of planned talks with Iran in Geneva on Tuesday. The pieces are being moved into place both to intimidate Tehran and to have options to strike inside the country should negotiations over its nuclear program fail, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
US Air Force assets based in the United Kingdom, including refueling tankers and fighter jets, are being repositioned closer to the Middle East, according to sources familiar with the movements.
The US is also continuing to flow air defense systems to the region, according to a US official, and several US military units deployed in the region that were expected to rotate out in the coming weeks have had their orders extended, said one source familiar with the matter. Dozens of US military cargo planes have transported equipment from the US to Jordan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, according to flight-tracking data.
On Friday evening, multiple fighter aircraft were also given diplomatic clearance to enter Jordanian airspace, according to open-source air traffic communications. Satellite images show 12 US F-15 attack planes have been positioned at Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base since January 25.
More broadly, open-source flight data reveals there have been over 250 US cargo flights into the region.
President Donald Trump has been threatening military action against Iran for weeks, beginning last month when he warned Iranian leaders that he was prepared to order an attack if the government did not stop killing protesters. And on Friday, he said he believes regime change “would be the best thing that could happen” in Iran.
The buildup of military assets and emphasis by Trump and senior members of the administration that regime change is preferable has the region on edge and increases the stakes for Tuesday’s talks. The Switzerland talks are expected to be led by Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, on the US side, with Iran represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
‘No one knows’ who would take over
But the administration still does not appear to have a clear understanding of what would come next if it removed the Iranian regime, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this during a congressional hearing late last month, telling lawmakers that “no one knows” who would take over if the regime fell.
The likely alternatives could be even more problematic for the US and its allies, sources said. In the short term, the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would likely fill any leadership void, the US intelligence community believes, according to sources.
The IRGC “is definitely prominent and functions above the standard military bureaucracy, but it is hard to predict exactly what would happen in a regime collapse scenario,” said one source familiar with recent US intelligence reporting on the matter.
The US also lacks clear insight into the IRGC’s hierarchy following the US assassination of Iran’s most powerful military commander, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, during Trump’s first term.
Whereas US intelligence officials had a very good understanding of the power dynamics in Venezuela before the US captured then-President Nicolás Maduro last month, they lack the same insight into who, if anyone, would constitute a viable replacement for Iran’s supreme leader, sources said.
Multiple sources said there were legitimate reasons to consider kinetic action several weeks ago at the height of the Iranian protests. At that point, there was a small window of time when US strikes could have potentially tipped the balance in favor of the opposition, providing momentum for Iranians to overthrow their government organically.
Those sources now wonder whether Trump “missed the moment” and question whether military strikes weeks later would accomplish what they could have last month.
At the time, however, US military assets were concentrated in the Caribbean rather than the Middle East, limiting the administration’s options and worrying the Israelis, who were concerned they would be left exposed if Iran were to retaliate by attacking them with ballistic missiles.
Since then, Trump has shifted his rationale for a potential attack, framing it around Iran’s reluctance to stop enriching uranium for its nuclear program.
“I think they’ll be successful,” Trump said Friday of the upcoming talks. “If they’re not, it’s going to be a very bad day for Iran.”
Unlike last month, the US now has the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the region, the USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group on the way, and fighter jet squadrons and tankers being rapidly repositioned.
“In case we don’t make a deal, we’ll need it,” Trump said Friday, when asked why the Ford was headed to the region.
The buildup gives the US military extensive strike options should Trump order an attack. Guided-missile destroyers steaming with the carriers, for example, can carry dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 1,000 miles and wielding 1,000-pound conventional warheads. US Navy carrier strike groups usually operate with an attack submarine that can also launch Tomahawks. F-35 and F-15E fighter jets can carry an array of guided bombs and air-to-surface missiles.
Among the potential targets for strikes are the headquarters of the IRGC and other military installations beyond Iranian nuclear sites, according to multiple sources. There is also some discussion about the US and Israel conducting joint operations, the sources said. Those could resemble Operation Midnight Hammer last summer, when the US struck Iranian nuclear sites toward the end of the 12-day Israel-Iran war, they added.
‘It’s hard to do a deal with Iran’
Trump said over the weekend that the US “doesn’t want any enrichment,” indicating that he will not settle for a deal that allows even low-level uranium enrichment by Iran. Given Iran’s position that enrichment is its right, sources said there may not be space for negotiation.
But the sources also noted that hard-line positions going into negotiations can always change.
There are also other ways the Iranian government could try to ward off a US attack, including with economic incentives. During multiple rounds of US-Iran talks last year, there were discussions about possible business deals that could be struck in conjunction with a nuclear agreement, including granting the US privileged access to developing Iran’s oil, gas and rare earths resources, one source said. That topic is expected to be raised again, this person added.
The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, met with Araghchi in Geneva on Monday for what both described as “in-depth technical discussions,” as preparations intensify for the crucial nuclear negotiations Tuesday.
In public remarks, Rubio has maintained that Trump prefers a diplomatic resolution. But he has also repeatedly stressed that such a deal will be difficult.
“Iran ultimately is governed and its decisions are governed by Shia clerics — radical Shia clerics, okay? These people make policy decisions on the basis of pure theology. That’s how they make their decisions. So, it’s hard to do a deal with Iran,” Rubio said at a press conference in Budapest, Hungary, on Monday.
Asked Sunday whether the administration would inform Congress if it decides to attack Iran or attempt to remove Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Rubio would not commit.
“We’ll follow whatever the law is on it, and it depends on the circumstance it would lead to. But right now, we’re talking about negotiations,” he said at a press conference in Slovakia.
“If that changes, it’ll be obvious to everyone. And obviously, whatever the law requires us to do, we’ll do,” he added.
Regional allies including the Arab states in the Persian Gulf are deeply concerned that US military action could destabilize the region. They have lobbied for holding off on military action to give diplomacy more time, according to sources familiar with the talks.
“Everybody is pushing against a strike,” said a diplomat from the region. This person added that Israel is the only regional player that has been urging the US to attack.
Iran, meanwhile, held further military exercises less than 24 hours ahead of the Geneva talks. On Monday, Iran’s official Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported that the IRGC had launched a “valiant defense” of three Iranian islands by land, air and sea that are the subject of a longtime border dispute between Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
According to the report, IRGC drones are positioned at Iran’s southernmost point, ready to confront any aggressors.
Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, warned Sunday that “Trump should know that he would be entering a confrontation that gives harsh lessons, the outcome of which would ensure that he no longer bellows threats around the world,” according to state-run Press TV.
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